Gerald D. Cohen

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<p align="justify">Wholesale inventories increased 0.3% month-on-month (6.5% year-over-year) during November, following an upwardly revised 0.9% gain in October. The release of this data was delayed by the government shutdown.
</p><p align="justify">
Wholesale sales declined 0.6% during November (+4.0% y/y), the second consecutive monthly decline of this magnitude. October's reading was revised down from -0.2%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for just a 0.1% decrease.
</p><p align="justify">
The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio at the wholesale level rose to 1.29, the fourth consecutive monthly gain. Still, the I/S ratio remains well below the cycle peak of 1.38 reached in February 2016.
</p>
<p align="justify">The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's <b>USECON</b> database.
The expectations for sales are in the <b>AS1REPNA</b> database.</p>

<p><a href="/comment/190201n.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/190201n.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/190201o.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/190201o.png"></a></p>

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

  <thead>
    <tr>
      <th class="firstcol" scope="col" ><b>Wholesale Sector - NAICS
        Classification </b>(%)</th>
      <th scope="col" ><b>Nov</b></th>
      <th scope="col" ><b>Oct</b></th>
      <th scope="col" ><b>Sep</b></th>
      <th scope="col" ><b>Nov Y/Y</b></th>
      <th scope="col" ><b>2017</b></th>
      <th scope="col" ><b>2016</b></th>
      <th scope="col" ><b>2015</b></th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr class="odd">
      <td class="firstcol" >Inventories</td>
      <td  >0.3</td>
      <td  >0.9</td>
      <td  >0.7</td>
      <td  >6.5</td>
      <td  >3.6</td>
      <td  >2.2</td>
      <td  >1.3</td>
    </tr>
    <tr class="odd">
      <td class="firstcol" >Sales</td>
      <td  >-0.6</td>
      <td  >-0.6</td>
      <td  >0.1</td>
      <td  >4.0</td>
      <td  >7.4</td>
      <td  >-1.3</td>
      <td  >-4.9</td>
    </tr>
    <tr class="odd">
      <td class="firstcol" >I/S Ratio</td>
      <td  >1.29</td>
      <td  >1.28</td>
      <td  >1.27</td>
      <td  >1.26 (Nov '17)</td>
      <td  >1.30</td>
      <td  >1.35</td>
      <td  >1.33</td>
   </tr>
              </tbody>
            </table>
            </span>
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Wholesale inventories increased 0.3% month-on-month (6.5% year-over-year) during November, following an upwardly revised 0.9% gain in October. The release of this data was delayed by the government shutdown. Wholesale sales declined [...]

Wholesale Inventories Grow While Sales Decline

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<p><a href="/comment/190201h.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/190201h.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/190201i.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/190201i.png"></a></p>

<p align="justify">In a delayed release of November data, the value of construction put-in-place rose a greater than expected 0.8% month-on-month (3.4% year-on-year). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.3% gain. October's previously-reported decline was revised to a slight increase (0.1%), while September's reading was revised substantially lower. Third quarter construction spending is now 3.6% (annualized) below its second quarter level, down from -1.4%. Thus, construction-related components of GDP – private residential investment, nonresidential structures, and potentially even government spending – are likely to be revised down in the third quarter.
</p><p align="justify">
This release suggests a mixed result for the fourth quarter. Given the data we have in hand, private residential and nonresidential structures outside of oil drilling looks to be a drag on GDP growth, while public construction is on track to add to growth.
</p>
<p align="justify">The construction spending figures, some of which date back to
1946, are in Haver's <b>USECON</b> database. The expectations reading can be found
in the <b>AS1REPNA</b> database.</p>

<p><a href="/comment/190201j.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/190201j.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/190201k.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/190201k.png"></a></p>

