Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041112b.jpg" width="353">
US retail sales rose an expected 0.2% (7.6% y/y) last month, the gain held back by lower auto sales. September sales were revised up slightly. During the last twenty years there has been a 60% correlation between the y/y change in retail sales and the change in payroll employment.
Motor vehicle &amp; parts dealers sales fell 2.2% after a 4.3% jump in September as unit sales of light vehicles fell 3.1% m/m.
Sales excluding motor vehicles surged 0.9%, nearly double the Consensus expectation, following an upwardly revised 0.8% jump in September.
Discretionary spending was led by a 3.0% (6.7% y/y) surge in clothing &amp; accessory store sales on top of a 1.0% September increase.Sales at general merchandise stores added 0.9% (7.4% y/y) to the 1.3% September spike but sales of furniture/home furnishings &amp; electronics/appliances rose just 0.1% (4.1% y/y) which left sales down slightly over the last three months. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041112a.jpg" width="353">
Sales at gasoline service stations surged 4.3% (23.8% y/y) as the retail price of gasoline rose 6.9% m/m to $2.00/gallon. Nonauto retail sales less gasoline rose 0.5% (6.9% y/y).
Building materials, garden equipment &amp; supply dealers&#39; sales slid 1.1% (9.5% y/y) following a like gain in September.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM"> Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Recovered Further 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 12, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041112c.jpg" width="353">
The University of Michigan&#39;s mid-month November consumer sentiment reading of 95.5 rose 4.1% m/m from October, adding to the improvement during October&#39;s second half. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 93.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.
The consumer expectations index jumped 5.8% m/m (0.7% y/y) while the current economic conditions index rose 2.1% (3.6% y/y).
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
&quot;Consumer Sentiment and the Media&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2004/el2004-29.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM"> University of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col"> Oct</th>
<th scope="col"> Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>91.7</td>
<td>94.2</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>87.6</td>
<td>89.6</td>
<td>89.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Current Conditions</td>
<td>104.0</td>
<td>103.7</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>97.2</td>
<td>97.5</td>
<td>100.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Consumer Expectations</td>
<td>83.8</td>
<td>88.0</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>81.4</td>
<td>84.6</td>
<td>82.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

US retail sales rose an expected 0.2% (7.6% y/y) last month, the gain held back by lower auto sales. September sales were revised up slightly. During the last twenty years there has been a 60% correlation between the y/y change in [...]

U.S. Retail Sales Gain

Carol Stone, CBE

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041111a.jpg" width="353">
German economic growth slowed in Q3 to almost flat. At &#128;503.15 billion, GDP was up just 0.1% from Q2. Both Q2 and Q1 had 0.4% gains. These stronger periods helped to maintain the year-on-year advance at 1.3%, down just a bit from Q2&#39;s 1.4%. The German Federal Statistical Office did not report any detail, but stated in their press release that better domestic demand in Q3 was able to offset a decline in exports to keep growth even slightly positive. Components and other details will be published on November 23.The same combination held in Spain. In what is evidently a new practice, the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (&quot;INE&quot;) today published an &quot;anticipated&quot; growth report, citing the total GDP growth for Q3 relative to Q2 and to the year-ago period. A more &quot;dynamic domestic sector&quot; supported growth of 0.6% in the latest quarter, while external demand was more negative than before. The year-on-year pace was 2.6%. The Spanish economy is thus maintaining a robust growth pace compared with other European countries. The details of the Spanish national accounts will be reported on November 24. The new &quot;anticipated&quot; percentage change series have already been added to Haver&#39;s Spain database in the national accounts section.The Netherlands, in contrast, experienced weaker domestic demand. Private consumption and private investment both fell in Q3. But stronger exports generated positive GDP growth of 0.2%, a turnaround from the marginal 0.1% decline in Q2. The yearly pace is 1.4%, slightly firmer than in the two prior quarters and the best stretch of growth since early 2001.Yesterday, we described here how the reunified Germany seems to be progressing more slowly than the former Soviet-Bloc nations to its east. It will be some weeks before those countries issue their Q3 GDP data. But today&#39;s report for Germany is disappointing after four quarters of fairly good gains and indicates that the country&#39;s economy is unable to keep up a steady trend. Stay tuned for more on this story. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">GDP % Changes</th>
<th scope="col">3 Qtr 2004</th>
<th scope="col">2 Qtr 2004</th>
<th scope="col">1 Qtr 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Year/ Year</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Germany</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>1.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>2.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Netherlands</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>-1.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Domestic Demand</td>
<td>-0.6E</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>1.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

