Tom Moeller

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<p>U.S. import prices jumped another 1.1% last month following an upwardly
      revised 1.1% August increase. Again, the gain was driven by petroleum
      prices which posted a 4.6% surge (-0.1% y/y). The latest overall increase
      outpaced the 0.7% rise in the Action Economics survey.</p>
      <p>Nonpetroleum import prices rose 0.2% (-0.9% y/y) as foods, fees &amp;
      beverages costs jumped 1.7% (-1.9% y/y). Capital goods prices rose 0.2%
      (0.4% y/y) and auto prices rose 0.3% (1.6% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods
      prices were unchanged (0.6% y/y).</p>
      <p>U.S. export prices were up 0.8% led by a 1.1% rise in agricultural
      items (6.7% y/y). Nonagricultural commodity prices rose 0.7% (-1.5% y/y).
      Automotive vehicles &amp; product prices increased 0.3% (1.6% y/y) while
      nonauto consumer goods export prices gained 0.2% (-0.7% y/y) .Capital
      goods export prices were unchanged (1.0% y/y) for the second consecutive
      month.</p>
      <p>The import and export price series can be found in Haver's <b>USECON</b>
      database. Detailed figures are available in the <b>USINT</b> database. The
      expectations figure is in the <b>AS1REPNA</b> database. </p>
           
      <p>The import and export price series can be found in Haver's <b>USECON</b>
      database. Detailed figures are available in the <b>USINT</b> database. The
      expectations figure is in the <b>AS1REPNA</b> database. </p>
      <p><b>Price Level Targeting: The Fed Has It About Right </b>from the
      Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/econ/bullard/pdf/BullardEconomicClubofMemphisOct42012Final.pdf">here</a>.</p>
      
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      <p>&nbsp;</p>


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	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
        <thead>
          <tr>
  
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" ><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export
              Prices (NSA, %)</a></th>
            <th scope="col" >Sep</th>
            <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
            <th scope="col" >Sep Y/Y</th>
            <th scope="col" >2011</th>
            <th scope="col" >2010</th>
            <th scope="col" >2009</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Imports - All Commodities</td>
            <td>1.1</td>
            <td>1.1</td>
            <td>-0.7</td>
            <td>-0.6</td>
            <td>10.9</td>
            <td>6.9</td>
            <td>-11.5</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Petroleum</td>
            <td>4.6</td>
            <td>5.8</td>
            <td>-2.3</td>
            <td>-0.1</td>
            <td>36.5</td>
            <td>28.4</td>
            <td>-35.9</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Nonpetroleum</td>
            <td>0.2</td>
            <td>-0.2</td>
            <td>-0.3</td>
            <td>-0.9</td>
            <td>4.5</td>
            <td>2.8</td>
            <td>-4.1</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Exports - All Commodities</td>
            <td>0.8</td>
            <td>1.0</td>
            <td>0.4</td>
            <td>-0.5</td>
            <td>8.1</td>
            <td>4.9</td>
            <td>-4.6</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Agricultural</td>
            <td>1.1</td>
            <td>5.2</td>
            <td>6.0</td>
            <td>6.7</td>
            <td>22.3</td>
            <td>7.9</td>
            <td>-12.8</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Nonagricultural</td>
            <td>0.7</td>
            <td>0.4</td>
            <td>-0.2</td>
            <td>-1.5</td>
            <td>6.6</td>
            <td>4.6</td>
            <td>-3.7</td>
          </tr>
        </tbody>
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U.S. import prices jumped another 1.1% last month following an upwardly revised 1.1% August increase. Again, the gain was driven by petroleum prices which posted a 4.6% surge (-0.1% y/y). The latest overall increase outpaced the 0.7% [...]

U.S. Import Prices Remain Strong With Petroleum

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 <p><b>The U.S. August foreign trade deficit rose to an expected $44.2B
      from $42.5B in July</b>. Exports fell 1.0% (+1.6% y/y) while imports
      slipped 0.1% (+1.0% y/y). In chained 2005 dollars, the deficit in goods
      deteriorated to $48.4B in August, its deepest since April. Real exports
      fell 2.6% (+2.4% y/y) while real imports slipped 0.9% (+2.9% y/y).</p>
     
      <p>Real exports of foods, feeds &amp; beverages led the
      decline with an 11.9% drop (+2.6% y/y). Real exports of nonauto consumer
      goods slumped 2.6% (+1.6% y/y) while real exports of autos &amp; parts
      slipped 0.5% (+8.3% y/y). Offsetting these drops was a 1.0% rise (6.7%
      y/y) real exports of capital goods. Services exports rose 0.5% (1.8% y/y)
      as travel exports nudged up 0.2% (5.3% y/y) and passenger fares fell 1.2%
      (-2.8% y/y).</p>
      <p>Total nominal <b>imports</b>  <b>slipped 0.1% </b>(+1.0% y/y) in
      August, down for the fifth straight month, as goods imports fell 0.3%
      (+0.6% y/y). The <b>uptick in oil prices</b> to an average $94.36 per
      barrel helped raise the value of petroleum imports by 3.8% (-11.7% y/y).
      The quantity of petroleum imports increased 1.1% (-6.4% y/y).
      Elsewhere, in real terms there was a 3.0% drop
      (+16.5% y/y) in auto imports and a 2.5% decline (-2.3% y/y) in imports of
      nonauto consumer goods. Imports of capital goods fell 1.0% (+5.5% y/y) but
      imports of foods, feeds &amp; beverages rose 2.5% (6.5% y/y).&nbsp; </p>
      <p><b>By country</b>, the August goods trade deficit with mainland China
      improved slightly m/m to $28.7B, still near the record. Exports to China
      increased 2.2% y/y while U.S. imports slipped 0.2% y/y. With Japan, the
      deficit was roughly stable m/m at $6.7B as U.S. exports rose 15.9% y/y but
      U.S. imports increased 9.8% y/y. The deficit with the European Union
      remained nearly the deepest in five-years at $11.7B with a 4.5% y/y
      decline in U.S. exports and a 5.5% y/y rise in imports.</p>
      <p>The international trade data can be found in Haver's <b>USECON </b>database.
      Detailed figures are available in the <b>USINT</b> database. The
      expectations figures are from the Action Economics consensus survey, which
      is carried in the <b>AS1REPNA.</b></p>
      
