US economic growth last quarter of 4.0% (AR) was somewhat below Consensus expectations for 4.8%. The gain was half the 8.2% of 3Q but it raised growth for the full year to 3.1%, the fastest since 2000. Much of the disappointment in 4Q [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Jan 30 20044Q U.S. GDP Light at 4.0%
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 29 2004
Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Flat
Initial claims for jobless insurance nudged lower last week by 1,000 to 342,000. The prior week's level was revised up slightly. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 341,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 28 2004
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Flat
Durable goods orders were roughly unchanged last month. The previously reported 3.1% plunge in November orders was lessened to a 2.3% drop. Consensus expectations had been for a 2.0% rise in December orders. Weaker orders in the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 27 2004
Chain Store Sales Surged
Chain store sales surged 1.1% last week according to the ICSC-UBS survey. The pop recouped all of the sales decline during the prior two weeks and was driven by clearance promotions and surging consumer sentiment. Sales in January [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 26 2004
Existing Home Sales Up, 2003 Sets Record
Sales of existing single family homes reported by the National Association of Realtors rose 6.9% m/m in December. The rise to 6.47M. erased much of the prior two months' decline from the record high in September. Consensus [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 23 2004
Metals Lead Gains in Commodity Prices
Prices of industrial metals surged as industrial activity strengthened recently. During the past year, the JoC-ECRI index of metals prices jumped by one-third reflecting a 90% rise in steel scrap prices, a 46% rise in copper prices, a [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 22 2004
Jobless Insurance Claims Dip
Initial claims for jobless insurance edged 1,000 lower last week to 341,000. The prior week's level was revised down slightly. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 340,000. The latest claims figure covers the survey period [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 21 2004
Housing Starts Strong
Housing starts added another 1.7% in December, rising to the highest level since February 1984. Consensus forecasts had been for a moderate decline versus November which was revised down. For the year, 2003 was the strongest for [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 20 2004
Empire State Index At A New High
The Empire State Index of General Business Conditions for January rose three points to 39.22, a record high, and confirmed the indication of strength in the factory sector from the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey. The new [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 16 2004
U.S. Industrial Production Edged Up
Industrial production edged up 0.1% in December, quite a bit less than Consensus expectations for a 0.7% rise. Utility output fell 1.3% (-0.7% y/y). The factory sector faired better last month and added 0.3% to the upwardly revised [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 15 2004
U.S. Retail Sales Disappoint
Retail sales rose 0.5% last month, somewhat less than the 0.8% Consensus expectation. The previously reported 0.9% gain in November sales was revised up to a 1.2% increase. Sales of nonstore retailers surged 2.1% (9.1% y/y). Motor [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 14 2004
Producer Prices Rose, Core Index Fell
Finished producer prices rose 0.3% in December and reversed the prior month's 0.3% decline. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% gain. For 2003 the PPI rose 3.2%, the largest increase since 2000. Core producer prices fell 0.1% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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