Robert Brusca

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The chart on the left makes it quite clear that manufacturing in the euro area has turned lower, according to the Markit manufacturing PMIs. France, after lingering behind Germany and the EMU totals, surged to its cycle high two months ago but has fallen from that very sharply and now shows the weakest PMI reading of this group. France has been struggling throughout the recovery. It continues to struggle more than the average EMU member.

The EMU manufacturing measure slipped from its preliminary reading and now sits at a level of 51.8 in June. At that level the EMU manufacturing gauge sits in the 55th percentile of its historic queue, not a very strong reading. The raw PMI reading shows EMU is only 1.8 points above being neutral. While the queue percentile reading shows us that the queue standing is only 5.3 percentage points above its historic median. In this case, these are equivalent characterizations of how poorly the EMU is doing: barely expanding and only 5% above its median.

The German PMI slipped to 52 in June from 52.3 in May, marking its lowest reading in seven months. German manufacturing is not only of moderate valuation compared to other PMI measures in June, but in the queue sense it is the fourth weakest reading for the EMU members in the table. The German queue standing is in the 52nd percentile, the same value as its raw diffusion reading of 52. However, Italy's raw reading of 52.6 is just above the German raw reading; yet it sits in the 73rd percentile of its historic queue, a much higher standing than for Germany. Remember that the percentile standings are relative measures. What this difference between Italy and Germany tells us is that the German manufacturing PMI is used to being much higher so that at a level of 52, it's considered weak against its historic metrics. But Italy's manufacturing sector is not usually so strong. The level of 52.6 is much stronger when compared with its historic queue.

The strongest queue reading from the EMU countries in the table comes from Spain in the 90.1 percentile of its historic queue. That's followed by Italy in the 73rd percentile and the Netherlands in the 56.6 percentile. Below the Netherlands comes Germany at the 52nd percentile, then Greece at its 43rd percentile, Austria in the 33.6 percentile, and France in the 25th percentile. The French PMI for manufacturing is weaker than its current level of 48.2 only 25% of the time. Clearly France continues to struggle mightily.

Outside of the EMU area, but inside the European Union, we list for members with the UK being the strongest on a manufacturing queue percentile standing in the 94th percentile. It's followed by Sweden in the 71st percentile, Hungary in the 47th percentile, and Denmark in the 23rd percentile.

Returning to the EMU members, eight of the 10 reporting members saw their PMI values reduced in June. Clearly momentum in the euro area has hit a wall of some sort around midyear. We have seen in some of the individual country statistics erode, with the German ZEW and Ifo indices backing off; still, the German consumer confidence gauge from GfK has continued to be elevated. 

Europe's labor market data are up to date only through May. The EU shows some further step down in the unemployment rate from 10.4% in April to 10.3% in May. The EMU rate of 11.6% has held for two months in a row. The number unemployed has fallen in May in both the EU and in the EMU areas by 0.2% in each case. Of 11 EMU countries that have reported topical unemployment rates, eight of them show net declines in unemployment over the last three months. Seven of them show unemployment declines over six months and five of them show unemployment declines over 12 months. On a trend basis, unemployment is still falling in the euro area. But the pace of the decline has tapered off. In Germany this month, there's been a slight increase in a number of unemployed even though the German unemployment rate has remained the same at 5.1% for two months running.

One of things that the euro area is trying to deal with is a tremendous degree of variation among its member countries' economic circumstances. Among a group of the 12 oldest EMU members, we find that the standard deviation among the levels of unemployment rates is hovering near an all-time high since the euro area was formed. This measure of disparity within the EU peaked in June of last year and has edged down slightly but not by much. For example, before the financial crisis hit the dispersion among these 12 countries had gotten down to two percentage points while currently it sits above 7.25 percentage points. This is just one measure what the European Central Bank is trying to deal with as it looks across the euro area and tries to set a one-size fits all policy.

So far, the evidence is that the EMU continues to make its progress. Most the labor market information shows that labor market progress continues although it has slowed. However, other indicators don't show such continuing improvement. Moreover, as revealed by the unemployment rate dispersion gauge, the variability of conditions around the union creates the largest headache for the ECB, which is the only agency with overarching macroeconomic abilities to affect conditions in the euro area. Simply put, monetary policy is trying to make progress under the most adverse conditions.

The manufacturing PMIs this month show that progress in the euro area has slowed and even backtracked for a majority of the members. However, the euro area itself still has a manufacturing PMI whose value is 18.2 points higher than its low and only 7.2 points below its past cycle peak. For the four largest economies, it's also true that for all of them, including France, they are higher from their cycle low than they are down from their cycle peak. In most cases, this is a two to one difference although it's much less than that for France.

It has now become a continuing theme to dwell over the weakness in France and to wonder how the euro area is going to move ahead and deal with one of its largest economies that is struggling so greatly. However, even Germany with the best all-around performance has showed some tendency to slow down in the last month or so and to backtrack from its highs. Whatever specific country problems exist, there also seems to be a euro area-wide problem that has been slowing growth. Yet, the IMF is urging central banks to get their base interest rates back to `normal' while the ECB has only just launched a policy meant to provide credit stimulus. Europe is not yet out of the woods.


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The chart on the left makes it quite clear that manufacturing in the euro area has turned lower, according to the Markit manufacturing PMIs. France, after lingering behind Germany and the EMU totals, surged to its cycle high two [...]

EMU Manufacturing PMIs Turn Lower in June

Tom Moeller

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 The Composite Index of Manufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute
 for Supply Management held fairly steady at 55.3 during June versus an
 unrevised 55.4 in May. The reading remained nearly the highest since
 December but was below the peak of 57.0 this past November. It was just
 shy of consensus expectations for 55.8 as measured by the Action Economics
 Forecast Survey. Any figure above 50 indicates an increasing level of
 factory sector activity. During the last ten years, there has been a 76%
 correlation between the ISM index and the q/q change in real GDP.
 
 Movement amongst the component series last month was mixed. The new
 orders index (58.9) improved to its highest level in six months. The
 employment reading was steady at 52.8. During the last ten years there has
 been an 88% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in
 factory payrolls. Also steady was the inventories series at 53.0, where
 its roughly been for five months. To the downside were the production
 (60.0) and supplier delivery (51.9) indexes, the latter indicating the
 quickest delivery speeds in twelve months.
 
 The export order series (54.5) fell modestly and was stable at the
 year-ago level. The import index (57.0) rose and reversed most of its May
 decline. Order backlogs (48.0) fell sharply to the lowest level since last
 August.
 
 The prices paid index series (58.0) fell slightly and remained in the
 range of the last six months. A lessened twenty three percent of firms
 raised prices and an easier seven percent lowered them. During the last
 ten years, there has been a 67% correlation between the index and the m/m
 change in the intermediate producer price index.
 
 The figures from the Institute For Supply Management (ISM) are
 diffusion indexes and can be found in Haver's USECON database. The
 expectations number is in the AS1REPNA database.
 
 Accommodative Monetary Policy: Savior or Saboteur? from the
 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/our-district/press/presidents-speeches/williams-speeches/2014/june/accommodative-monetary-policy/">here</a>.

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 <table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
	