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      <p>&nbsp;</p>


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            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Foreign Trade</th>
            <th>Aug</th>
            <th>Jul</th>
            <th>Jun</th>
            <th>Y/Y</th>
            <th>2011</th>
            <th>2010</th>
            <th>2009</th>
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        </thead>
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            <td class="firstcol" scope="col" >U.S. Trade Deficit</td>
            <td>$44.2B</td>
            <td>$42.5B</td>
            <td>$41.9B</td>
            <td>$44.8B<br>
              (8/11)</td>
            <td>$559.9B</td>
            <td>$494.7B</td>
            <td>$381.3B</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Exports (%)</td>
            <td>-1.0</td>
            <td>-1.1</td>
            <td>1.2</td>
            <td>1.6</td>
            <td>14.2</td>
            <td>16.7</td>
            <td>-14.5</td>
          </tr>
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            <td class="firstcol" >Imports</td>
            <td>-0.1</td>
            <td>-0.6</td>
            <td>-1.5</td>
            <td>1.0</td>
            <td>13.9</td>
            <td>19.5</td>
            <td>-23.0</td>
          </tr>
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            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Petroleum</td>
            <td>5.2</td>
            <td>-6.0</td>
            <td>-6.6</td>
            <td>-9.4</td>
            <td>30.7</td>
            <td>32.5</td>
            <td>-44.0</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Nonpetroleum goods</td>
            <td>-1.5</td>
            <td>0.2</td>
            <td>-0.9</td>
            <td>3.3</td>
            <td>12.1</td>
            <td>20.8</td>
            <td>-20.9</td>
          </tr>
        </tbody>
      </table>
      
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The U.S. August foreign trade deficit rose to an expected $44.2B from $42.5B in July. Exports fell 1.0% (+1.6% y/y) while imports slipped 0.1% (+1.0% y/y). In chained 2005 dollars, the deficit in goods deteriorated to $48.4B in [...]

U.S. Trade Deficit Increases; Exports Weaken & Oil Prices Rise

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      <p><b>Initial claims for jobless insurance fell sharply to 339,000</b> during the
      week ended October 6 versus a revised 369,000 during the prior week,
      initially reported as 367,000. Consensus expectations were for 368,000.
      The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 364,000.</p>
      <p><b>Continuing claims</b> for unemployment insurance slipped to 3.273M
      (-11.1% y/y) during the week of September 29. The insured rate of
      unemployment remained&nbsp; at 2.6% where it's been since March. This
      particular count covers only &quot;regular&quot; programs and does not
      include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance
      programs. In the week of September 22, the latest figure available, the <b>grand
      total of all benefit recipients again fell to a recovery low of 5.045M. </b>The
      latest was down -26.0% y/y and was off by more than one-half since the
      peak in January 2010.</p>
      <p><b>By state,</b> the insured unemployment rate continued to vary
      greatly with Virginia (1.25%), Indiana (1.48%), Ohio (1.56%), Texas
      (1.58%), Louisiana (1.76%), Georgia (1.87%), Florida (1.94%) and Michigan
      (2.07%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts
      (2.45%), Illinois (2.56%), New York (2.64%), Nevada (2.73%), Connecticut
      (2.95%), New Jersey (3.14%, California (3.14%) and Pennsylvania (3.21%).</p>
      <p><b>Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs</b> are contained in
      Haver's <b>WEEKLY</b> database, including the seasonal factor series, and
      they are summarized monthly in <b>USECON</b>. Data for individual states,
      including the unemployment rates that determine individual state
      eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific
      &quot;tiers&quot; of the emergency program, are in <b>REGIONW</b>, a
      database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action
      Economics consensus survey estimates are in <b>AS1REPNA</b>.</p>

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      <p>&nbsp;</p>


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	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>      
   
      
        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Unemployment Insurance
              (000s)</th>
            <th scope="col" >10/06/12</th>
            <th scope="col">09/29/12</th>
            <th scope="col">09/22/12</th>
            <th scope="col">Y/Y%</th>
            <th scope="col">2011</th>
            <th scope="col">2010</th>
            <th scope="col">2009</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Initial Claims</td>
            <td>339</td>
            <td>369</td>
            <td>363</td>
            <td>-15.7</td>
            <td>409</td>
            <td>459</td>
            <td>574</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Continuing Claims</td>
            <td>--</td>
            <td>3,273</td>
            <td>3,288</td>
            <td>-11.1</td>
            <td>3,745</td>
            <td>4,544</td>
            <td>5,807</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Insured Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
            <td>--</td>
            <td>2.6</td>
            <td>2.6</td>
            <td>3.0<br>
              (9/11)</td>
            <td>3.0</td>
            <td>3.6</td>
            <td>4.4</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Total &quot;All Programs&quot;
              (NSA)</td>
            <td>--</td>
            <td>--</td>
            <td>--</td>
            <td>-25.8</td>
            <td>7.750M</td>
            <td>9.850M</td>
            <td>9.163M</td>
          </tr>
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      </table>
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Initial claims for jobless insurance fell sharply to 339,000 during the week ended October 6 versus a revised 369,000 during the prior week, initially reported as 367,000. Consensus expectations were for 368,000. The four-week moving [...]

