It's a split decision on the EMU this month as services are weaker and manufacturing is stronger. However, the relatively greater services weight has the tiebreaker in terms of the impact on the overall PMI which is slightly lower in [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Jan 24 2017EMU PMIs Ease on Weaker Services As Manufacturing Continues Stronger
- Global| Jan 23 2017
Japan's Sector Survey Crawls Higher
Japan's sector surveys were only able to crawl higher in November as the industrial and services gauges rose while construction slipped to hold the overall advance back. The all-industry index rose to 103.6 in November from 103.3 in [...]
- Global| Jan 20 2017
German PPI Takes Wing...Even Excluding Energy
As the ECB met this past week, policy was kept on an even keel despite pressures from rising oil prices. ECB President Mario Draghi has said that he is unconvinced that there is an underlying trend to inflation. Draghi sees energy, a [...]
- Global| Jan 19 2017
EMU Current Account Surplus Trumps the Past...All of It
The euro area has set a new record high current account surplus at 36.1 billion euros in November. And while the ECB has just met and decided to kick the can down the road for a bit longer, international policy is showing itself to be [...]
- Global| Jan 18 2017
Euro Area Inflation Turns Higher
The chart features the year-on-year inflation result in the three largest EMU economies as well as the economy-weighted result for the EMU itself. Inflation is turning higher in each of the countries in the chart but at different [...]
- Global| Jan 17 2017
ZEW Shows Improvement in German Current Conditions and Expectations
Table 1 shows a sharp improvement in German current conditions and a rise in German expectations. The German current index has been better historically less than 7% of the time while expectations are better about 54% of the time. [...]
- Global| Jan 13 2017
EMU Surpluses and Trump Trade-o-nomics; Food for thought on Friday the 13th
Every picture tells a story, don't it? Bad grammar? Yes, but a truism nonetheless. The chart on the left pictures the German and EMU current accounts as a percentage of GDP. Since late 2000, these values have been positive indicating [...]
- Global| Jan 12 2017
EMU IP Gains 1.5% in November
EMU industrial output spurted by 1.5% in November, more than expected but only after October's dismal 0.1% gain. The headline series (EMU IP excluding construction) shows a weaker growth rate 3.4% over three months compared to its [...]
- Global| Jan 11 2017
OECD Leading Indicators Disappoint and Fail to Illuminate
There is no magic in the OECD leading indicators this month. Yet, there is some positive momentum in play. The OECD likes to look at these indicators compared to six months ago so we provide a view of six-month changes and levels in [...]
- Global| Jan 10 2017
Japan's Confidence: Bounce to Nowhere
Japan's consumer confidence, a diffusion measure, rose sharply month-to-month, regaining the ground it lost on the previous month's sharp drop. Despite the jump, there is little lift in the series that lingers below the neutral mark [...]
- Global| Jan 09 2017
EMU: Fast Rising Inflation Meets Falling Unemployment Trend-Collison Course!
In the euro area, unemployment which was flat month-on-month in November is nonetheless moving lower on trend as the inflation rate has spiked up, boosted by oil. This combination of motions is surely going to put pressure on the ECB [...]
- Global| Jan 06 2017
German Orders Fall Sharply in November But Acceleration Pattern Is Still in Place
German orders fell sharply in November but only after an even larger gain in October, one that in percentage terms was twice the size of the November drop. On balance, orders still carry upward momentum from their October spurt. [...]
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