Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050317e.jpg" width="353">
The Philadelphia Fed&#39;s Index of General Business Conditions in the manufacturing sector fell in March to 11.4 from an unrevised 23.9 in February. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 20.0. The latest was the lowest reading since July 2003.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the level of the Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index and three month growth in factory sector industrial production. There has been a 52% correlation with q/q growth in real GDP.
The shipments index fell a hard 9.1 points. The number of employees fell 2.2 points and the index level is half what it was last summer but new orders rose again off the January low. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the employment index and the three month growth in factory payrolls.
The business conditions index reflects a separate survey question, not the sub indexes.
The separate index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to the highest level this year.
The prices paid index fell again, to the lowest level since November 2003. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the prices paid index and the three month growth in the intermediate goods PPI. The correlation with the finished goods PPI has been 50% and with the CPI it&#39;s been 43%.
The Philadelphia Fed index is based on a survey of 250 regional manufacturing firms, but these firms sell nationally and internationally.
The latest Business Outlook survey from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank can be found <a href="http://www.phil.frb.org/files/bos/bos0305.html">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S504/@S504.HTM">Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Mar &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">General Activity Index</td>
<td>11.4</td>
<td>23.9</td>
<td>27.5</td>
<td>28.1</td>
<td>10.6</td>
<td>7.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index</td>
<td>29.7</td>
<td>43.5</td>
<td>49.6</td>
<td>51.3</td>
<td>16.8</td>
<td>12.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The Philadelphia Fed's Index of General Business Conditions in the manufacturing sector fell in March to 11.4 from an unrevised 23.9 in February. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 20.0. The latest was the lowest reading [...]

Philadelphia Fed Activity Index Fell

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050317b.jpg" width="353">
The Conference Board reported that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators ticked 0.1% higher in February following an unrevised 0.3% decline the prior month. Six-month growth in the leaders remained negative at -0.2%. Growth in the leaders deeper than -2.5% preceded past US recessions.
The breadth of one month gain amongst the 10 components of the leading index improved markedly to 60% from a downwardly revised 25% in January. Fewer claims for unemployment insurance and higher stock prices were the main positive contributors to last month&#39;s leading index increase.
The leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series. Two series, orders for consumer goods and orders for capital goods, are estimated.
The coincident indicators recovered 0.4% following a downwardly revised 0.6% decline in January. Six-month growth in the index was 3.3% and during the last ten years there has been an 84% correlation between six month growth in the coincident indicators and two quarter growth in real GDP.
The lagging indicators rose 0.4% and have been moving higher for most of the last year versus declines during the prior three years. Higher C&amp;I loans account for much of the gain.
The ratio of the coincident to the lagging indicators which measures actual economic performance relative to excess rose 0.5% (3.1% y/y).
Visit the Conference Board&#39;s <a href="http://www.conference-board.org">site</a> for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/BCI/BCI.HTM">Business Cycle Indicators</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">6-Month Chg</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Leading</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Coincident</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Lagging</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The Conference Board reported that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators ticked 0.1% higher in February following an unrevised 0.3% decline the prior month. Six-month growth in the leaders remained negative at -0.2%. [...]

Leading Indicators Tick Higher

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050317a.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 10,000 to 318,000 last week after a revised 18,000 increase the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 317,000 claims.
The latest figure covers the survey period for March nonfarm payrolls and claims were up 15,000 (5.0%) from the February period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 316,500 (-7.5% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 48,000 from the prior week and the insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.1%.
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan&#39;s testimony titled Future of the Social Security program and economics of retirement can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2005/20050315/default.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">03/12/05</th>
<th scope="col">03/05/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>318</td>
<td>328</td>
<td>-4.5%</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,647</td>
<td>-14.0%</td>
<td>2,926</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 10,000 to 318,000 last week after a revised 18,000 increase the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 317,000 claims. The latest figure covers the survey period for March [...]