U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Plummet

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      <p><b>Initial claims for jobless insurance fell sharply to 339,000</b> during the
      week ended October 6 versus a revised 369,000 during the prior week,
      initially reported as 367,000. Consensus expectations were for 368,000.
      The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 364,000.</p>
      <p><b>Continuing claims</b> for unemployment insurance slipped to 3.273M
      (-11.1% y/y) during the week of September 29. The insured rate of
      unemployment remained&nbsp; at 2.6% where it's been since March. This
      particular count covers only &quot;regular&quot; programs and does not
      include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance
      programs. In the week of September 22, the latest figure available, the <b>grand
      total of all benefit recipients again fell to a recovery low of 5.045M. </b>The
      latest was down -26.0% y/y and was off by more than one-half since the
      peak in January 2010.</p>
      <p><b>By state,</b> the insured unemployment rate continued to vary
      greatly with Virginia (1.25%), Indiana (1.48%), Ohio (1.56%), Texas
      (1.58%), Louisiana (1.76%), Georgia (1.87%), Florida (1.94%) and Michigan
      (2.07%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts
      (2.45%), Illinois (2.56%), New York (2.64%), Nevada (2.73%), Connecticut
      (2.95%), New Jersey (3.14%, California (3.14%) and Pennsylvania (3.21%).</p>
      <p><b>Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs</b> are contained in
      Haver's <b>WEEKLY</b> database, including the seasonal factor series, and
      they are summarized monthly in <b>USECON</b>. Data for individual states,
      including the unemployment rates that determine individual state
      eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific
      &quot;tiers&quot; of the emergency program, are in <b>REGIONW</b>, a
      database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action
      Economics consensus survey estimates are in <b>AS1REPNA</b>.</p>
      <table class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0" width="1231">
        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="444">Unemployment Insurance
              (000s)</th>
            <th scope="col" width="111">10/06/12</th>
            <th scope="col" width="112">09/29/12</th>
            <th scope="col" width="112">09/22/12</th>
            <th scope="col" width="112">Y/Y%</th>
            <th scope="col" width="112">2011</th>
            <th scope="col" width="112">2010</th>
            <th scope="col" width="112">2009</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" width="444">Initial Claims</td>
            <td align="center" width="111">339</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">369</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">363</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">-15.7</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">409</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">459</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">574</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" width="444">Continuing Claims</td>
            <td align="center" width="111">--</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">3,273</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">3,288</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">-11.1</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">3,745</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">4,544</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">5,807</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" width="444">Insured Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
            <td align="center" width="111">--</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">2.6</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">2.6</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">3.0<br>
              (9/11)</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">3.0</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">3.6</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">4.4</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" width="444">Total &quot;All Programs&quot;
              (NSA)</td>
            <td align="center" width="111">--</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">--</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">--</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">-25.8</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">7.750M</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">9.850M</td>
            <td align="center" width="112">9.163M</td>
          </tr>
        </tbody>
      </table>
      </span>
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      <span id="articletitle">U.S. Trade Deficit Increases; Exports Weaken &amp;
      Oil Prices Rise</span><br>
      <span id="byline">by <a href="http://www.haver.com/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
      Moeller</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;October 11, 2012</span><span id="articletext">
      <p><b>The U.S. August foreign trade deficit deteriorated to an expected
      $44.2B from $42.5B in July</b>. Exports fell 1.0% (+1.6% y/y) while
      imports slipped 0.1% (+1.0% y/y). In chained 2005 dollars, the deficit in
      goods deteriorated to $48.4B in August, its deepest since April. Real
      exports fell 2.6% (+2.4% y/y) but real imports slipped 0.9% (+2.9% y/y).</p>
      <p>Overall<b>  U.S. exports declined 1.0% (</b>+1.6% y/y) and in real
      terms they fell 2.6%. Real exports of foods, feeds &amp; beverages led the
      decline with an 11.9% drop (+2.6% y/y). Real exports of nonauto consumer
      goods slumped 2.6% (+1.6% y/y) while real exports of autos &amp; parts
      slipped 0.5% (+8.3% y/y). Offsetting these drops was a 1.0% rise 96.7%
      y/y) in real exports of capital goods and&nbsp; . Services exports slipped
      0.3% (+2.3% y/y) as travel exports were essentially unchanged (6.7% y/y)
      and passenger fares fell 1.1% (+6.4% y/y).</p>
      <p>Total nominal <b>imports</b>  fell 1.5% (+2.2% y/y) in June, down for
      the third straight months, as goods imports fell 1.8% (+1.6% y/y). The <b>decline
      in oil prices</b>  to an average $100.13 per barrel helped lower the value
      of petroleum imports in June by 7.5% (-14.1% y/y). When adjusted for
      prices, petroleum imports increased 0.2% (-8.8% y/y).</p>
      <p>Elsewhere, there was weakness in imports led by real capital goods
      which were off 2.6% (+8.8% y/y). Real nonauto consumer goods imports also
      fell by 1.2% (-2.8% y/y) while real imports of foods, feeds &amp;
      beverages dropped 1.9% (-1.0% y/y).Offsetting these declines were real
      imports of autos &amp; products which rose 2.8% (28.2% y/y). Real imports
      of industrial supplies &amp; material increased 1.2% (-3.3% y/y) while
      real imports of other goods gained 1.0% (4.5% y/y). Finally, nominal
      imports of services rose 0.3% (5.1% y/y) as passenger fares rose 3.4%
      (14.5% y/y) but travel slipped 0.4% (+7.6% y/y).&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
      <p><b>By country</b>, the June goods trade deficit with mainland China
      deteriorated slightly m/m to $27.4B, its deepest since October. Exports to
      China increased 10.2% y/y while U.S. imports gained a lessened 4.5% y/y.
      With Japan, the deficit improved slightly to $6.0B as U.S. exports rose
      10.9% y/y but U.S. imports soared 26.7% y/y. The deficit with the European
      Union eased to $8.4B with a 2.5% y/y gain in U.S. exports and a 2.0% y/y
      decline in imports.</p>
      <p>The international trade data can be found in Haver's <b>USECON </b>database.
      Detailed figures are available in the <b>USINT</b> database. The
      expectations figures are from the Action Economics consensus survey, which
      is carried in the <b>AS1REPNA.</b></p>
      <table class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0" width="1231">
        <colgroup>
          <col>
          <col>
          <col>
          <col>
          <col>
          <col>
          <col>
          <col>
        </colgroup>
        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="338">Foreign Trade</th>
            <th scope="col" width="127">Aug</th>
            <th scope="col" width="127">Jul</th>
            <th scope="col" width="127">Jun</th>
            <th scope="col" width="127">Y/Y</th>
            <th scope="col" width="127">2011</th>
            <th scope="col" width="127">2010</th>
            <th scope="col" width="127">2009</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" width="338">U.S. Trade Deficit</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">$44.2B</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">$42.5B</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">$41.9B</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">$44.8B<br>
              (8/11)</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">$559.9B</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">$494.7B</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">$381.3B</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" width="338">Exports (%)</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">-1.0</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">-1.1</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">1.2</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">1.6</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">14.2</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">16.7</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">-14.5</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" width="338">Imports</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">-0.1</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">-0.6</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">-1.5</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">1.0</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">13.9</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">19.5</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">-23.0</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" width="338">&nbsp;&nbsp;Petroleum</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">5.2</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">-6.0</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">-6.6</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">-9.4</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">30.7</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">32.5</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">-44.0</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" width="338">&nbsp;&nbsp;Nonpetroleum goods</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">-1.5</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">0.2</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">-0.9</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">3.3</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">12.1</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">20.8</td>
            <td width="127" align="center">-20.9</td>
          </tr>
        </tbody>
      </table>
      </span>
    </div>
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    <div id="entire" class="col">
      <span id="articletitle">U.S. Import Prices Turn Higher on Petroleum</span><br>
      <span id="byline">by <a href="http://www.haver.com/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
      Moeller</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;October 11, 2012</span><span id="articletext">
      <p>U.S. import prices rose 0.7% in August, the first monthly increase
      since March, driven by a 4.1% surge in petroleum. July's total decreased
      0.7%, revised from -0.6% reported initially. The August total was actually
      somewhat lower than economists had forecast, with the Action Economics
      consensus survey calling for a 1.3% increase.</p>
      <p>Import prices continued lower in most nonpetroleum categories, with
      that subtotal down 0.2% following a 0.3% decline in July. Food and
      beverages were off 0.9% after a 1.0% drop in July. Most nonoil industrial
      supply prices fell, but there were gains in nonoil fuels and some building
      materials so that category only edged down 0.1% after July's sharp 1.3%
      fall. Capital goods prices eased 0.1% and July was revised from -0.1%
      originally to flat overall in August. Automotive vehicles were also flat
      in August after a 0.3% rise in July while other consumer goods imports
      fell 0.3% in price, after a 0.1% decrease in July.</p>
      <p>U.S. export prices were up 0.9%, led by agricultural items, which
      surged 5.1% following their strong 6.3% gain in July. Nonagricultural
      commodity prices rose 0.4%, an upturn after three consecutive declines.
      Food items were important here too, as processed foods and industrial
      agriculture-related items both gained roundly 5% in August. Capital goods
      export prices and automotive both declined in August by 0.2%, and consumer
      goods exports were flat. Total export prices were still down from a year
      ago, by 0.9%.</p>
      <p>The import and export price series can be found in Haver's <b>USECON</b>
      database. Detailed figures are available in the <b>USINT</b> database. The
      expectations figure is in the <b>AS1REPNA</b> database. </p>
      <p><b>Price Level Targeting: The Fed Has It About Right </b>from the
      Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/econ/bullard/pdf/BullardEconomicClubofMemphisOct42012Final.pdf">http://research.stlouisfed.org/econ/bullard/pdf/BullardEconomicClubofMemphisOct42012Final.pd</a></p>
      <table class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0" width="1231">
        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="559"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export
              Prices (NSA, %)</a></th>
            <th scope="col" width="95">Sep</th>
            <th scope="col" width="95">Aug</th>
            <th scope="col" width="95">Jul</th>
            <th scope="col" width="95">Sep Y/Y</th>
            <th scope="col" width="96">2011</th>
            <th scope="col" width="96">2010</th>
            <th scope="col" width="96">2009</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" width="559">Imports - All Commodities</td>
            <td align="center" width="95"></td>
            <td align="center" width="95">0.7</td>
            <td align="center" width="95">-0.7</td>
            <td align="center" width="95">-2.2</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">10.9</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">6.9</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">-11.5</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" width="559">&nbsp;&nbsp;Petroleum</td>
            <td align="center" width="95"></td>
            <td align="center" width="95">4.1</td>
            <td align="center" width="95">-2.1</td>
            <td align="center" width="95">-6.4</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">36.5</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">28.4</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">-35.9</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" width="559">&nbsp;&nbsp;Nonpetroleum</td>
            <td align="center" width="95"></td>
            <td align="center" width="95">-0.2</td>
            <td align="center" width="95">-0.3</td>
            <td align="center" width="95">-0.9</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">4.5</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">2.8</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">-4.1</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" width="559">Exports - All Commodities</td>
            <td align="center" width="95"></td>
            <td align="center" width="95">0.9</td>
            <td align="center" width="95">0.4</td>
            <td align="center" width="95">-0.9</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">8.1</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">4.9</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">-4.6</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" width="559">&nbsp;&nbsp;Agricultural</td>
            <td align="center" width="95"></td>
            <td align="center" width="95">5.1</td>
            <td align="center" width="95">6.3</td>
            <td align="center" width="95">7.7</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">22.3</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">7.9</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">-12.8</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" width="559">&nbsp;&nbsp;Nonagricultural</td>
            <td align="center" width="95"></td>
            <td align="center" width="95">0.4</td>
            <td align="center" width="95">-0.3</td>
            <td align="center" width="95">-1.9</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">6.6</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">4.6</td>
            <td align="center" width="96">-3.7</td>
          </tr>
        </tbody>
      </table>
      </span>
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Robert Brusca