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

  <thead>
    <tr>
      <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Construction Put in Place
        (SA, %)</th>
      <th scope="col" >Nov</th>
      <th scope="col" >Oct</th>
      <th scope="col" >Sep</th>
      <th scope="col" >Nov Y/Y</th>
      <th scope="col" >2017</th>
      <th scope="col" >2016</th>
      <th scope="col" >2015</th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td class="firstcol" >Total</td>
      <td  >0.8</td>
      <td  >0.1</td>
      <td  >-1.8</td>
      <td  >3.4</td>
      <td  >4.5</td>
      <td  >7.0</td>
      <td  >10.7</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
  <tbody>
    <tr class="odd">
      <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Private</td>
      <td  >1.3</td>
      <td  >-0.3</td>
      <td  >-1.6</td>
      <td  >2.3</td>
      <td  >7.1</td>
      <td  >9.2</td>
      <td  >12.9</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Residential</td>
      <td  >3.5</td>
      <td  >-1.1</td>
      <td  >-2.0</td>
      <td  >0.8</td>
      <td  >12.4</td>
      <td  >10.7</td>
      <td  >14.2</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
  <tbody>
    <tr class="odd">
      <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Nonresidential</td>
      <td  >-1.2</td>
      <td  >0.6</td>
      <td  >-1.1</td>
      <td  >4.2</td>
      <td  >1.3</td>
      <td  >7.7</td>
      <td  >11.5</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Public</td>
      <td  >-0.9</td>
      <td  >1.5</td>
      <td  >-2.5</td>
      <td  >7.0</td>
      <td  >-3.2</td>
      <td  >0.7</td>
      <td  >5.1</td>
         </tr>
	              </tbody>
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In a delayed release of November data, the value of construction put-in-place rose a greater than expected 0.8% month-on-month (3.4% year-on-year). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.3% gain. October's previously- [...]

U.S. Construction Spending Rises in November But Offset by September's Downward Revision

Tom Moeller

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      <p align="justify">The job market remains firm.
      Nonfarm payrolls increased 304,000 (1.9% y/y) during January, but December's
      gain was revised downward to 222,000 from 312,000 reported last month.
      November's increase was revised up slightly to 196,000 from 176,000. The
      January increase exceeded expectations for a 165,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
      Data back through January 2014 were revised. Average hourly earnings
      ticked 0.1% higher and fell short of expectations for a 0.3% rise. The
      gain followed an unrevised 0.4% December jump. The y/y increase eased to a
      3.2%, but still was nearly the strongest 12-month gain since April 2009.
      The unemployment rate increased to 4.0%, the highest level since June, up
      from November's low of 3.7%. Stability at 3.9% had been expected.</p>

      <p align="justify">The labor market data are contained in Haver's <b>USECON</b>
      database. Detailed figures are in the <b>EMPL</b> and <b>LABOR</b>
      databases. The expectations figures are in the <b>AS1REPNA</b> database.</p>

      <table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Employment: (SA, M/M
              Change, 000s)</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jan</th>
            <th scope="col" >Dec</th>
            <th scope="col" >Nov</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jan Y/Y</th>
            <th scope="col" >2018</th>
            <th scope="col" >2017</th>
            <th scope="col" >2016</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Payroll Employment</td>
            <td  >304</td>
            <td  >222</td>
            <td  >196</td>
            <td  >1.9%</td>
            <td  >1.7%</td>
            <td  >1.6%</td>
            <td  >1.8%</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Previous Estimate</td>
            <td  >--</td>
            <td  >312</td>
            <td  >176</td>
            <td  >--</td>
            <td  ></td>
            <td  >--</td>
            <td  >--</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
            <td  >13</td>
            <td  >20</td>
            <td  >27</td>
            <td  >2.1</td>
            <td  >2.0</td>
            <td  >0.7</td>
            <td  >0.1</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Construction</td>
            <td  >52</td>
            <td  >28</td>
            <td  >5</td>
            <td  >5.1</td>
            <td  >4.6</td>
            <td  >3.6</td>
            <td  >4.1</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Private Service-Producing</td>
            <td  >224</td>
            <td  >153</td>
            <td  >171</td>
            <td  >1.9</td>
            <td  >1.7</td>
            <td  >1.8</td>
            <td  >2.2</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Government</td>
            <td  >8</td>
            <td  >16</td>
            <td  >-4</td>
            <td  >0.6</td>
            <td  >0.5</td>
            <td  >0.6</td>
            <td  >0.9</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Average Weekly Hours - Private
              Sector</td>
            <td  >34.5</td>
            <td  >34.5</td>
            <td  >34.4</td>
            <td  >34.4</td>
            <td  >34.5</td>
            <td  >34.4</td>
            <td  >34.4</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Private Sector Average Hourly
              Earnings (%)</td>
            <td  >0.1</td>
            <td  >0.4</td>
            <td  >0.3</td>
            <td  >3.2</td>
            <td  >3.0</td>
            <td  >2.6</td>
            <td  >2.6</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
            <td  >4.0</td>
            <td  >3.9</td>
            <td  >3.7</td>
            <td  >4.1</td>
            <td  >3.9</td>
            <td  >4.4</td>
            <td  >4.9</td>
      </tr>
              </tbody>
            </table>
            </span>
</body></html>

The job market remains firm. Nonfarm payrolls increased 304,000 (1.9% y/y) during January, but December's gain was revised downward to 222,000 from 312,000 reported last month. November's increase was revised up slightly to 196,000 [...]

