Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060526c.jpg" width="353">
The University of Michigan reported that for all of May, consumer sentiment held steady at the preliminary level indicated two weeks ago. Nevertheless, sentiment fell 9.5% m/m to 79.1, the lowest level since last October. Consensus expectations had been for some improvement to 79.4.
During the last ten years there has been a 77% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
Expectations for the economy dropped 7.1% m/m as higher gasoline prices boosted the twelve month mean expected inflation rate to 4.7% versus 3.6% expected in February. That dragged expectations for personal finances down 10.4% m/m and expected business conditions down 5.8%.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060526d.jpg" width="353">
The current conditions index fell 12.0% m/m, the same as the mid-month read. The current index of personal finances dropped 14.3% (-6.4% y/y) and the reading of buying conditions for large household goods dropped 10.9% (-9.8% y/y).
Consumers&#39; assessment of gov&#39;t economic policy fell 8.3% m/m (-10.5% y/y) and is at nearly half the level of early 2000.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM">University of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col">May (final)</th>
<th scope="col">May (prelim.</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>79.1</td>
<td>79.0</td>
<td>87.4</td>
<td>-9.0%</td>
<td>88.6</td>
<td>95.2</td>
<td>87.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Current Conditions</td>
<td>96.1</td>
<td>96.2</td>
<td>109.2</td>
<td>-8.4%</td>
<td>105.9</td>
<td>105.6</td>
<td>97.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Expectations</td>
<td>68.2</td>
<td>68.0</td>
<td>73.4</td>
<td>-9.4%</td>
<td>77.4</td>
<td>88.5</td>
<td>81.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The University of Michigan reported that for all of May, consumer sentiment held steady at the preliminary level indicated two weeks ago. Nevertheless, sentiment fell 9.5% m/m to 79.1, the lowest level since last October. Consensus [...]

U.S. Consumers' Funk Didn't Deepen in Late May

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060526a.jpg" width="353">
Personal income rose 0.5% last month following a downwardly revised 0.5% gain during March. The latest compared to Consensus expectations for a 0.7% increase.
Wage &amp; salary disbursements soared 0.9% (5.3% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.5% March increase. Private sector wages jumped 1.0% (5.7% y/y) as strong gains were logged in manufacturing (0.7%, 2.8% y/y) and in service producing industries (1.1%, 6.1% y/y).
Government transfer payments for health insurance &amp; disability rose 0.6% (11.4% y/y) and a March surge was revised down.
Disposable personal income increased 0.4% (4.7% y/y) but a revised 0.4% gain in March was half that initially reported. Personal taxes jumped 1.6% (10.7% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060526b.jpg" width="353">
Adjusted for price inflation, disposable personal income fell 0.1% (+1.7% y/y) following a revised no change during March that was initially reported up 0.5%. Real disposable income per capita fell 0.2% (+0.8% y/y), the third m/m decline this year.
Personal consumption matched Consensus expectations for a 0.6% rise. Adjusted for price inflation, spending rose 0.1% (3.1% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Real spending on gasoline &amp; oil jumped 1.7% (0.8% y/y) following two months of decline.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.5% boosted by an 8.7% (19.1% y/y) surge in gasoline &amp; oil prices. Less food &amp; energy the chain price index increased 0.2% (2.1% y/y), down from the 0.3% gain in March. Prices for clothing &amp; shoes rose 0.4% (-0.7% y/y) but furniture &amp; household equipment prices fell another 0.4% (-4.8% y/y).
The personal savings rate was a negative 1.6% in April and recent figures were revised more negative.
The Trend Growth Rate of Employment: Past, Present and Future from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is available <a href="http://www.kansascityfed.org/PUBLICAT/ECONREV/PDF/1q06clar.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E711/@E71102/@E71102.HTM">Disposition of Personal Income</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Personal Income</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Personal Consumption</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Savings Rate</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>-0.2% (April &#39;05)</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">PCE Chain Price Index</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Less food &amp; energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

Personal income rose 0.5% last month following a downwardly revised 0.5% gain during March. The latest compared to Consensus expectations for a 0.7% increase. Wage & salary disbursements soared 0.9% (5.3% y/y) following an upwardly [...]