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >ISM Mfg</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jun</th>
 <th scope="col" >May</th>
 <th scope="col" >Apr</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jun'13</th>
 <th scope="col" >2013</th>
 <th scope="col" >2012</th>
 <th scope="col" >2011</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Composite Index</td>
 <td >55.3</td>
 <td >55.4</td>
 <td >54.9</td>
 <td >52.5</td>
 <td >53.9</td>
 <td >51.8</td>
 <td >55.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;New Orders</td>
 <td >58.9</td>
 <td >56.9</td>
 <td >55.1</td>
 <td >55.7</td>
 <td >57.2</td>
 <td >53.1</td>
 <td >56.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Production</td>
 <td >60.0</td>
 <td >61.0</td>
 <td >55.7</td>
 <td >55.7</td>
 <td >57.7</td>
 <td >53.8</td>
 <td >57.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Employment</td>
 <td >52.8</td>
 <td >52.8</td>
 <td >54.7</td>
 <td >50.0</td>
 <td >53.2</td>
 <td >53.8</td>
 <td >57.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Supplier Deliveries</td>
 <td >51.9</td>
 <td >53.2</td>
 <td >55.9</td>
 <td >50.4</td>
 <td >51.9</td>
 <td >50.0</td>
 <td >54.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Inventories</td>
 <td >53.0</td>
 <td >53.0</td>
 <td >53.0</td>
 <td >50.5</td>
 <td >49.4</td>
 <td >48.2</td>
 <td >50.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Prices Paid Index (NSA)</td>
 <td >58.0</td>
 <td >60.0</td>
 <td >56.5</td>
 <td >52.5</td>
 <td >53.8</td>
 <td >53.2</td>
 <td >65.2</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 
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The Composite Index of Manufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management held fairly steady at 55.3 during June versus an unrevised 55.4 in May. The reading remained nearly the highest since December but was below [...]

U.S. ISM Index Holds Steady; Prices Slip

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 The price for a gallon of regular gasoline held at $3.70 last
 week (5.9% y/y). Prices remained down from the $3.78 per gallon peak
 reached in February of last year. To account for seasonal volatility,
 Haver Analytics constructs factors for adjustment of pump prices. The
 adjusted cost of gasoline rose six cents to $3.65 per gallon.
 
 The cost of WTI crude oil slipped last week to $106.31 per
 barrel (+10.8% y/y), but remained near the highest level since last
 September. The seasonally adjusted price of $108.93 per barrel, generated
 by Haver Analytics, remained up sharply from $92.19 in early May.
 Yesterday, prices slipped to $105.37. Brent crude oil prices fell last
 week to $113.12 per barrel (+11.4% y/y) and yesterday were $110.87.
 
 Natural gas prices declined last week to $4.49 per mmbtu (20.8% y/y)
 and fell to $4.42 yesterday.
 
 The demand for all petroleum products edged 0.2% lower last week
 versus last year. Gasoline demand increased 1.7% y/y. Residual fuel oil
 needs, used for heating, fell by nearly one-third y/y while distillate
 demand fell 1.6% y/y. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products were
 off 1.6% y/y and gasoline inventories fell 4.6% y/y.
 
 The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and
 can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY
 and the petroleum demand and inventory figures are in OILWKLY.
 
 Will Inflation Remain Low? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San
 Francisco can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2014/june/will-inflation-stay-low-phillips-curve/">here</a>.
 
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 <table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Weekly Energy Prices</th>
 <th scope="col" >06/30/14</th>
 <th scope="col" >06/23/14</th>
 <th scope="col" >06/16/14</th>
 <th scope="col" >Y/Y%</th>
 <th scope="col" >2013</th>
 <th scope="col" >2012</th>
 <th scope="col" >2011</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon,
 Regular)</td>
 <td >3.70 </td>
 <td >3.70</td>
 <td >3.69</td>
 <td >5.9</td>
 <td >3.51</td>
 <td >3.62</td>
 <td >3.52</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per
 bbl., WSJ)</td>
 <td >106.31</td>
 <td >107.23</td>
 <td >105.97</td>
 <td >10.8</td>
 <td >97.95</td>
 <td >94.20</td>
 <td >95.14</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, WSJ)</td>
 <td >4.49</td>
 <td >4.64</td>
 <td >4.58</td>
 <td >20.8</td>
 <td >3.73</td>
 <td >2.75</td>
 <td >3.99</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 
</body></html>

The price for a gallon of regular gasoline held at $3.70 last week (5.9% y/y). Prices remained down from the $3.78 per gallon peak reached in February of last year. To account for seasonal volatility, Haver Analytics constructs [...]

