Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040701a.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for jobless insurance were about stable last week at 351,000. The prior week&#39;s level was revised up slightly. Consensus expectations had been for 344,000 claims.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims rose to 347,000 (-17.2% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 13,000 following a 61,000 increase the prior week which was revised down slightly.
The insured rate of unemployment rose slightly to 2.4% from the prior week that was revised down.
&quot;Wage and Employer Changes Over the Life Cycle&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland can be found <a href="http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/Com2004/04-15.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> <a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM"> Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">6/26/04</th>
<th scope="col">6/19/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp; 351</td>
<td>350</td>
<td>-17.8%</td>
<td>403</td>
<td>404</td>
<td>406</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp; --</td>
<td>2,966</td>
<td>-19.6%</td>
<td>3,533</td>
<td>3,573</td>
<td>3,023</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
ISM Factory Index Eased 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> July 1, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040701d.jpg" width="353">
The Institute of Supply Management reported that the Purchasing Managers&#146; Composite Index (PMI) for June fell to 61.1 from 62.8 in May. The decline about matched Consensus expectations for a decline to 61.5.
During the last twenty years there has been a 71% correlation between the level of the Composite Index and the three month growth in factory sector industrial production.
Each of the component series fell m/m with the exception of inventories which broached the breakeven line of 50 for the first month since January 2000. New orders fell three points to the lowest level in nearly a year. New export orders similarly fell to the lowest level since February. Employment eased just moderately, down 2.2 points to 59.7.
The separate index of prices paid fell for the second month from an April high.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF02/@EF02.HTM"> ISM Manufacturing Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col"> June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">June &#39;03</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Composite Index</td>
<td>61.1</td>
<td>62.8</td>
<td>50.4</td>
<td>53.3</td>
<td>52.4</td>
<td>43.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; New Orders Index</td>
<td>60.0</td>
<td>62.8</td>
<td>52.9</td>
<td>58.1</td>
<td>56.6</td>
<td>46.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index (NSA)</td>
<td>81.0</td>
<td>86.0</td>
<td>56.5</td>
<td>59.6</td>
<td>57.6</td>
<td>42.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Construction Spending Up 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> July 1, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040701c.jpg" width="353">
The total value of construction put in place rose 0.3% in May following a little revised 1.2% surge in April. Past figures were revised, mostly due to additional gains last year in residential construction. A 0.7% rise in May had been the Consensus expectation.
Private residential building activity rose another 0.8% following a 1.2% jump in April and a 1.1% March gain. Single family building surged 1.3% (23.7% y/y) following 1.9% and 1.6% gains the prior two months.
Nonresidential building slipped 0.4% following three months of gain. Spending on health care facilities rose 0.5% (9.9% y/y) following huge gains during the prior three months.
Public construction fell 0.2% led by a second monthly decline in the power category (+36.5% y/y). Spending on highways &amp; streets (nearly one third of the value of public construction spending) edged up 0.1% (15.2% y/y).
These more detailed categories represent the Census Bureau&#146;s reclassification of construction activity into end-use groups. Finer detail is available for many of the categories; for instance, commercial construction is shown for Automotive sales and parking facilities, drugstores, building supply stores, and both commercial warehouses and mini-storage facilities. Note that start dates vary for some seasonally adjusted line items in 2000 and 2002 and that constant-dollar data are no longer computed.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E907/@E90701/@E90701.HTM"> Construction Put-in-place</a></th>
<th scope="col"> May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Private</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Residential</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>15.3%</td>
<td>13.1%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonresidential</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-5.5%</td>
<td>-13.0%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Public</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Initial claims for jobless insurance were about stable last week at 351,000. The prior week's level was revised up slightly. Consensus expectations had been for 344,000 claims. The 4-week moving average of initial claims rose to [...]

Initial Claims Unemployment Insurance Stable

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

US tariff revenues nearly doubled in April

Even with expected tariff-induced increases in inflation, BCFF forecasters look for a more aggressive round of monetary easing

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

Andrew Cates

**Geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainty** 
Geopolitical tensions have risen sharply following the recent escalation of instability in the Middle East. As shown in Chart 1, the Caldara-Iacoviello Global Geopolitical Risk Index has surged to its highest level in over a year, reflecting mounting fears of broader regional conflict and potential disruption to critical global energy supply routes. In contrast, the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index has eased in recent weeks, reflecting a temporary de-escalation in tariff rhetoric and signs of diplomatic engagement with key trading partners. This divergence underscores the shifting risk landscape: while the trade policy narrative has stabilised somewhat, geopolitical volatility has returned as a dominant force, complicating the outlook for global coordination, capital flows, and supply chain resilience.

