Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020423a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales jumped 1.4% last week according to BTM-UBSW, the first meaningful weekly gain since February. Despite the surge, April sales to date are 0.7% below the March average.
Weakness in April sales through the prior week is supported by the Redbook sales figures. Redbook same store sales gains slowed to 2.3% in April from 4.7% in March.
During the last ten years there has been a 20% correlation between the monthly percent change in chain store sales and the change in consumer confidence.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">4/20/02</th>
<th scope="col">4/13/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>406.3</td>
<td>400.8</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
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</tbody>
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Chain store sales jumped 1.4% last week according to BTM-UBSW, the first meaningful weekly gain since February. Despite the surge, April sales to date are 0.7% below the March average. Weakness in April sales through the prior week is [...]

Weekly Chain Store Sales Jump

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020422a.jpg" width="353">
<center></center>
The Weekly Leading Index of the US economy, published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), rose slightly in the latest week and is up sharply from the lows set last Fall.
The index is designed to signal turning points in the US economy and is &quot;real time,&quot; i.e. weekly, and not subject to significant revision.
Construction of the ECRI Leading Index is quite different from the Index of Leading Economic Indicators published by the Conference Board. Nevertheless there has been an 80% correlation between the annual percent change in the two over the last 20 years.
The components of the index are money supply plus stock &amp; bond mutual funds, the JOC-ECRI industrial materials price index, mortgage applications, bond quality spreads, stock prices, bond yields, initial jobless insurance claims.
The median lead of the ECRI index at business cycle peaks has been 10.5 months and at cycle troughs 3.0 months. The sideways movement of the leading index in 2002 may or may not signal something about the economy&#39;s growth rate.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/weekly/@W8/@W801/@W801.HTM">ECRI WEEKLY</a></th>
<th scope="col">4/05/02</th>
<th scope="col">3/29/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">ECRI Weekly Leading Index</td>
<td>121.6</td>
<td>121.3</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>-4.5%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The Weekly Leading Index of the US economy, published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), rose slightly in the latest week and is up sharply from the lows set last Fall. The index is designed to signal turning points in [...]

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Signals Recovery

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020418b.jpg" width="353">
The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose last month by slightly less than expected. February was little revised. 
60% of the component series contributed to the increase. The breadth of component series gain, itself a leading indicator of the leading indicator series, has narrowed from 90% in December. The six-month diffusion index improved to 75%, its highest since December 1999.
Weekly hours, stock prices, the yield curve and consumer expectations contributed meaningfully to the leaders rise while jobless claims and building permits had large negative contributions.
The Leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series and two that are estimated.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/BCI/BCI.HTM">Business Cycle Indicators</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Leading</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Coincident</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Lagging</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-5.6%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Philadelphia Fed Index Up Slightly 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 18, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020418c.jpg" width="353">
The Philadelphia Fed&#146;s index of general business conditions rose modestly in April, as expected, and remained positive for the fourth consecutive month.
New orders, shipments and unfilled orders rose while delivery lead times eased. Inventories continued to fall. 
The business conditions index reflects a separate survey question, not the components. 
Pricing pressure firmed further versus its low last October.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S504/@S504.HTM">Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">General Activity Index</td>
<td>12.3</td>
<td>11.4</td>
<td>-11.3</td>
<td>-17.3</td>
<td>8.2</td>
<td>13.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index</td>
<td>7.5</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>27.1</td>
<td>10.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Surge 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 18, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020418a.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose more than expected from the prior week&#39;s level that was revised up. 
The initial claims figure is for the BLS April survey period, but because folks already receiving unemployment benefits are technically required to re-file for extended benefits, the initial claims figure is artificially raised. 
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance nevertheless surged to the highest level since 1983. This figure is not distorted by filings for extended benefits, except that the rise does indicate that the rate of new job creation is not high. The prior week&#39;s level was revised down slightly.
Correlations between the monthly change in initial jobless claims and nonag payrolls are higher than between continuing claims and payrolls.
The four-week moving average of claims rose sharply to 448,750. 
The insured rate of unemployment rose to 3.0%.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">04/13/02</th>
<th scope="col">04/06/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>445.0</td>
<td>444.0</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>405.8</td>
<td>299.8</td>
<td>297.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,839</td>
<td>46.1%</td>
<td>3,021</td>
<td>2,114</td>
<td>2,186</td>
</tr>
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The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose last month by slightly less than expected. February was little revised. 60% of the component series contributed to the increase. The breadth of component series gain, itself a [...]