U.S. Gasoline Prices Remain Unchanged

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 (1.2% y/y) during April after rising 185,000 in March, revised from 228,000, and 102,000 in February, revised from 117,000. Expectations had been for a 130,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest figure left the three-month average change at 155,000 in April, down from 232,000 in January.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% during April after unrevised increases of 0.3% in March and 0.2% in February. Earnings growth of 3.8% y/y was below the 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, held m/m at an expected 4.2% in April, and compared to 4.1% in February and 4.0% in January. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, eased to 7.8% in April from 7.9% in March.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment rose 167,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 170,000 March increase. Factory sector jobs edged 1,000 lower (-0.7% y/y) following a 3,000 gain. Construction sector employment increased 11,000 (1.7% y/y), after rising 7,000 in March.

Private service-producing sector employment increased 156,000 (1.4% y/y) in April after improving 161,000 in March. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 70,000 (3.4% y/y) last month following a 74,000 March increase. Leisure & hospitality employment rose 24,000 (1.3% y/y) after a 38,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities rose 32,000 (0.9% y/y) in April following a 25,000 March increase. Professional & business services employment rose 17,000 (-0.1% y/y) following a 3,000 rise while temporary help employment rose 3,600 (-3.9% y/y) following a 2,700 decline. Financial activities employment improved 14,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 6,000 gain. The number of information sector jobs held steady (-0.4% y/y) last month after falling 2,000 in March.

Government sector payrolls rose 10,000 (1.3% y/y) last month after increasing 15,000 in March. The number of local government jobs increased 13,000 (1.4% y/y) following a 17,000 gain. State government employment rose 6,000 (1.8% y/y) following a 2,000 March increase but federal government payrolls fell 9,000 (-0.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in April after increasing 0.3% in March. Earnings in the goods-producing sector eased 0.1% (+4.0% y/y) following a 0.6% gain. Earnings in construction rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y), after a 0.2% rise but factory sector earnings declined 0.3% (+4.3% y/y) after surging 0.8% in March. In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) in April for the third straight month. Information sector pay increased 1.0% (5.2% y/y) last month after easing 0.1%, and financial activities earnings rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Trade, transportation & utilities sector pay increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y) after 0.6%. Professional & business sector earnings increased 0.1% (4.4% y/y) after 0.2% in March. Leisure & hospitality earnings held steady (+3.8% y/y) following a 0.6% March increase.

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The length of the average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours in April. The workweek in the goods-producing sector eased to 39.8 hours from 40.0 hours. The construction sector average workweek eased to 39.0 hours from 39.3 hours while the factory sector workweek moved lower to 40.0 hours from 40.2. The average workweek in the private service sector held at 33.2 hours. Professional & business service hours fell to 36.3 hours from 36.4 while trade, transportation & utilities hours improved to 34.3 from 34.0 hours. Private education hours rose slightly to 32.8, but leisure & hospitality held steady at 25.5 hours.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate held at 4.2% in April as employment rose 436,000 and the size of the labor force increased 518,000. The labor force participation rate edged up to 62.6% last month from 62.5% in March. It remained below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers declined to 36.9%. For workers aged 20-24, the rate held steady at 72.1%, up from 71.8% six months earlier. For workers aged 25-54 the rate rose to 83.6%, a five-month high. For individuals 55 and over, the rate improved to 38.4% in April.

The employment/population ratio for all workers in April rose to 60.0%. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Job growth spreads across most sectors.
- Earnings growth trend decelerates.
- Jobless rate holds steady.

U.S. Job Growth Is Firm in April but March Gain Is Lessened

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total factory orders rose a slightly less-than-expected 4.3% m/m in March after rises of 0.5% in February and 1.8% in January, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A 4.5% m/m March increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The March reading was the third successive monthly rise and the largest since July 2024. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 6.0% in March, the highest since November 2022, from 2.3% in February. Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts soared 139.0% in March following a 7.4% drop in February and a 92.9% surge in January. Factory orders excluding defense rose 4.8% (5.9% y/y), the largest of three straight m/m/ rises, after a 0.4% February increase. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector fell 0.2% (+1.1% y/y), the first m/m fall since August, after rising 0.3% in February, January and December.