German economic growth slowed in Q3 to almost flat. At 503.15 billion, GDP was up just 0.1% from Q2. Both Q2 and Q1 had 0.4% gains. These stronger periods helped to maintain the year-on-year advance at 1.3%, down just a bit from Q2's [...]

German Growth Slows in Q3; Netherlands and Spain See Improvement

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041111c.jpg" width="353">
New home price appreciation across the US varies widely; by what is measured and by region.
The average price of a new home rose 8.4% through 3Q, a slowdown from the peak rate of appreciation of 13.7%. Median prices through 3Q rose 9.7%, down from a 15.4% peak in 1Q04.
Adjusted for quality improvements, the Census Bureau estimates that new home prices rose a lesser 6.4% through 3Q.
Older existing single family home prices rose a median 7.7% y/y through 3Q. That, however, reflects a 10.6% rise through 1Q04 in improvements (+14.2%) and repairs (2.3%).
Location, Location, Location: Home price appreciation in the Western region of the US during 2003 was roughly triple that in the Midwest, a comparison driven at least in part by 0.8% growth in employment in the West (2.5% in &#39;04) versus 0.1% growth in the Midwest (0.9% in &#39;04).
Are Home Prices the Next &quot;Bubble&quot;? from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/04v10n2/mccarthy/mccarthy.html">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> New Single Family Home Prices</th>
<th scope="col"> 1 Year Chg.</th>
<th scope="col"> 2 Year Chg. (AR)</th>
<th scope="col">5 Year Chg. (AR)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">US (Average)</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>11.0%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Quality Adjusted</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;By Region Thru 2003:</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>8.9%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>7.8%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

New home price appreciation across the US varies widely; by what is measured and by region. The average price of a new home rose 8.4% through 3Q, a slowdown from the peak rate of appreciation of 13.7%. Median prices through 3Q rose [...]

Home Price Appreciation Varies

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041110e.jpg" width="353">
Last night was the 15th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Yesterday&#39;s (November 9) Wall Street Journal included a major article arguing that the resulting reunification of Germany had not brought the anticipated surge of economic benefits to that nation, but that other Central and Eastern European countries had done better.
Some recent measures of economic activity tend to bear this out, although the evidence is not clear. Most simply, data histories are short for many of these nations, rendering exact comparisons virtually impossible. Tomorrow, November 11, Germany will report its 3rd quarter GDP and the &quot;newer&quot; nations will come some weeks from now. Through the second quarter, it was certainly the case that over recent years, these other countries -- the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, and so on -- have had faster growth rates than Germany; we can comment more tomorrow on this development.
Today, though, we have employment data through September for Slovakia, so we can make some limited comparisons about job growth. Data for &quot;industry&quot;, which includes manufacturing, mining and utilities, extend back to 2000. For some other categories of business, they begin in 2001. Over the last year, &quot;industry&quot; jobs have grown at about a 1-1/4% pace. Total &quot;registered employment&quot;, encompassing &quot;industry&quot; and private services, is expanding at about 1-1/2%. In Germany, jobs in the &quot;total economy&quot; are increasing, but only at about 0.2% in the second and third quarters over respective year-ago periods. Jobs in Germany&#39;s industrial sector, &quot;Industry excluding Construction&quot;, have been declining noticeably, through the 2nd quarter by 2.2% from a year ago.
These partial data indicate that Slovakia has a more vigorous economy at present than Germany. But this is not the whole story. As seen in the table below, there was a notable slump in total jobs in Slovakia during 2002 and 2003 which was more severe than in Germany. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041110f.jpg" width="353"> A similar pattern is evident in neighboring Poland, a country held up in the Wall Street Journal as the more vigorous counter-example to Germany&#39;s unexpected post-Unification slowness. Through the second quarter, total employment in Poland is barely increasing from year-earlier levels; however, private sector jobs have been advancing at about a 2.5% pace. This is quite favorable, but it also follows a deep decline in the private sector during 2002 and most of 2003.
These jobs data suggest that economic progress in the recently freed Soviet bloc is occurring, but in fits and starts. Such swings are hardly surprising as those nations work to restructure their economic systems and their incentive structures. No one said this would be easy.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Millions</th>
<th scope="col">Sept 2004</th>
<th scope="col">2nd Qtr 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Year/Year</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Slovakia: Total </td>
<td>1.248</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>-4.3</td>
<td>-1.3</td>
<td>NA</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;Industry&quot; </td>
<td>0.571</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>1.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Poland: Total</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>13.682</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-1.2</td>
<td>-3.0</td>
<td>-2.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Private Sector</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>9.458</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>-3.7</td>
<td>2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Germany: Total</td>
<td>38.543*</td>
<td>38.338</td>
<td>0.3*</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;Industry ex Construction&quot;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>7.953</td>
<td>-2.2</td>
<td>-2.7</td>
<td>-2.2</td>
<td>0.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Last night was the 15th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Yesterday's (November 9) Wall Street Journal included a major article arguing that the resulting reunification of Germany had not brought the anticipated surge of [...]

