Global| Feb 15 2004U.S. Retail Sales Fell, Nonauto Spending Moderate
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
US retail sales fell 0.3% in January, about as expected due to a 3.3% (+5.6% y/y) decline in spending on motor vehicles. The 1.1% rise in December sales was little revised. Sales excluding motor vehicles rose 0.6% following an [...]
US retail sales fell 0.3% in January, about as expected due to a 3.3% (+5.6% y/y) decline in spending on motor vehicles. The 1.1% rise in December sales was little revised.
Sales excluding motor vehicles rose 0.6% following an unrevised 0.4% increase in December. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.5% gain.
Spending on discretionary items was mixed last month. Apparel store sales jumped 1.8% (3.9%) following two months of decline and sales at general merchandise stores gained 0.9% (6.5% y/y). Sales at furniture & home furnishings stores fell 0.4% (+1.9% y/y) for the third consecutive monthly decline and building material store sales fell 0.3% (+14.1% y/y).
Sales of nonstore retailers (internet and catalogue) fell 0.2%, 11.3% y/y, but these sales have risen to 9% of nonauto retail sales less gasoline versus less than 7% ten years ago.
Gasoline service station sales recovered 1.8% (17.3% y/y) even though gasoline prices fell slightly last month. Nonauto retail sales less gasoline rose 0.5% (6.6% y/y) in January. In February gasoline prices have risen 4.0% versus January.
| Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.3% | 1.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.6% | 0.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 3.2% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
