Global| Jan 23 2004Metals Lead Gains in Commodity Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Prices of industrial metals surged as industrial activity strengthened recently. During the past year, the JoC-ECRI index of metals prices jumped by one-third reflecting a 90% rise in steel scrap prices, a 46% rise in copper prices, a [...]
Prices of industrial metals surged as industrial activity strengthened recently. During the past year, the JoC-ECRI index of metals prices jumped by one-third reflecting a 90% rise in steel scrap prices, a 46% rise in copper prices, a 27% rise in tin prices and a 15% gain in aluminum prices.
During the last twenty years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in metals prices as measured by the Journal of Commerce/ECRI index and the change in factory sector industrial production.
The overall JoC-ECRI index rose 24% during the past year. Petroleum products prices rose 11% as West Texas Intermediate crude oil briefly topped $36.00/bbl. Prices for textiles rose 12% during the past year as cotton prices surged 41%.
Elsewhere, gold prices briefly topped $425/oz. (+20% y/y) earlier this month before a recent drop. Silver is up nearly one third the past year as is platinum.
Steer prices, which neared $110/cwt, retraced a portion of their earlier strength.
| Commodity Prices | 1/22/04 | 12/31/03 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold: Handy & Harman Base Price ($/oz.) | $409.25 | $416.70 | 12.2% | $363.13 | $310.05 | $271.06 |
| Stainless Steel Scrap ($/gross ton) | $1,495.00 | $1,265.00 | 90.4% | $953.75 | $717.10 | $650.52 |
| Copper: High Grade (COMEX, $/Lb.) | $1.12 | $1.04 | 45.7% | $0.81 | $0.72 | $0.73 |
| Steers: Cash Price: Texas-Oklahoma Avg. ($/cwt) | $85.97 | $75.70 | 28.0% | $83.01 | $66.54 | $71.86 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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