Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050228f.jpg" width="353">
Although they are declining, pessimists among consumers and businessmen in the 25 country European Union continue to outweigh the optimists. The excess of pessimists among consumers held steady in February at 10% while the excess of pessimists among industrial businessmen rose 1 percentage point to 5%.
The picture for &quot;The 25&quot; is slightly better than that of the 12 countries comprising the Euro Zone, suggesting that the non Euro Zone countries--largely Eastern European countries, plus the U.K, Sweden and Denmark--are less pessimistic than those in the Euro Zone. The first chart shows consumer confidence in the Euro 12 and the Euro 25.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050228e.jpg" width="353">
The data are not aggregated for the non Euro Zone countries, but the fact that pessimism among &quot;The 25&quot; is less than than of &quot;The 12&quot; suggests that pessimism among the non Euro countries is considerably less. Data released today by France and Slovakia show that consumer confidence in Slovakia, for example, has become decidedly less pessimistic beginning in early 2004--perhaps coinciding with the enlargement of the EU-- and is now less pessimistic than France. In the U.K., another non Euro Zone country, the balance of pessimists over optimists has over recent years been much smaller that the balance for the Euro Zone. Currently the pessimists and optimists in the U. K. are evenly balanced.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Feb 05</th>
<th scope="col">Jan&nbsp;05</th>
<th scope="col">Feb 04</th>
<th scope="col">M/M Dif</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y Dif</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2004&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2003</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp; 2002&nbsp; &nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro 12</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>-13</td>
<td>-13</td>
<td>-15</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>-14</td>
<td>-18</td>
<td>-11</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Industrial Confidence</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>-10</td>
<td>-11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Euro 25</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>-10</td>
<td>-10</td>
<td>-12</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>-12</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>-9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Industrial Confidence</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>-11</td>
<td>-12</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France: HH Confidence</td>
<td>-23</td>
<td>-25</td>
<td>-23</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>-22</td>
<td>-27</td>
<td>-16</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Slovakia: Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>-15.3</td>
<td>-14.2</td>
<td>-35.9</td>
<td>-1.1</td>
<td>20.6</td>
<td>-23.9</td>
<td>-34.8</td>
<td>-30.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">U.K.: Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>-3</td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>-4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Although they are declining, pessimists among consumers and businessmen in the 25 country European Union continue to outweigh the optimists. The excess of pessimists among consumers held steady in February at 10% while the excess of [...]

Confidence in the Euro Zone and the Broader EU-25

Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050228c.jpg" width="353">
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer rose for the second month and increased to 62.7 in February, beating Consensus expectations for a decline to 60.2.
During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between the level of the Chicago Business Barometer and the three month change in factory sector industrial output. That correlation has risen to 82% during the last five years.
The employment index surged 4.9 points to 57.7, the highest level since November. During the last ten years there has been a 78% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment. The new orders index rose to the highest level since October.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050228d.jpg" width="353">
The index of prices paid fell sharply to the lowest level in nearly a year. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the &quot;core&quot; intermediate goods PPI.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF05/@EF05.HTM">Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Feb&nbsp;&#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Business Barometer</td>
<td>62.7</td>
<td>62.4</td>
<td>64.7</td>
<td>62.9</td>
<td>54.6</td>
<td>52.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; New Orders</td>
<td>68.5</td>
<td>65.8</td>
<td>66.4</td>
<td>67.0</td>
<td>58.0</td>
<td>56.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid</td>
<td>70.1</td>
<td>76.5</td>
<td>67.7</td>
<td>80.1</td>
<td>55.8</td>
<td>56.9</td>
</tr>
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The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer rose for the second month and increased to 62.7 in February, beating Consensus expectations for a decline to 60.2. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between [...]

Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Up Again

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050228b.jpg" width="353">
Sales of new single-family homes fell a sharp 9.2% in January to 1.106M but the previously reported slight gain in December was revised to a 5.6% increase. Consensus estimates had been for sales of 1.125M.
The decline in sales last month was led by a 40.3% drop in the Midwest (-33.2% y/y). In the Northeast sales fell 17.1% (-33.7% y/y) and in the South sales also fell by 3.3% (+1.3% y/y). In the West sales rose 5.6% in January (+16.6% y/y).
The median price of a new single family home fell to $199,400 (-4.8% y/y).
The figures from the Census Department reflect homes sold as opposed to the figures on existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors which reflect closings of sales in earlier months. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E904/@E90401/@E90401.HTM">Homes Sales (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Single-Family</td>
<td>1,106</td>
<td>1,218</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
<td>1,196</td>
<td>1,089</td>
<td>976</td>
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Sales of new single-family homes fell a sharp 9.2% in January to 1.106M but the previously reported slight gain in December was revised to a 5.6% increase. Consensus estimates had been for sales of 1.125M. The decline in sales last [...]

