Economy in Brief: January 2021

The table shows the early reporters of GDP in the EMU plus the U.S. result. On the far right, I present a percentile ranking of the year-on-year GDP growth rates on data back to 1997. Despite a massive rebound in GDP in Q3 – and one [...]

• Pending home sales fall for fourth consecutive month. • Sales are mixed across the country. Pending home sales eased 0.3% (+21.4% y/y) in December, after falling 2.5% in November, according to the National Association of Realtors [...]

• Business activity index in Chicago rises 5.1 points. • Production, new orders, backlogs and inventories contribute to gain. • Employment index declined. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer rose 5.1 points in January [...]

• Spending on durable & nondurable goods moves sharply lower. • Wage growth remains moderate. • Pricing power increases. Consumers remained cautious last month. Personal consumption expenditures declined 0.2% (-2.0% y/y) during [...]

• Overall compensation increased 0.7% in Q4; year-on-year growth accelerates slightly to 2.5%. • Wages and salaries up 0.9% (2.6% y/y) while benefits gain 0.6% (2.3% y/y). The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers rose 0.7% [...]

• • PREVIOUS>>>>>>>The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to $84.8 billion in November..... • Narrowing larger than expected. • Still, net exports were a meaningful drag on overall GDP growth in Q4. • Export [...]

• • • Leading index rises 0.3% in December as slowdown from the 0.7% gain in November. • Seven components increase, led by ISM manufacturing new orders. • Three decrease, most notably jobless claims. The Conference Board’s Composite [...]

• December sales increase in 2 regions, decrease in 2 regions. • Median price rises 3.5% to new all-time high. Sales of new single-family homes edged upward in December to 842,000 (SAAR), +1.6% m/m and 15.2% y/y. from 829,000 in [...]