Durable goods orders jumped 9.2% (11.9% y/y) in March, the third consecutive m/m gain and the biggest since July 2024, on top of a 0.8% increase in February (matching +9.2% m/m in the advance report on April 24). The March jump reflected m/m orders increases of 27.1% (the largest m/m surge since July 2024; 31.2% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.1% (4.9% y/y) in primary metals, 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.1% (2.5% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in machinery. To the downside, durable goods orders for computers & electronic products (-1.3%; +2.7% y/y) and electrical equipment, appliances & components (-1.0%; +4.2% y/y) declined m/m in March.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, fell 0.3% (+0.4% y/y) in March, the first m/m fall since September, after a 0.1% uptick in February. The March fall reflected m/m drops of 2.4% (-9.3% y/y) in petroleum & coal products and 0.9% (-1.2% y/y) in apparel. To the upside, the following nondurable goods shipments rose m/m in March: leather & allied products (1.5%; 8.6% y/y), beverage & tobacco products (0.7%; 5.8% y/y), paper products (0.6%; 2.3% y/y), printing (0.3%; 3.8% y/y), textile mills (0.3%; 0.8% y/y), chemical products (0.2%; 5.4% y/y), plastics & rubber products (0.2%; 0.4% y/y), food products (0.1%; 1.8% y/y), and textile products (0.1%; 2.1% y/y).

Total shipments slipped 0.1% (+2.0% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since October, after a 0.7% increase in February. Excluding transportation, shipments were virtually unchanged m/m (+1.1% y/y) in March following six straight m/m gains. Shipments of durable goods industries inched up 0.1% (3.8% y/y) in March, the smallest of four consecutive m/m increases, after a 1.3% advance in February. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments rises of 1.2% (5.6% y/y) in primary metals, 0.9% (0.1% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.8% (-0.2% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.4% (0.0% y/y) in machinery, 0.3% (1.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.2% (4.5% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 0.2% (-2.1% y/y) in wood products, and 0.1% (3.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components. In contrast, durable goods shipments for transportation equipment (-0.5%; +7.3% y/y) and miscellaneous durable goods (-0.1%; +2.9% y/y) fell m/m in March following three successive m/m increases.

Unfilled orders rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, up for the eighth month in nine, after a 0.1% uptick in February. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders dipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since May 2024, after holding steady in February. Backlogs of durable goods rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, reflecting m/m rises of 3.1% (3.1% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.2% (2.4% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components.

Inventories edged up 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in March, the fifth straight m/m increase, after rising at the same pace in the prior two months. Excluding transportation, inventories were up 0.1% (0.5% y/y) in March, the fifth consecutive m/m rise. Durable goods inventories ticked up 0.1% (1.0% y/y) in March after holding steady in February and January; nondurable goods inventories edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y), the fifth successive m/m increase.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- March manufacturers’ new orders +4.3% m/m; +6.0% y/y, highest since Nov. ’22.
- Durable goods orders (+9.2%) jump m/m, while nondurable goods orders (-0.3%) and shipments (-0.1%) decline m/m.
- Transportation equipt. orders +27.1% m/m, w/ a 139.0% m/m surge in nondefense aircraft & parts orders.
- Unfilled orders +2.0%, the eighth m/m rise in nine months.
- Inventories +0.1%, the fifth consecutive m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Increase for the Third Straight Month in March

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The global manufacturing data showed broad weakening in April as conditions weakened across more than half of the contributing early reporters in the S&P survey of manufacturing. Of the 18 early reporting countries, more than half of them showed deceleration over six months and 12 months. Over three months, only 8 of 18 showed deterioration and that's about as good as it got in this report. In the current month, month-to-month changes showed more than half of the survey contributors showing weaker results than the month before. In the S&P framework, manufacturing improved month-to-month for the U.S.; however, looking at sequential averages for the U.S., U.K., European monetary union, Canada, and Japan, we see a steady weakening and results over 12 months, over six months versus 12 months, and for three months versus 6 months. The highly developed countries are not doing particularly well.