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      <span id="articletext">
      <p></p>

   <p><a href="/comment/121010l_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/121010l.png"></a></p>

<p>
    Industrial output fell in August in Germany, Finland and in the UK. But for most EMU members listed in this table IP advanced. Over three months IP is up very strongly in Portugal (31.8% pace) and Greece (24.7% pace). France and Spain are each up at a strong rate as well. Ireland and Germany show increases while only Finland, Italy and the UK show declines.
</p>
<p>
Very clearly the countries that have been the weakest are showing some gains at long last. This is a trend that has been emerging over the past several months. Still, the peripheral countries are not out of the woods and still have a long way to go. German IP is only 3% below its cycle peak. Italy, Spain and Greece are about 25% below their respective cycle peaks. But the short term rise has been echoed by a recent rebound in peripheral equity markets as well. Over four weeks Greece’s stock market is up by 12.3%, Italy is up by 5.2% Portugal is up 3.2%. Meanwhile in Germany, The Netherlands, and Finland, traditional core-value EMU members, the equity markets have advanced by only 2.5%, 2.2% and 1.8%, respectively.
</p>
<p>
Still in Angela Merkel’s trip to Greece the reception was not warm. There is still a great deal of resistance to austerity but also a growing feeling that Europe will not disintegrate over this conflict. The latter development is the reason for the recent bounce in peripheral markets, but is this belief true?
</p>
<p>
There is more talk of fiscal unity as eleven euro zone countries agreed on Tuesday to press ahead with a disputed tax on financial transactions aimed at making trading bear some of the financing burden in the Zone. The ‘Tobin tax’ is now closer to being implemented over the opposition of the Britain and Sweden and others. 
</p>
<p>
This follows a soak the rich theme that began in the US, migrated to France where one scheme was implemented and has seen calls for a ‘mansion tax; arise in the UK. The markets transaction tax is seen as a way to ding the financial sector for the trouble it caused. But the tax will also slowdown that sector and may slow growth along with it. 
</p>
<p>
With taxes come consequences.
</p>
<p>
But for now the e-Zone is growing better than we would have expected. While the weakness seems to be migrating from the periphery into the core, the core nations of Germany and France still have pretty good three month industrial growth and solid industrial growth in the quarter-to-date.
</p>
<p>
The IMF has urged more fiscal; action on the Zone and that is a call that seems both correct and misguided at the same time. The IMF wants Europe to deepen financial and fiscal ties. Further austerity can hardly help these nations, but reform is still is greatly needed. Growth would do a lot to solve the problems in the periphery but it is not clear that those nations are competitive enough to develop and to sustain growth. But for now there is a clear rebound in IP and in equity markets from some very low levels. Yet, the kind of binding that the IMF urges on the Zone is still lacking and all European officials can say is that no one can appreciate how far they have come. Maybe it’s because outsiders appreciate how much farther they have yet to go to achieve stability
</p>
<p>
If Europe is determined to stick together and to bear and share the costs of adjustment more fiscal continuity would be desirable. But if the Greeks are to be on their own and the Spain is on its own, and so on, no sort of fiscal mixing makes sense. The German plan was for fiscal constraint (deficit to GDP ratios) and isolation, the way you might treat the outbreak of a disease. But if Europe instead were to be fiscally joined that would be a strong commitment to the beleaguered periphery and would imply and clear large transfer from the wealthier core nations. But the wealthier nations do not seem to be on board for that and yet give lip-service to EMU continuity. No wonder they want a Tobin tax. 
</p>
<p>
Taxes on ‘markets’ are often thought to be taxes on no man but that is wrong, they get passed on.  Moreover, the tax could cut down growth of the sector and harm the evolution of growth overall and reduce tax revenues.  But Europe seems to be entering some sort of desperation stage and it still is not clear how it will play out. Its policies and pronouncements are not consistent with any singe sustainable approach. Europe is still running stop-gap policies. The ECB seems committed to stopper the financial markets fall-out but the fiscal help to enable that to work is not yet in-place...and may never be ‘in-place.’
</p>
<p>
EMU can have unity without impunity. Yet the richer countries still think the poor need to pay for their sins. The sins of the rich are hidden in their banking sector. And so as long as dodge and denial dominates the Euro-sphere we can expect to get some strange policy leanings like the move toward a Tobin Tax.   
</p>