Leading Indicators Up Slightly

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020417a.jpg" width="353">
The US foreign trade deficit rose more than expected in February. January&#39;s deficit was revised slightly shallower, due to raised exports, from $28.5B reported last month . 
The trade deficit in 1Q so far averaged $29.9B versus $27.6B in 4Q. That degree of deterioration would sap one quarter of a percentage point from 1Q GDP growth if sustained. 
Imports of nonauto capital goods were strong for the second consecutive month as were imports of nonauto consumer goods. Imports of auto products rose 10.5% to the highest level since November 2000.
Imports of industrial supplies and materials fell 4.4% as the value of petroleum imports fell 17%. The price per barrel of crude oil rose 1.5% to $16.56 but the per day quantity of crude oil consumed fell 10.4% (-3.3% y/y).
Exports rose meaningfully for the first month since October due to strong gains in autos and food. Exports of capital goods fell for the second month in three and exports of nonauto consumer goods rose a modest 0.5% after a 5.2% January drop.
The Web site below contains new research from the Federal Reserve suggesting that US net international debt is smaller than official figures suggest.<a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2002/722/ifdp722.pdf">http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2002/722/ifdp722.pdf</a>

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE03/@EE03.HTM">Foreign Trade</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Trade Deficit</td>
<td>$31.5B</td>
<td>$28.2B</td>
<td>$28.8B(2/01)</td>
<td>$347.5B</td>
<td>$375.7B</td>
<td>$261.8B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Exports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-12.2%</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>11.3%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>-7.0%</td>
<td>-6.2%</td>
<td>18.2%</td>
<td>10.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The US foreign trade deficit rose more than expected in February. January's deficit was revised slightly shallower, due to raised exports, from $28.5B reported last month . The trade deficit in 1Q so far averaged $29.9B versus $27.6B [...]