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Lower

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050317e.jpg" width="353">
The Philadelphia Fed&#39;s Index of General Business Conditions in the manufacturing sector fell in March to 11.4 from an unrevised 23.9 in February. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 20.0. The latest was the lowest reading since July 2003.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the level of the Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index and three month growth in factory sector industrial production. There has been a 52% correlation with q/q growth in real GDP.
The shipments index fell a hard 9.1 points. The number of employees fell 2.2 points and the index level is half what it was last summer but new orders rose again off the January low. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the employment index and the three month growth in factory payrolls.
The business conditions index reflects a separate survey question, not the sub indexes.
The separate index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to the highest level this year.
The prices paid index fell again, to the lowest level since November 2003. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the prices paid index and the three month growth in the intermediate goods PPI. The correlation with the finished goods PPI has been 50% and with the CPI it&#39;s been 43%.
The Philadelphia Fed index is based on a survey of 250 regional manufacturing firms, but these firms sell nationally and internationally.
The latest Business Outlook survey from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank can be found <a href="http://www.phil.frb.org/files/bos/bos0305.html">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S504/@S504.HTM">Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Mar &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">General Activity Index</td>
<td>11.4</td>
<td>23.9</td>
<td>27.5</td>
<td>28.1</td>
<td>10.6</td>
<td>7.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index</td>
<td>29.7</td>
<td>43.5</td>
<td>49.6</td>
<td>51.3</td>
<td>16.8</td>
<td>12.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Lower 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> March 17, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050317a.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 10,000 to 318,000 last week after a revised 18,000 increase the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 317,000 claims.
The latest figure covers the survey period for March nonfarm payrolls and claims were up 15,000 (5.0%) from the February period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 316,500 (-7.5% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 48,000 from the prior week and the insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.1%.
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan&#39;s testimony titled Future of the Social Security program and economics of retirement can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2005/20050315/default.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">03/12/05</th>
<th scope="col">03/05/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>318</td>
<td>328</td>
<td>-4.5%</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,647</td>
<td>-14.0%</td>
<td>2,926</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Leading Indicators Tick Higher 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> March 17, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050317b.jpg" width="353">
The Conference Board reported that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators ticked 0.1% higher in February following an unrevised 0.3% decline the prior month. Six-month growth in the leaders remained negative at -0.2%. Growth in the leaders deeper than -2.5% preceded past US recessions.
The breadth of one month gain amongst the 10 components of the leading index improved markedly to 60% from a downwardly revised 25% in January. Fewer claims for unemployment insurance and higher stock prices were the main positive contributors to last month&#39;s leading index increase.
The leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series. Two series, orders for consumer goods and orders for capital goods, are estimated.
The coincident indicators recovered 0.4% following a downwardly revised 0.6% decline in January. Six-month growth in the index was 3.3% and during the last ten years there has been an 84% correlation between six month growth in the coincident indicators and two quarter growth in real GDP.
The lagging indicators rose 0.4% and have been moving higher for most of the last year versus declines during the prior three years. Higher C&amp;I loans account for much of the gain.
The ratio of the coincident to the lagging indicators which measures actual economic performance relative to excess rose 0.5% (3.1% y/y).
Visit the Conference Board&#39;s <a href="http://www.conference-board.org">site</a> for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/BCI/BCI.HTM">Business Cycle Indicators</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">6-Month Chg</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Leading</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Coincident</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Lagging</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Canadian Asset Growth Outstrips Liabilities in 2004, A Fundamental Improvement Supporting Currency Value 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> March 17, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050317c.jpg" width="353">