<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
        <thead>
		<tr>
            <th scope="col" colspan="9"><b>Main Euro-Area Countries and UK IP in MFG</b></th>
  </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr class="even">
      <td class="firstcol" ></td>
      <td colspan="3">Mo/Mo</td>
      <td>Aug<br>12</td>
      <td>Aug<br>12</td>
      <td>Aug<br>12</td>
      <td>Jul<br>12</td>
      <td></td>
    </tr>
    <tr class="grey3">
      <td class="firstcol">MFG Only</td>
      <td>Aug<br>12</td>
      <td>Jul<br>12</td>
      <td>Jun<br>12</td>
      <td>3<br>Mo</td>
      <td>6<br>Mo</td>
      <td>12<br>Mo</td>
      <td>12<br>Mo</td>
      <td>Q:3<br>D</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td class="firstcol">Germany</td>
      <td>-0.4%</td>
      <td>1.5%</td>
      <td>-0.9%</td>
      <td>0.7%</td>
      <td>2.5%</td>
      <td>-1.7%</td>
      <td>-1.6%</td>
      <td>6.9%</td>
    </tr>
    <tr class="odd">
      <td class="firstcol">France</td>
      <td>1.8%</td>
      <td>1.0%</td>
      <td>0.3%</td>
      <td>13.2%</td>
      <td>5.0%</td>
      <td>-0.4%</td>
      <td>-2.6%</td>
      <td>8.9%</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td class="firstcol">Finland</td>
      <td>-0.9%</td>
      <td>1.3%</td>
      <td>-1.9%</td>
      <td>-5.8%</td>
      <td>2.7%</td>
      <td>-1.3%</td>
      <td>2.4%</td>
      <td>0.4%</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
      <td>1.1%</td>
      <td>-0.2%</td>
      <td>-1.1%</td>
      <td>-1.0%</td>
      <td>-1.9%</td>
      <td>-7.4%</td>
      <td>-7.2%</td>
      <td>-1.1%</td>
    </tr>
    <tr class="odd">
      <td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
      <td>1.0%</td>
      <td>0.1%</td>
      <td>1.7%</td>
      <td>12.0%</td>
      <td>-0.5%</td>
      <td>-4.4%</td>
      <td>-4.0%</td>
      <td>9.3%</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td class="firstcol">Ireland</td>
      <td>0.0%</td>
      <td>0.8%</td>
      <td>-0.3%</td>
      <td>2.2%</td>
      <td>13.7%</td>
      <td>-0.6%</td>
      <td>4.2%</td>
      <td>5.4%</td>
    </tr>
    <tr class="odd">
      <td class="firstcol">Greece</td>
      <td>3.8%</td>
      <td>3.6%</td>
      <td>-1.7%</td>
      <td>24.7%</td>
      <td>16.2%</td>
      <td>2.7%</td>
      <td>-4.7%</td>
      <td>24.0%</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td class="firstcol">Portugal</td>
      <td>6.8%</td>
      <td>1.2%</td>
      <td>-0.8%</td>
      <td>31.8%</td>
      <td>15.3%</td>
      <td>-2.2%</td>
      <td>-0.3%</td>
      <td>28.5%</td>
    </tr>
    <tr class="odd">
      <td class="firstcol">UK: EU<br>member</td>
      <td>-1.1%</td>
      <td>3.1%</td>
      <td>-2.9%</td>
      <td>-4.1%</td>
      <td>0.8%</td>
      <td>-1.2%</td>
      <td>-0.7%</td>
      <td>4.9%</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
</span>
</body></html>

Industrial output fell in August in Germany, Finland and in the UK. But for most EMU members listed in this table IP advanced. Over three months IP is up very strongly in Portugal (31.8% pace) and Greece (24.7% pace). France and Spain [...]

EMU IP trends turn mixed…just like the rest of EMU

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   <p><a href="/comment/121010i_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/121010i.png" align="left"></a>

      The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated in its <b>Job Openings &amp;
      Labor Turnover Survey</b> (JOLTS) that the job openings rate held at 2.6%
      in August and was improved versus the recession low of 1.6%. <i>The job
      openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of
      the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. </i>The
      actual number of job openings fell 0.9% to 3,561 (+13.0% y/y).</p>
      <p>The <b>private-sector job openings rate</b> held m/m at 2.6%. It has
      moved steadily higher versus the recession low of 1.7%. The job openings
      rate in professional &amp; business services recovered m/m to 3.8%. In
      construction the rate also rose to 1.5% but leisure &amp; hospitality fell
      back sharply to 2.9%, a six month low. The rate in education &amp; health
      services fell to 3.1%, also a six month low. In manufacturing the rate
      fell to 2.1%, off sharply from the March high of 2.5%. The job openings
      rate in <b>government</b> held at an improved 1.7%.</p>
      <p>In a sign of better employment growth, the <b>hires rate</b> was 3.3%,
      down slightly from May but up from the recession low of 2.8%<i>. The hires
      rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment. </i>The
      hires rate in the private sector recovered m/m to 3.7% and the
      government's rate ticked up to a still-low 1.4%. The factory sector hires
      rate fell sharply to 1.9%, the low for the economic recovery. <b>Overall
      hires</b> in the private sector jumped 2.5% (3.9% y/y). Professional &amp;
      business services hires gained 7.2% (4.9% y/y) and leisure &amp;
      hospitality hires rose 1.5% (2.8% y/y). These increases were offset by a
      4.5% decline (-9.3% y/y) in factory sector hiring.</p>
      <p>The <b>job separations rate</b> rose to 3.3%. The actual number of
      separations jumped 6.5% (5.9% y/y. <i>Separations include quits, layoffs,
      discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. </i>The <b>layoff
      &amp; discharge rate </b>alone recovered to 1.4% and reversed most of the
      prior two months' declines. The private sector layoff rate was 1.6% while
      in government it was 0.5%.</p>
      <p>The <b>JOLTS</b> survey dates only to December 2000 and the figures are
      available in Haver's <b>USECON</b> database.
            </p>

   <p><a href="/comment/121010j_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/121010j.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/121010k_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/121010k.png"></a></p>
      <p>&nbsp;</p>