New Home Sales Fell

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050228a.jpg" width="353">
Personal income dropped last month 2.3% following the 3.7% jump in December which was driven by Microsoft&#39;s dividend payment. Consensus expectations had been for a 2.6% decline. Excluding the dividend effect personal income increased 0.5% last month after a 0.6% rise in December. Figures from July through December were revised
Wage &amp; salary income rose 0.6% (5.8% y/y) in January after an upwardly revised 0.5% December gain. Factory sector wages inched 0.1% higher but rose 4.8% y/y. Earlier figures were revised up sharply
Personal disposable income fell 2.6% (5.8% y/y) after the 4.1% surge in December. Adjusted for price inflation disposable income fell 2.8% m/m but rose 3.5% y/y.
Personal consumption fell slightly after the 0.8% surge in December and spending was lightly short of Consensus expectations for a 0.1% rise. Durable goods spending fell 4.3% and reversed a like gain in December due to lower motor vehicle sales. Spending on nondurables rose 0.8% despite the decline in gasoline prices last month and services spending rose 0.4% (5.3% y/y).
The PCE chain price index rose 0.2% in January. The 0.3% rise in the price index less food &amp; energy was the steepest since December 2002.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E711/@E71102/@E71102.HTM">Disposition of Personal Income</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Personal Income</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Personal Consumption</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Savings Rate</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">PCE Chain Price Index</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Less food &amp; energy</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
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Personal income dropped last month 2.3% following the 3.7% jump in December which was driven by Microsoft's dividend payment. Consensus expectations had been for a 2.6% decline. Excluding the dividend effect personal income increased [...]