Canada&#39;s overall financial condition improved markedly in 2004, according to National Balance Sheet data report today by Statistics Canada. Total assets grew 5.7% and nonfinancial assets also grew 5.7%, both more than in 2003. Nonfinancial assets include buildings, equipment, consumer durable goods and the value of land; this sum is also known as &quot;national wealth&quot;. Total liabilities expanded by 5.1%, more than the year before, but less than assets. So the difference, a measure of net worth for the entire economy, grew by 6.9% to nearly C$4.4 trillion. These data are all contained in Haver&#39;s CANSIM database.
Total assets in Canada have grown more rapidly than total liabilities since the middle of 1999, as seen in the first chart. Growth of both slowed with sagging share values and the slowdown in activity during 2001, but assets have remained on a stronger uptrend than liabilities. Nonfinancial assets have increased at a higher rate than liabilities since 2002.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050317d.jpg" width="353">
These overall relationships in the Canadian economy and financial system have an interesting relationship to the value of the Canadian currency. The second chart shows a substantial 92% correlation between the ratio of net worth to total liabilities and an index of the Canadian dollar against six other currencies. This ratio may be seen as an indication of leverage: how big is the role of debt in financing macroeconomic activity the nation. It seems intuitive that such a fundamental measure of economic conditions might influence the currency value. In the last couple of years, the weakness of the US dollar may have dominated as a determinant of the exchange rate. Even so, through the 15-year history of the balance sheet data, it is fascinating that the Canadian dollar weakened as long as net worth deteriorated relative to borrowing, but has tended higher since that ratio turned upward in 1999.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/CANADA.HTM">Canada</a> Billions Canadian $</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Assets</td>
<td>12,865.0</td>
<td>12,171.0</td>
<td>11,789.5</td>
<td>11,240.1</td>
<td>10,636.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; % Change</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>4.9</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Nonfinancial Assets (National Wealth)</td>
<td>4,420.8</td>
<td>4,182.2</td>
<td>3,977.6</td>
<td>3,747.6</td>
<td>3,559.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; % Change</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>5.3</td>
<td>5.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Liabilities*</td>
<td>8,495.4</td>
<td>8,084.8</td>
<td>7,883.4</td>
<td>7,572.1</td>
<td>7,174.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; % Change</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>6.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Net Worth (Assets - Liabilities)</td>
<td>4,369.5</td>
<td>4,086.2</td>
<td>3,906.1</td>
<td>3,668.0</td>
<td>3,461.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; % Change</td>
<td>6.9</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>6.5</td>
<td>6.0</td>
<td>7.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050316f.jpg" width="353">
UK labor market data published today show further evidence of strength in the UK economy. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.7% for the 3 months surrounding December (i.e., November, December and January), the lowest since the third quarter of 1975, nearly 30 years ago. The related &quot;claimant count&quot; was 813,300 in February, the lowest since June 1975.
Employment rose. The labor force measure, the number of people saying they have jobs, rose 46,000 to 28.57 million, a new high. This too is a 3-month centered moving average for December, compared to the November figure. The count of jobs in Q4 rose 126,000 to 30.53 million, reversing a dip in Q3.
Analysts today said they believe that the firm employment figures are not likely to prompt immediate monetary tightening by the Bank of England, since wage rates remained moderate. The average earnings index (AEI) for January (a 3-month moving average ending in January) was up 4.4% on a year ago, the same as the December figure. Despite some forecasts for a reduction to 4.2%, analysts based their expectation of steady monetary policy on a threshold of 4.5% that the Bank is said to use for consideration of interest rate increases.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050316g.jpg" width="353">
These wage rates and employment are linked, as seen in the second graph. Correlation over the last 10 years of the AEI with the year-on-year growth in workforce jobs has been positive and a notable 69% for the employment data with a two-quarter lead. Thus, as employment growth picks up, wages might be expected to accelerate some six months later; similarly, if employment growth slows, wage gains should diminish over time as well. This positive relationship with employment appearing to move ahead of wages suggests that the UK labor market is demand driven. A supply-oriented market would have wage movements leading employment.