250618Z1.jpg

**Oil process and global growth surprises** 
The most obvious and immediate channel for these shocks has been oil. As shown in Chart 2, the global oil price has risen sharply in recent days, with the rebound leading a broader repricing of growth and inflation risks. The oil price in chart 2 below with a seven-week lead and has lately been tightly correlated with the inverted Citigroup global growth surprise Index. Notably, the correlation remains strongly negative, indicating that rising energy costs could sap global economic momentum.

250618Z2.jpg

**Global shipping costs** 
Freight rates have also surged in response to the Middle East conflict. Chart 3 shows the Baltic Dry Index and the Capesize Index, both of which have jumped materially in recent days. These indices, which capture the cost of transporting bulk goods such as metals, grains, and energy, are sensitive to perceived risk in major shipping lanes—including the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. As insurance premia rise and some routes are avoided altogether, freight costs are climbing.

250618Z3.jpg

**Global oil reserves**
The strategic significance of the Middle East—particularly Iran—can be seen clearly in chart 4. Iran specifically accounts for over 9% of global proven oil reserves, and the broader Middle East (excluding Iran) holds nearly 40%. That means nearly half of the world’s known oil reserves sit in one of the most geopolitically volatile regions on the planet.

250618Z4.jpg

**Energy costs and economic growth** 
The role of energy as a key driver of economic growth is arguably often underappreciated. However, its influence over economic performance is evident in the chart below. High real energy prices tend to discourage energy consumption, which in turn can suppress per capita GDP growth—unsurprising given energy’s central role in virtually all forms of economic activity, from manufacturing and transportation to household consumption. This dynamic has been particularly pronounced in the Euro area. Major economies such as Germany, France, and Italy have experienced sharp increases in real energy prices, accompanied by relatively subdued per capita GDP growth. In Germany’s case, this has been exacerbated by the rapid shift away from nuclear and Russian gas toward renewables—a transition that, while essential for long-term sustainability, has introduced near-term supply bottlenecks and cost volatility. More broadly, these energy price spikes are partly attributable to supply-side disruptions, many of which stem from geopolitical tensions and instability.

250618Z5.jpg

**Natural capital** 
Beneath the surface of these immediate geopolitical shocks lies a deeper, slower-moving erosion: the decline of natural capital. As Chart 6 shows, renewable natural capital per capita has been falling steadily for over two decades, while non-renewable natural capital has stagnated. In contrast, produced capital has surged, and human capital has only modestly increased. This imbalance reflects a global economy that has continued to accumulate physical and financial assets while depleting its ecological foundation. The result is a structurally less resilient growth model, more exposed to shocks like climate volatility, resource scarcity, and geopolitical conflict over critical inputs like water, minerals, and land.

250618Z6.jpg

Financial markets have been jolted over the past week by a sharp escalation in geopolitical risk. The sudden intensification of hostilities between Israel and Iran—marked by missile strikes and retaliatory air operations—has reignited fears of a broader regional conflict with global consequences. This flare-up has driven a visible spike in geopolitical risk indicators (Chart 1), unsettling investor sentiment at a moment when markets were still digesting the implications of US protectionist trade policies. As tensions mount, the economic shockwaves have been rippling outward: oil prices have rebounded sharply (Chart 2), global shipping costs have climbed sharply along key maritime routes (Chart 3), and capital markets are once again grappling with an unpredictable macro landscape. Iran’s strategic importance—both as a holder of nearly 10% of global oil reserves and as a key player in energy shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz—underscores the vulnerability of global energy security (Chart 4). But the implications are not just immediate. Over the medium term, higher real energy prices have already been weighing on living standards and growth outcomes across many advanced economies (Chart 5), with the data pointing to a clear inverse relationship between real energy costs and gains in per capita GDP. Compounding this is the slow, structural erosion of natural capital—soils, forests, water systems—which continues to undermine long-run economic resilience and productive potential (Chart 6).

