Tom Moeller

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>

 




		<a href="/comment/101001e_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/101001e.png"></a>
		 <a href="/comment/101001f_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/101001f.png"></a>

 	Factory sector activity expanded moderately
 last month, though its rate of growth actually slipped from August.
 The September Composite Index from the Institute for Supply Management
 fell to 54.4 from 56.3 pulling the index to its lowest level since
 last November. The decline roughly matched Consensus expectations for
 a drop to 54.5. Nevertheless, the latest level was the fourteenth
 consecutive figure above 50 and was up from the low of 32.5 reached in
 December '08. (Any figure above the break-even point of 50 suggests
 rising activity.) The ISM data is available in Haver's USECON database.
 A sharp 4.3 point drop in the supplier deliveries index led the
 September decline indicating faster delivery speeds and, thus, growing
 slack in the factory sector. The employment series also fell a sharp
 3.9 points to 56.5 from its recent high in August. During the last ten
 years there has been an 89% correlation between the ISM employment
 index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. The new orders
 and production indexes followed with lesser m/m declines but the index
 levels were at their lowest since Q2 of last year. Offsetting these
 declines was a jump in the inventory index to its highest level since
 1984, presumably reflecting involuntary accumulation.
 Slowing activity abroad added to U.S. weakness. The export order
 index fell m/m to 54.5. That was down sharply from its May high of
 62.0 and equaled the lowest level since December. During the last ten
 years there has been an 88% correlation between the level of the index
 and the quarterly change in merchandise exports. A greatly reduced
 nineteen percent of respondents reported higher export orders while
 ten percent reported orders lower.
 The separate index of prices paid surged to 70.5, its highest level
 since May. It remained down from the April high of 78.0 but up from
 the December '08 low of 18.0. Forty-five percent of respondents
 reported higher prices while just four percent indicated lower prices.
 During the last twenty years there has been a 79% correlation between
 the price index and the three-month change in the PPI for intermediate
 goods.
 The ISM data are available in Haver's USECON database 
 
 <a href="/comment/101001g_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/101001g.png"></a>
		 <a href="/comment/101001h_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/101001h.png"></a>
 
 <table class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0" width="100%" >
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" ><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S2/@S201/@S201.HTM">ISM
 Mfg</a></th>
 <th scope="col" >September</th>
 <th scope="col" >August</th>
 <th scope="col" >July</th>
 <th scope="col" >Sept. '09</th>
 <th scope="col" >2009</th>
 <th scope="col" >2008</th>
 <th scope="col" >2007</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Composite Index</td>
 <td>54.4</td>
 <td>56.3</td>
 <td>55.5</td>
 <td>52.4</td>
 <td>46.2</td>
 <td>45.5</td>
 <td>51.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; New Orders</td>
 <td>51.1</td>
 <td>53.1</td>
 <td>53.5</td>
 <td>59.9</td>
 <td>51.6</td>
 <td>42.1</td>
 <td>54.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Employment</td>
 <td>56.5</td>
 <td>60.4</td>
 <td>58.6</td>
 <td>46.5</td>
 <td>40.5</td>
 <td>43.3</td>
 <td>50.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Production</td>
 <td>56.5</td>
 <td>59.9</td>
 <td>57.0</td>
 <td>57.5</td>
 <td>50.4</td>
 <td>45.2</td>
 <td>54.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Supplier
 Deliveries</td>
 <td>52.3</td>
 <td>56.6</td>
 <td>58.3</td>
 <td>56.8</td>
 <td>51.4</td>
 <td>51.6</td>
 <td>51.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Inventories</td>
 <td>55.6</td>
 <td>51.4</td>
 <td>50.2</td>
 <td>41.2</td>
 <td>37.1</td>
 <td>45.5</td>
 <td>45.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Prices Paid Index
 (NSA)</td>
 <td>70.5</td>
 <td>61.5</td>
 <td>57.5</td>
 <td>63.5</td>
 <td>48.3</td>
 <td>66.5</td>
 <td>64.6</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 
</body>
</html>

Factory sector activity expanded moderately last month, though its rate of growth actually slipped from August. The September Composite Index from the Institute for Supply Management fell to 54.4 from 56.3 pulling the index to its [...]

ISM Index Falls To Lowest Since Last November As Pricing Firms

Robert Brusca

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>

 




	<a href="/comment/101001d_big.png" name="modal"><img class="large" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/101001d.png" align="left"></a>
	German retail sales ticked up ex-autos in August after two moths of sliding. Real ex-auto retail sales fell in August for 
	the second month in a row. By category nominal retail sales are up for food and clothing and footwear over three-months while 
	Ex auto and car registrations indicators are slumping over three-months. 
	The chart on real ex auto retail sales shows that until the last few months German retailing was in an upswing. 
	Indeed the recent EU Commission indicators on German retailing and consumer confidence which are updated through 
	September show that there continues to be some progress. But the hard data themselves on what consumers are doing 
	show that there has been a slump after a long stretch of slow improvement – least as of August. This is despite that 
	more recent survey data that says the opposite positive trend is still in train. What are we to believe? On what 
	set of 'facts' are policymakers to base policy? 
	Obviously economic trends in the Zone are in a quandary. The recent employment statistics point out the huge 
	gaps in unemployment among states in the Zone. Not only is intra-zone heterogeneity a problem for policy but the 
	fact that it is hard to pin down trends in individual countries adds to the mix of uncertainty and deepens the 
	ECB's conundrum.
	Germany is an example. It has been the leading economy in recovery and it is Europe's largest economy. 
	Its strong growth has been export-led and the recovery was finally pulling up the German retail sector. Now, 
	all that progress may be in flux. 
	We have not heard the kind of policy angst from the ECB that we have heard from the UK and US central banks 
	over whether to do more to help the recovery along. Germany has opted for fiscal austerity. The UK opted for 
	fiscal austerity but the BOE has some special easing programs in place. In the US fiscal policy remains lax. 
	Some added stimulus has been undertaken. More action is pondered. No fiscal restraint in the future has been 
	promised as an offset. The Fed has embarked on a quantitative easing program which is being held in suspension 
	and the Fed is on the brink of doing more on the grounds that inflation is too low. 
	The stronger social safety net and more limited damage done to consumers in the recession is one reason for 
	Europe being less pressured to do more. But with Ireland's huge set back to its banking sector and Spain's recent 
	downgrade, the ECB may yet find that it too is in a difficult policy bind. Exporting to the US cannot remain a viable 
	European growth strategy although the recent spike up indicated in China will be helpful. The policy picture remains in flux. 
	
	
	 <table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="centered" >
 	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
 	<thead>
 <tr>
 <th colspan="9" scope="col">German Real and Nominal Retail Sales</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol">Nominal</td>
 <td>Aug-10</td>
 <td>Jul-10</td>
 <td>Jun-10</td>
 <td>3-MO</td>
 <td>6-MO</td>
 <td>12-MO</td>
 <td>YrAgo</td>
 <td>QTR 
Saar</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">Retaill Ex auto</td>
 <td>0.1%</td>
 <td style="color: red; ">-0.3%</td>
 <td style="color: red; ">-0.2%</td>
 <td style="color: red; ">-1.6%</td>
 <td>2.8%</td>
 <td>3.3%</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-4.7%</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-0.1%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol">MV and Parts</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-0.2%</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-0.4%</td>
 <td>0.0%</td>
 <td>-2.4%</td>
 <td>0.6%</td>
 <td>2.2%</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-3.6%</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-0.5%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">Food Bev &amp; Tobacco</td>
 <td>0.5%</td>
 <td>0.4%</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-0.3%</td>
 <td>2.4%</td>
 <td>3.7%</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-0.4%</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-0.9%</td>
 <td>6.4%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol">Clothing footwear</td>
 <td>1.3%</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-0.8%</td>
 <td>3.7%</td>
 <td>17.8%</td>
 <td>8.8%</td>
 <td>8.8%</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-5.9%</td>
 <td>13.5%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">car registrations (units)</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-3.5%</td>
 <td>1.4%</td>
 <td>0.8%</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-5.4%</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-14.2%</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-30.3%</td>
 <td>28.9%</td>
 <td>0.0%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td colspan="9" class="firstcol">Real</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Retail Ex auto</td>
 <td style="color: red; ">-0.2%</td>
 <td style="color: red; ">-0.4%</td>
 <td>0.0%</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-2.4%</td>
 <td>0.6%</td>
 <td>2.2%</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-3.6%</td>
 <td style=" color: red;">-0.5%</td>
 </tr>
 
</table>
 
 

</body>
</html>

German retail sales ticked up ex-autos in August after two moths of sliding. Real ex-auto retail sales fell in August for the second month in a row. By category nominal retail sales are up for food and clothing and footwear over [...]