U.S. Personal Income Gain Light, Wages Soared, Prices Up

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060526a.jpg" width="353">
Personal income rose 0.5% last month following a downwardly revised 0.5% gain during March. The latest compared to Consensus expectations for a 0.7% increase.
Wage &amp; salary disbursements soared 0.9% (5.3% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.5% March increase. Private sector wages jumped 1.0% (5.7% y/y) as strong gains were logged in manufacturing (0.7%, 2.8% y/y) and in service producing industries (1.1%, 6.1% y/y).
Government transfer payments for health insurance &amp; disability rose 0.6% (11.4% y/y) and a March surge was revised down.
Disposable personal income increased 0.4% (4.7% y/y) but a revised 0.4% gain in March was half that initially reported. Personal taxes jumped 1.6% (10.7% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060526b.jpg" width="353">
Adjusted for price inflation, disposable personal income fell 0.1% (+1.7% y/y) following a revised no change during March that was initially reported up 0.5%. Real disposable income per capita fell 0.2% (+0.8% y/y), the third m/m decline this year.
Personal consumption matched Consensus expectations for a 0.6% rise. Adjusted for price inflation, spending rose 0.1% (3.1% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Real spending on gasoline &amp; oil jumped 1.7% (0.8% y/y) following two months of decline.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.5% boosted by an 8.7% (19.1% y/y) surge in gasoline &amp; oil prices. Less food &amp; energy the chain price index increased 0.2% (2.1% y/y), down from the 0.3% gain in March. Prices for clothing &amp; shoes rose 0.4% (-0.7% y/y) but furniture &amp; household equipment prices fell another 0.4% (-4.8% y/y).
The personal savings rate was a negative 1.6% in April and recent figures were revised more negative.
The Trend Growth Rate of Employment: Past, Present and Future from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is available <a href="http://www.kansascityfed.org/PUBLICAT/ECONREV/PDF/1q06clar.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E711/@E71102/@E71102.HTM">Disposition of Personal Income</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Personal Income</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Personal Consumption</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Savings Rate</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>-0.2% (April &#39;05)</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">PCE Chain Price Index</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Less food &amp; energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Consumers' Funk Didn't Deepen in Late May 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 26, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060526c.jpg" width="353">
The University of Michigan reported that for all of May, consumer sentiment held steady at the preliminary level indicated two weeks ago. Nevertheless, sentiment fell 9.5% m/m to 79.1, the lowest level since last October. Consensus expectations had been for some improvement to 79.4.
During the last ten years there has been a 77% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
Expectations for the economy dropped 7.1% m/m as higher gasoline prices boosted the twelve month mean expected inflation rate to 4.7% versus 3.6% expected in February. That dragged expectations for personal finances down 10.4% m/m and expected business conditions down 5.8%.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060526d.jpg" width="353">
The current conditions index fell 12.0% m/m, the same as the mid-month read. The current index of personal finances dropped 14.3% (-6.4% y/y) and the reading of buying conditions for large household goods dropped 10.9% (-9.8% y/y).
Consumers&#39; assessment of gov&#39;t economic policy fell 8.3% m/m (-10.5% y/y) and is at nearly half the level of early 2000.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM">University of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col">May (final)</th>
<th scope="col">May (prelim.</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>79.1</td>
<td>79.0</td>
<td>87.4</td>
<td>-9.0%</td>
<td>88.6</td>
<td>95.2</td>
<td>87.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Current Conditions</td>
<td>96.1</td>
<td>96.2</td>
<td>109.2</td>
<td>-8.4%</td>
<td>105.9</td>
<td>105.6</td>
<td>97.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Expectations</td>
<td>68.2</td>
<td>68.0</td>
<td>73.4</td>
<td>-9.4%</td>
<td>77.4</td>
<td>88.5</td>
<td>81.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Japan's Net Investment Position Eased in 2005 as the Value of Foreign Investment Surged 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> May 26, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060526e.jpg" width="353">
The Bank of Japan today reported on Japan&#39;s international investment position for year-end 2005. Total assets abroad stood at &yen;506.2 trillion, up 16.7% from the end of 2004. All of the major asset categories climbed by significant amounts, such as direct investment abroad, which was up 18.2%, and holdings of equity securities, which rose 26.9%.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060526f.jpg" width="353">
We find it interesting that both of the equity components, direct investment and equity securities holdings, constitute only moderate amounts of total assets abroad. Equities were 5.6% of total international assets at the end of 1995; while they have increased, they still constitute just 9.5% of Japanese investors&#39; holdings abroad. Direct investment has ranged between 8.4% and 10.4% of total assets over the 11-year history of these data; at the end of 2005, this item was 9% of the total. It was also right at 9% of Japanese GDP for the year. In contrast, US direct ownership interests abroad constituted 26.2% of total US assets abroad and 20.2% of US GDP in 2004 (latest available).
Foreign investors have interests in Japan, of course, and at the end of 2005, these totaled &yen;325.9 trillion, up a sizable 31.2% from year-end 2004. The gain was concentrated in equity securities, which increased 71.6%, helped by the 40.2% surge in Japanese stock prices (measured by the Nikkei 225). Foreign direct investment in Japan rose 17.9%, but it is a much smaller amount, only &yen;11.9 billion.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060526g.jpg" width="353">
With the big gain in the value of liabilities to foreigners, Japan&#39;s net investment position actually decreased in 2005, falling 2.7% to &yen;180.7 billion. Sometimes such a movement is seen as unhealthy for a country. But on this occasion, it seems more to reflect the emerging improvement in Japan that makes it more attractive for investment.
In releasing these data today, the Bank of Japan added industry and country detail. Haver Analytics will be adding these data to the JAPAN database soon. They will greatly enhance the understanding Japan&#39;s capital flows and values in world markets.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Japan: End of Year, Bil.&yen;</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1995</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Assets Abroad</td>
<td>506,191</td>
<td>433,864</td>
<td>385,538</td>
<td>341,206</td>
<td>270,738</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Direct Investment</td>
<td>45,605</td>
<td>38,581</td>
<td>35,932</td>
<td>31,993</td>
<td>24,520</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Portfolio Investment</td>
<td>249,493</td>
<td>209,247</td>
<td>184,353</td>
<td>150,115</td>
<td>88,257</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Equity</td>
<td>48,200</td>
<td>37,972</td>
<td>29,394</td>
<td>30,133</td>
<td>15,040</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Debt Securities</td>
<td>201,294</td>
<td>171,275</td>
<td>154,959</td>
<td>119,982</td>
<td>73,217</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Liabilities</td>
<td>325,942</td>
<td>248,067</td>
<td>212,720</td>
<td>208,159</td>
<td>186,666</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Direct Investment</td>
<td>11,903</td>
<td>10,098</td>
<td>9,610</td>
<td>5,782</td>
<td>3,448</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Portfolio Investment</td>
<td>181,959</td>
<td>120,091</td>
<td>92,873</td>
<td>101,609</td>
<td>56,379</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Loans</td>
<td>98,105</td>
<td>90,776</td>
<td>83,665</td>
<td>76,212</td>
<td>97,759</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Net Assets</td>
<td>180,699</td>
<td>185,797</td>
<td>172,818</td>
<td>133,047</td>
<td>84,072</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