Trade Deficit Deepened With Improved US Economy

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020416b.jpg" width="353">
Consumer prices rose less than expected last month. Core inflation also rose less than Consensus expectations for a 0.2% gain.
As expected, energy prices were strong led by an 8.0% gain in gasoline prices and a 1.7% rise in fuel oil prices. Piped gas and electricity prices rose just 0.2% (-8.1% y/y), only the third monthly increase in fifteen months.
Core inflation was quite tame due to another decline in consumer goods prices. Tobacco prices, down 3.5%, about completely reversed the rise the prior month. Home furnishings prices were unchanged following two months down. New vehicle prices fell for the third consecutive month. Apparel prices rose a strong 1.2% but remained down 3.1% y/y.
Services prices less energy also rose just modestly. Shelter prices gained 0.1%, the weakest increase since September but medical care services rose 0.4% (4.7% y/y). Public transportation prices fell for the second consecutive month. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80101/@E80101.HTM">Consumer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total&nbsp;</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Goods less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services less Energy</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Energy</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-10.5%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>16.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Food &amp; Beverages</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
March Housing Starts Down, 1Q02 Strong 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 16, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020416c.jpg" width="353">
Housing starts fell about as expected last month. The surge in February was revised up slightly due to a raised estimate for single family starts. 
Single-family starts fell 11.4%, but for the quarter rose a sharp 8.9% versus 4Q01.
Multi-family starts rose 8.9%, recouping some of the sharp decline the prior month.
Starts fell in each of the country&#39;s regions except for a 15.5% surge in the Northeast.
Building permits fell sharply following four months of strong gain.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E901/@E90101/@E90101.HTM">Housing Starts (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1,646</td>
<td>1,785</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>1,608</td>
<td>1,575</td>
<td>1,647</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single Family</td>
<td>1,303</td>
<td>1,470</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>1,276</td>
<td>1,233</td>
<td>1,306</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Multi Family</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>315</td>
<td>-10.7%</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>342</td>
<td>341</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Industrial Production Rose More Than Expected 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 16, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020416d.jpg" width="353">
Industrial production rose in March for the third month in a row led by a 0.8% gain in factory sector output, the strongest monthly increase since March 2000. February figures were little revised. Production rose 2.5% (AR) versus 4Q.
Excluding high tech, production rose 0.7% following a 0.2% February gain and a 0.4% January rise.
Output of appliances/furniture/carpeting rose a strong 1.3% following a 2.7% February gain. Business equipment rose just 0.1%, held back by a sharp drop in transportation equipment. Output of info processing equipment, up 1.1%, rose for the third straight month.
Capacity utilization rose for the third month. Capacity has increased just 0.1% monthly since March of last year.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EA/@EA.HTM">Production &amp; Capacity</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-2.9%</td>
<td>-3.7%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Capacity Utilization</td>
<td>75.4%</td>
<td>74.9%</td>
<td>78.5%(3/01)</td>
<td>76.8%</td>
<td>81.8%</td>
<td>81.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Weekly Chain Store Sales Fall 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 16, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020416a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales fell 0.7% in the first full week of April. Early April sales are 1.0% below the March average.
Weakness in April sales is supported by the Redbook sales figures where, through the prior week, same store sales gains slowed to 3.3% from 4.7% in March.
During the last ten years there has been a 20% correlation between the monthly percent change in chain store sales and the change in consumer confidence.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">4/13/02</th>
<th scope="col">4/06/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>400.8</td>
<td>403.7</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Consumer prices rose less than expected last month. Core inflation also rose less than Consensus expectations for a 0.2% gain. As expected, energy prices were strong led by an 8.0% gain in gasoline prices and a 1.7% rise in fuel oil [...]

Consumer Prices Up Less Than Expected

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020415a.jpg" width="353">
Total business inventories fell in February about as expected. The previously reported rise in January inventories was revised to a slight decline as a result of lowered figures in the nonauto retail, wholesale and factory sectors.
Nonauto retail inventories, the new news in today&#39;s report, fell due to a 2.2% (-7.2% y/y) decline in apparel inventories. Inventories in the retail furniture sector, where demand has been strong, rose for the fifth consecutive month. 
Inventories of general merchandise also rose (-2.4% y/y) following three months of sharp decline.
Overall business sales fell 0.9%(-2.9% y/y), reversing a January increase.
The inventory-to-sales ratio rose slightly to 1.38 from a downwardly revised January, but remained below 1.42 for all of last year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED06/@ED0601/@ED0601.HTM">Business Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-2.8%</td>
<td>-4.7%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Retail excl. Autos</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-5.8%</td>
<td>-5.3%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-8.8%</td>
<td>-7.5%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Total business inventories fell in February about as expected. The previously reported rise in January inventories was revised to a slight decline as a result of lowered figures in the nonauto retail, wholesale and factory sectors. [...]