German Retail Sales Tick Back Into The Plus Column

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>

 



 <a href="/comment/101001a_big.png" name="modal"><img class="large" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/101001a.png" align="left"></a>
 Personal income firmed during August and posted a 0.5% gain following an unrevised 0.2% July increase. 
 The increase beat Consensus expectations for a 0.3% gain.However, rather than reflecting some broad-based 
 improvement in earnings, it was mostly limited to those receiving unemployment benefits. These surged 21.9% m/m 
 (-2.5% y/y) due to the latest extension of jobless insurance payouts.Continuing modest were wages & salaries which rose 
 0.3% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.4% July gain. Much of last month's moderation was due to a 0.4% decline (+1.1% y/y) in government 
 sector wages. Disposable income rose the same 0.5% as overall income.Adjusted for price inflation, take-home pay rose 0.2% 
 (1.7% y/y).
 Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4%, the same as during July; and on a three-month basis, spending growth 
 improved to 3.1%(AR).A 0.3% August spending increase had been expected.Regrettably, most of the pickup reflects higher 
 gasoline prices.Adjusted for inflation, spending rose just 0.2% during each of the last two months and at a stable 1.8% rate 
 during the last three.Since May, real services spending rose at a 1.3% rate.For goods, real spending growth picked up to 
 2.7% owing to a 10.3% rise in recreation.
 Moderate gains in income coupled with moderate spending can mean only one thing for savings -- stability.The personal 
 savings rate ticked up to 5.8% from a downwardly revised 5.7% in July.The latest roughly equals the level for all of last year 
 though it does remain up from the 1.8% low during the fall of 2007.
 The PCE chain price index again rose a moderate 0.2% during August.These increases followed three months of decline. A 
 3.6% increase (5.2% y/y) in gasoline prices roughly equaled the July gain. Food & beverage prices ticked up 0.1%(0.7% y/y) 
 but that's up from declines early this year.The core PCE price deflator ticked up just 0.1% for the fourth consecutive month 
 and y/y growth of 1.4% was nearly its weakest since the 1960s.
 The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases.
 Yesterday's speech by Fed Chairman Ben S.Bernanke can be found <a href="http://www.ntu.org/tax-basics/who-pays-income-taxes.html">here</a>
 
 	<a href="/comment/101001b_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/101001b.png"></a>
		 <a href="/comment/101001c_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/101001c.png"></a>
		 
 <table class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0" width="100%">
 <colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Disposition
 of Personal Income (%)</th>
 <th scope="col" >August</th>
 <th scope="col" >July</th>
 <th scope="col" >June</th>
 <th scope="col" >Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2009</th>
 <th scope="col" >2008</th>
 <th scope="col" >2007</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Personal
 Income</td>
 <td>0.5</td>
 <td>0.2</td>
 <td>0.0</td>
 <td>3.3</td>
 <td>-1.7</td>
 <td>4.0</td>
 <td>5.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;
 Wages &amp; Salaries</td>
 <td>0.3</td>
 <td>0.4</td>
 <td>-0.1</td>
 <td>1.9</td>
 <td>-4.3</td>
 <td>2.1</td>
 <td>5.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Disposable
 Personal Income</td>
 <td>0.5</td>
 <td>0.1</td>
 <td>0.0</td>
 <td>3.2</td>
 <td>0.7</td>
 <td>5.1</td>
 <td>5.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Personal
 Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td>0.4</td>
 <td>0.4</td>
 <td>-0.0</td>
 <td>2.7</td>
 <td>-1.0</td>
 <td>3.0</td>
 <td>5.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Saving
 Rate</td>
 <td>5.8</td>
 <td>5.7</td>
 <td>6.0</td>
 <td>5.1
 (Aug. '09)</td>
 <td>5.9</td>
 <td>4.1</td>
 <td>2.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >PCE
 Chain Price Index</td>
 <td>0.2</td>
 <td>0.2</td>
 <td>-0.1</td>
 <td>1.5</td>
 <td>0.2</td>
 <td>3.3</td>
 <td>2.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;
 Less food &amp; energy</td>
 <td>0.1</td>
 <td>0.1</td>
 <td>0.1</td>
 <td>1.4</td>
 <td>1.5</td>
 <td>2.3</td>
 <td>2.4</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 
</body>

</html>

Personal income firmed during August and posted a 0.5% gain following an unrevised 0.2% July increase. The increase beat Consensus expectations for a 0.3% gain.However, rather than reflecting some broad-based improvement in earnings, [...]

