Global| Feb 04 2010German Orders Dive In December
Summary
German Industrial orders are still rising Yr/Yr but they took a steep fall in December dropping by 2.3%. Foreign orders led the way lower falling by 3.2% with domestic-sourced orders off by just 1.4% Overall MFG sales also fell in [...]
German Industrial orders are still rising Yr/Yr but they took a steep fall in December dropping by 2.3%. Foreign orders led the way lower falling by 3.2% with domestic-sourced orders off by just 1.4% Overall MFG sales also fell in December dropping at a 2% month-to-month pace.
With the December drop in place, orders are now decelerating over three-months compared to six months. The progression of accelerating growth rates has been interrupted. Foreign orders are responsible for this backtracking as domestic orders are still advancing over three months and surpassing their six month growth results
The report was a shock to markets. On a day in which Greeks are starting to bristle and strike to avoid the pain of their self-imposed austerity plan and stock markets in debt-ladened EMU countries are being bashed it is a ‘fitting’ piece of bad news.
| German Orders and Sales By Sector and Origin | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real and SA | % M/M | % Saar | ||||||
| Dec-09 | Nov-09 | Oct-09 | 3-MO | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | YrAgo | QTR-2-Date | |
| Total Orders | -2.3% | 2.7% | -1.7% | -5.5% | -2.8% | 6.4% | -30.5% | 2.6% |
| Foreign | -3.2% | 3.6% | -3.3% | -11.3% | -5.8% | 7.2% | -33.2% | 10.1% |
| Domestic | -1.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 5.5% | -27.1% | -5.0% |
| Real Sector Sales | ||||||||
| MFG/Mining | -2.0% | 0.1% | -0.4% | -8.9% | -4.6% | -5.7% | -12.6% | 3.2% |
| Consumer | 2.4% | 2.0% | -0.2% | 18.1% | 8.7% | -4.2% | -2.8% | 7.4% |
| Cons Durables | 0.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 24.8% | 11.7% | -4.4% | -13.3% | 18.5% |
| Cons Non-Durable | 2.8% | 1.9% | -0.6% | 17.3% | 8.3% | -4.1% | -0.9% | 5.8% |
| Captial Gds | -3.1% | 0.4% | -3.3% | -21.8% | -11.5% | -9.2% | -15.4% | -2.0% |
| Intermediate Gds | -2.9% | -0.5% | 3.2% | -1.2% | -0.6% | 0.0% | -16.1% | 11.0% |
| All MFG-Sales | -2.0% | 0.3% | -0.5% | -8.5% | -4.4% | -5.6% | -12.7% | 3.3% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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