Global| Feb 12 2004U.S. Retail Sales Fall Due To Lower Autos, Non-auto Strong
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Retail sales fell 0.3% last month versus the Consensus expectation for a 0.1% gain. The previously reported 0.5% rise in December sales was revised down to a 0.2% increase. Motor vehicle dealers' sales fell 3.9% m/m as unit sales of [...]
Retail sales fell 0.3% last month versus the Consensus expectation for a 0.1% gain. The previously reported 0.5% rise in December sales was revised down to a 0.2% increase.
Motor vehicle dealers' sales fell 3.9% m/m as unit sales of light vehicles dropped 9.1% to 16.13M. Dealers' sales of motor vehicles in December were revised down to a 0.2% gain versus the advance report of a 1.6% m/m rise.
Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts dealers popped 0.9% last month and the 0.1% December gain was revised to 0.2%. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.4% rise in January.
Clothing and accessory store sales surged 2.9% (6.7% y/y) following a downwardly revised 0.2% decline in December. Sales at general merchandise stores jumped 1.0% (6.9% y/y) after an unrevised 0.3% December gain.Sales of furniture/home furnishings & electronics/appliances slipped 0.4% (+8.2% y/y) and the December gain also was revised down to just 0.1%.
Sales of non-store retailers fell 0.3% (+7.0% y/y). The advance report of a 2.1% December surge was tempered to a 0.9% rise.
Sales of building materials fell 0.9% (8.9% y/y) following a 0.6% December gain, revised from a 0.3% decline reported initially.
| Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.3% | 0.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.9% | 0.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% |
by Tom Moeller February 12, 2004
Initial claims for jobless insurance rose by 6,000 (1.7%) to 363,000 last week. It was the second consecutive weekly rise. The prior week's level was little revised. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 350,000.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 350,500 (-9.9% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 23,000 w/w and the prior week's level was revised down.
The insured rate of unemployment fell to 2.4%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/07/04 | 01/31/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 363.0 | 357.0 | -4.0% | 403 | 404 | 406 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,083 | -6.9% | 3,535 | 3,575 | 3,022 |
by Tom Moeller February 12, 2004
Total business inventories rose in December for the fourth consecutive month. The 0.3% rise was slightly higher than Consensus expectations for a 0.2% increase.
During the last ten years there has been a 46% correlation between the three month change in business inventories and the three month change in US factory production.
Retail inventories rose 0.3% in December but recent strong gains in inventories of motor vehicles & parts moderated to just 0.1% (8.2% y/y).
Accumulation of retail inventories less autos continued at the reasonably strong pace of the last several months, up 0.4%. Inventories at general merchandise stores surged 1.1% (+2.0% y/y). Inventories of furniture rose a firm 0.6% (8.4% y/y). Apparel inventories eked out a 0.1% gain that followed a 0.9% November jump (+2.0% y/y).
Overall business sales jumped 0.9% (7.0% y/y) on the strength of a 1.5% (7.2% y/y) gain in factory shipments and a 1.0% (8.0% y/y) surge in wholesale sales.
The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to a new record low of 1.34.
| Business Inventories | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | -4.7% |
| Retail | 0.3% | 0.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.5% | -2.9% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.4% | 0.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | -1.2% |
| Wholesale | 0.6% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | -4.9% |
| Manufacturing | -0.0% | -0.1% | -1.4% | -1.4% | -1.8% | -6.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