Asian economies are also showing slight deterioration but doing a little better than the developed countries in general.

Only five of the 18 reporting countries have queue percentile standings in their data back to January 2021 that are above their medians. Readings at or above the 50% mark are at or above the median standing. Canada is showing the weakest manufacturing result on record over this span, in terms of its queue percentile standing which is at 0 in the current month.

I showed the graphic for the Baltic dry goods index in this report rather than statistics on the manufacturing PMI data because the Baltic data, which reflect shipping volume for dry goods - that is excluding things like oil - is weak but it's only in the neighborhood where it's been for some time. There has been a great deal of talk about how tariffs may have impacted trade flows, expected trade flows, shipping, shipping rates, and the like. However, according to the Baltic dry goods index, there isn't much evidence that this is occurring right now and affecting the current data. That may still lie ahead but for now it's not baked in the cake.

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Globally Manufacturing Weakens

Andrew Cates

**China-US shipping activity** 
The economic fallout from escalating US-China trade tensions is becoming increasingly visible in the data. A clear example is the chart below, which highlights a sharp drop in vessel arrivals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, along with a notable decline in ships waiting offshore. These trends point to a tangible weakening in bilateral trade flows, as the effects of tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by both countries begin to bite. Given the outsized role the US and China play in global commerce, this slowdown is likely to reverberate through global supply chains, weighing on trade volumes, dampening demand, and curbing economic growth worldwide.

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**GDP growth in Q1**
Data this week showed that the US economy contracted, albeit modestly, in Q1 even as the euro area recorded a modest expansion—an unusual divergence. The contraction in US GDP can be largely attributed to a sharp increase in imports, as firms rushed to front-load purchases ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. In addition, domestic demand was subdued, with weaker contributions from both consumer spending and government consumption. This decoupling between the US and euro area economies is particularly striking given the current global focus on the US dollar. While the euro area has shown unexpected signs of resilience, the US downturn raises important questions about its underlying momentum, especially as trade dynamics and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.

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**The US dollar versus yield differentials**
Chart 3 below illustrates a sharp breakdown in the correlation between the US-Germany 10-year yield differential and the EUR/USD exchange rate. Historically, the dollar has moved closely with interest rate spreads, as yield-seeking capital flowed into US assets. But since early 2025—and more acutely following the April tariff actions—the dollar has weakened markedly even as the yield spread has narrowed only modestly. This decoupling underscores a critical shift: capital markets are reacting not just to monetary policy, but to rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. In other words, the exchange rate is now being driven as much by risk sentiment as by interest rate arbitrage.

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**The US economy’s structural outperformance and the dollar**
A second dynamic, captured in the next chart, reveals a tight correlation between the US real effective exchange rate and the potential GDP growth differential between the US and euro area over the past 50-60 years. This raises the question: has dollar strength (until recently) merely been a reflection of US growth leadership—or are capital inflows themselves helping to sustain this growth outperformance? In effect, the tail may be wagging the dog. Global investors have long allocated capital to the US, attracted by its macroeconomic resilience, technological leadership, and deep, liquid financial markets. The danger now is that the US trade war may disrupt this equilibrium. A sharp or sustained reduction in capital inflows could undermine growth, weaken the dollar, and trigger broader financial instability. Moreover, reversing this dynamic is not straightforward—barring a credible structural resurgence in European (or Asian) growth, the global investment landscape remains tilted toward the US.