Charts of the Week: Conflict, Energy and Constraints

250618F12.jpg

250618G12.jpg

Total housing starts weakened 9.8% (-4.6% y/y) during May to 1.256 million units (SAAR) after rising 2.7% to 1.392 million in April, revised from 1.361 million and falling 9.1% to 1.355 million in March, revised from 1.339 million, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Total starts in May were 31.0% below their peak of 1.820 million units reached in April 2022, and at their lowest level in five years. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.36 million starts in May.

Single-family starts edged 0.4% higher (-7.3% y/y) to 924,000 after falling 3.0% to 920,000 in April, revised from 927,000, and declining 13.7% to a minimally revised 948,000 in March. Multi-family starts dropped 29.7% (+4.1% y/y) to 332,000, after rising 16.0% to 472,000 in April, and increasing 3.8% to 407,000 in March. It was their lowest level since November.

Starts declined in May in three of the four major regions of the country. Starts fell 40.0% (+6.1% y/y) in the Northeast to 105,000, following an 18.2% April increase. In the South, starts weakened 10.5% (-7.2% y/y) to 693,000 after rising 11.2% in April. Starts in the Midwest declined 10.2% (+26.0% y/y) to 184,000 after declining 8.1% in April. Countering these declines, starts in the West increased 15.1% (-15.4% y/y) to 274,000 after falling 17.4% in April.

Building permits declined 2.0% (-1.0% y/y) last month to 1.393 million after falling 4.0% to 1.422 million in April, revised from 1.412 million. Single-family permits fell 2.7% (-6.4% y/y) in May to 898,000 after weakening 5.0% in April. Multi-family permits eased 0.8% (+10.5% y/y) after declining 2.0% in April. Building permits fell 8.8% (+3.3% y/y) in the Northeast and were off 5.2% (-3.1% y/y) in the West. In the South, building permits declined 2.5% (-4.9% y/y), but in the Midwest building permit increased 9.8% (16.4% y/y).

The housing starts and building permits figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250618H12.jpg

250618I12.jpg

- Single-family starts edge higher; multi-family drops to six-month low.
- Starts decline in most of the country.
- Building permits move down as well, led by single-family weakness.

U.S. Housing Starts Slump in May as Multi-Family Plummets

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

250618A1.jpg

250618B1.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 245,000 in the week ending June 14, a decrease of 5,000 from 250,000 in the week ending June 7, revised up from 248,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 245,000. These data are seasonally adjusted by the Department of Labor. The 4-week moving average was 245,500, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week’s average of 240,750, revised up from 240,250. It also is the highest level for this average since August 19, 2023, when it was 246,000.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – in the week ended June 7 was 1.945 million, down 6,000 from 1.951 million in the prior week, revised from 1.956 million. The 4-week moving average was 1.926 million, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week’s average of 1.913 million. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021, when it was 2.004 million.

The insured unemployment rate for the week ending June 7, that is, the number of unemployment beneficiaries as a % of covered employment, was unchanged at 1.3% from the prior week.

Economic conditions vary widely across states and territories. In the week ended May 31, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.30%), California (2.20%), Massachusetts and Washington (both 2.10%), and Rhode Island (2.00%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.30%), Florida (0.40%), and Alabama, Iowa, North Carolina and Virginia (all at 0.50%). Rates in other notable states include Illinois and New York (both 1.60%), Pennsylvania (1.50%) and Texas (1.20%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250618C1.jpg

250618D1.jpg

- Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased in the week ended June 14.
- Total beneficiaries decreased by 6,000 in the June 7 week.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.3%.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Eased in Latest Week

