German confidence in the GfK survey has gone from a highflying set of optimistic readings prior to the Covid-19 crisis to a weak wobbling and slipping assessment of German welfare. The index that assesses economic climate on a scale [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Dec 22 2020German Confidence Is Sliding on a Slippery Slope
- Global| Dec 21 2020
U.K. Retail Signals Are Mixed, Improved from November, and Still Sour
The CBI (Confederation of British Industry) survey of U.K. retailers shows clear December improvement compared to November. All current retail measures are better than in November and the inventory reading is leaner (in fact extremely [...]
- Global| Dec 18 2020
IFO Surprisingly Improves...for Now
The IFO gauge of the German economy, a venerated report on the state of economic conditions in Germany, logged a surprising improvement in December. The climate gauge rose to +5.0 in December from +1.5 in November. The current [...]
- Global| Dec 17 2020
INSEE Survey Shows Gain in Mfg and Sharp Improvement in Services; A Second Rebound... and Still a Massive [...]
Sectors beat up: black and blue French manufacturing and services sectors are stronger month-to-month in the December INSEE surveys. Still, both are well short of where they were before the Covid-19 virus struck. Compared to February, [...]
- Global| Dec 16 2020
Japan's Trade Balance Shifted to a Large Surplus in November As Imports Fell Faster Than Exports
Japan's exports headed lower in November but still commanded a strong growth rate over the last three months. Imports are lower in November by 4%, a large drop; they also are growing over three months but not as robustly as exports. [...]
- Global| Dec 15 2020
EMU Inflation Remains Subdued and Well Below Limit; So What Is and Where Is the Risk?
EMU inflation trends The chart gives the big picture overview of trend based on year-on-year calculation conducted on headline inflation. On that basis, inflation has been well under-wraps. The ECB has not met or exceeded its [...]
- Global| Dec 14 2020
Japan's Tankan and Outlook Improve Despite Ongoing Global Pandemic
Japan's tankan survey for large firms improved this quarter with the current manufacturing index logging a value of -10 compared with -27 last month. The manufacturing outlook improved to -8 from -17 last quarter. The tankan is a [...]
- Global| Dec 11 2020
German HICP Continues Negative Year-on-Year
No major central bank is experiencing any trouble with accelerating inflation at the moment. The virus has recirculated and that is slowing things down again keeping slack conditions present globally although also creating some [...]
- Global| Dec 10 2020
French IP Index Still Lags Below Pre-Covid-19 Levels in October
French manufacturing IP rose by 0.5% in October after a 2.3% gain in September. IP is up at a 48.4% annual rate over three months, at a 129.7% annual rate over six months and yet still lower by 5.7% over 12 months. Such has been the [...]
- Global| Dec 09 2020
German Trade Surplus Widens As Exports Outpace Imports...Again
The chart, presenting the year-on-year trade flow percent changes and the monthly trade balance, offers a good perspective on the forces and timing of events affecting the German trade situation. The surplus reached its low point in [...]
- Global| Dec 08 2020
ZEW Assessments Are Mixed in December with Expectations on the Mend
The economic situation in December is assessed as mixed by the ZEW experts with two regions (the EMU and France) deemed stronger and the rest weaker. Economic expectations are firmer across the board, however. Inflation is seen as [...]
- Global| Dec 07 2020
German IP Continues to Snap Back
Germany's industrial production gained 3.2% in October after a 2.3% rise in September to put together two strong months of results. Sequential growth rates show IP up at very strong rates of change over both three months and six [...]
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