Business Inventories Continue Falling

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020412b.jpg" width="353">
Finished producer prices rose more than expected last month due to a 5.5% surge in energy prices. Food prices rose 0.6%, the third strong monthly increase in a row. Core finished goods prices rose as expected.
Unadjusted gasoline prices jumped 18.6% and fuel oil prices rose 15.3%. Natural gas prices fell for the second month this year and are down 33.5% since the peak in January 2001. 
Core finished consumer goods prices rose 0.2% (0.7% y/y) following two months of moderate decline. Capital goods prices rose 0.1% (-0.1% y/y) for the second month in a row. 
Intermediate goods prices popped due to higher energy prices. Core intermediate prices rose for the first time since last March. 
Crude goods prices also rose due to higher energy prices, but core crude prices fell reflecting a leveling off of the recent rebound in commodity prices.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E802/@E80201/@E80201.HTM">Producer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Finished Goods</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>0.2 %</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Crude Goods</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-22.7%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>22.8%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>-6.6%</td>
<td>-10.0%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>-4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Retail Sales Again Up Less than Expected 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 12, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020412a.jpg" width="353">
Total retail sales rose modestly last month following a similar gain in February that was revised down slightly. Sales excluding autos rose as expected but the February gain was revised down slightly. 
Higher gasoline prices boosted sales at gasoline service stations by 3.8%. Excluding gasoline, nonauto retail sales rose 0.1% for the second month in a row.
Sales of furniture, home furnishings and electronics rose 0.1% and are up 7.6% during the last six months. 
Sales at clothing and accessory stores fell slightly but are up 10.4% during the last six months.
Sales at general merchandise stores fell and are up 5.0% since September.
Unit sales of domestic and imported light vehicles fell 1.4% in March to 16.44M units (SAAR). 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Consumer Sentiment Lower 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 12, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020412c.jpg" width="353">
The preliminary April reading of Consumer Sentiment by the University of Michigan fell unexpectedly versus March, probably hurt by violence in the Mideast and lower stock prices. 
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.
During the past five years there has been a 37% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the 3-month % change in real PCE.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM">Univ. of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mid-April</th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>94.4</td>
<td>95.7</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>89.2</td>
<td>107.6</td>
<td>105.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Finished producer prices rose more than expected last month due to a 5.5% surge in energy prices. Food prices rose 0.6%, the third strong monthly increase in a row. Core finished goods prices rose as expected. Unadjusted gasoline [...]

Producer Prices Up More Than Expected

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020411a.jpg" width="353">
Prices for imported commodities rose more than expected last month. Consensus estimates were for a 0.5% gain. February figures were unrevised.
Petroleum import prices surged by the most for any one month since early 1999, to the highest level since September of last year.
Nonpetroleum import prices were unchanged and remained 11.3% below the peak set in 1995. Prices for capital goods, nonauto consumer goods and autos fell. Imported food prices rose slightly.
Export prices rose for the first time since January 2001 mostly due to higher prices for industrial materials.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export Prices (NSA)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import - All Commodities</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>15.7%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>-13.6%</td>
<td>-17.2%</td>
<td>66.5%</td>
<td>34.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonpetroleum</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Export - All Commodities</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fall 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 11, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020411b.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell about as expected from the prior week&#39;s level that was revised up. Claims figures back to 1988 were revised. 
Despite the weekly decline, filings for extended unemployment insurance benefits raised the initial claims figure and suggest a slow rate of rehiring. 
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance again rose sharply in the latest week. The prior week&#39;s level was revised up.
The four-week moving average of claims rose sharply to 433,750, the highest level since mid-December. 
The insured rate of unemployment rose to 2.9%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">04/06/02</th>
<th scope="col">03/30/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>438.0</td>
<td>493.0</td>
<td>10.3%</td>
<td>405.8</td>
<td>299.8</td>
<td>297.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,779</td>
<td>42.4%</td>
<td>3,021</td>
<td>2,114</td>
<td>2,186</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Prices for imported commodities rose more than expected last month. Consensus estimates were for a 0.5% gain. February figures were unrevised. Petroleum import prices surged by the most for any one month since early 1999, to the [...]

Import Prices Up as Oil Prices Surge

Retail gasoline price still well above pre-conflict level and now rising again

PMIs showing widespread revival of global economy

Crude oil price has returned to pre-conflict level but traffic through Hormuz still subpar

Surging orders for computers and electronics propelling durable goods orders

Next year's inflation forecasts are on the rise and above target

Disrupted global supply chains placing upward pressure on US goods prices

Construction of data centers has overtaken transportation construction in US

Elevated energy prices putting intense upward pressure on input prices around the globe

US is big leader in global surge in private AI investment

Larger-than-usual income tax refunds this year are supporting consumer spending

Sharply rising share of AI-related jobs

Inflationary impact of surge in oil prices larger in Europe than in the US

Futures market thinks the price of oil will recede significantly over the next six months

Recent pickup in US defense orders could help support overall growth ahead

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

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Sandy Batten

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The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.3% m/m (+5.5% y/y) in June following a downwardly revised 0.6% (6.0%y/y) gain in May (previously 1.1% m/m, 6.5% y/y) according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This was the first monthly decline in the headline index since August 2025 and the largest decline since April 2025. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected an unchanged reading in June. Producer prices excluding food, energy and trade services edged up 0.1% m/m (+5.1% y/y) in June after having jumped 0.8% m/m (5.1% y/y) in May. The PPI excluding food and energy (the previous core index) rose 0.2% m/m (4.7% y/y) in June versus a 0.1% m/m (4.6% y/y) increase in May. A 0.1% m/m increase was expected.

The June decline in the index for final demand was attributable to a 1.4% m/m decline (+7.9% y/y) in prices for final demand goods following a 2.3% monthly rise in May. The index for final demand services increased 0.2% m/m (4.6% y/y) in June after a 0.1% monthly decline in May.

The 1.4% m/m decline in final demand goods prices was the largest since July 2022. Leading the decline in June, prices for final demand energy dropped 6.4% m/m. A 12.0% m/m decline in gasoline prices accounted for two-thirds of the decline in final demand goods prices in June. The index for final demand foods moved down 0.6% m/m, the first monthly decline in three months. Conversely, prices for final demand goods less food and energy increased 0.2% m/m (+5.1% y/y). The indexes for diesel fuel, jet fuel, fresh vegetables (except potatoes), crude petroleum, and thermoplastic resins and materials fell. In contrast, prices for plastic products advanced 1.6% m/m. The indexes for residential electric power and for potatoes also increased.

The index for final demand services rose 0.2% m/m (4.6% y/y) in June after falling 0.1% m/m in May. Over 60% of the advance in June can be attributed to margins for final demand trade services, which moved up 0.4% m/m after a 2.3% m/m decline in May. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing increased 0.1% m/m. Conversely, the index for final demand transportation and warehousing services declined 0.1% m/m. The indexes for securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice; furniture retailing; apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing; loan services (partial); and inpatient care rose. In contrast, margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling declined 8.4%. The indexes for food and alcohol wholesaling and for deposit services (partial) also fell.

Final demand construction costs edged up 0.1% m/m (3.5% y/y) in June, the same monthly increase as in May. Construction prices for private capital investment also edged up 0.1% (3.4% y/y) in June, the same monthly gain as in May.

Prices for intermediate demand processed goods fell 1.2% m/m (+11.1% y/y) in June, the first monthly decline since October 2025 and the largest monthly decline since December 2022. Processed energy goods prices slumped 7.3% m/m, the first monthly decline since January. Processed foods prices edged up 0.1% m/m following a 0.6% m/m jump in May. Prices of processed goods excluding foods and energy rose 0.6% m/m, down markedly from 1.7% monthly gains in both April and May.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Led by a 6.4% m/m decline in energy prices, the PPI for final demand fell 0.3% m/m in June.
- Goods prices fell 1.4% m/m, the first monthly decline since January, while services prices rose 0.2% m/m.
- Excluding food, energy and trade margins, the new core measure edged up 0.1% m/m while the old core (excluding just food and energy) rose 0.2% m/m in June.

U.S. Producer Prices Fell in June

Winnie Tapasanun

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The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to a higher-than-expected 15.6 in July following a 13.9-point drop to 5.7 in June, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. A reading of 8.6 for July had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The positive July figure indicated that the business activity in New York State expanded for the fourth consecutive month and at a faster pace; it was a sharp improvement from 3.1 in July 2025 and a low of -29.7 in January 2024, though still below its most recent high of 19.6 in May and a high of 16.8 in November 2024. The percentage of respondents reporting an increase in general business conditions was 39.0% in July, up from 28.9% in June; the percentage reporting a decrease was 23.4%, up from June’s 23.2%. The latest survey was conducted between July 2 and July 10.

The headline index reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity and is not calculated from the components. Haver Analytics calculates a composite index from the five major components, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. This calculated index increased to 57.5 in July following a 4.6-point decline to 53.4 in June, representing the seventh straight expansion; it was modestly up from 54.1 in July 2025 and well above a low of 43.0 in January 2024. The index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories, with equal weights (20% each).

