Economy in Brief: May 2021

• Gasoline prices edge lower w/w, but remain elevated this year. • Crude oil prices decline to three-week low. • Natural gas prices ease. Retail gasoline prices eased to $3.02 per gallon (+54.1% y/y) in the week ended May 24 from [...]

• Overall activity abates after recovery from weather-related setbacks. • Three of four components, however, indicate positive growth. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index fell to 0.24 in April from an [...]

The EMU PMI has a 90.6 percentile queue standing which tells us that the May composite value has been this high or higher 9.4% of the time since December of 2016. The percentile column places this month’s value in the high-low range [...]

• Existing home sales decline to lowest level in almost a year. • Inventory of unsold homes rose seasonally, but generally remains low. • Prices surge to record high. Sales of existing homes weakened during April for the third [...]

• Leaders' improvement is broad-based. • Coincident indicators increase. • Lagging indicators suggest less economic slack. The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators strengthened 1.6% (17.0% y/y) during [...]

• Headline index reverses two months of increase. • Components are mixed m/m but continue to indicate expansion. • Prices paid continue to strengthen. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Factory Sector Business Conditions Index [...]

CBI overview and Orders The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey for the industrial sector in the UK saw its total orders reading push up to a +17 net reading in May. This net index (a plus/minus diffusion index) is at its [...]

• Initial claims fall to yet another pandemic low. • But state continuing claims and insured unemployment rate rise. • PUA and PEUC continuing claims turn back down. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 34,000 in the week [...]