U.S. Employment Strengthens in January but Wage Growth Slips; Unemployment Rate Edges Higher

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

US tariff revenues nearly doubled in April

Even with expected tariff-induced increases in inflation, BCFF forecasters look for a more aggressive round of monetary easing

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

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Mortgage applications fell 10.0% (+18.4% y/y) in the week ending July 11, after rising 9.4% w/w (36.6% y/y) in the week ending July 4, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading broke the string of three consecutive w/w rises. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 11.8% (+13.7% y/y) in the July 11 week, following a rise of 9.4% (25.4% y/y) in the July 4 week. Applications for loan refinancing dropped 7.4% (+25.2% y/y) after rising 9.2% (55.8% y/y) in the July 4 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 5bps to 7.00% in the week ending July 11, from 6.95% in the week ending July 4; it was up from a low of 6.29% in the September 20 week but down from a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 12bps to 6.32% in the latest week from 6.20% in the July 4 week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the September 20 week. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loans rose 6bps to 6.94% in the July 11 week from 6.88% in the July 4 week; it was up from a low of 6.57% in the September 13 week. Meanwhile, the rate on a 5-year ARM edged down 4bps to 6.24% in the latest week from 6.28% in the July 4 week; it was above a low of 5.84% in the September 13 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 41.1% of total applications in the week ending July 11 up from 40.0% in the week ending July 4. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity dropped to 7.1% in the July 11 week from 7.7% in the July 4 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan, down for the fourth week in five, fell 2.8% (+3.0% y/y) to $375,500 in the July 11 week, following a decline of 1.3% w/w (+4.5% y/y) to $386,400 in the July 4 week. The average size of a purchase loan edged down 0.9% (+2.9% y/y) to $428,900 in the July 11 week, after declining 2.5% (+1.8% y/y) to $432,600 in the July 4 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage dropped 5.6% (+6.1% y/y) to $299,200 in the latest week, after rising 1.1% (18.8% y/y) to $317,100 in the July 4 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both purchase applications and refinancing loan applications fell in July 11 week.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose to 7.0%.
- Average loan size declines for the fourth time in five weeks.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped 10.0% in the Latest Week

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The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in June after rising 0.1% in May and increasing 0.2% in April. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 2.7% y/y increase in the headline CPI in June compared to 2.4% in May and remained below the 9.1% peak in June 2022. The CPI excluding food & energy increased 0.2% last month after a 0.1% uptick in May and a 0.2% April gain. A 0.3% rise had been expected. The 2.9% y/y June rise compared to 2.8% in May, still well below the 6.6% peak in September 2022.

Energy prices rose 0.9% (-0.8% y/y) last month after falling 1.0% in May. Gasoline prices strengthened 1.0% (-8.3% y/y) after falling 2.6% in May. Fuel oil prices rose 1.3% (-4.7% y/y) after rising 0.9% in April. Natural gas prices rose 0.5% (14.2% y/y) following a 1.0% decline, and electricity prices gained 1.0% (5.8% y/y) after rising 0.9% in May.

Food prices rose 0.3% in June (3.0% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Egg prices fell 7.4% (+27.3% y/y), the third straight month of sharp decline. Meat, poultry & fish prices rose 0.8% (+4.1% y/y) after easing 0.1%, while dairy product prices declined 0.3% (0.9% y/y) after easing 0.1% in May. Cereal & bakery product costs eased 0.2% (0.9% y/y) after a 1.1% increase while fruit & vegetable prices rose 0.9% (0.7% y/y), following a 0.3% gain. Nonalcoholic beverage prices strengthened 1.4% (4.4% y/y) in June after falling 0.3% in May.

Goods prices less food and energy rose 0.2 (0.7% y/y) in June after holding steady in May. Prices of used cars and trucks fell 0.7% (+2.8% y/y) last month, after falling 0.5% in May, while new vehicle costs weakened 0.3% (+0.2% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Apparel prices rose 0.4% in June (-0.5% y/y) and reversed the prior month’s 0.4% decline. Appliance prices surged 1.9% (0.8% y/y), after increasing 0.8%. Home furnishings prices jumped 1.0% (1.7% y/y) after rising 0.3%. Recreation	 product costs rose 0.8% (-0.8% y/y) in May, doubling the May increase. Education & communication product costs held steady last month (-3.3% y/y) after rising 0.1% in May. Medical care goods prices rose 0.1% (NSA, 0.2% y/y) after increasing 0.6% in May.

Services prices less energy moved up 0.3% (3.6% y/y) last month following a 0.2% May gain. Shelter prices rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) last month after two months of 0.3% increase as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.3% (4.2% y/y), the same as in May. The cost of lodging away from home declined 2.9% (-2.5% y/y), the fourth straight month of decline. Rents of primary residences gained 0.2% (3.8% y/y), the same as in May. Transportation service prices moved up 0.2% (3.4% y/y) after easing 0.2% as the cost of motor vehicle insurance edged up 0.1% (6.1% y/y) in June after strengthening 0.7% in May. Public transportation costs increased 0.4% (-2.7% y/y) after falling 2.5% during May. The cost of medical services increased 0.6% (3.4% y/y) after a 0.2% increase, and the cost of recreation services rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) after slipping 0.1% in May. Education & communication services prices rose 0.1% (1.1% y/y) for the second consecutive month.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

**The Economic Implications of Tariff Increases** from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found [here](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2025/07/economic-implications-of-tariff-increases/#wp--skip-link--target).

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- Monthly increase is highest in five months. Core gain moves up minimally.
- Energy costs post solid increase.
- Both core goods and core services prices move higher.

U.S. Consumer Price Index Strengthens in June

Sandy Batten

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The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions jumped nearly 22 points to 5.5 in July from -16.0 in June, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. A reading of -8.5 for July had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The unexpected positive reading in July indicated that business activity in New York State increased for the first month since February. The percentage of respondents reporting an increase in general business conditions in July rose to 32.4% from 16.9% in June while the percentage reporting a decrease fell to 26.9% from 32.9%. The July survey was conducted between July 2 and July 10.

The headline index just reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity. Haver Analytics calculates a composite index from the five major components, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. This calculated index increased to 54.7 in July, its highest reading since July 2022 and well above the critical 50 value that separates expansion from contraction, from 48.6 in June. The calculated index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each).

The July jump reflected meaningful increases in most component indexes. The new orders index rose to 2.0 from -14.2. The shipments index increased to 11.5 from -7.2. Unfilled orders edged up to -6.4 from -8.3. Delivery times lengthened to 8.3, the highest reading since July 2022 and possibly an early indication that trade policy uncertainty is beginning to disrupt some supply chains, from 1.8 in June. Moreover, the relatively new supply availability index fell deeper into negative territory at -11.0 versus -8.1 in June. Inventories rose markedly to 15.6 in July, the highest reading since November 2022, from 0.9 in June.

On the labor front, the index for the number of employees rose five points to 9.2, and the average workweek index rose to 4.2, the first positive reading in eight months. This marks the first time that both indexes have been positive since 2022, suggesting that both employment and hours worked increased in July. Sixteen percent of respondents reported an increase in employment, the highest since March 2023, versus 14.6% in June while only 6.9% reported a decline in employment, the lowest since June 2022, down from 9.9% in June.

The prices paid index rose nine points to 56.0, pointing to a pickup in input price increases, while the prices received index held steady at 25.7, suggesting that selling price increases remained moderate though elevated relative to normal pre-pandemic levels. Slightly more than 29% of respondents reported an increase in prices received in July, the same as in June.

Firms remained fairly optimistic about the outlook. The index for future general business conditions edged up to 24.1 from 21.2 in June, suggesting that, on the whole, businesses expect activity to increase in the months ahead. New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and supply availability is expected to be little changed. Capital spending plans jumped markedly to 9.2 in July from -7.3 in June and -6.7 in May.

The headline index reflects the answer to only one question concerning general business conditions and is not calculated from the components. The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease with zero separating expansion from contraction.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- The first positive reading for the index since February.
- The July jump reflected widespread increases across components.
- Evidence of some nascent supply-chain problems.
- Outlook six months ahead continues to brighten.

FRBNY Empire State Manufacturing Index Jumped 22 points in July

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades held at an average $3.25 per gallon (-10.0% y/y) last week after falling from $3.29 in the last week of June. Prices remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Their all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel improved to $3.76 per gallon (-1.8% y/y) in the week of July 14 after falling to $3.74 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased to $67.93 per barrel (-18.1% y/y) in the week ended July 11. The decline followed the prior week’s easing to $66.25 per barrel, but prices remained above a $59.04 low in the second week of May 2025. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $66.98 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude rose to $71.77 per barrel (-17.3% y/y) in the week of July 11 after falling to $69.61 in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in June 2022. The price was $70.96 yesterday.

Natural gas prices eased last week to an average $3.17/mmbtu (+40.3% y/y) in the week ended July 11, after falling to an average $3.19/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $3.21 per mmbtu.