Carol Stone, CBE

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060525e.jpg" width="353">
 New Zealand&#39;s trade balance improved in April, according to data reported this morning in Wellington by Statistics New Zealand. Markets and analysts focus on rolling 12-month totals for New Zealand, and the trade deficit on that basis narrowed to NZ$6.90 billion for the year ended April from NZ$7.05 billion in March. The April figure was the smallest deficit this year although much wider than the NZ$4.30 billion of April 2005.
 As evident in both the graph and the table below, cumulative exports are little changed over the last year, but imports are up some 7.7%. Petroleum accounts for a big part of this: the value of those imports has increased by nearly 26%. The largest single import item is vehicles, and these purchases have actually decreased from a year ago, to NZ$5.15 billion from NZ$5.52 billion.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060525f.jpg" width="353">
 New Zealand is largely a service and agricultural economy. The trade balance improvement, which started in March, owes mainly to gains in dairy product exports: milk powder, butter and cheese. These had an aggregate total of NZ$5.48 billion in April compared with NZ$5.04 billion a year ago. Machinery, aluminum and beverage exports also rose.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060525g.jpg" width="353">
 These data, all from Statistics New Zealand, are contained in Haver&#39;s ANZ database, along with our Australia data offerings. This database includes only series that come from the countries&#39; own data sources. For some major countries that do not seasonally adjust certain data, Haver performs that procedure; these supplemental data are contained in the database G10. This latter collection includes key data summaries for 22 countries, the Euro-Zone and several regional groupings. For New Zealand, Haver&#39;s calculations show the trade deficit for the month of April alone was NZ$217 million, the smallest since NZ$173 million in January 2005. The reduction from March in the seasonally adjusted deficit from NZ$380 million consisted of a slim NZ$32 million decrease in exports and a more significant NZ$197 million drop in imports.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/ANZ/@A2/@A209/@A209.HTM">New Zealand, NZ$</a></th>
<th scope="col">Apr 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Mar 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Feb 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Apr 2005</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">12-Month Totals (Bil): Trade Balance</td>
<td>-6.90</td>
<td>-7.05</td>
<td>-7.32</td>
<td>-4.30</td>
<td>-6.46</td>
<td>-4.20</td>
<td>-3.38</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Exports</td>
<td>31.33</td>
<td>31.10</td>
<td>30.71</td>
<td>31.20</td>
<td>30.82</td>
<td>30.71</td>
<td>28.40</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Imports</td>
<td>38.22</td>
<td>38.16</td>
<td>38.03</td>
<td>35.50</td>
<td>37.27</td>
<td>34.91</td>
<td>31.78</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Individual Months, SA* (Mil): Trade Balance</td>
<td>-217</td>
<td>-380</td>
<td>-772</td>
<td>-368</td>
<td colspan="3">Monthly Averages</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">-539</td>
<td>-350</td>
<td>-282</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Exports</td>
<td>2852</td>
<td>2886</td>
<td>2600</td>
<td>2643</td>
<td>2568</td>
<td>2560</td>
<td>2366</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Imports</td>
<td>3069</td>
<td>3266</td>
<td>3372</td>
<td>3011</td>
<td>3107</td>
<td>2910</td>
<td>2648</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