<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" ><b><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB14/@EB14.HTM">JOLTS
              (Job Openings &amp; Labor Turnover Survey)</a></b></th>
            <th scope="col" ><b>Aug</b></th>
            <th scope="col" ><b>Jul</b></th>
            <th scope="col" ><b>Jun</b></th>
            <th scope="col" ><b>Aug'11</b></th>
            <th scope="col" ><b>2011</b></th>
            <th scope="col" ><b>2010</b></th>
            <th scope="col" ><b>2009</b></th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr class="even">
            <td class="firstcol" colspan="8"><b>Job
              Openings, Total</b></td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol"  >&nbsp;Rate (%)</td>
            <td   >2.6</td>
            <td   >2.6</td>
            <td   >2.7</td>
            <td   >2.3</td>
            <td   >2.6</td>
            <td   >2.2</td>
            <td   >1.8</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol"  >&nbsp;Total (000s)</td>
            <td   >3,561</td>
            <td   >3,593</td>
            <td   >3,722</td>
            <td   >3,152</td>
            <td   >3,540</td>
            <td   >2,902</td>
            <td   >2,432</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="grey3">
            <td class="firstcol" colspan="8" ><b>Hires,
              Total</b></td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol"  >&nbsp;Rate (%)</td>
            <td   >3.3</td>
            <td   >3.2</td>
            <td   >3.2</td>
            <td   >3.2</td>
            <td   >38.0</td>
            <td   >37.4</td>
            <td   >35.5</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol"  >&nbsp;Total(000s)</td>
            <td   >4,390</td>
            <td   >4,278</td>
            <td   >4,284</td>
            <td   >4,221</td>
            <td   >50,006</td>
            <td   >48,647</td>
            <td   >46,386</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="grey3">
            <td class="firstcol" colspan="8" ><b>Layoffs
              &amp; Discharges, Total</b></td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol"  >&nbsp;Rate (%)</td>
            <td   >1.4</td>
            <td   >1.2</td>
            <td   >1.3</td>
            <td   >1.3</td>
            <td   >15.6</td>
            <td   >16.7</td>
            <td   >20.5</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol"  >&nbsp;Total (000s)</td>
            <td   >1,848</td>
            <td   >1,582</td>
            <td   >1,761</td>
            <td   >1,755</td>
            <td   >20,678</td>
            <td   >21,737</td>
            <td   >26,731</td>
          </tr>
        </tbody>
      </table>
      </span>
</body></html>  

The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that the job openings rate held at 2.6% in August and was improved versus the recession low of 1.6%. The job openings rate is the number of [...]

U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Remains High

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      <p></p>

   <p><a href="/comment/121010e_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/121010e.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/121010f_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/121010f.png"></a></p>

            <p>The Mortgage Bankers Association index of total mortgage applications
        slipped 1.2% last week (+35.5% y/y) led by a 2.0% decline (+41.8% y/y)
        in applications to <i>refinance</i> an existing loan. Home <i>purchase</i>
        applications gained 2.4% last week (13.3% y/y) with the recent recovery
        in home sales. Applications for fixed interest rate loans rose 38.6% y/y
        as lower mortgage rates were locked in. Conversely, adjustable rate loan
        applications fell 13.1% y/y.</p>
        <p>The effective rate on fixed-interest, conventional 15-year mortgages
        held steady last week at 2.98% but remained down compared to 3.47% in
        January. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed rate ticked up to 3.67%
        but the effective rate on a Jumbo 30-year loan declined to 3.85%. Though
        it's narrowed slightly of late, the spread between 15- and 30-year loan
        rates continued wide by historical standards. The effective interest
        rate on an adjustable 5-year mortgage was stable at 2.73% and was down
        from its 3.93% high during February of last year.</p>
        <p>The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top
        lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase
        and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S.
        residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks,
        commercial banks and thrifts. The figures for weekly mortgage
        applications are available in Haver's <b>SURVEYW</b> database.&nbsp;
            </p>

   <p><a href="/comment/121010g_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/121010g.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/121010h_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/121010h.png"></a></p>
      <p>&nbsp;</p>


<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
        <colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
        <thead>
            <tr>
              <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >MBA Mortgage
                Applications (SA, 3/16/90=100)</th>
              <th scope="col" >10/05/12</th>
              <th scope="col" >09/28/12</th>
              <th scope="col" >09/21/12</th>
              <th scope="col" >Y/Y%</th>
              <th scope="col" >2011</th>
              <th scope="col" >2010</th>
              <th scope="col">2009</th>
            </tr>
          </thead>
          <tbody>
            <tr>
              <td class="firstcol" >Total Market Index</td>
              <td>1,008.1</td>
              <td>1,020.4</td>
              <td>875.1</td>
              <td>35.5</td>
              <td>572.3</td>
              <td>659.3</td>
              <td>736.4</td>
            </tr>
            <tr class="odd">
              <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Purchase</td>
              <td>198.9</td>
              <td>194.2</td>
              <td>187.0</td>
              <td>12.3</td>
              <td>182.6</td>
              <td>199.8</td>
              <td>263.5</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
              <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Refinancing</td>
              <td>5,772.6</td>
              <td>5,888.0</td>
              <td>4,921.4</td>
              <td>41.8</td>
              <td>2,858.4</td>
              <td>3,348.1</td>
              <td>3,509.2</td>
            </tr>
            <tr class="odd">
              <td class="firstcol" >15-Year Mortgage Effective
                Interest Rate (%)</td>
              <td>2.98</td>
              <td>2.97</td>
              <td>3.08</td>
              <td>3.71<br>
                (10/11)</td>
              <td>3.97</td>
              <td>4.39</td>
              <td>4.85</td>
            </tr>
          </tbody>
        </table>

</html>

The Mortgage Bankers Association index of total mortgage applications slipped 1.2% last week (+35.5% y/y) led by a 2.0% decline (+41.8% y/y) in applications to refinance an existing loan. Home purchase applications gained 2.4% last [...]