250618A8.jpg

250618B8.jpg

Mortgage applications declined 2.6% (+17.9% y/y) in the week ending June 13, after gaining 12.5% (22.1% y/y) in the week ending June 6, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 3.0% (+13.6% y/y) in the June 13 week after the rebound of 10.3% (18.9% y/y) in the June 6 week. Applications for loan refinancing fell 2.1% (+25.3% y/y) in the latest week after surging 15.6% (27.5% y/y) in the June 6 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 9bps to 7.03% in the week ending June 13 from 7.12% in the week ending June 6; The recent low was 6.29% in the September 20 week, while the peak of 8.12% was reached in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages eased 2bps to 6.31% in the week ending June 13 from 6.33% in the June 6 week; a low of 5.60% was reached in the September 20 week, while the high of 7.44% was reached in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans declined 12bps to 6.99% in the latest week from 7.11% in the June 6 week; the low of 6.57% was reached in the September 13 week and the high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on a 5-year ARM eased 3bps to 6.31% in the week ending June 13 from 6.34% in the June 6 week; the low of 5.84% was in the September 13 week and the high of 7.31% was in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 37.3% of total applications in the week of June 13 from 36.7% in the week ending June 6. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity dropped to 7.1% in the June 13 week from 7.2% in the June 6 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan eased 0.9% (+2.1% y/y) to $380,200 in the June 13 week, after a rise of 0.4% (2.8% y/y) to $383,700 in the June 6 week. The average size of a purchase loan declined by 0.7% (+2.0% y/y) to $439,000 in the June 13 week, after a rise of 0.8% (3.1% y/y) to $441,900 in the June 6 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage eased 0.6% (+6.1% y/y) to $281,600 in the June 13 week after a rise of 2.0% (4.5% y/y) to $283,400 in the June 6 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase and refinancing loan applications fell.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans fell to 7.03%.
- Average loan size eased.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline in the June 13 Week

Robert Brusca

250618E.jpg

Inflation in the United Kingdom measured by the CPI-H measure rose by 0.1% in May as the core excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco also decelerated by increasing 0.1% on the month. These slower May increases follow accelerated increases in April for both the headline and core and more modest increases in March. The sequential growth rates in the headline CPI-H show a gain of 4% over 12 months, a rise at a 4.3% annual rate over 6 months, and a 3.4% annual rate rise over 3 months. The core for the CPI-H shows a 4.2% increase over 12 months, a 4.1% annual rate increase over 6 months and another slight deceleration to 3.6% at an annual rate over 3 months. These data for the headline and the core both show that U.K. inflation has plateaued and begun to edge lower; however, the deceleration is quite slight for both the headline and for the core measures.

Inflation diffusion that measures the breadth of inflation shows a reading of 54.5% over both 12 months and 6 months, with 3-month diffusion much lower at 36.4%. Diffusion readings of 50% show inflation accelerating and decelerating with equal tendencies from period-to-period. Diffusion above 50% shows more accelerating inflation while diffusion below 50% finds more deceleration for inflation. Diffusion readings show that for 3-months compared to 6-months diffusion is significantly lower but that diffusion over 6 months (compared to 12-months) and for 12-months (compared to 12-months ago) is slightly accelerating.

The HICP measure parallels the results for the headline CPI-H with a slight inflation bulge over 6 months and significant slowing of inflation over 3 months. The agreement across the headline, and core CPI-H measures compared to the HICP is reassuring that these trends are true and not simply mercurial or the results of a particular inflation weighting scheme (since CPI-H and HICP use different weights).

Meanwhile unemployment in the U.K. has risen only slightly over the past 12 to 24 months. The recent U.K. monthly GDP reading showed a sharp slowing, but year-over-year growth is still positive headline.

The sequential chart that depicts the growth rates sequentially for timeseries of 3-month, 6-month and 12-month inflation (above) shows that part from a one month slice of those rates (which is what the table provides) the timeseries reveal that the tendency for inflation peaked across these three frequencies back in January and has since been reduced to its lowest pace since October 2024 for both 6-month and 12-month CPI-H core inflation. For the 3-month version, inflation at 3.6% is the slowest since January 2024. Three-month core inflation has slowed without increasing for four months in a row as has 12-month core inflation.

250618.jpg

Inflation in the United Kingdom is still broadly overshooting its 2% target. But the economy has slowed, and the labor market is softening, both signs that inflation pressures - in all likelihood - are not accumulating. Slack conditions usually create more upward price pressures. And we see downward pressures are in train. Still, U.K. headline inflation is at 4% and the core is at 4.2% over 12 months. The best performing statistic is over 3 months, a less trustable reading and that horizon only has the headline at 3.4% and the core at 3.6%. These may still be rates that are too high to give the BOE true comfort about hitting its target, but these nonetheless are signs of inflation progress underway. It may still not be enough to prompt rate cutting but rate cutting may now seem a more viable option in the months ahead. However, the months ahead are a fog for forecasters because of international tariff disputes, growth uncertainties, warfare, the risk to oil prices and changing geopolitical defense burdens that a spurring economic activity ahead faster in Europe, especially in Germany.

United Kingdom

U.K. Inflation Moderates

Economy in Brief: July 2004

Jump to:

Initial Claims Unemployment Insurance Stable