In the latest survey, the new orders index jumped to 22.2 in July after a 19.2-point drop to 3.5 in June, marking the seventh consecutive expansion and a sharp improvement from a low of -30.7 in January 2024. The shipments index advanced to 24.4 in July, the highest level since April 2022, following a 10.3-point decrease to 8.6 in June; it was well above a low of -21.7 in April 2024. The unfilled orders index held at 5.0 in July and June after 4.9 in May, indicating unfilled orders expanded for the sixth straight month; the index reached its recent high of 10.8 in March and a low of -24.2 in January 2024. The inventories index increased to 4.0 in July following a 9.7-point decline to 0.0 in June, signaling inventories rose slightly this month after being unchanged. Meanwhile, the delivery times index rose to 13.0 in July from 11.9 in June, with 20.0% of respondents reporting longer delivery times and 7.0% reporting shorter times, indicating that delivery times continued to lengthen.

On the labor front, the number of employees index rose to 11.4 in July after a 1.3-point rebound to 9.6 in June, indicating that employment expanded for the sixth successive month and reached its highest level since December 2022. The index remained well above a low of -9.3 in December 2023 but below a peak of 24.9 in February 2022. In July, a higher 20.9% of respondents reported an increase in employment while 9.6% reported a decline. The average workweek index fell to 2.8 in July from 5.1 in June, remaining positive for the sixth straight month, albeit at a four-month low.

Inflation pressures eased in July but remained elevated. The prices paid index fell to 52.3 in July, the lowest level since April, after a 1.6-point decline to 61.0 in June. Although well below a peak of 84.9 in April 2022, the index remained above a low of 25.9 in December 2024 and a low of 20.8 in December 2023. In July, 55.4% of respondents reported higher prices paid while only 3.1% reported lower prices paid. The prices received index slid to 27.6 in July, a three-month low, from 31.4 in June. The index was above a low of 7.5 in December 2024 and a low of 7.7 in July 2023 but far below a high of 51.9 in March 2022. In July, 31.3% of respondents reported higher prices received while 3.6% reported lower prices received.

Firms remained fairly optimistic about the future business outlook in the latest survey. The index for future business conditions eased to 27.9 in July, the lowest level since April, after a 3.4-point decrease to 30.1 in June, with 49.9% of respondents expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months. Future new orders edged up to 33.2 in July, the highest level since February, from 32.5 in June, while future shipments slipped to 30.6 from 32.2. Growth in future employment slowed to 14.4, the lowest reading since December, from June’s 20.9. Capital spending plans remained positive for the ninth consecutive month in July, with the future capital expenditures index rising to 15.0 from June’s 10.9. Expected prices paid fell to 53.0 in July, the lowest level since March, from 59.4 in June, and expected prices received fell to 41.9, the lowest level since April, from 51.6.

The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease with zero separating expansion from contraction.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- General Business Conditions Index up 9.9 pts. to 15.6 in July; fourth straight expansion.
- Shipments (24.4), highest since Apr. ’22; new orders (22.2); unfilled orders (5.0); inventories (4.0).
- Employment (11.4), a solid reading and highest since Dec. ’22.
- Prices paid (52.3) and prices received (27.6) both at three-month lows.
- Firms fairly optimistic: Future Business Conditions Index down to a still-positive 27.9; future prices paid at a four-month-low 53.0.

U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Rebounds Strongly in July

Robert Brusca

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Industrial production in the European Monetary Union (EMU) shows only a very minor and idiosyncratic sector acceleration in the nondurable goods sector. Other sectors show trends that are not focused and drift into random variability. Nondurable goods output shows growth of -10.9% over 12 months, improving to a pace of -9.9% over six months annualized and improving further to -8.7% annualized over three months. The irony is that nondurable output is contracting over all these periods, but the contractions are becoming slightly less virulent. It is nothing to base any optimism on despite the technically ‘improving’ trend.

Total output and manufacturing output in the EMU each show strong gains annualized over three months after declines on balance over six months and 12 months. 