New Zealand's trade balance improved in April, according to data reported this morning in Wellington by Statistics New Zealand. Markets and analysts focus on rolling 12-month totals for New Zealand, and the trade deficit on that basis [...]

New Zealand Trade Deficit Diminishes as Gains in Dairy Exports Help Offset Petroleum Imports

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060525d.jpg" width="353">
Last week, initial unemployment insurance claims fell 40,000 to 329,000 due to the resolution of a partial government shutdown in Puerto Rico. The drop reversed nearly all of the prior week&#39;s little revised rise. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 337,000 (0.9% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased 38,000 following a revised 1,000 rise during the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment ticked up to 1.9% following two weeks at 1.8%.
Financial literacy, testimony of Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2006/20060523/default.htm"> here</a>. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">05/20/06</th>
<th scope="col">05/13/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>329</td>
<td>369</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>403</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,420</td>
<td>-6.7%</td>
<td>2,663</td>
<td>2,923</td>
<td>3,530</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Last week, initial unemployment insurance claims fell 40,000 to 329,000 due to the resolution of a partial government shutdown in Puerto Rico. The drop reversed nearly all of the prior week's little revised rise. Consensus [...]

Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Back Down

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060525c.jpg" width="353">
 The National Association of Realtors reported that April total existing home sales declined 2.0% m/m to 6.760M following little change in March that was little revised. The gain was in line with Consensus expectations for 6.78M sales.
Sales of single-family homes fell 2.0% after a slight March dip. The data cover sales closed in the latest and previous months, and contrast to the new home sales data which count sales at the signing of a contract. 
Sales declines were widespread throughout the country. In the Northeast, sales reversed all of the prior month&#39;s gain with a 4.5% drop (-3.4% y/y). Sales in the Midwest more than reversed the prior month&#39;s gain and fell 3.4% (-4.1% y/y). In the South sales fell 0.8% (-2.4% y/y) for the third consecutive monthly drop and sales in the West were unchanged (-12.8% y/y).
The median price of an existing single-family home rose 2.5% (4.3% y/y). Prices are not seasonally adjusted.
The latest release from the National Association of Realtors is available <a href="http://www.realtor.org/research.nsf/pages/EHSPage?OpenDocument">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E905/@E90501/@E90501.HTM">Existing Home Sales (000, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Home Sales</td>
<td>&nbsp;6,760</td>
<td>6,900</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>7,064</td>
<td>6,722</td>
<td>6,176</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single Family Home Sales</td>
<td>5,920</td>
<td>6,040</td>
<td>-5.6%</td>
<td>6,170</td>
<td>5,912</td>
<td>5,443</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Single Family Median Home Price (000) </td>
<td>$222.7 </td>
<td>$217.2 </td>
<td>4.3% </td>
<td>$206.3</td>
<td>$182.8 </td>
<td>$169.1 </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

The National Association of Realtors reported that April total existing home sales declined 2.0% m/m to 6.760M following little change in March that was little revised. The gain was in line with Consensus expectations for 6.78M sales. [...]