U.S. Mortgage Applications Remain High

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</head>
<body>
	  <br>
      
      <span id="articletext">
      <p></p>

   <p><a href="/comment/121010a_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/121010a.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/121010b_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/121010b.png"></a></p>

            <p><b>The pump price for a gallon of regular
      gasoline recovered five cents last week to </b>$3.85, the highest level in
      three weeks. Haver Analytics constructs seasonal factors to account for
      regular volatility and the adjusted price rose seven cents to $3.85 per
      gallon, the highest level since early-April.</p>
      <p>The weakening of global economies helped the price for a barrel of <b>light
      sweet crude oil</b> fall last week to $90.82 per barrel. Yesterday, the
      cost of crude recovered to $92.39 per barrel. Prices peaked at $113.93 in
      April, 2011. Haver's seasonally adjusted crude oil price dipped to $89.14
      per barrel last week. Brent crude firmed last week to $111.84 per barrel
      and rose further to $114.98 yesterday.</p>
      <p><b>Natural gas </b>prices rose last week to $3.21 per mmbtu, a ten
      month high, but yesterday fell back slightly to $3.18.</p>
      <p>The<b> demand for gasoline fell 2.5% y/y.</b> The demand for residual
      fuel oil, used for heating, fell 43.2% y/y and distillate demand was off
      4.5% y/y. <b>Inventories</b> of crude oil and petroleum products increased
      1.5% y/y. That comparison was improved from the 5.0% y/y decline this past
      fall.</p>
      <p>The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and
      can be found in Haver's <b>WEEKLY </b>database. The daily figures are in <b>DAILY</b>
      and the gasoline demand figures are in <b>OILWKLY.</b>
            </p>

   <p><a href="/comment/121010c_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/121010c.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/121010d_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/121010d.png"></a></p>
      <p>&nbsp;</p>


<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" height="25" width="580">Weekly
              Price</th>
            <th scope="col" >10/08/12</th>
            <th scope="col" >10/01/12</th>
            <th scope="col" >09/24/12</th>
            <th scope="col" >Y/Y%</th>
            <th scope="col" >2011</th>
            <th scope="col" >2010</th>
            <th scope="col" >2009</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Retail Regular Gasoline
              ($ per Gallon, Regular)</td>
            <td  >3.85</td>
            <td  >3.80</td>
            <td  >3.83</td>
            <td  >12.7</td>
            <td  >3.52</td>
            <td  >2.78</td>
            <td  >2.35</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Light Sweet Crude Oil,
              WTI ($ per bbl.)</td>
            <td  >90.82</td>
            <td  >91.46</td>
            <td  >94.33</td>
            <td  >13.9</td>
            <td  >95.14</td>
            <td  >79.51</td>
            <td  >61.39</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)</td>
            <td  >3.21</td>
            <td  >2.93</td>
            <td  >2.75</td>
            <td  >-9.1</td>
            <td  >3.99</td>
            <td  >4.40</td>
            <td  >3.95</td>
          </tr>
        </tbody>
      </table>
      </span>
      </body></html>


The pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline recovered five cents last week to $3.85, the highest level in three weeks. Haver Analytics constructs seasonal factors to account for regular volatility and the adjusted price rose seven [...]

U.S. Gasoline Prices Reverse Earlier Decline

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

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New orders for durable goods rose 0.5% (7.2% y/y) in September after a 3.0% jump, which followed a 2.8% July decline. A 1.0% shortfall had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

A 0.4% (15.8% y/y) rise in transportation sector orders followed an 8.0% August surge, led by commercial aircraft orders. Motor vehicle & parts orders rose 0.4% (4.0% y/y) after increasing 0.8% in August. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.6% (3.1% y/y) after a 0.5% gain. Machinery orders edged 0.1% higher (6.1% y/y) in September after a 2.2% rise. Orders for computers & electronic products rose 0.5% (3.3% y/y) following a 1.1% decline while electrical equipment & appliance orders strengthened 1.5% (6.6% y/y), the strongest of six consecutive increases. Orders for fabricated metal products increased 0.5% (0.8% y/y) for a second month while primary metals orders surged 1.4% (5.4% y/y) after a 0.5% rise.

Shipments of all manufacturing industries eased 0.1% in September (+2.3% y/y) after falling 0.3% in August. Shipments of durable goods edged 0.1% higher (4.8% y/y) after easing 0.1%. Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft, an indicator of equipment investment in the national accounts, rose 0.9% (4.1% y/y) in September after falling 0.1% in August. Machinery shipments increased 1.4% (4.6% y/y) after easing 0.1% while computer & electronic product shipments were off 0.1% (+4.9% y/y) following a 0.2% dip. Electronic equipment, appliances & components shipments rose 0.4% (4.1% y/y) after rising 0.1%. Motor vehicle & parts shipments rose 0.5% (3.9% y/y) during September following a 0.6% rise. Nondurable goods shipments eased 0.2% (-0.1% y/y) after 0.4% decline.

Unfilled durable goods orders increased 0.7% (8.2% y/y) in September for the second month in a row. Excluding a 1.0% surge in transportation, unfilled increased a steady 0.2% (0.9% y/y). Total factory sector inventories eased 0.1% (+1.4% y/y). Durable goods inventories slipped 0.1% (+1.9% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Excluding the transportation sector, durable goods inventories rose 0.2% (2.3% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories were roughly stable (+0.6% y/y) for the second straight month.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Broad-based orders improvement follows August jump.
- Durable shipments gain reverses prior month’s dip.
- Order backlogs grow for second month; inventories ease.

U.S. Advance Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Increase in September

Sandy Batten

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 216,000 (unchanged y/y) in the week ended November 22 from a slightly upwardly revised 222,000 in the prior week (previously 220,000). This was the lowest weekly reading since April and was tied for the lowest since February. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 226,000 initial claims for last week. The four-week moving average of initial claims edged down to 223,750 from 224,750.

Federal government workers filed 1,724 claims in the week ended November 15, the fourth consecutive weekly decline from a recent high of 10,062 in the week of October 18.

Continuing claims (previous claims filers who are still receiving unemployment benefits) continued to edge higher, rising to 1.960 million in the week of November 15 from a downwardly revised 1.953 million in the prior week (previously 1.974 million). While new claims have been well contained recently, continuing claims have risen persistently since midyear, indicating that while the pace of layoffs has not increased meaningfully, hiring has slowed. Consequently, those unemployed are having more difficulty finding new jobs and hence are receiving unemployment benefits for longer, a sign that labor market conditions are softening.

Federal government employees continuing benefits fell to 33,083 in the week of November 8, the first weekly decline since the end of August, from 38,867 in the previous week.

In the week ending November 15, the insured rate of unemployment (the number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment) was unchanged at 1.3%. It has been at this rate since the end of May.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ended November 8, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.30%), Washington (2.20%), Massachusetts (1.90%), District of Columbia (1.90%), and California (1.80%). The lowest were in South Dakota (0.30%), Florida (0.30%), North Carolina (0.40%), and Louisiana (0.40%). Rates in other notable states include Pennsylvania (1.40%), Illinois (1.50%), New York (1.60%), Texas (1.10%), Michigan (1.40%) and Ohio (0.80%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial unemployment claims fell to 216,000, the lowest weekly figure since April.
- Continued claims edged up to 1.96 million, indicating that the unemployed are still having increasing difficulty finding a job.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fell in Latest Week

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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The number of weekly mortgage loans rose 0.2% (52.7% y/y) during the week ended November 21 after declining 5.2% (+62.0% y/y) during the week ended November 14, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house surged 7.6% (18.8% y/y) in the latest week after declining 2.3% (+24.0% y/y) in the prior week. Applications for loan refinancing declined 5.7% (+117.3% y/y) in the week ended November 21, following a decline of 7.3% (+124.7% y/y) in the week ended November 14.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased 3bps to 6.58% in the week ended November 21 from 6.55% during the prior week. The rate on a 15-year fixed rate loan eased 2bps to 5.98% in the latest week from 6.00%, while interest rates on a 30-year JUMBO loan rose 14bps to 6.65% from 6.51%. Rates on a 5-year ARM dropped 31bps to 5.64% from 5.95%. The November 14 rate was the highest rate since the first week of September.