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</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/UK/UK.HTM">United Kingdom:</a> All seasonally adjusted</th>
<th scope="col">Feb 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Jan 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>4.7*</td>
<td>4.7*</td>
<td>4.7</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>5.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Claimant Count (thous.)</td>
<td>813</td>
<td>814</td>
<td>824</td>
<td>832</td>
<td>854</td>
<td>933</td>
<td>947</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment (mil.)</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>28.57*</td>
<td>28.52*</td>
<td>28.44</td>
<td>28.18</td>
<td>27.91</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Change</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>+46K</td>
<td>+30K</td>
<td>+0.9%</td>
<td>+0.9%</td>
<td>+0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Workforce Jobs</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>30.53 (Q4)</td>
<td>30.45</td>
<td>30.25</td>
<td>29.91</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Change</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>+126K vs. Q3</td>
<td>+0.7</td>
<td>+1.1</td>
<td>+0.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Average Earnings Index &quot;Headline Rate&quot;**</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>3.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

UK labor market data published today show further evidence of strength in the UK economy. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.7% for the 3 months surrounding December (i.e., November, December and January), the lowest since the [...]

UK Unemployment Rate Holds to 30-Year Low

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050316e.jpg" width="353">
The National Association of Home Builders&#39; (NAHB) Composite Housing Market Index held at 69 in March versus an upwardly revised level in February.
Each of the index components held about at the February levels including the indexes of current and prospective sales which both were up solidly versus last last year.
During the last twenty years, annual changes in the composite index had an 83% correlation with the change in new home sales. There&#39;s been an 86% correlation with the change in single family housing starts.
The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
Visit the National Association of Home Builders using this <a href="http://www.nahb.org">link</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S4/@S4.HTM">Nat&#39;l Association of Home Builders</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Mar &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Housing Market Index</td>
<td>69</td>
<td>69</td>
<td>66</td>
<td>68</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>61</td>
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The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) Composite Housing Market Index held at 69 in March versus an upwardly revised level in February. Each of the index components held about at the February levels including the indexes of [...]

NAHB Housing Market Index Stable

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050316d.jpg" width="353">
Housing starts unexpectedly ticked 0.5% higher in February to a record high of 2.195M following an upwardly revised 6.2% increase in January.Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 2.033M starts.
Single-family starts rose 0.3% m/m to a record high of 1.775M and reflected a 4.5% (19.0% y/y) gain in the Northeast. Single family starts in the Midwest also jumped 19.1% (7.3% y/y).
Multi family starts remained on the mend and rose 1.7% m/m after the upwardly revised 20.8% January spike.
Building permits slipped 2.7% reflecting a 10.8% (+13.8% y/y) drop in permits for 5+ units.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E901/@E90101/@E90101.HTM">Housing Starts (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>2,195</td>
<td>2,183</td>
<td>15.8%</td>
<td>1,952</td>
<td>1,853</td>
<td>1,7 10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single-family</td>
<td>1,775</td>
<td>1,770</td>
<td>16.7%</td>
<td>1,605</td>
<td>1,505</td>
<td>1,363</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Multi-family</td>
<td>420</td>
<td>413</td>
<td>12.3%</td>
<td>347</td>
<td>348</td>
<td>347</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Building Permits</td>
<td>2,074</td>
<td>2,132</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>2,035</td>
<td>1,8 89</td>
<td>1,749</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Housing starts unexpectedly ticked 0.5% higher in February to a record high of 2.195M following an upwardly revised 6.2% increase in January.Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 2.033M starts. Single-family starts rose [...]

Housing Starts Higher in February

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050316c.jpg" width="353">
Industrial production rose 0.3% in February following an upwardly revised 0.1% up tick in January. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.4% increase. For the second month utility output fell, by 1.0% after the 2.8% decline in January.
Factory sector output rose 0.5% (4.7% y/y) for the third straight month. High tech sector output rose 1.5% (20.6% y/y) after a 3.2% January increase which was double the initial estimate. Output of communications equipment rose 2.4% (18.6% y/y). Factory output excluding high tech rose 0.5% (3.7% y/y), the strongest monthly gain since October.
Motor vehicle &amp; parts output led the strength last month outside of tech and rose 5.2% (4.5% y/y). Excluding motor vehicles factory output rose just 0.1% (4.7% y/y).
Excluding both high tech and motor vehicles factory output was unchanged last month (3.7% y/y). Output in most industry groups declined. Clothing output fell 1.5% (-7.5% y/y) and paper output slipped 0.2% (+3.5% y/y). Machinery output fell 0.6% (+6.2% y/y) after a strong gain in January but production of appliances, furniture &amp; carpeting rose 0.4% (0.1% y/y).
Total capacity utilization fell slightly to 79.0%. Capacity grew 1.2% y/y.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EA/@EA.HTM">Production &amp; Capacity</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Capacity Utilization</td>
<td>79.4%</td>
<td>79.2%</td>
<td>77.7% (02/04)</td>
<td>78.1%</td>
<td>75.5%</td>
<td>75.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Industrial production rose 0.3% in February following an upwardly revised 0.1% up tick in January. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.4% increase. For the second month utility output fell, by 1.0% after the 2.8% decline in [...]

