The plunge in the US, Japan and European LEIs is quite characteristic of recession as the chart on top demonstrates. However, the severity of the declines is unusual. In the past 40-Years only the 1973-75 downturn produced larger [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Mar 06 2009OECD LEI's Show Severe And Worsening Downturn
- Global| Mar 04 2009
EMU Services Contract as UK Sector Cuts Losses
This trend is not a friend - In our select group of EMU members (see table) all show month-to-month deterioration in services activity. Meanwhile, the UK continues to cut losses relative to its November low. The US follows a pattern [...]
- Global| Mar 03 2009
Swiss GDP: In The Soup With The Rest Of Europe
Swiss GDP is taking a hit like the rest of European GDP. Capital formation in Switzerland is being hit especially hard. Switzerland, the graph above shows, has been somewhat resistant to decline in its GDP aggregate until recently [...]
- Global| Mar 02 2009
Euro Area MFG PMIs Drop
Despite the slippage some consolidation is evident. Germany Spain and Austria were among the ground hogs that left their heads in February and did not scurry lower for the winter. There, MFG PMIs managed to stay higher even though for [...]
- Global| Feb 27 2009
Deflation Is Back!
Deflation strikes back -- Uh, oh… Japan’s prices are falling again. The chart of Japan’s Core CPI looks like the path of the ground hog on ground hog’s day. In this case it is not four more weeks of winter but another bout with [...]
- Global| Feb 26 2009
EU/EMU Indices Crash Again In February
As the COIN index had predicted earlier in the week, the Euro area continues to labor under downward pressure in February. The sector indices for EU were mostly lower again in February as the EU sentiment index was at a new all-time [...]
- Global| Feb 25 2009
Yen-Based Japan Exports Are Cut Nearly In Half
In a stunning blow to a reeling economy Japan reports that its exports are lower in January compared to one year ago by 45% - nearly halving of the flow. There are several components to this drop. One is the yen that has risen; that [...]
- Global| Feb 23 2009
Italy's Inflation Rates Show Turn of Trend
Italy’s headline HICP inflation rate fell by 0.6% in January. Its domestic inflation measure fell by 0.2%. Both series show that inflation has dropped sharply. The Yr/Yr pace for the HICP, or harmonized rate, is 1.4% down from 3.2% a [...]
- Global| Feb 20 2009
Euro Area PMIs Continue To Drop... Very Sharply
The European PMI readings are very weak again in February. In January there was a slight bounce in the indices for MFG as well as for Services but in February the weakness is back in force with the indices dropping very sharply - [...]
- Global| Feb 19 2009
Italy's Trade Flows Dive In December
Italy’s exports fell in December but imports plunged helping to boost the trade account and to shift the balance of trade on goods into surplus in December. Italy’s current account deficit is still on a deteriorating trend, even with [...]
- Global| Feb 18 2009
CBI Finds Further Weakening
The UK MFG sector weakened further in February. The total orders index is at its lowest since 2000 as is the export order reading. Stocks of finished goods have never had a higher reading. Looking ahead the expected outlook over the [...]
- Global| Feb 17 2009
Exports and Imports Plunge in the Euro Area as Deficit Contracts
Recession has hit the Euro Area trade flows hard as exports already lower by 6.8% lower in November fell by another 0.9% in December. But imports that fell by 4.8% on November fell by a further-chilling 3.9% in December. The [...]
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