Global| Feb 23 2009Italy's Inflation Rates Show Turn of Trend
Summary
Italy’s headline HICP inflation rate fell by 0.6% in January. Its domestic inflation measure fell by 0.2%. Both series show that inflation has dropped sharply. The Yr/Yr pace for the HICP, or harmonized rate, is 1.4% down from 3.2% a [...]
Italy’s headline HICP inflation rate fell by 0.6% in January.
Its domestic inflation measure fell by 0.2%. Both series show that
inflation has dropped sharply. The Yr/Yr pace for the HICP, or
harmonized rate, is 1.4% down from 3.2% a year ago at this time. The
domestic rate at 1.6% is down from 3% one year ago.
Our diffusion calculations (see table above) show that over
three-months and six-months inflation has been decelerating across more
sectors that it has been accelerating (a value of 50 is neutral; below
that inflation is decelerating in more sectors than it is
accelerating). The deceleration noted by the diffusion indices is
pronounced. It is not just due to a drop in energy prices.
| Italy HICP and CPI details | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mo/Mo % | Saar % | Yr/Yr | |||||
| Jan-09 | Dec-08 | Nov-08 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr Ago | |
| HICP Total | -0.6% | 0.0% | -0.5% | -4.0% | -0.9% | 1.4% | 3.2% |
| Core | #N/A | 0.2% | 0.1% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 2.5% |
| CPI | |||||||
| All | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.4% | -2.6% | -0.9% | 1.6% | 3.0% |
| Food | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% |
| Alcohol | -0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.5% |
| Clothing & Shoes | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Rent &Util | -0.9% | 0.2% | -0.3% | -3.7% | -1.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| Housing &Furniture | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.7% |
| Health Care | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Transport | -0.7% | -1.0% | -2.1% | -14.5% | -9.0% | -1.5% | 5.5% |
| Communication | -0.4% | 0.1% | -0.1% | -1.8% | -4.0% | -3.2% | -8.5% |
| Rec &Culture | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | -1.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| Education | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| Restaurant & Hotel | -0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.3% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% |
| Other | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Diffusion | -- | -- | -- | 16.7% | 16.7% | 33.3% | -- |
| Type: | Diffusion: Compared to | 6-mo | 12-mo | Yr-Ago | -- | ||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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