U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline As Expected

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060525a.jpg" width="353">
During 1Q06 the U.S. economy grew 5.3% (AR), faster than the initially estimated 4.8% which was an acceleration from 1.7% during 4Q05. The increase fell short of Consensus expectations for a revision to 5.8% and growth of 3.0-3.5% is widely forecast for 2Q.
Corporate profits jumped 7.9% (23.8% y/y) during 1Q. Strength was pronounced for US financial corporations whose profits soared 17.5% (19.4% y/y). Nonfinancial corporate profitability also posted a robust 4.6% (29.3% y/y) gain as profit margins rose to another record high. Overseas profits recovered 4.3% (12.4% y/y) following a 6.5% decline during 4Q. 
Inventories subtracted a lesser 0.1% from GDP growth during 1Q versus the initial estimate of a 0.5% subtraction.
The 0.6 percentage point subtraction from a wider foreign trade deficit also was less than the initially estimated 0.8 percentage points. Growth in exports was revised up to 14.7% (8.1% y/y) and import growth of 12.8% (6.6% y/y) was little changed.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060525b.jpg" width="353">
Domestic demand growth was lessened to 5.7% from 5.9% estimated initially due to lowered estimates of growth in personal consumption and business investment.
Growth in personal consumption expenditures was revised down to 5.2% (3.4% y/y) from 5.5%. The estimate of growth in spending on services was reduced to 2.2% (2.6% y/y) from 2.8% while estimates of strong spending in most goods categories were little changed.
Growth in business fixed investment also was reduced to a still strong 13.8% (10.0% y/y) from 17.9% estimated last month. Growth in spending on structures was halved to 11.4% (4.8% y/y). Residential investment grew 3.0% (5.9% y/y).
The estimate of the GDP chain price index was unchanged at 3.3%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM">Chained 2000$, % AR</a></th>
<th scope="col">1Q &#39;06 (Prelim.)</th>
<th scope="col">1Q &#39;06 (Advance)</th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Final Sales</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Foreign Trade Effect</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Final Demand</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chained GDP Price Index</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

During 1Q06 the U.S. economy grew 5.3% (AR), faster than the initially estimated 4.8% which was an acceleration from 1.7% during 4Q05. The increase fell short of Consensus expectations for a revision to 5.8% and growth of 3.0-3.5% is [...]