Personal Income Boosted By Jobless Insurance Payouts

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

250506J8.jpg

250506K8.jpg

The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) in March grew to $140.5 billion after narrowing slightly to $123.2 billion in February, revised from $122.7 billion, after widening to $130.7 billion in January according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A $136.7 billion deficit was expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports rose 0.2% (6.7% y/y) in March after increasing 2.8% in February. This was accompanied by a 4.4% rise (27.1% y/y) rise in imports which came after m/m stability in February. In Q1’25, the deficit grew to an average $131.4 billion, after rising to an average $83.3 billion in Q4’24.

The trade deficit in goods (BOP basis) widened to a record $163.2 billion in March from $147.9	 billion in February, revised from $147.0 billion. Goods exports (customs value) rose 1.4% (7.0% y/y) in March, after increasing 3.6% in February. The latest increase reflected an 8.2% (8.4% y/y) surge in auto exports which came after a 12.7% strengthening. A 3.5% (4.0% y/y) gain occurred in industrial supplies & materials exports which followed a 5.1% rise. Foods, feeds & beverage exports rose 6.6% (1.4% y/y) after declining in four of the prior five month. Working lower, capital goods exports fell 2.5% (+13.9% y/y) in March after a 4.	8% increase and nonauto consumer goods exports were off 1.1% (+3.4% y/y) in March after a 2.4% gain.

Imports of goods increased 5.5% (31.4% y/y) in March after a 0.2% February easing. Imports of nonauto consumer goods imports surged 27.9% (56.0% y/y) following a 3.1% February gain. Auto imports rose 6.6% (8.7% y/y) after a 1.2% rise. Capital goods imports rose 4.2% (22.5% y/y) following a 1.1% rise. Foods, feeds & beverage imports eased 0.4% (+11.1% y/y) following a 2.0% weakening. Industrial supplies & materials imports declined 12.4% (+39.5% y/y) after weakening 4.6% in February. Petroleum imports by end-use fell 4.1% (-10.2% y/y) after a 2.9% decline. Nonpetroleum imports increased 6.0% (34.8% y/y) after holding steady in February.

The inflation-adjusted goods trade deficit (customs value) deepened to $150.9 billion in March from $136.9 billion in February. Real exports rose 1.6% (5.3% y/y) after a 3.0% February increase, while real imports rose 5.8% (29.8% y/y) in March following a 0.5% February slip.

The services trade surplus narrowed to $23.0 billion in March after decreasing to $23.8 billion in February. It reached a peak of $25.7 billion in November of last year. Service exports fell 0.9% (+5.7% y/y) after a 0.8% decline in February. Construction services exports rose 1.0% (37.7% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in February. Travel services exports fell 7.1% (-3.7% y/y) and financial exports increased 0.9% (7.3% y/y). Transport exports rose 3.1% (2.4% y/y). Service imports eased 0.1% (+10.8% y/y) in March following a 0.8% gain. Maintenance & repair services declined 1.5% (+32.1% y/y) while imported transport services increased 1.2% (1.7% y/y). Imported travel services fell 2.2% (5.3% y/y) while charges for use of intellectual property rose 1.0% (13.6 y/y).

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $24.8 billion in March from $26.6 billion in February. Exports to China declined 8.2% (-10.5% y/y) while imports weakened 7.2% (-2.7% y/y). The deficit with the European Union deepened to a record $48.3 billion in March from $30.9 billion in February. Exports rose 10.9% (14.5% y/y) while imports soared 34.0% (65.4% y/y). The deficit with Japan deepened to $5.8 billion from $5.2 billion in February. Exports rose 1.8% (8.8% y/y) and imports rose 6.4% (9.9% y/y).

