Global| Feb 01 2019U.S. Employment Strengthens in January but Wage Growth Slips; Unemployment Rate Edges Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job market remains firm. Nonfarm payrolls increased 304,000 (1.9% y/y) during January, but December's gain was revised downward to 222,000 from 312,000 reported last month. November's increase was revised up slightly to 196,000 [...]
The job market remains firm. Nonfarm payrolls increased 304,000 (1.9% y/y) during January, but December's gain was revised downward to 222,000 from 312,000 reported last month. November's increase was revised up slightly to 196,000 from 176,000. The January increase exceeded expectations for a 165,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Data back through January 2014 were revised. Average hourly earnings ticked 0.1% higher and fell short of expectations for a 0.3% rise. The gain followed an unrevised 0.4% December jump. The y/y increase eased to a 3.2%, but still was nearly the strongest 12-month gain since April 2009. The unemployment rate increased to 4.0%, the highest level since June, up from November's low of 3.7%. Stability at 3.9% had been expected.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 304 | 222 | 196 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 312 | 176 | -- | -- | -- | |
| Manufacturing | 13 | 20 | 27 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Construction | 52 | 28 | 5 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Private Service-Producing | 224 | 153 | 171 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Government | 8 | 16 | -4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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