Economy in Brief: 2019

Retail gasoline prices eased to $2.58 per gallon last week (+1.6% y/y) from $2.59 in the previous week. Prices typically weaken this time of year. Haver Analytics constructs factors to adjust for the seasonal variation in gasoline [...]

The behavior of the U.S. economy so far in 2019 reminds me of its behavior in 1967. The pace of U.S. economy activity slipped significantly in early 1967, but an “official” recession was narrowly avoided thanks to some timely easing [...]

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index of -1.3 during November compares to October's -5.1. It remained down sharply from the February 2018 high of [...]

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that its National Activity Index fell to -0.71 during October from an unrevised -0.45 in September. It was the lowest level in six months. The three-month moving average smoothes out [...]

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its index of regional manufacturing business activity remained below zero for the fifth consecutive month. During November, the index held steady at -3. The negative figures [...]

Let's begin looking at conditions in Europe. The graph tells the over-arching story of a weakening manufacturing sector whose weakness has largely been resisted by the services sector. Sure, both services and manufacturing are in [...]

Minimal pricing power in the factory sector continues. The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 0.5% during the last four weeks and 0.6% over the last [...]

Initial claims for unemployment insurance remained at 227,000 (1.3% year-on-year) during the week ending November 16, while the previous week was revised slightly higher (was 225,000). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected [...]