1Q US GDP Growth Revised Up, Profits Soared

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060525a.jpg" width="353">
During 1Q06 the U.S. economy grew 5.3% (AR), faster than the initially estimated 4.8% which was an acceleration from 1.7% during 4Q05. The increase fell short of Consensus expectations for a revision to 5.8% and growth of 3.0-3.5% is widely forecast for 2Q.
Corporate profits jumped 7.9% (23.8% y/y) during 1Q. Strength was pronounced for US financial corporations whose profits soared 17.5% (19.4% y/y). Nonfinancial corporate profitability also posted a robust 4.6% (29.3% y/y) gain as profit margins rose to another record high. Overseas profits recovered 4.3% (12.4% y/y) following a 6.5% decline during 4Q. 
Inventories subtracted a lesser 0.1% from GDP growth during 1Q versus the initial estimate of a 0.5% subtraction.
The 0.6 percentage point subtraction from a wider foreign trade deficit also was less than the initially estimated 0.8 percentage points. Growth in exports was revised up to 14.7% (8.1% y/y) and import growth of 12.8% (6.6% y/y) was little changed.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060525b.jpg" width="353">
Domestic demand growth was lessened to 5.7% from 5.9% estimated initially due to lowered estimates of growth in personal consumption and business investment.
Growth in personal consumption expenditures was revised down to 5.2% (3.4% y/y) from 5.5%. The estimate of growth in spending on services was reduced to 2.2% (2.6% y/y) from 2.8% while estimates of strong spending in most goods categories were little changed.
Growth in business fixed investment also was reduced to a still strong 13.8% (10.0% y/y) from 17.9% estimated last month. Growth in spending on structures was halved to 11.4% (4.8% y/y). Residential investment grew 3.0% (5.9% y/y).
The estimate of the GDP chain price index was unchanged at 3.3%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM">Chained 2000$, % AR</a></th>
<th scope="col">1Q &#39;06 (Prelim.)</th>
<th scope="col">1Q &#39;06 (Advance)</th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Final Sales</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Foreign Trade Effect</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Final Demand</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chained GDP Price Index</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline As Expected 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 25, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060525c.jpg" width="353">
 The National Association of Realtors reported that April total existing home sales declined 2.0% m/m to 6.760M following little change in March that was little revised. The gain was in line with Consensus expectations for 6.78M sales.
Sales of single-family homes fell 2.0% after a slight March dip. The data cover sales closed in the latest and previous months, and contrast to the new home sales data which count sales at the signing of a contract. 
Sales declines were widespread throughout the country. In the Northeast, sales reversed all of the prior month&#39;s gain with a 4.5% drop (-3.4% y/y). Sales in the Midwest more than reversed the prior month&#39;s gain and fell 3.4% (-4.1% y/y). In the South sales fell 0.8% (-2.4% y/y) for the third consecutive monthly drop and sales in the West were unchanged (-12.8% y/y).
The median price of an existing single-family home rose 2.5% (4.3% y/y). Prices are not seasonally adjusted.
The latest release from the National Association of Realtors is available <a href="http://www.realtor.org/research.nsf/pages/EHSPage?OpenDocument">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E905/@E90501/@E90501.HTM">Existing Home Sales (000, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Home Sales</td>
<td>&nbsp;6,760</td>
<td>6,900</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>7,064</td>
<td>6,722</td>
<td>6,176</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single Family Home Sales</td>
<td>5,920</td>
<td>6,040</td>
<td>-5.6%</td>
<td>6,170</td>
<td>5,912</td>
<td>5,443</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Single Family Median Home Price (000) </td>
<td>$222.7 </td>
<td>$217.2 </td>
<td>4.3% </td>
<td>$206.3</td>
<td>$182.8 </td>
<td>$169.1 </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Back Down 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 25, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060525d.jpg" width="353">
Last week, initial unemployment insurance claims fell 40,000 to 329,000 due to the resolution of a partial government shutdown in Puerto Rico. The drop reversed nearly all of the prior week&#39;s little revised rise. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 337,000 (0.9% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased 38,000 following a revised 1,000 rise during the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment ticked up to 1.9% following two weeks at 1.8%.
Financial literacy, testimony of Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2006/20060523/default.htm"> here</a>. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">05/20/06</th>
<th scope="col">05/13/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>329</td>
<td>369</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>403</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,420</td>
<td>-6.7%</td>
<td>2,663</td>
<td>2,923</td>
<td>3,530</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
New Zealand Trade Deficit Diminishes as Gains in Dairy Exports Help Offset Petroleum Imports 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> May 25, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060525e.jpg" width="353">
 New Zealand&#39;s trade balance improved in April, according to data reported this morning in Wellington by Statistics New Zealand. Markets and analysts focus on rolling 12-month totals for New Zealand, and the trade deficit on that basis narrowed to NZ$6.90 billion for the year ended April from NZ$7.05 billion in March. The April figure was the smallest deficit this year although much wider than the NZ$4.30 billion of April 2005.
 As evident in both the graph and the table below, cumulative exports are little changed over the last year, but imports are up some 7.7%. Petroleum accounts for a big part of this: the value of those imports has increased by nearly 26%. The largest single import item is vehicles, and these purchases have actually decreased from a year ago, to NZ$5.15 billion from NZ$5.52 billion.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060525f.jpg" width="353">
 New Zealand is largely a service and agricultural economy. The trade balance improvement, which started in March, owes mainly to gains in dairy product exports: milk powder, butter and cheese. These had an aggregate total of NZ$5.48 billion in April compared with NZ$5.04 billion a year ago. Machinery, aluminum and beverage exports also rose.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060525g.jpg" width="353">
 These data, all from Statistics New Zealand, are contained in Haver&#39;s ANZ database, along with our Australia data offerings. This database includes only series that come from the countries&#39; own data sources. For some major countries that do not seasonally adjust certain data, Haver performs that procedure; these supplemental data are contained in the database G10. This latter collection includes key data summaries for 22 countries, the Euro-Zone and several regional groupings. For New Zealand, Haver&#39;s calculations show the trade deficit for the month of April alone was NZ$217 million, the smallest since NZ$173 million in January 2005. The reduction from March in the seasonally adjusted deficit from NZ$380 million consisted of a slim NZ$32 million decrease in exports and a more significant NZ$197 million drop in imports.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/ANZ/@A2/@A209/@A209.HTM">New Zealand, NZ$</a></th>
<th scope="col">Apr 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Mar 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Feb 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Apr 2005</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">12-Month Totals (Bil): Trade Balance</td>
<td>-6.90</td>
<td>-7.05</td>
<td>-7.32</td>
<td>-4.30</td>
<td>-6.46</td>
<td>-4.20</td>
<td>-3.38</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Exports</td>
<td>31.33</td>
<td>31.10</td>
<td>30.71</td>
<td>31.20</td>
<td>30.82</td>
<td>30.71</td>
<td>28.40</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Imports</td>
<td>38.22</td>
<td>38.16</td>
<td>38.03</td>
<td>35.50</td>
<td>37.27</td>
<td>34.91</td>
<td>31.78</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Individual Months, SA* (Mil): Trade Balance</td>
<td>-217</td>
<td>-380</td>
<td>-772</td>
<td>-368</td>
<td colspan="3">Monthly Averages</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">-539</td>
<td>-350</td>
<td>-282</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Exports</td>
<td>2852</td>
<td>2886</td>
<td>2600</td>
<td>2643</td>
<td>2568</td>
<td>2560</td>
<td>2366</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Imports</td>
<td>3069</td>
<td>3266</td>
<td>3372</td>
<td>3011</td>
<td>3107</td>
<td>2910</td>
<td>2648</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

