German trends but more broadly European trends are pointing lower. Germany's IP drop is formally listed as ‘unexpected.' But after four months in a row of orders declining one has to wonder why would a drop in output be unexpected [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Jun 08 2018German IP Follows Orders Lower...Much of Europe Joins Trend
- Global| Jun 07 2018
German Real Orders Drop for Fourth Month in a Row Forget Denmark - What’S Rotten in Germany?
German new orders fell by 2.5% in April marking their fourth straight monthly drop, a highly unusual development. Domestic orders are down in two of the last three months as are foreign orders. Orders growth rates steadily decelerate [...]
- Global| Jun 06 2018
Volatile Spanish Industrial Output Declines in April
The trend for Spain’s industrial output shows ongoing increases since 2014. The headline index for industrial production, the mining sector and the index for all manufacturing show secular deterioration in their respective growth [...]
- Global| Jun 05 2018
Composite PMIs Show Wear and Tear
The services PMIs from Markit finalized today and with that the composite (or total) PMIs also finalized. EMU and its two largest member economies show weakened Composite PMI readings. Japan’s composite weakened. China’s composite was [...]
- Global| Jun 04 2018
EMU PPI Slows
The EMU PPI was a tick weaker in April as it rose by 0.1% after gaining 0.2% in March. The EMU PPI generally (but not totally, consumer goods were an exception) accelerated from 12-months to 6-months then decelerated from 6-months to [...]
- Global| Jun 01 2018
Asian Manufacturing PMIs Remain Stunted
Manufacturing PMIs from the early-reporting Asian nations show that manufacturing has firmed slightly in May, but without generating any real signs of life. PMIs eased in two of seven reporters and gained pace in five of seven. April [...]
- Global| May 31 2018
Oil Prices Drive HICP to Target...Will They Stay There?
The most noticeable thing about this month’s jump in the HICP is that it is abrupt everywhere. Inflation this month owes a good deal of its jump to hopping-hot oil prices. While the ECB headline rate at 1.9% must be construed as at [...]
- Global| May 30 2018
Day of ‘Wreckoning?’; EU Commission Indexes Slip, Inflation Perks Up and the Italian Crisis Roars on
Suddenly, the euro area is in turmoil. At the turn of the year, just about every investment manager was touting Europe as the place to be: give your portfolio a European vacation! There would be recovery. It already was looking [...]
- Global| May 29 2018
EMU Money and Credit Growth Remain Weak As 'Success' Stalks EMU
Money and credit growth in the EMU area remain weak. There is a slight firming to trends in April but I emphasize the word 'slight.' There is no trend change and nothing to stoke new hopes or confidences. With the Italian crisis [...]
- Global| May 25 2018
Step Back for German IFO Gauge
The IFO business climate gauge fell by 0.5% in May, marking two straight months of decline. However, the current conditions index continued to plow ahead as it has for many months signaling ongoing growth and expansion in the German [...]
- Global| May 24 2018
French Surveys Show Tilt to Weakness
The INSEE manufacturing survey shows a steady reading for industry climate in May. The index fell in March and again in April. And now, in May, it has stabilized at this lower level. Still, the trend shows a loss of momentum. The [...]
- Global| May 23 2018
EMU: PMIs Continue to Drop- Is Recovery Past Its Peak Pace?
The chart of the PMI values is very telling and disturbing. With this month’s drop, the tail off in the PMIs is quite clear and the run up now looks like it was a flash-in-the-pan. Manufacturing’s PMI certainly ran up to a peak and [...]
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