Industrial Production Increase Due To Autos & High Tech

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

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Winnie Tapasanun

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General business activity in Texas declined further in December, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The overall measure, the general business activity index, fell to -10.9 in December, the lowest level since June, from -10.4 in November and -5.0 in October. The index, while above a low of -35.8 in April, was well below a high of +14.1 in January and +4.5 in December 2024. The index had been in negative territory from February through December 2025, except for a one-month positive reading of +0.9 in July. In December, 12.7% of respondents reported improved business activity, down from 18.9% in November, while 23.6% of respondents reported worsened business conditions, down from November's 29.3%. The company outlook index dropped to -11.9 in December, the fourth consecutive negative reading and the lowest since April, from -6.3 in November. Just 10.8% of respondents expected improved company outlook this month while 22.7% expected deterioration. Data were collected between December 15 and 23 from 74 Texas manufacturers.

The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, plunged to -3.2 in December after a 15.3-point jump to 20.5 in November, indicating production contracted for the first time since February. A lessened 17.2% of respondents reported higher production this month while an increased 20.4% reported a decline. The capacity utilization index plummeted to -4.5 in December, the lowest reading since February, following a four-year-high 19.4 in November; it was up from a low of -15.0 in January 2024 but well below a record-high 46.3 in March 2021.

The growth rate of orders index declined steeply to -16.0 in December from -1.3 in November, marking the weakest of four successive negative readings and the lowest level since June. The index was above a low of -22.0 in April and a low of -24.3 in November 2023 but significantly below a peak of 29.6 in April 2021. The new orders index fell to -6.4 this month after rising to 4.8 in November, indicating a decline in demand for the third time in four months and the lowest level since June. The index was above a low of -20.0 in April and a low of -21.8 in November 2022 but well below a high of 22.6 in February 2022 and a record-high 38.6 in April 2021. The shipments index plunged to -10.6 this month after jumping to 15.1 in November, marking its first negative reading since June and the lowest since July 2024. The unfilled orders index dropped to -13.5 in December from -6.6 in November, registering the 16th straight negative reading and the lowest since November 2024. The index was below a high of 1.4 in August 2024 but above a low of -26.3 in July 2024. Meanwhile, the delivery time index increased to 3.3 this month, the highest reading since March, from -8.4 in November.

Labor market indexes showed flat employment conditions and shorter workweeks in December. The employment index slipped to -1.1 this month from 1.2 in November, marking its first negative reading since September, with the near-zero level indicating little change in employment. The latest reading, while up from a low of -9.7 in January 2024, was far below a high of 17.9 in January 2023 and a record-high 31.8 in April 2021. A lessened 12.3% of respondents reported net hiring in December while 13.4% reported net layoffs. The hours worked index fell sharply to -7.5 this month, the lowest reading since June, after rising to 9.9 in November. Meanwhile, the wages & benefits index climbed to 21.8 in December, the highest level since October 2024 and near its series average of 21.0, up from 15.4 in November; nevertheless, having been trending downward since a peak of 55.0 in March 2022.

Inflationary pressures were little changed this month. The index for prices received for finished goods declined to 8.2 in December following a 3.1-point rise to 10.8 in November; it was up from a low of -7.0 in November 2023 but meaningfully below a high of 47.4 in March 2022 and a peak of 51.4 in October 2021. In December, 13.1% of respondents reported raising prices while only 4.9% reported lowering prices. The index of prices paid for raw materials rose to 36.0 this month, the highest reading since September, after a 1.9-point increase to 35.3 in November. The index was well above a low of 1.0 in June 2023 but significantly below 73.2 in March 2022 and a record-high 83.8 in November 2021.