U.S. Personal Income Down

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050228a.jpg" width="353">
Personal income dropped last month 2.3% following the 3.7% jump in December which was driven by Microsoft&#39;s dividend payment. Consensus expectations had been for a 2.6% decline. Excluding the dividend effect personal income increased 0.5% last month after a 0.6% rise in December. Figures from July through December were revised
Wage &amp; salary income rose 0.6% (5.8% y/y) in January after an upwardly revised 0.5% December gain. Factory sector wages inched 0.1% higher but rose 4.8% y/y. Earlier figures were revised up sharply
Personal disposable income fell 2.6% (5.8% y/y) after the 4.1% surge in December. Adjusted for price inflation disposable income fell 2.8% m/m but rose 3.5% y/y.
Personal consumption fell slightly after the 0.8% surge in December and spending was lightly short of Consensus expectations for a 0.1% rise. Durable goods spending fell 4.3% and reversed a like gain in December due to lower motor vehicle sales. Spending on nondurables rose 0.8% despite the decline in gasoline prices last month and services spending rose 0.4% (5.3% y/y).
The PCE chain price index rose 0.2% in January. The 0.3% rise in the price index less food &amp; energy was the steepest since December 2002.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E711/@E71102/@E71102.HTM">Disposition of Personal Income</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Personal Income</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Personal Consumption</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Savings Rate</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">PCE Chain Price Index</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Less food &amp; energy</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
New Home Sales Fell 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> February 28, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050228b.jpg" width="353">
Sales of new single-family homes fell a sharp 9.2% in January to 1.106M but the previously reported slight gain in December was revised to a 5.6% increase. Consensus estimates had been for sales of 1.125M.
The decline in sales last month was led by a 40.3% drop in the Midwest (-33.2% y/y). In the Northeast sales fell 17.1% (-33.7% y/y) and in the South sales also fell by 3.3% (+1.3% y/y). In the West sales rose 5.6% in January (+16.6% y/y).
The median price of a new single family home fell to $199,400 (-4.8% y/y).
The figures from the Census Department reflect homes sold as opposed to the figures on existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors which reflect closings of sales in earlier months. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E904/@E90401/@E90401.HTM">Homes Sales (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Single-Family</td>
<td>1,106</td>
<td>1,218</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
<td>1,196</td>
<td>1,089</td>
<td>976</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Up Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> February 28, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050228c.jpg" width="353">
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer rose for the second month and increased to 62.7 in February, beating Consensus expectations for a decline to 60.2.
During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between the level of the Chicago Business Barometer and the three month change in factory sector industrial output. That correlation has risen to 82% during the last five years.
The employment index surged 4.9 points to 57.7, the highest level since November. During the last ten years there has been a 78% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment. The new orders index rose to the highest level since October.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050228d.jpg" width="353">
The index of prices paid fell sharply to the lowest level in nearly a year. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the &quot;core&quot; intermediate goods PPI.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF05/@EF05.HTM">Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Feb&nbsp;&#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Business Barometer</td>
<td>62.7</td>
<td>62.4</td>
<td>64.7</td>
<td>62.9</td>
<td>54.6</td>
<td>52.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; New Orders</td>
<td>68.5</td>
<td>65.8</td>
<td>66.4</td>
<td>67.0</td>
<td>58.0</td>
<td>56.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid</td>
<td>70.1</td>
<td>76.5</td>
<td>67.7</td>
<td>80.1</td>
<td>55.8</td>
<td>56.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050225c.jpg" width="353">
Labor markets in disparate countries presently face disparate employment conditions. In data reported today, France, for instance, saw its January unemployment rate touch 10%, following more than a year hovering around 9.9%. Rates rose for both men and women and for adults both over and under age 50. Obviously, a one-decimal move is not much, but it still signals that the French economy struggles, along with most of its neighbors, to find improvement for its labor force.
Hungary has a similar concern, as its unemployment rate rose to 6.6% in January, the highest since these data started monthly publication in 2001 (they are reported as 3-month moving averages, however, and are contiguous with the separate quarterly series also maintained in Haver&#39;s EMERGECW database). While some of this latest monthly change is seasonal, weakness in Hungarian employment is clearly the major source of the unemployment problem. A brief spurt in employment occurred in 2003 and kept the unemployment rate steady, but that played out last year, as seen in the table below.
Norway has somewhat the opposite situation, as a modest recovery in employment last year helped to keep the unemployment rate low and steady. In December, it remained at 4.4%, the same as the average for 2004 overall and off a mid-2003 peak of 4.7%.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050225d.jpg" width="353">
Brazil calculates its unemployment rate based on both the total working-age population and the &quot;economically active&quot; population. With a large segment not involved in commercial activity, the participation rate is about 57%, so there is considerable difference in the two unemployment measures. The unemployment count in 2004 was 2.49 million; this is 6.6% of the total working-age population and 11.5% of the &quot;economically active&quot; population. &quot;Working age&quot; in Brazil begins at age 10, and last year was 38.06 million people. Data for Brazil are shown in Haver&#39;s EMERGELA database.
Whichever unemployment rate base is used, the unemployment rate in Brazil has come down substantially in the last nine months or so. Following some weakness in 2003 and early last year, employment has rebounded and unemployment has fallen sharply. Thus, the unemployment rate relative to the economically active population (what we&#39;d call the &quot;labor force&quot;) has fallen from a recent peak of 13.1% in April 2004 to 10.2% in January 2005. Brazil&#39;s hesitant recovery continues.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Unemployment Rates &amp; Related Data</th>
<th scope="col">Jan 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">France (seas adj)</td>
<td>10.0</td>
<td>9.9</td>
<td>9.9</td>
<td>9.9</td>
<td>9.9</td>
<td>9.7</td>
<td>9.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Hungary*</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>5.8</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>5.8</td>
<td>5.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment (12-mo&nbsp; % change)</td>
<td>-0.7</td>
<td>-1.1</td>
<td>-1.4</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>-1.3</td>
<td>0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Norway (seas adj)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>4.5</td>
<td>3.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment (12-mo&nbsp; % change)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>-0.7</td>
<td>0.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Brazil: % of Working Age Population**</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>5.4</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>7.0</td>
<td>6.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; % of Economically Active Population</td>
<td>10.2</td>
<td>9.6</td>
<td>10.6</td>
<td>11.7</td>
<td>11.5</td>
<td>12.3</td>
<td>11.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Labor markets in disparate countries presently face disparate employment conditions. In data reported today, France, for instance, saw its January unemployment rate touch 10%, following more than a year hovering around 9.9%. Rates [...]