The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

250506L8.jpg

250506M8.jpg

- Goods deficit grows as imports surge ahead of tariff imposition.
- Exports edge higher, led by autos.
- Petroleum product imports fall as crude oil prices decline.

U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens to Record in March

250506C2.jpg

250506D2.jpg

Retail gasoline prices for all grades improved to an average $3.27 per gallon (-13.1% y/y) in the week ended May 5 and reversed the prior week’s easing to $3.26. Prices were $3.37 per gallon to begin the month but remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. An earlier high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. The all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel eaed to $3.50 per gallon (-10.2% y/y) in the week of May 5 from $3.51 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to $59.64 per barrel (-26.4% y/y) in the week ended May 2, after rising to $63.09 per barrel in the prior week. Prices remained below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $57.13 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil declined to $63.50 per barrel (-25.9% y/y) in the week of May 2 from $67.92 in the previous week. Prices remained well below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and compared to a peak of $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022.

Natural gas prices improved to an average $3.09 per mmbtu (+88.4% y/y) in the week ended May 2, after falling to $3.00/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday’s price was $3.26/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand rose 3.2% y/y in the four weeks ending April 25 following a 0.4% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products improved 0.3% y/y in the four weeks ending April 25 after a 0.4% y/y rise in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries eased 0.1% y/y in the four weeks ending April 25 after a 1.3% y/y decline in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories slipped 0.7% y/y in the week ending April 25 after a 1.2% y/y rise in the week ending April 18. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 18.7% y/y in the week of April 25, after a 19.0% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 1.4% y/y in the week of April 25 after a 2.6% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell w/w to 25.5 days in the week of April 25 from 26.4 days in the prior. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8. The supply of crude oil eased w/w to 27.9 days in the week of April 25 after three weeks at 28.3 days, and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices edge higher.
- Crude oil prices decline.
- Natural gas costs rise.

U.S. Energy Prices Remain Mixed in Latest Week

250506E.jpg

Not many respondents are showing absolute slowing. Only five this month. Only six over the last three months on average. The median total PMI score fell to 49.7 showing contraction in April from 51.1 in March. The average fared slightly better. The 12-months to 6-months to 3-months show a moderate but consistent slowing. The breadth of slowing is wide with 60.9% of survey respondents slowing over three months compared to six months.

The percentile standings show the most strength for the BRIC group with reading above 50% (that marks the median). All other groupings have standings below the 50% mark indicating that they are below their respective medians of the last four-plus years.

Over every horizon from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months, more than 50% of the respondents show a weakening (slowing) in their PMI responses.

Among the largest economies, only Italy has a composite PMI standing above its median (above 50%).

Only 9 of 24 respondents have PMI ranked percentile standings above the 50% mark. That underlines the weakness in composite conditions and the breadth of the weakness.
 
Services sectors no longer are providing the lift to offset ongoing weakness in manufacturing. The differences among countries are narrowing.

Economic conditions across countries may be narrowing for several reasons, one being that the COVID period and then the shock reaction to Russia's invasion from Ukraine put all countries on the same timeline as central banks have been leaning against the shockwaves from those 2 events. As a result of those events, inflation flared but has more recently been falling. Still, inflation continues to be over the top of targets with the European Monetary Union right now making the most progress and Japan facing more late cycle weakness with excessive inflation than other countries in the mix. More recently aggressive tariff policy the United States has put all countries on their back foot and puts everyone on notice that the future has become a lot more uncertain. Central banks that were progressing toward rate cuts now are worried about the possibility of more inflation from tariffs or from the possibility of recession from tariffs - tariffs up the ante on uncertainty as well as on risk. What we see in this month's PMI statistics is a gradual continued erosion as the perceived risk here is that things get steadily but slowly worse as firms, investors, and consumers began to pull in their horns and prepare for something bad to happen not knowing what that might be.

250506.jpg

Global Composite PMIs Erode

Tian Yong Woon

This week, we focus on trade developments between the US and major Asian economies. Early indications coming out of US-India trade talks seem encouraging, with terms such as “forward most-favoured-nation” for the US and “zero-for-zero” tariffs appearing in news reports — terms which, if enacted, would represent a significant win for the US. India stands to benefit greatly as well if key exports to the US, such as pharmaceuticals (chart 1), receive substantial tariff relief. The benefits could be strongly mutual if a deal also grants the US greater access to India’s large auto consumer market, particularly for major US electric vehicle (EV) producers, given that EV adoption in India remains at a very early stage (chart 2).