Expectations on future manufacturing activity remained positive this month. The future general business activity index dipped to 10.8 in December after rising to 11.0 in November, registering the eighth straight positive reading. The future production index rose to a four-month-high 34.2 from November’s 33.7. Other indexes of future manufacturing activity also rose in December (vs. November), signaling increased activity six months ahead: company outlook (16.5 vs. 16.2), shipments (33.9 vs. 27.0), wages & benefits (42.5 vs. 39.1), and capital expenditures (17.7 vs. 12.9). Meanwhile, future indexes for capacity utilization (28.9 vs. 34.0), new orders (30.5 vs. 39.2), growth rate of new orders (24.9 vs. 27.8), and employment (20.9 vs. 22.3) declined in December (vs. November), but they remained in positive territory.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease in activity from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- General Business Activity down in Dec. to -10.9, lowest level since June.
- Company Outlook (-11.9) negative for the fourth straight mth. and at an eight-month low; Production (-3.2) negative for the first time since Feb.
- New Orders Growth (-16.0) and New Orders (-6.4) at a six-month low.
- Employment (-1.1) negative for the first time since Sept.
- Prices Received down 2.6 pts. to 8.2; Prices Paid up 0.7 pts. to a three-month-high 36.0.
- Future General Business Activity down to 10.8, still positive for the eighth consecutive mth.

Texas General Business Activity Still Negative in December, But Expectations Remain Positive

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking measure of home sales based on contract signings, rose 3.3% m/m to 79.2 in November after increases of 2.4% in October (+1.9% initially) and 0.1% in September (unrevised), according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The November reading registered the fourth consecutive m/m gain after declining in July and June. The year-on-year growth rate accelerated to 2.6% in November, the highest since August, from 0.1% in October, though still below +6.0% y/y in November 2024. Despite recent gains, the PHSI had fallen 36.7% since its October 2021 high of 125.1.

The m/m rise in November pending home sales coincided with a decline in the average 30-year mortgage rate to 6.24% in November, the lowest since September 2024, down from 6.25% in October and 6.35% in September. These rates, while below a peak of 7.62% in October 2023, had remained higher than a low of 5.22% in August 2022 and more than double a record-low 2.68% in December 2020.

Pending home sales rose m/m in November across all four major regions. Sales in the West recovered 9.2% (2.4% y/y) in November, the first m/m increase since August, following a 1.4% decline in October. Sales in the South rose 2.4% (3.3% y/y), the fourth straight m/m rise, on top of a 2.7% October advance. Sales in the Northeast grew 1.8% (1.8% y/y), the third successive m/m increase, after a 2.3% October gain. Sales in the Midwest rose 1.3% (2.2% y/y), up for the third time in four months, after a 5.3% November rebound.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- PHSI +3.3% (+2.6% y/y) in Nov., driven by lower mortgage rates.
- Home sales m/m up in all four major regions, w/ the highest rate in the West (+9.2%).
- Home sales y/y up across all regions, w/ the highest rate in the South (+3.3%).

U.S. Pending Home Sales Rise for the Fourth Straight Month in November

Robert Brusca

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Swedish exports advanced month-to-month for the second month in a row while imports continued on a losing streak declining by 0.9% in November.

Exports have gradually been firming with exports falling by 6.1% over 12 months, rising at an annual rate of 4.8% over six months, and then rising at a 3.9% annual rate over three months. Exports are not on a steady acceleration path, but they have transitioned from a year-over-year growth rate that's negative to moderate positive short-term rates of growth.

Swedish imports, on the other hand, are weakening relatively sharply. Imports were down 4.4% over 12 months, down at a 1.2% annual rate over six months, and falling at a 17% annual rate over three months.

The global trade picture remains somewhat mixed. The Baltic Dry goods index, which is an indicator of global trade volume, has backed off of its highs but continues to post relatively steady volume indications. However, the S&P global manufacturing survey has been showing weakness; when manufacturing is weak, typically international trade is weak as well. Swedish trade may be picking up some of that weakness as well.

