SURVEYS → Federal Reserve Surveys and Indicators → FRB Chicago → Labor Market Indicators
The Labor Market Indicators data set introduced in September 2025 by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago were added to the SURVEYS and USECON databases. These data, updated twice monthly, are designed to provide a more frequent and predictive look at national employment trends. Forecast data include a layoffs and other separations rate, the hiring rate for unemployed workers, and the unemployment rate.
Chart: These December data were released prior to December BLS Employment Situation. At the time, the relative odds of a decrease in the unemployment rate, as predicted by this model, was 47% - with a 28% chance of no change – and 25% odds of an increase. Of the decreases, there was a 26.3% chance of a 0.1% decrease. The official unemployment rate released on January 9th decreased from 4.5% to 4.4%.



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