January Unemployment Rates Up in France and Hungary, Down in Norway and Brazil

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050225b.jpg" width="353">
Sales of existing single family homes fell for the second month and earlier sales estimates were revised down. January sales of 5.94M fell 0.5% from December which fell 2.8% from November. Consensus expectations had been for December sales of 6.75M.
Improved methodology and better modeling led to monthly revisions back through 1999. The figures reflect closings of home sales in earlier months.
Sales were mixed m/m across the country&#39;s regions. In the Northeast sales fell 3.7% (+6.8% y/y) and in the Midwest sales fell 5.8% (+9.2% y/y). In the South sales rose 3.0% (+13.3% y/y) and in the West sales ticked 0.7% higher (+17.7% y/y).
The median price of an existing home single family home fell m/m to $186,900 (+9.8% y/y).
The latest release from the National Association of Realtors is available <a href="http://www.realtor.org/publicaffairsweb.nsf/Pages/EHSJan05?OpenDocument"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E905/@E90501/@E90501.HTM">Existing Home Sales (000, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Existing Single-Family</td>
<td>&nbsp;5,940</td>
<td>&nbsp;5,970</td>
<td>12.5%</td>
<td>5,913</td>
<td>5,441</td>
<td>4,995</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Sales of existing single family homes fell for the second month and earlier sales estimates were revised down. January sales of 5.94M fell 0.5% from December which fell 2.8% from November. Consensus expectations had been for December [...]

U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell Again

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050225a.jpg" width="353">
US real GDP growth in 4Q04 was revised up to 3.8% (AR), about the same rate of growth as in the prior quarter. The Consensus expectation had been for 3.6% growth in 4Q.
Trade sector deterioration is now estimated to have subtracted less from GDP growth; 1.43 percentage points versus 1.73 points estimated earlier. Statistics Canada corrected a $1.4B underestimation of U.S. exports to Canada during November. The correction contributed to a revision in total US goods exports to a 1.9% rate of growth (6.6% y/y) from -6.8% estimated in the advance report. Imports of goods rose 15.3% (11.4% y/y), revised from 12.2%.
An upward revision to inventory accumulation indicated that production increases to raise inventories added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth versus 0.4 percentage points estimated earlier.
Domestic demand growth also was revised up slightly to 4.5% as growth in business fixed investment in equipment &amp; software was raised to 18.0% (14.4% y/y) from 14.9%. Residential investment growth also was raised to 2.1% (6.2% y/y) from 0.3% but growth in PCE was lowered to 4.2% (3.7% y/y) from 4.6%.
Price inflation was revised up slightly to 2.1%. The price index for domestic demand grew 2.7% (2.9% y/y) driven by an upwardly revised 5.4% (4.9% y/y) increase in the state &amp; local government price index.
Corporate profits for 4Q will be released on March 30th and will incorporate the effects of thespecial dividend paid to shareholders by Microsoft Corporation.
<a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2005/200502/200502pap.pdf">The Reform of 1979: How It Happened and Why</a> is from the Research &amp; Statistics and Monetary Affairs Division of the US Federal Reserve Board.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM">Chained 2000$, % AR</a></th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;04 (Prelim.</th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;04 (Advance)</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Final Sales</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Trade Effect</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Final Demand</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chained GDP Price Index</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

US real GDP growth in 4Q04 was revised up to 3.8% (AR), about the same rate of growth as in the prior quarter. The Consensus expectation had been for 3.6% growth in 4Q. Trade sector deterioration is now estimated to have subtracted [...]

US GDP Growth Revised Up

Outlook strengthens for US while it weakens for other major economies

Crude petroleum prices are having a big impact on inflation expectations

Inflation surprising to upside in the US; by contrast to the downside in the euro area

 Gross Domestic Income is catching up with GDP

FOMC expects GDP growth above trend over the next three years

US core CPI inflation has begun to reaccelerate

Fiscal-policy aided factory building in the U.S. provided an unusually large boost to growth last year

US consumers much more optimistic than those in the Euro area and the UK

  Job openings take a step down in 2024

Fed's super core services inflation measure pushing up core rate

Blue Chip forecasters expect significant monetary easing this year except in Japan