250430N1.jpg

250430O1.jpg

Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

250430P1.jpg

250430Q1.jpg

Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

250430R1.jpg

250430S1.jpg

- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

U.S. GDP Unexpectedly Declines in Q1’25; Prices Strengthen

Michael J. Moran

250430A.jpg

250430B.jpg

High-side readings on the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures in January and February caused some concern about emerging price pressure, especially with some policies of the Trump administration possibly adding to the upward force. However, March brought notable relief, with the headline price index falling slightly (-0.04%). A marked decline in energy prices was helpful (-2.7%), but core prices also were subdued, increasing less than 0.1%.  Year-over-year changes were still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but only barely so for the headline measure (2.3%). The core index backed away from the reading of 3.0% in February, but the latest reading of 2.7% was in line with observations in the past year, and still uncomfortably above target.

Consumers roused from a winter slumber in March, with nominal outlays increasing 0.7%. With inflation restrained, real outlays also posted a gain of 0.7%. Spending on durable gods stood out, with real outlays advancing 3.2%. Real outlays for both nondurable goods and services rose 0.4%, a solid pace. Signs of life were certainly welcome after an average decline of 0.1% in January and February. The March rebound left growth of 1.8% (annual rate) in the first quarter.

The brisk increase in spending in March was supported by a solid gain in personal income (0.5% in both nominal and real terms). Growth in wage income was firm at 0.5%, while proprietors’ income was robust with a gain of 1.8% (not annualized!). The farm sector led the advance in proprietors’ income, but the nonfarm sector also was strong (0.6%).

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

250430C.jpg

250430D.jpg

- Price pressure eases.
- Spending rebounds after two soft months.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in March

250430F20.jpg

250430G20.jpg

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking home sales measure based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.1% to 76.5 (-0.6% y/y) during March after rising a little-revised 2.1% in February. These changes followed a 4.6% January decline.

The rise in March sales occurred as the rate on a 30-year mortgage eased to an average 6.65% from 6.84% in February. This rate was well above a low of 2.68% averaged in December 2020.

Pending home sales were up in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 4.9% (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 1.8% in February. Sales in the South increased 9.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 5.8% February rise. Sales in the West improved 4.8% (-2.0% y/y) after falling 3.0% in February. Sales in the Northeast were off 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) in March after falling 0.9% in February.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Sales rise to highest level in four months.
- Strength is evident throughout most of country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in March

Sandy Batten

250430F5.jpg

250430G5.jpg

The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

250430H5.jpg

250430I5.jpg

- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

250430J4.jpg

250430K4.jpg

The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

250430L4.jpg

250430M4.jpg

- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.

Economy in Brief: May 2006

Jump to:

U.S. Consumers' Funk Didn't Deepen in Late May

U.S. Personal Income Gain Light, Wages Soared, Prices Up

U.S. Personal Income Gain Light, Wages Soared, Prices Up

New Zealand Trade Deficit Diminishes as Gains in Dairy Exports Help Offset Petroleum Imports

Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Back Down

U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline As Expected

1Q US GDP Growth Revised Up, Profits Soared

1Q US GDP Growth Revised Up, Profits Soared