Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Feb 15 2004

  U.S. Retail Sales Fell, Nonauto Spending Moderate

  US retail sales fell 0.3% in January, about as expected due to a 3.3% (+5.6% y/y) decline in spending on motor vehicles. The 1.1% rise in December sales was little revised. Sales excluding motor vehicles rose 0.6% following an [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 15 2004

  U.S. Retail Sales Fell, Nonauto Spending Moderate

  US retail sales fell 0.3% in January, about as expected due to a 3.3% (+5.6% y/y) decline in spending on motor vehicles. The 1.1% rise in December sales was little revised. Sales excluding motor vehicles rose 0.6% following an [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 13 2004

  U.S. Trade Deficit Deepened

  The U.S. foreign trade deficit deepened sharply in December to $42.5. November's deficit was revised slightly deeper to $38.4B. Consensus expectations had been for a deficit of $39.5B. For 2003, the deficit of $489.4B by far set the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 12 2004

  U.S. Retail Sales Fall Due To Lower Autos, Non-auto Strong

  Retail sales fell 0.3% last month versus the Consensus expectation for a 0.1% gain. The previously reported 0.5% rise in December sales was revised down to a 0.2% increase. Motor vehicle dealers' sales fell 3.9% m/m as unit sales of [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 11 2004

  Small Business Optimism Dipped

  The January Small Business Optimism Index published by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) dipped 1.0% m/m but remained near a record level at 105.8. The m/m decline reflected modest declines in the percent of small [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 10 2004

  OECD Leaders Firm

  The Index of Leading Indicators for the Major Seven OECD Countries finished 2003 with another firm gain. The 0.7% (5.9% y/y) rise in December was the ninth consecutive month of strength. Six-month growth in the leading index rose to [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 09 2004

  ECRI Leading Indicators Signal Economic Expansion

  The Weekly Leading Index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) moved higher through much of January and earlier figures were revised up. The six-month growth rate of the weekly leading index at [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 06 2004

  U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Disappoint Again

  Growth in nonfarm payrolls again missed expectations. The 112,000 rise in January was versus Consensus expectations for a 175,000 gain. It was the fifth consecutive monthly rise in payrolls. Increases during prior months were raised [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 05 2004

  Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Up In Latest Week

  Initial claims for jobless insurance rose last week by 17,000 to 356,000. The prior week's level was revised down. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 342,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims was unchanged at [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 04 2004

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Below Expectations

  Unit sales of light vehicles fell 9.1% m/m in January to 16.13M, the lowest level since October. Consensus expectations were for sales of 17.0M. Revised seasonal factors altered the monthly figures for 2003. Car sales fell 7.4% m/m to [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 03 2004

  Chain Store Sales Backpedal

  Chain store sales fell 1.3% last week, according to the ICSC-UBS survey, and gave back all of the prior week's 1.1% pop. Nevertheless, sales for the full month of January rose 1.6% versus December. During the last ten years there has [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 02 2004

  U.S. Personal Income Growth Moderate

  Personal income rose an expected 0.2% (+3.8% y/y) in December, just under the average gain during the last five months. Personal disposable income also rose 0.2% (4.7% y/y), but that was an acceleration from the average five-month [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief