- Payroll employment rises by 315,000 workers.
- Monthly wage gain is slowest in four months.
- Unemployment rate moves up to 3.7%.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- New orders -1.0% in July following nine straight m/m rises; June revised down to +1.8%.
- Shipments decline 0.9%, led by a 1.9% drop in nondurable goods.
- Unfilled orders rise 0.7%, easing from June's 0.8%, while inventories increase a marginal 0.1%.
USA| Sep 01 2022U.S. Unemployment Claims Remain on Slight Downtrend
- Initial claims down 5,000 in week ended August 27; previous week revised down 6,000.
- Continued weeks claimed up 26,000 in the August 20 week.
- The insured unemployment rate remains in the record low range.
- USA| Sep 01 2022
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Holds Steady in August
- Composite index remains well below 2021 peak.
- New orders & employment improve, but production declines.
- Price index plunges.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Total July construction -0.4% m/m (+8.5% y/y); June and May revised up.
- Residential private construction drops 1.5% m/m (+14.1% y/y), the largest monthly decline since April '20, led by m/m drops of 4.0% in single-family building and 0.6% in multi-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction increases 0.4% m/m (3.1% y/y), up for the third straight month.
- Public sector construction rises 1.5% m/m (3.3% y/y), up for the sixth time in seven months, led by a 1.5% gain (3.3% y/y) in nonresidential public construction.
Global| Sep 01 2022Global Manufacturing Slows Further (S&P Global PMIs)
Among the 18 countries and regions surveyed in August, 13 of them worsened month-to-month. That’s a clear bias in terms of numbers of countries that saw manufacturing weaken in August. Among the exceptions were Indonesia, China, Russia, France, and Turkey.
Over three-months compared to six-months, once again there are 13 members of this group that show worsening. Over six-months compared to 12-months, there are 16 members that show worsening. Over 12-months compared to the average from 12-months ago, there are eleven members out of 18 that show worsening.
The median observation in August deteriorates only 0.2% from the month before. Over three-months, the median observation deteriorates by two points from the six-month average. Over six-months, even though there are more worsenings than improvements, there is a slight, 0.4%, improvement in the median observation compared to the 12-month average. And over 12 months, despite the lowest worsening count of all these horizons, there was a decline in the median of 1.7 points.
Queue rankings On balance, the worsening is gradual and ongoing, but it is bringing the manufacturing PMI levels down to much lower levels. If we look at the queue rankings over the last 4 ½ years, there are only four out of 18 members whose August observations rank above their median values over the last 4 ½ years. Those are Russia, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia. As for large economic areas, the euro area has a 32.1 percentile standing, the U.S. has a 22.6 percentile standing, the U.K. has a 3.8 percentile standing, Japan comes close to its median with the 49.1 percentile standing, and China has a 17-percentile standing.
PMI values since before Covid struck Half of the respondents in the table have higher manufacturing PMI standings than they did in February 2020 on the brink of COVID striking. However, the euro area, Germany, France, and the U.S. show increases that are improvements of barely one point or less over this span of 2 ½ years. The strongest gains from February 2020 are from Japan that’s up by 3.7 PMI points, and Russia that’s up by 3.5 points. After that, Vietnam is up by 2.2 points (based on its July reading), and Malaysia is up by 1.8 points. All-in-all conditions have not been very robust over the last 2 ½ years.
- USA| Sep 01 2022
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Ease During August
- Light truck purchases slip, but auto sales improve.
- Imports' share strengthens.
- Sales remain constrained as parts shortages limit production.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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