Global| Feb 05 2010OECD LEIs Make Strong Advances
Summary
The six-month progressions show that the OECD LEIs are getting progressively stronger. Over 12-months growth rates are positive; annualized rates accelerate over six months but growth rates backed off over three months. The OECD and [...]
The six-month progressions show that the OECD LEIs are getting progressively stronger. Over 12-months growth rates are positive; annualized rates accelerate over six months but growth rates backed off over three months.
The OECD and its main countries are showing consistent and strong growth rates over the most recent six months.
The 7% to 10% growth rates over 12-months are in excess of what we have seen in the past two recoveries. Japan is still lagging in this cycle with a 12-month gain of only 3.5%. But the e-Zone is up by 9.7% and the US indicator is up by 7.3% over 12 months. Japan is showing strong growth in its LEI over three-months.
The OECD series still seems to endorse the idea of a recovery that will gain momentum and become strong.
| OECD Trend-Restored Leading Indicators | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth progression-SAAR | ||||
| 3Mos | 6Mos | 12mos | Yr-Ago | |
| OECD | 9.4% | 11.9% | 8.3% | -10.8% |
| OECD7 | 9.8% | 12.5% | 7.8% | -11.6% |
| OECD.Ezone | 9.5% | 12.3% | 9.7% | -11.6% |
| OECD.Japan | 10.3% | 11.4% | 3.5% | -11.4% |
| OECD US | 10.1% | 12.4% | 7.3% | -11.5% |
| Six Month Readings at 6-Mo Intervals: | ||||
| Recent six | 6Mo Ago | 12Mo Ago | 18MO Ago | |
| OECD | 11.9% | 4.7% | -15.9% | -5.3% |
| OECD7 | 12.5% | 3.2% | -17.3% | -5.5% |
| OECD.Eur | 12.3% | 7.1% | -15.4% | -7.7% |
| OECD.Japan | 11.4% | -3.9% | -19.3% | -2.8% |
| OECD US | 12.4% | 2.4% | -17.9% | -4.5% |
| Slowdowns indicated by BOLD RED | ||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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