While the secular trends are not clear in showing persistent accelerations or decelerations for the most part, it's true that output across the consumer industries continues to show contraction on all timelines. When we move to intermediate goods and capital goods, we're looking at output showing increases over 12 months, six months, and three months. Even if there are not clear progressions, the persistence of output gains is notable. This again underscores the extent to which expansion is being carried ahead by business and not by the consumer, even in Europe.

On a quarter-to-date (QTD) basis (two months into the second quarter), output is generally showing increases, with the exception of consumer durable goods showing an output decline at a 2.4% annual rate. Top-line growth is still very unimpressive, with total industrial production at a 0.6% annual growth rate and manufacturing alone at a 0.4% annual growth rate; neither of these is strong, solid, or impressive.

Turning to the percentile standing data that evaluate the strength of year-over-year growth on a historic timeline, we see that manufacturing and total output growth log percentile standings just below the 30th percentile. Consumer goods, as an aggregate category, have a 1.3% standing, which is extremely weak. That standing consists of a 29% standing for consumer durables and a 1.3 percentile standing for consumer nondurables output.

Once again, it is intermediate and capital goods that are the backbone of support for output. Intermediate goods’ annual growth rate has a 63-percentile standing, and the year-over-year growth rate for capital goods has a 52.9 percentile standing. Both being above the 50% mark puts them above their median for the period of analysis; that period extends back to August 2006, roughly a 20-year period.

I previously reported on the country detail. The country detail shows accelerating manufacturing output in Ireland, Portugal, and Sweden (Sweden that is not a monetary union member). Austria, a monetary union member, shows persistent deceleration, while the rest of the countries in the group show somewhat chaotic patterns.

While the percentile standing for year-over-year growth in manufacturing is at the 27th percentile mark for the whole of the monetary union, that amalgamation includes size weighting for that evaluation. If we take the unweighted averages for the percentile standings for 11 of the oldest monetary union members, their average individual ranking is much higher at a 48.3 percentile mark. Clearly, there are great differences by country across the monetary union, and this gives the ECB an additional headache in trying to make one monetary policy for such a varied group of economies.

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Europe

IP in EMU Remains Weak

Michael J. Moran

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Most analysts were looking for a dip in the CPI because of a likely retreat in gasoline prices, but the published decline of 0.4% in the headline index was noticeably softer than the consensus estimate of -0.1%. Gasoline prices did not disappoint, with a drop of 9.7% offsetting approximately one-quarter of the cumulative surge in the prior three months. Prices of fuel oil fell almost as much as gasoline prices, and electricity charges contributed to the softness with a decline of 1.0%. The price of natural gas services was the only major energy item to increase in June (0.5%). All told, the energy component of the CPI fell 5.7% after climbing 19.6% in the prior three months.

The drop in energy prices was notable, but the core component provided a bigger surprise by posting a decline, the first since a series of three consecutive decreases during the pandemic. Before the pandemic-related retreat, the core component fell only twice from 1990 to 2019. The drop in June was minuscule (-0.02%), but the fact that it carried a minus sign was striking.

Both the goods and services components of the core index contributed to the restraint. Prices of goods other than food and energy fell 0.1%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes six key subcategories of core goods, and five of them fell in June. Apparel prices stood out with a decline of 0.6%. Prices of core services were nearly unchanged at 0.03%, restrained by declines in medical services and motor vehicle insurance. Airfares, which showed upward pressure from rising fuel prices in the prior three months, posted a nondescript increase of 0.2%. The modest increase in the prices of core services led to a dip in the 12-month average increase after stepping up in April and May. The trend in core goods prices continued its gradual deceleration (chart, below right).

Food prices in June rose 0.2%, a reading comfortably within the range of the past few years.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- The energy component retraced a portion of its surge in the prior three months.
- Prices excluding food and energy provided a surprise by posting a rare decline.