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**US competitiveness versus Europe, China and Japan** 
The next chart below examines relative unit labour costs across major economies since 2011. The US and China have seen a broadly similar trajectory, with steady increases in relative cost structures, while the euro area has remained flat and Japan has seen dramatic improvement. This suggests that, from a cost competitiveness standpoint, the US is not uniquely disadvantaged vis-à-vis China. However, as we discuss further below, this parallel erosion of cost competitiveness is occurring at much higher nominal wage levels in the US, which blunts its ability to regain export share through tariff-related shifts alone. The trade war strategy—absent a corresponding improvement in productivity or structural reforms—risks imposing costs without delivering material competitiveness gains.

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**Average wages in selected developed and developing economies**
This point is reinforced by the final chart, which shows estimates for average monthly wages across countries in 2024. US labour remains much more expensive than in peer or emerging economies. So even if China’s costs rise in tandem with the US, the global supply chain has ample alternatives. 'China plus one' strategies are accelerating, and the US remains structurally misaligned with low-cost production hubs. Tariffs aimed at reshoring supply chains are unlikely to deliver sustained gains unless accompanied by deep supply-side reforms, and risk further disincentivizing foreign direct investment if global firms perceive US trade policy as erratic or punitive.

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Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. A softening in the administration’s rhetoric around trade tariffs coupled with a less confrontational stance toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, helped ease tensions that had roiled markets earlier in the month. Equities rebounded modestly, and volatility indicators edged lower, reflecting cautious optimism that the worst of the policy shocks may be behind us. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. New shipping data point to a pronounced slowdown in US-China trade flows (chart 1), suggesting the damage from recent tariff escalations is already rippling through global supply chains. Meanwhile, incoming data for the US revealed an unexpected contraction in the economy in Q1 and further signs of weakness in the labour market (chart 2). The US dollar, in the meantime, while long supported by superior growth and yield differentials, has begun to decouple from traditional drivers (charts 3 and 4) suggesting growing pressure on capital flows. At the same time, structural imbalances are drawing renewed scrutiny: unit labour cost comparisons show the US steadily losing competitiveness (chart 5), while nominal wage disparities remain stark versus China and other Asian economies, further complicating any effort to restore trade balance without broader reforms (chart 6). In short, while markets may be drawing temporary comfort from a pause in tariff brinkmanship, the deeper economic and financial vulnerabilities exposed this month remain unresolved—and increasingly central to the global macro narrative.

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Charts of the Week: Tariff Truce, Tenuous Trust

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U.S. light vehicle sales dropped 2.9% (+6.5% y/y) to 17.31 million units (SAAR) in April after surging 10.8% to 17.82 million units in March. The retreat in April vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through March, which compared to 2.0% growth last year.

Sales declines were broad-based last month. Light truck sales fell 1.3% (+9.9% y/y) during April to 14.34 million units (SAAR), after rising 12.4% in March. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.2% (+11.9% y/y) to 11.02 million units, after jumping 12.5% in March. Sales of imported light trucks fell 1.8% (+4.4% y/y) to 3.32 million units, following an 11.6% March surge.

Trucks’ record 82.8% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 81.5% in March and 80.3% in April of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales also declined last month, down 9.5% (-7.5%) to 2.97 million units (SAAR) following a 3.5% March rise. The decline reversed all of the increase over the prior two months. Purchases of domestically-produced cars fell 9.8% (-4.3% y/y) last month to 2.22 million units, after rising 3.8% in March. Sales of imported autos declined 9.6% (-15.7% y/y) to 0.75 million units, following a 2.5% March increase.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was little changed from 23.6% in March and compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market held steady at 25.3% last month and compared to 27.7% in April of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.2% last month after falling to 23.3% in March.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the I**NDUSTRY** database.

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- Light truck sales pull back, while auto sales tumble.
- Both domestic and imported sales decline.
- Imports' market share slips further.

Economy in Brief: July 2014

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EMU Manufacturing PMIs Turn Lower in June

U.S. ISM Index Holds Steady; Prices Slip

U.S. Gasoline Prices Remain Unchanged