Loans to refinance an existing mortgage fell to 53.4% of total applications in the week ended November 21 from 55.4% in the prior week. The percentage of total loans that were ARMs rose to 7.9% from 7.5% one week earlier.

The average loan size rose 0.2% w/w to $395,600 in the week ended November 21 from $394,900 the prior week. The size of conventional purchase loans declined 1.4% w/w to $427,200 from $433,400, while the size of refinanced loans rose 1.1% w/w to $368,000 from $363,900 one week earlier.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase surged, while those for refinancing declined.
- Interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgage inched up for the fourth consecutive week.
- Average loan size rose in the latest week.

U.S. Weekly Mortgage Applications Inched Up in The Latest Week

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The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence fell 7.1% in November to 88.7. A level of 92.5 had been expected this month in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The decline in Consumer Confidence was the fourth consecutive monthly drop. It followed a 0.1% October easing (revised -1.0%) and an unrevised 2.2% September shortfall. The index was 21.4% below its peak last November.

The Present Situation index declined 3.3% (-10.3% y/y) after rising 2.9% in October, revised from 1.4%, and falling an unrevised 3.7% in September. The Expectations Index weakened 12.0% (-32.6% y/y) after falling 3.5% in October, revised from -3.9%, after easing an unrevised 0.4% in September.

The percentage of respondents assessing business conditions as “good” fell to 20.1% in November after rising to 20.7% in October. It was the weakest reading since April. The percentage assessing conditions as “bad” rose to 16.9% from 14.5% in October, the most in over a year. The appraisal of labor market conditions weakened as a lessened 27.6% described “jobs plentiful” versus 28.6% in October. That remained below a high of 56.7% in March of 2022. Jobs were viewed as “hard to get” by a lessened 17.9% of respondents this month, but that was increased from a low of 10.5% in February 2023. The labor market differential calculated by Haver Analytics (the percentage of consumers who think jobs are plentiful minus the percentage who believe that jobs are currently hard to get) declined to 9.7% compared to 10.3% in October and 8.7% in September. This measure remained below a high of 47.1% in March 2022. It has a 60% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years.

Expectations for business conditions continued to deteriorate this month as a lessened 15.9% of respondents expect conditions to improve over the next six months, after 18.9% did so in October. A higher 27.7% expect them to worsen, after rising from 22.2% in October. On employment, 14.6% expect the number of jobs to increase over the next six months versus 15.8% in October. The percentage expecting the number of jobs to decline in the next six months fell to 27.5% after rising to 28.8% in October	. A lessened 15.3% of respondents expect income to increase in six months, down from 18.2% in October. That remained off a high of 20.7% in November of last year and compares to a 13.8% who expect income to decrease, up from 11.8% in October.

The expected rate of price inflation over the next twelve months held steady at 5.7% after falling from 5.8% in September and 6.1% in August. These remain up from a low of 5.0% last November. Fifty percent of respondents expect interest rates to rise this year, up from a low of 47.2% October of 2024. The percentage of respondents expecting equity prices to increase over the next twelve months declined to 48.1%, down from 50.3% in October. The percentage expecting a decline in stock prices eased to 28.5% after falling to 28.8% in October.

The percentage of respondents planning to buy a home fell to 4.9% this month down from a high of 6.7% in May. Plans to purchase an automobile declined sharply to 10.9% of respondents this month, down from 13.15 averaged in the fourth quarter of last year. These readings, nevertheless, remain up from a low of 10.6% in April.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Confidence level moves to lowest since April.
- Present situation index and expectations decline.
- Inflation expectations are contained.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Weakens in November; Inflation Expectations Steady

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Total retail sales increased 0.2% (4.3% y/y) in September following an unrevised 0.6% August rise and a 0.6% July improvement. The gain compared to a 0.4% increase expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales gains were spotty last month. Sales excluding autos increased 0.3% (4.1% y/y) in September after rising 0.6% in August, revised from 0.7% after gaining an unrevised 0.4% in July. A 0.4% gain had been expected.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline and food services, dipped 0.1% (+4.1% y/y) after increasing 0.6% in August, revised from 0.7% after an unrevised 0.5% July gain. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in the NIPA accounts.

Motor vehicle & parts dealer sales declined 0.3% (+5.1% y/y) during September after rising 0.6% in August and improving 1.6% during July. This compares to unchanged unit sales of motor vehicles last month which followed a 0.6% August decline. Gasoline service station sales rose 2.0% (3.1% y/y) in September after rising 0.4% in August. Gasoline prices rose fell 0.7% (-1.7% y/y) during September after rising 0.8% in August. Sales of building materials & garden equipment edged 0.2% higher (-2.4% y/y) after rising 0.3% in August.

Elsewhere, sales were lackluster in September. Nonstore retail sales declined 0.7% (+6.0% y/y) after increasing 1.6% in August. Clothing store sales were off 0.7% (+6.7% y/y) following a 1.0% increase. Sporting goods & hobby shop sales declined 2.5% (-0.2% y/y) after strengthening 1.0%. Sales at electronics & appliance stores weakened 0.5% (+6.3% y/y) after easing 0.3% in August. General merchandise store sales improved 0.1% (1.6% y/y) as they did in July, while department store sales weakened 0.7% (-3.3% y/y) after falling 0.9%. Furniture & home furnishings store sales rose 0.6% (1.2% y/y) in September following a 2.0% decline. Miscellaneous store sales rose 2.9% (8.2% y/y) and reversed a 2.9% decline in August.

In the nondiscretionary sales sector, food & beverage store sales rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y) during September following a 0.6% August rise. Health & personal care store sales strengthened 1.1% (5.6% y/y) after slipping 0.1% in August.

Restaurant & drinking establishment sales rose 0.7% (6.7% y/y) in September after rising 1.0% in August.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economic Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Auto sales decline; rise in nonauto sales is restrained.
- Sales ease in retail control group.
- Clothing & nonstore sales decline.

Economy in Brief: 2012

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U.S. Import Prices Remain Strong With Petroleum

U.S. Trade Deficit Increases; Exports Weaken & Oil Prices Rise

U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Plummet

U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Plummet

EMU IP trends turn mixed…just like the rest of EMU

U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Remains High

U.S. Mortgage Applications Remain High

U.S. Gasoline Prices Reverse Earlier Decline