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On balance, Sweden's trade surplus has continued to recover and hold to a relatively high level over recent months as exports have maintained momentum better than imports.

Swedish domestic barometers of economic growth have remained relatively upbeat including orders and industrial production as well as employment growth and GDP. There is no reason there to expect weak imports based on the recent data we have seen. But then sometimes trade data show economic weakness first.   

At this time, the yearend weakness in Sweden’s imports is without a specific cause. Year-end flows can be surprising. Domestic demand, however, does not appear to be weak. But there is a good deal of weakness in Europe and the Ukraine-Russia war is still a nagging factor – a cloud that hangs over all of Europe with no certain end date or result in sight.

Sweden

Sweden’s Trade; Exports Surge as Imports Recede

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped 10,000 to 214,000 in the week of December 20, from 224,000 during the week of December 13. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 216,750, a decrease of 750 from the prior week’s unrevised 217,500.

Federal government employees initially filed 805 (NSA) jobless insurance claims in the week ended December 13, after filing 1091 claims in the week ended December 6.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 38,000 to 1.923 million in the week ending December 13, after rising 55,000 to 1.885 million, revised from 1.897 million in the week ending December 6. The four-week moving average was 1.894 million in the week ending December 13, down 5,250 from 1.899 million, revised from 1,902,000 in the week ending December 6. The insured unemployment rate stood at 1.3% in the week of December 13, up from 1.2% in the week of December 6.

Federal government employees’ continuing benefits claims were 12,887 (NSA) in the week ending December 6, from 14,077 (NSA) in the week of November 29. 

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending December 6, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey and Washington (both 2.40%), Massachusetts and Minnesota (both 2.10%), California and Rhode Island (both 2.00%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.30%), and Alabama, Louisiana, North Carolina (all 0.40%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.80%), Illinois and Pennsylvania (both 1.70%), and Texas (1.10%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.


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- Initial claims declined from the prior week.
- Continuing claims rose from the prior week.
- The insured unemployment rate edged up.


U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Dropped in Latest Week

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Mortgage applications dropped 5.0% w/w (+49.8% y/y) in the week of December 19, after a drop of 3.8% w/w (+40.9% y/y) in the week of December 12, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 3.7% w/w (+15.9% y/y) in the latest week, the third consecutive weekly decline, following a drop of 2.8% w/w (+12.3% y/y) in the December 12 week. Applications for loan refinancing dropped 5.6% w/w (+110.1% y/y) in the December 19 week after a decline of 3.6% w/w (+86.0% y/y) in the week of December 12. 

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 8bps to 6.48% in the week ending December 19 from 6.56% in the week ending December 12. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped 5bps to 5.86% in the latest week from 5.91% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 8bps to 6.63% in the December 19 week from 6.55% in the December 12 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM jumped 20bps to 5.96% in the latest week from 5.76% in the December 12 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan edged up to 59.1% of total applications in the December19 week from 59.0% in the week ending December 12. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.1% in the latest week from 7.2% in the December 12 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan edged down 0.1% w/w (+7.8% y/y) to $399,700 in the week ending December 19, following a rise of 1.5% w/w (6.4% y/y) to $400,000 in the December 12 week. The average size of a purchase loan rose 1.0% w/w (1.1% y/y) to $428,600 in the latest week, after rising 0.6% w/w (-0.3% y/y) to $424,200 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 0.9% w/w (+24.9% y/y) to $379,700 in the December 19 week, following a rise of 2.3% w/w (19.8% y/y) to $383,300 in the week ending December 12.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.


- Both purchase applications and refinancing loan applications fell in the latest week.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans fell to 6.48%.
- Average loan size edged down.


Economy in Brief: 2005

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Philadelphia Fed Activity Index Fell

Leading Indicators Tick Higher

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Lower

Philadelphia Fed Activity Index Fell

UK Unemployment Rate Holds to 30-Year Low

NAHB Housing Market Index Stable

Housing Starts Higher in February

Industrial Production Increase Due To Autos & High Tech