Turning to South Korea, discussions also appear to be progressing at a healthy pace, although details remain limited and ongoing domestic political challenges continue to hinder substantive breakthroughs. Nonetheless, the South Korean won has shown signs of stabilisation, while local equity markets have remained buoyant (chart 3). Recent trade data for April has also provided some investor relief, as weak exports to the US were more than offset by a strong performance in semiconductor shipments (chart 4).

In Japan, the race to secure a trade deal with the US is well underway, with automotive exports expected to be a key focal point given their significance to Japan’s economy and the US being a major export destination (chart 5). China, however, remains a notable outlier, with formal trade talks with the US not yet underway. Still, the US-China trade relationship continues to be the most closely watched, given its scale and potential impact on global growth and trade dynamics. While markets await China’s official April trade data, early indicators such as port activity already suggest a decline in bilateral trade flows (chart 6).

**US-India trade talks**
US-India trade discussions have reportedly been progressing rapidly, with both sides having already finalized in April the terms of reference for talks, setting the stage for formal negotiations. One early sign of favourable momentum is India’s possible offering of a “forward most-favoured-nation” clause to the US. This would ensure the US always receives the most favourable tariff terms, ahead of any other trade partner. If enacted, this would be a significant win for the US and a major leap forward in the US-India trade relationship. Another reported breakthrough involves India’s reported proposal of “zero-for-zero” tariffs on steel, auto components, and pharmaceuticals—offered on a reciprocal basis up to a certain quantity. If agreed, this would be mutually beneficial, especially as pharmaceuticals remain one of the US economy’s key imports from India, as shown in chart 1. On a separate note, and more recently, India’s phone exports to the US have reportedly gained prominence. With steep US tariffs on China, firms like Apple are increasingly incentivised to accelerate production shifts to India.

250506T1.jpg

Additionally, India’s proposed “zero-for-zero” tariff plan for auto parts may galvanise US access to India’s large domestic auto market, which has remained comparatively insulated due to high import tariffs. Another area to watch in the trade talks is electric vehicle (EV) imports, especially given US EV giant Tesla’s continued interest in expanding into the Indian market. That said, EV adoption in India remains in its early stages by many measures. While India has an immense middle class with future sales potential, EVs accounted for only about 2% of new cars sold in 2023, as shown in chart 2. This is well below levels seen in other Asian economies like China, or leaders in this space like Norway, where nearly all new cars sold are EVs. Challenges remain in unlocking the domestic Indian market—particularly around affordability and the underdeveloped state of EV infrastructure.

250506T2.jpg

**US-South Korea trade talks**
Discussions on the US-South Korea trade front also appear to be progressing at a steady pace, with technical talks reportedly having concluded in Washington last week. However, details remain limited, and full-scale negotiations have not yet begun. Complicating matters is South Korea’s domestic political landscape. With the country heading into a snap presidential election on June 3, Vice Industry Minister Park has said there is no chance of a comprehensive deal being reached before then. Still, both sides have committed to working toward an agreement before the expiration of Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff pause on July 8. In financial markets, the won continues to swing but remains above its year-to-date lows (chart 3). Meanwhile, South Korean equities have been lifted by a softening in trade rhetoric from both the US and China, as well as optimism around the US-South Korea talks.

250506T3.jpg

Turning to the hard trade data, South Korea’s more complete April numbers offered some initial relief to investors. The economy still managed to post moderate export growth, surprising many, despite a nearly 7% y/y decline in exports to the US, as shown in chart 4. One of the key drivers was semiconductors, which recorded double-digit y/y growth for the second consecutive month. However, these figures likely do not yet reflect the full initial impact of the steep mutual tariffs between the US and China. Firmer indications may emerge in the coming months. By then, though, attention will likely have shifted toward the outcome of US trade talks with key partners, as the end of its 90-day reciprocal tariff pause draws near.