Euro area economy stagnating while US grows above trend

Chinese and Japanese equity markets are diverging markedly

Chinese population declines in 2023 for second consecutive year

Outlook for US GDP growth on the rise; declining in euro area, Japan and China

There are still 1.4 job openings for every unemployed person in the US

US PCE inflation over the past six months has slowed to the Fed's 2% target

FOMC think rate hikes are done and looks for 75bps of decline in 2024

Weaker economic data surprises pushing down US interest rates

Recent disinflation has been widespread across Europe and North America

Recent decline in US inflation expectations helping to lower interest rates

China is losing its luster as foreign direct investment heads out

Blue Chip forecasters think Fed will be tighter for longer

Systemic stress on rise in Europe, less so in US

Recent increase in longer-term US market interest rates not due to inflation

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Andrew Cates

**The IMF’s global economic outlook**
One of the most notable themes that emerged from the IMF’s latest economic outlook this week is the resilience of the world economy in recent months. This resilience has led to significant upward revisions to its GDP outlook for several large economies compared to the projections made last October (see chart 1). The most notable upgrades were made to the US and to several large emerging market economies, including India and China. These were partially offset, however, by some small downgrades to the outlook for Europe and Japan. The factors driving this global outperformance were diverse but mostly revolve around loose fiscal policy, big drawdowns in household savings, and lower inflation, fostered, in turn, by supply-side improvements.

240418Z1.jpg

**Geopolitical risk and oil**
The extent to which these forecasts are now at risk will hinge on several factors but increasing geopolitical instability in the Middle East is clearly one of them. As chart 2 below indicates, a generic indicator of global geopolitical risk has spiked sharply higher over the past few days, largely thanks to the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran. The most important channel through which this could generate economic instability is higher oil prices. But heightened risk aversion in the Middle East, and more broadly among global investors, could also hamper economic activity.

240418Z2.jpg

**Global oil supply**
Global oil prices have, so far, remained well-behaved against this backdrop. However, there is no assurance that this stability will continue if geopolitical risks escalate. Iran plays a crucial role in the global oil market due to its significant oil reserves and production capacity. More broadly, the Middle East holds nearly half of the world's proven oil reserves (see chart 3) and accounted for 33 percent of global oil production in 2022. Therefore, any disruptions or changes in the region's oil production or exports could significantly affect the global oil market, influencing both supply and prices worldwide.

240418Z3.jpg

**Oil prices, inflation and monetary policy**
While oil prices have remained relatively stable in recent days, they have generally been on the rise since the beginning of the year. This increase has been a major factor in slowing down or even reversing disinflationary trends in many countries. Additionally, it has led to reduced expectations for looser monetary policies, especially in the US. It is certainly no coincidence, against that backdrop, that oil prices appear to have enjoyed a close lead relationship with US Treasury yields over the past few months as well (see chart 4).

240418Z4.jpg

**US financial conditions**
A major challenge for central banks in adjusting monetary policy is the feedback loops between economic activity, financial conditions, and monetary policy itself. For instance, earlier expectations of a more lenient monetary policy contributed to looser financial conditions in the US. This, in turn, may have provided greater support to the US economy than the Federal Reserve had anticipated (see chart 5). This indicates that while many metrics suggest that US monetary policy is stringent, indicators of financial conditions present a more nuanced view.

240418Z5.jpg

**China’s economy**
Finally, and on a more positive note, this week’s dataflow for China has offered a more upbeat take on recent economic developments. For instance, GDP in Q1 2024 grew by 5.3% y/y, up from 5.2% in the Q4 2023, and significantly above expectations which were centered on a growth rate of 4.8%. A closer examination shows that net trade significantly boosted economic growth over the past three months, thanks to robust growth in export volumes during January and February. Whether this strength will be sustained, however, remains to be seen not least against the more risky global economy backdrop discussed above.

240418Z6.jpg

Investors have grown increasingly cautious about the economic outlook in recent days, partly thanks to heightened geopolitical instability in the Middle East. That Fed Chair Powell has also expressed greater concern about the US inflation outlook has not helped, not least as higher oil prices (and the resilience of the US economy) had already been unsettling investors’ inflation expectations. The timing of this week’s publication of a more optimistic economic outlook from the IMF (see chart 1) also appears a little unfortunate. The extent to which those forecasts may be jeopardized will arguably now hinge on the interplay between geopolitical instability, oil prices, inflation and monetary policy (see charts 2, 3, 4 and 5). It is noteworthy, nevertheless, and against these considerations, that China’s economy has also been punching more positively according to some additional data that were published this week (see chart 6).