June CPI: Cooling Energy Prices and a Restrained Core Component

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 97.4 in June, the highest level since February, after a 0.6-point decline to 95.3 in May, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. The index was slightly below its 52-year average of 98.0 for the fourth consecutive month and down from a peak of 105.1 in December 2024, albeit above a low of 88.5 in March 2024. Seven of the 10 index components rose, while three fell. Meanwhile, the NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index edged down to 89 in June following a three-point increase to 91 in May, remaining well above its historical average of 68. The index was below its record high of 110 in October 2024 but above its recent low of 84 in December 2025 and a low of 65 in November 2023.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months remained positive for the 20th straight month in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve advanced to 13% in June, a four-month high, following a one-point decline to 3% in May; these readings were far below a high of 52% in December 2024 but significantly above a record low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales climbed to a net 9% in June, a five-month high, from 1% in May; the latest figure was below a high of 22% in December 2024 but above a low of -18% in August 2024. A net -4% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up from -5% in May and marking the highest reading in four months; the latest result remained above a low of -20% in October 2024 but below the recent positive reading of 1% in February and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to expand the business inched up to 8% in June from 7% in May and April; the latest figure was down from a high of 20% in December 2024 but up from a low of 2% in March 2023. Plans to make capital outlays rebounded to 20% in June from 16% in May; these numbers were still below a high of 28% in November 2024 and a peak of 31% in October 2021. Expected credit conditions slipped to -5% in June, a three-month low, from -3% in May; this result was slightly below a high of -2% in December 2024 but above a low of -11% in November 2023. Meanwhile, a net 0% of respondents viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in June, up from -4% in May and matching the highest reading since August 2025 (also 0%); the positive reading of 1% was recorded in May 2025.

On the labor front, 51% of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in June, up from 46% in May and registering the highest level since September 2024. These numbers were above a low of 43% in August 2025 but below a high of 56% in August 2024 and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 11% planned to increase employment in June, up from 9% in May; it matched a low of 11% in March 2024 but remained below its recent high of 19% in November 2025 and a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 32% reported positions not able to be filled in June, up from 29% in May (the lowest level since May 2020); these figures remained below a high of 51% in May 2022.

Overall earnings trends had remained in negative territory since December 2019. The measure fell to -20% in June, the lowest level in three months, following a four-point increase to -15% in May. These readings were below the most recent high of -14% in February and a high of -5% in June 2021 but above a low of -37% in August 2024,

On the pricing front, actual and expected selling prices remained at an inflationary level, indicating continued inflationary pressures. The net percent of firms raising their average selling prices rose to 38% in June, the highest reading since February 2023, after a six-point increase to 36% in May. The latest reading was up from a low of 20% in August 2024 but well below a peak of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices eased to a still-elevated 32% in June following a seven-point rise to 34% in May (the highest level since November 2023); these readings remained above a low of 21% in April 2023.

Wage inflation remained relatively high in the June survey. A net 28% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, down from 31% in May and marking the lowest since November 2025. It was also below a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 17% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, slightly down from 18% in May and matching the lowest reading since July 2025; this remained below highs of 28% in November 2024, 30% in November 2023, and 32% in October 2022.

Inflation was cited as the single most important problem facing small businesses, as reported by 21% of NFIB members in June, up from 18% in May and representing the highest since October 2024; these readings were well below a peak of 37% in July 2022. Taxes ranked second as the next most important problem (alongside labor quality), as reported by 19% of respondents in June, unchanged from May. Labor quality also remained a key challenge for small businesses, as reported by 19% of respondents in June—the highest since December—compared with 13% in May (the lowest level since December 2016). Other concerns (in June vs. May) included labor costs (8% vs. 14%), government requirements (8% vs. 10%), insurance cost/availability (8% vs. 8%), poor sales (7% vs. 7%), and competition from large businesses (5% vs. 6%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

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- Uncertainty Idx down 2 pts. to 89, remaining well above the historical avg. of 68.
- Expectations for economy up 10 pts. to 13%, a four-month high.
- Expected real sales up 8 pts. to 9%, a five-month high.
- Plans to expand business up 1 pt. to 8%, highest in three mths.
- Firms raising avg. selling prices up 2 pts. to 38%, highest since Feb. ’23.
- Top three business concerns: inflation (21%), taxes (19%), and labor quality (19%).