250506T4.jpg

**US-Japan trade talks**
Turning to Japan, there is a sense of cautious optimism, with Japan’s chief trade negotiator Akazawa expressing hope for a US-Japan trade deal by June, following the second and most recent round of talks held in Washington last week. A key point of interest is whether Japan can negotiate an exemption from the current 25% automotive tariffs imposed by the US. This is especially significant given the importance of the US as a destination for Japanese auto exports, as shown in chart 5, and the central role the sector plays in Japan’s broader manufacturing economy. Also worth noting is a recent clarification by Japan’s Finance Minister Kato, who walked back earlier remarks and stated that Japan will not use the sale of US Treasuries as a bargaining tool. The clarification may help defuse a potential point of friction between the two sides as trade discussions continue.

250506T5.jpg

**US-China trade developments**
Turning to US-China trade developments — while progress here has lagged, this relationship remains the most closely watched, given its potentially large impact if meaningful movement occurs. Recent messaging from both sides has softened, stepping back from the fiery exchanges and tariff escalations seen earlier in April, offering some interim relief for investors. China has reportedly exempted certain US imports from tariffs, including specific pharmaceutical and industrial chemical products. However, on US-China trade talks, they remain at a very early stage, with China merely “evaluating” the prospect of negotiations with the US. This suggests we are still far from anything resembling a formal deal. Investors are now closely watching for first-round effects of US tariffs, which are expected to appear in China’s April trade numbers due later this week. Early signs point to a slowdown. For example, vessel traffic at the Los Angeles–Long Beach port remains at range lows, hinting at reduced shipments from China.

250506T6.jpg

Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Art of the Deal

250505N12.jpg

250505O12.jpg

The U.S. ISM Services PMI rose to 51.6 during April, after falling sharply to 50.8 in March from 53.5 in February, according to today’s report by the Institute for Supply Management. The reading indicated service sector expansion for the tenth consecutive month, although the rate of expansion has slowed significantly. The index hit a recent high of 55.8 in October of last year and remains below the all-time high of 67.5 in November 2021. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 50.2 for April.

Haver Analytics constructs a composite index combining the services index and the manufacturing index released on Thursday. This index rose to 51.2 in Apri from 50.6 in March. The latest figure remains above its June low of 49.1.

Amongst the services component series, the employment index led last month’s improvement in the overall index. It rose to 49.0 after falling sharply to 46.2 in March. Higher employment was reported by a slightly improved 14.6% (NSA) of respondents while a lessened 16.4% reported a decline. The new orders index rose to 52.3 after falling to 50.4 in March. A higher 22.4% (NSA) of respondents reported a rise in orders while a lessened 15.3% reported a decline. Reporting slower delivery speeds, the supplier delivery series edged up to 51.3 in April after falling to 50.6 in March. Working lower, the business activity series declined to 53.7 after rising to 55.9 in March. A higher 26.2% (NSA) of respondents reported improved activity while a lessened 14.0% reported deterioration.

On the inflation front, the prices index surged to 68.9 in April after easing to 62.8 in March. A greatly increased 39.6% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while a lessened 1.9% reported lower prices. The index was increased from its December 2022 low 53.1 and stood at its highest level since October 2022.

Additionally, the new export orders index increased to 48.6 (NSA) in April following a decline to 45.8 in March from 52.1 in February. Just 14.8% of survey respondents reported higher exports while an increased 17.7% reported a decline. The imports index plummeted to 44.3 last month from 52.6 in March. A greatly lessened 4.7% of respondents reported higher imports while a doubled 16.2% reported a decline. The inventory change index jumped to 53.4, a six-month high. The order backlog index edged up to 48.0 in April after falling sharply to 47.4 in March. A lessened 12.2% of respondents reported higher backlogs while a fewer 16.2% reported a decline. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while below 50 suggests	 contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250505P12.jpg

250505Q12.jpg

- Total index remains near nine-month low.
- Employment, new orders & supplier deliveries edge up. Business activity weakens. 
- Prices Index strengthens to roughly two-year high.

U.S. ISM Services PMI Edges Higher in April; Prices Strengthen

Economy in Brief: October 2010

Jump to:

ISM Index Falls To Lowest Since Last November As Pricing Firms

German Retail Sales Tick Back Into The Plus Column

Personal Income Boosted By Jobless Insurance Payouts