Charts of the Week: Geopolitics, Oil, the IMF and China

240418J4.jpg

240418K4.jpg

Sales of existing homes fell 4.3% (-3.7% y/y) during March to 4.19 (SAAR) million from an unrevised 4.38 million in February. January sales also were unrevised at 4.0 million. Sales remained increased from the low of 3.85 million in October 2023. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected March sales of 4.13 million units. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed in earlier months.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) improved 2.5% (4.8% y/y) to $393,500 after rising to $383,800 in February. Prices remained 4.9% below the June 2022 peak of $413,800. The median price of an existing single-family home in March improved 2.4% (4.7% y/y) to $397,200 after rising 1.3% in February. The median price for condos & co-ops surged 4.2% (5.8%) to $357,400 after rising 1.0% in February.

Single-family home sales fell 4.3% (-2.8% y/y) last month to 3.80 million units after rising 10.3% February. Sales remained 35.0% below their high of 5.85 million in October 2020. Condo and co-op sales declined 4.9% (-11.4% y/y) to 390,000 after rising 2.5% in February. Sales have declined 47.3% since the January 2021 high of 740,000.

Sales declined throughout most of the country last month. Sales in the West fell 8.2% (-3.7% y/y) to 780,000 after rising 16.4% in February. Sales in the Midwest weakened 1.9% (-1.0% y/y) to 1.01 million last month after rising 8.4% in February. Sales in the South declined 5.9% (-5.0% y/y) in March to 1.90 million after rising 9.8% in February. Sales in the Northeast rose 4.2% (-3.8% y/y) to 500,000 after holding steady for three straight months.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 4.7% (14.4% y/y) to 1.1 million in March after rising 5.0% in February. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) rose to 3.2 months from 2.9 months in February. The record low in supply of 1.6 months was reached in January, 2022. These figures date back to January 1999.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

240418L4.jpg

240418M4.jpg

- Sales retreat from twelve-month high.
- Home prices rebound to seven-month high.
- Sales decline in much of country.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline in March

240418N20.jpg

240418O20.jpg

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported in its April survey of manufacturing activity that the Current Activity Diffusion Index jumped to 15.5 this month from 3.2 in March and 5.2 in February. An index reading of 0.9 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Philly Fed survey responses were collected from April 8 to April 15.

The ISM-Adjusted Composite Index, calculated by Haver Analytics from the survey results, improved to 49.8 this month from 48.0 in March. It was the highest level since August 2022, but remaining below 50, it still suggests a net contraction in activity. It compared to a March 2023 low of 39.6.

Changes in the individual series were mixed this month. New orders surged to 12.2 from 5.4 in March. An improved 32.5% of respondents reported an increase in new orders while a lessened 20.3% reported a decline. The shipments index rose to 19.1 from 11.4, as a higher 36.5% reported increased shipments and a steady 17.4% reported declines. The delivery time reading rose to -9.4 from -16.7 as 10.0% reported faster delivery speeds, while 19.4% reported slower speeds.

Working lower, the unfilled orders measure eased to 0.8 in April from 1.0 in March. A lessened 13.6% reported an increase in order backlogs while 12.8% reported a decline. The inventories reading dropped to -8.9 from 4.4, negative for the sixth month in the last seven.

Job market conditions deteriorated this month as indicated by an employment reading which fell to -10.7 from -9.6 in March. Six percent of respondents reported more hiring while 16.4% reported less. Also weakening, the average workweek figure declined to -18.7 from -0.2.

The index of prices paid surged this month to 23.0 after a March decline to 3.7. This reflected 25.9% of respondents reporting increased prices and 2.8% reporting a decline. The prices received index improved to 5.5 from 4.6 and remained up from a low of -2.7 in May of last year. A steady 11.6% of respondents reported price increases and a lessened 6.2% reported declines.

Expectations for business conditions in the next six months deteriorated slightly with the April reading of 34.3 down from 38.6 in April. It remained up, however, from -4.0 in January. Expected shipments & new orders eased but employment expectations rose to the highest level in nine months. The expected workweek reading surged to the highest level since October 2021. Expectations for prices paid also strengthened to the highest level since June 2022. The prices received index eased, however, after strengthening in April.

The diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The Philadelphia Fed data can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

240418P20.jpg

240418Q20.jpg

- Composite index moves to highest level in two years as new orders & shipments strengthen.
- Prices paid measure jumps; prices received increases as well.
- Expectations ease slightly but remain positive.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Surges in April

240418A8.jpg

240418B8.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance were steady at 212,000 seasonally adjusted in the week ended April 13, with the earlier week revised marginally from 211,000 initially reported. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected the latest week at 215,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 214,500 in the April 13 week, unchanged from the week before. These latest amounts extend a narrow range for initial claims of 187,000 to 261,000 that has prevailed since the middle of 2021.

Insured unemployment, also known as continued weeks claimed, was 1.812 million in the week ended April 6, up slightly from 1.810 million the prior week. The earlier week was revised down from 1.817 million reported before. As with initial claims, these continuing claims have hovered in a narrow range for an extended period; they have run from 1.728 million to 1.829 million since May 2023.

The insured unemployment rate, that is, the amount of insured unemployment as a percentage of covered employment, is yet again 1.2% in the April 6 week. It has been at that amount continually since May 11, 2023.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

240418C8.jpg

240418D8.jpg

- Initial claims maintain tight range for almost 2 years.
- Continuing claims still fairly steady since May 2023.
- Insured unemployment rate holds at 1.2%, also since May 2023.

U.S. Jobless Claims Steady at a Moderate 212,000 in April 13 Week

Robert Brusca

240418E1.jpg

Registrations for cars in Europe for March fell by 8.8% month-to-month after falling by 1% in February. January, however, had been a strong month for registrations in Europe. The sequential trends are mixed and do not show a clear way forward. The 12-month change in sales/registrations falls 4.7%. Over six months registrations fall harder at an 11.9% annual rate, but then over three months registrations gain at a 7% annual rate. These data are prone to volatility. To adjust for that, I execute the same calculations on three-month average data to smooth out the volatility and let the trend shine through. Unfortunately, this procedure still does not produce a clearer picture of trend.

Chart 1, executed on year-over-year growth rates, shows registrations gradually losing momentum among reporting countries. Sequential growth rates across countries finds Germany and Spain with accelerating sales/registrations. France and Itay with fairly clear trends showing decelerating sales. Meanwhile, the U.K. trend shows confusion with no clear pattern emerging.

Looking very broadly, all reporting countries show registrations lower in March everywhere except for France, in 2024 compared to January 2020 before Covid struck. France is the lone exception that shows registrations in March higher by just 2.2% than they were over four years ago. That is not exactly a stunning success.

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Europe has been struggling. Weakness in vehicle sales is not news. After Covid, vehicle registrations dropped sharply then recovered but dropped again in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In early 2022 registrations bottomed out and rebounded into 2023, but by later in 2023 the rebound had run its course and trends turned flat and since have decayed.

The ECB is set to provide some help if it can follow through. Markets expect an ECB rate cut in June of this year. But U.S. and U.K. experiences might provide some caution or counterpoint as inflation has kicked up its heels in the U.S. and put the Fed’s well-telegraphed plan to ease on the back burner. In the U.K., inflation has simply slowed its progress and seems to be moving sideways.

Global economic conditions have been disrupted and under pressure dating back to the Great Recession. That recovery was drawn out and slow with unemployment rates falling continuously in recovery but slowly in the recession aftermath. Then Covid struck and created a new disruption that since has been magnified by the Ukraine invasion, Hamas’ attack on Irael, Israel’s response to ferret out Hamas, and now Iraq’s attack on Israel has given way to the re-emergence of an active axis of evil with Iran, China and North Korea providing support and arms to Russia in its aggression toward Ukraine. It is not clear when the global economy will ever be the same as these shocks and alliances disrupt global activity and drive wedges between countries that used to trade freely. The global economy is in a very disrupted and dangerous state of play.

Economy in Brief: February 2005

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Confidence in the Euro Zone and the Broader EU-25

Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Up Again

New Home Sales Fell

U.S. Personal Income Down

U.S. Personal Income Down

January Unemployment Rates Up in France and Hungary, Down in Norway and Brazil

U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell Again

US GDP Growth Revised Up