The chart at top shows the Yr/Yr trend in EMU consumer spending. It is working its way lower, lead by a declining trend in consumer spending plans. The Yr/Yr drops seem to have stopped to hover around the -2% pace, Yr/Yr. But the [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
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Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Feb 04 2009EMU Consumer Spending Tanks Along With Spending Plans
- Global| Feb 03 2009
PPI For E-Zone Is Plunging
Of course the ECB sets its inflation ceiling for the HICP (consumer price index) not for the PPI. Still, the sharp drop in Europes PPI inflation a drop that spreads pretty much across the board (see table) - is simply another [...]
- Global| Feb 03 2009
German Retail Sales Head South For The Winter
German nominal and real ex-auto retail sales are off for the third month in a row. In the fourth quarter nominal retail sales are off at a 4% pace; ex-auto real retail sales are dropping at a 2.1% pace. The sequential growth rates [...]
- Global| Feb 02 2009
MFG PMIs Stop Their Descent
The PMIs for Europe reside very near the bottom of their respective ranges. Generally the readings are bottom 10% of range or less across large EMU members and the UK. Germany is now one of the relative weakest countries on this [...]
- Global| Jan 30 2009
Japan Hits The Skids Hard In December
The drop off in Japan’s industrial production index is now extraordinary as it has posted a month-to-month drop of nearly double digits. Over three months Japan’s IP is plunging at a 58% annual rate. It is also down by 22.5% Yr/Yr. [...]
- Global| Jan 30 2009
EU Index At Record Low
The EU sentiment index has fallen to a record low. Most of its sector readings are on lows as well. Construction, in the lower 13% of its range, is the strongest sector in relative terms. The sentiment indices for the major EMU [...]
- Global| Jan 28 2009
Italy's Business Confidence Continues To Drop
While business sentiment is falling to new lows and very low lows in Italy , the good news is that the pace of decline is letting up. Italy ’s businesses are clearly in bad shape and concerned. But maybe the rate of deterioration and [...]
- Global| Jan 27 2009
German Biz Confidence In a Small Rebound: What's All the Fuss?
The German IFO index made a small rebound in January and that has caused some excited stirring in markets. Still the IFO Business climate index is very weak and the EMU sentiment index for Germany (Dec) is even lower than it was in [...]
- Global| Jan 26 2009
Canada's Mixed Inflation Picture...
While headline inflation continues to lose steam in Canada as it does everywhere else in the world, Canada’s core rate is not on that same page. Over three-months core inflation has escalated to a pace of +2.6% from under 2% over [...]
- Global| Jan 23 2009
PMI Indices for EMU Bounce – Dead Cat or Live One?
Hooray! The MFG and Services PMIs for Europe in January have bounced. It’s too soon to call it a bottom but since they are bouncing off historic- or near-historic lows, maybe we have seen the worst of decay. Even if that is true it is [...]
- Global| Jan 22 2009
E-Zone Orders Drop Sharply...Again
E-Zone orders are dropping sharply in November. Based on some more topical country level reports, it is not surprising that the EMU orders series made another sharp fall – and more those lie ahead. Today, in fact, the UK CBI survey of [...]
- Global| Jan 21 2009
German PPI Points To Lower Inflation Ahead
Germany’s PPI for manufactured goods fell by 0.8% in December and is falling at an accelerated rate along with its ex-energy measure. In the fourth quarter MFG producer prices fell at a 4% pace compared to ex–energy prices that fell [...]
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