The economy watchers index is at odds with itself this month and recently. The current index rose to 41.9 in January from 39.7 in December, its third month-to-month improvement in a row. But the future index fell to 41.8 in January [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Feb 10 2020Japan's Economy Watchers Index Offers a Split Decision
- Global| Feb 07 2020
German IP Continues to Stumble And Fall
Germany's industrial production fell 3.5% in December. There are declines in December in consumer goods, capital goods and intermediate goods. Construction spending was lower in December. Manufacturing IP in December fell 2.9%. The [...]
- Global| Feb 06 2020
German Orders in December: No Good News Need Apply
Germany's orders fell yet again in December and even faster than in November. The drop – the severe drop- was not expected. And this is only December. Germany has yet to post results for the period when the coronavirus took hold in [...]
- Global| Feb 05 2020
Global Composite PMIs Show Broad-Based Improvement
Among the 23 PMI readings in January, only four are below 50 and only eight show month-to-month deceleration. (This count excludes the first three regions at the top where timely January readings are not available and December values [...]
- Global| Feb 04 2020
Euro Area PPI Is Up As Oil Prices Continue to Gain; Oil and the Coronavirus Are Important Factors in Setting This Trend
The gain in the PPI in December on rising oil prices will find oil much lower in January as the coronavirus struck globally and as Brent and WTI prices have fallen. As a result, the trend in this report are likely to be blunted in the [...]
- Global| Feb 03 2020
MFG PMIs Show Some Rebound in January; Beware: It Is a Pre-Virus Showing
Manufacturing PMIs show some bounce and lift in January as the average (unweighted average, excluding France and Germany) is up to 50.4, the first value above 50 since April 2019. Still, the ranking of this index is below its median [...]
- Global| Jan 31 2020
EMU GDP Disappoints in Q4 While the Virus Goes Viral
The preliminary GDP results are in for early EMU GDP reporters. The results are not good. I have presented the Q/Q results as compounded growth rates as they are usually presented in the U.S. Europeans tend to report the simple Q/Q [...]
- Global| Jan 30 2020
EU Commission Indexes Begin Upturn for EMU--Can It Last?
The table below excerpts from the full list of EMU members where only 6 of 18 reporting countries show declines in their EU Commission indexes in January (month-to-month) compared with 8 in December and 7 in November. The EMU index is [...]
- Global| Jan 29 2020
German and Other EMU Consumer Confidence Strengthens
Germany's consumer confidence is projected to strengthen in February by the GfK survey as the climate gauge rises to 9.9 from 9.7 in January. The 9.9 reading is its strongest since June 2019 when it stood at 10.1. The top reading on [...]
- Global| Jan 28 2020
U.K. Distributive Trades Survey Points to Weakness
The retail CBI survey has solid signaling power for U.K. retail sales The small table below extracts the percentile standing metrics from the large table below to feature their message. The message is clearly that current retailing [...]
- Global| Jan 27 2020
IFO Expectations Are Set Back in January
IFO expectations fell to -5.2 in January from -3.1 in December when presented in its diffusion format. The expectations diffusion reading has an 11.6 percentile standing on data back to 1991 and has an ‘equally weak’ 10.2 percentile [...]
- Global| Jan 24 2020
EMU PMI- Thin Gruel for Progress; Will the Coronavirus Trump the Outlook for 2020?
The flash composites show some improvement this month- but not much of it. The EMU is dead flat unchanged month-to-month. The German index is higher while the French composite is weaker. However, the U.K. composite swings to expansion [...]
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