Gasoline demand declined 1.0% y/y in the four weeks ending July 4 following a 0.1% y/y easing in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 1.6% y/y in the four weeks ending July 4 after a 1.1% y/y decline in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 1.1% y/y in the four weeks ending July 4 after a 1.6% y/y gain in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories eased 0.1% y/y in the week ending July 4 after a 0.2% y/y gain in the prior week. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 20.5% y/y in the week of July 4, after a 20.9% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 1.3% y/y in the week of July 4 after a 0.1% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell to 25.0 days in the week of July 4 from 25.2 days in the prior week. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8, 2024. The supply of crude oil rose to 25.1 days in the week of July 4 from 24.6 days in the prior week, and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices stabilize.
- Crude oil prices increase slightly.
- Natural gas prices ease.


U.S. Energy Prices Remain Mixed in Latest Week

Robert Brusca

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Output jumped in the European Monetary Union in May. The main gain followed a 2.2% drop in April that was preceded by a 1.8% increase in March. There's been some turbulence in output over the last few months with April showing declines for all the major sector components.

Moving beyond monthly data, the sequential run of growth rates from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months shows that total industrial production is on an accelerating path from 3.8% over 12 months, to over 5% over six months as well as over three months. Manufacturing alone shows a 12-month 3.6% growth rate, rising to 4.7% over six months and to 5.8% over three months.

**Sectors**
Sectors show a trend toward acceleration in consumer goods production where a 10.3% growth rate over 12 months progresses to 20.1% over six months and only backs off to 18.5% over three months. Splitting consumer goods output into durables and nondurables, we find less strength among durables with flat performance over 12 months, a 3.7% annual rate decline over six months, and a 4.3% annual rate increase over three months. However, for nondurables the growth rate surges from 11.6% over 12 months to 23.1% over six months and stays over 20% over three months. Intermediate goods’ trend is the fly in the ointment for industrial production, as output falls by 1.7% over 12 months, falls at a 2% pace over six months, and then falls at a 4.9% annual rate over three months. That setback is surprising given the growth rate and other categories. Capital goods show a strong accelerating phase from 4.1% over 12 months to a 5% growth rate over six months to 15.5% over three months.

**Countries**
Looking across specific countries, the table shows 13 monetary union members in May - Seven of them show output contracting. That's the same number contracting as in April although in March only four showed industrial output contracting month to month.

The sequential growth rates calculated over broader periods show eight countries with output contracting over three months, but only five with output contracting over six months; six countries report lower output over 12 months – a much longer span of time.

**Mixed trends within the community**
The sector data for all of the Monetary Union are relatively upbeat, but the country level data show a lot more mixed performance across individual country units; only Ireland, Finland, and Germany show output increases over three months, six months and 12 months. Conversely, Greece, France, and Belgium show output declines over three months, six months and 12 months.

The quarter-to-date (QTD), with two months of data in hand, is showing six countries with output declining on QTD-to-date basis. But for the EMU region as a whole, output is advancing at a 1.6% annual rate. Manufacturing output is rising at a stronger 1.9% annualized pace – with real strength in capital goods output.

**Ranking performance**
The far right-hand column ranks current growth rates on data back to 2007. Seven of thirteen countries rank below 50% which is their median growth rate for the period. Finland, Ireland, and Portugal are quite strong; Malta and German have rankings solidly above their respective 50th percentiles. The Netherlands, Italy, France, and Austria have rankings in their 40th percentiles, lagging their median pace but in a 40% to 50% range. Belgium emerges as the weakest country on a ranking basis, standing only in its lower 8.7 percentile and it is riding a losing streak to boot.

**Overall EMU IP rankings are solid-two sectors lag**
Overall EMU rankings show total output with a 66.1 (top one-third) percentile ranking with manufacturing at 59.6 percentile. Consumer nondurables are the strongest sector at a 98.2 percentile ranking. Both consumer durables and intermediate goods have lower standings: 40.8% for consumer durables and 37.6 percentile for intermediate goods. Both of those sectors are lagging and also carrying weak momentum. In contrast, capital good output is surging and its ranking at 47.7% is mostly below its median rank (at 50%).

**Stimulus diverted?**
NATO has signed on for more miliary spending and this has been expected to underpin growth in Europe. But some of that stimulus will be redirected in just-announced deal in which the U.S. will manufacture arms and NATO would pay for them to help Ukraine. It is unclear how much stimulus that we had expected for Europe might be redirected to the U.S. by this new deal.

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Europe

EMU IP and Sectors Recover

Economy in Brief: February 2019

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