Global| Feb 02 2010German Retail Sales In Very Slow-Motion Recovery
Summary
German retail sales rose by 0.8% in both real and nominal terms (ex autos) in December. The rise still leaves the 3-month nominal growth rate for sales in a mild negative path while in real terms retail sales are flat over three [...]
German retail sales rose by 0.8% in both real and nominal terms (ex autos) in December. The rise still leaves the 3-month nominal growth rate for sales in a mild negative path while in real terms retail sales are flat over three months. In the quarter the annual rate pace for both real and nominal sales is just below 1%. Car sales that had boosted consumer activity due to government incentives to buy a new car and scrap an old one have now left sales week. Auto registration fell by 15.7% in December after falling by 9.8% in November. Auto registrations are now off by 4.7% Yr/Yr
The trend for the German consumer is still poor. There is a very gradual improvement as the negative growth rates are climbing slowly back toward zero. But at this pace the German consumer is not posed to take the German economy anywhere.
German Real and Nominal Retail Sales| German Real and Nominal Retail Sales | QTR | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal | Dec-09 | Nov-09 | Oct-09 | 3-MO | 6-MO | 12-MO | YrAgo | Saar |
| Retaill Ex auto | 0.8% | -1.9% | 1.0% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -1.8% | 3.2% | -0.8% |
| MV and Parts | 0.8% | -1.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.4% | -2.5% | 3.4% | -0.7% |
| Food Bev & Tobacco | 1.0% | -0.5% | -0.9% | -1.6% | 0.4% | -0.9% | 4.1% | -5.1% |
| Clothing footwear | 3.4% | -9.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 1.9% | 10.6% |
| car registrations (units) | -15.7% | -9.8% | -0.1% | -66.6% | -60.2% | -4.7% | -6.7% | 0.0% |
| Real | ||||||||
| Retail Ex auto | 0.8% | -1.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.4% | -2.5% | 3.4% | -0.7% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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