Slovakia Employment Firms in September; Former Soviet-Bloc Nations Show Irregular Progress 15 Years Later

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041110g.jpg" width="353">
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the target rate for federal funds by 25 basis points to 2.00%, as expected. The discount rate also was raised 25 basis points to 3.00%.
The decision was unanimous.
Today&#39;s press release from the Fed indicated &quot;The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Output appears to be growing at a moderate pace despite the rise in energy prices, and labor market conditions have improved. Inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained.
For the complete text of the Fed&#39;s latest press release please click <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2004/20041110/default.htm">here</a>.
This <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net/20041101/cover.pdf">report</a> from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis addresses &quot;Gasoline Affordability.&quot;

</body>
</html>

The Federal Open Market Committee raised the target rate for federal funds by 25 basis points to 2.00%, as expected. The discount rate also was raised 25 basis points to 3.00%. The decision was unanimous. Today's press release from [...]

Federal Funds Rate Raised to 2.0%

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041110a.jpg" width="353">
Mortgage applications fell 4.5% last week and reversed about half of the 8.2% gain the week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Purchase applications fell 2.7% after the prior week&#39;s 12.6% surge. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Applications to refinance fell 6.7% to the lowest level since early last month.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage rose to 5.96% from 5.90% the prior week and from averaged 5.92% in October. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage rose to 5.41%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM"> MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/05/04</th>
<th scope="col">10/29/04</th>
<th scope="col"> Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>727.3</td>
<td>761.7</td>
<td>16.2%</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
<td>625.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>483.0</td>
<td>496.5</td>
<td>28.7%</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
<td>304.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>2,148.7</td>
<td>2,303.9</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
<td>2,491.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Mortgage applications fell 4.5% last week and reversed about half of the 8.2% gain the week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Purchase applications fell 2.7% after the prior week's 12.6% surge. During the [...]

Mortgage Applications Falter

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041110c.jpg" width="353">
Last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked up 2,000 to 333,000 following the sharp 19,000 decline the prior week. The Consensus expectation had been for 337,000 claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 336,000 (-11.2% y/y), the lowest level in four years.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 73% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 19,000 following a deepened 26,000 decline the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.2% for the fifth week.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> <a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM"> Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col"> 11/06/04</th>
<th scope="col"> 10/30/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>333</td>
<td>331</td>
<td>-10.5%</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
<td>406</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,813</td>
<td>-18.8%</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
<td>3,018</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked up 2,000 to 333,000 following the sharp 19,000 decline the prior week. The Consensus expectation had been for 337,000 claims. The four week moving average of initial claims [...]

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ticked Up

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

Andrew Cates

**China-US shipping activity** 
The economic fallout from escalating US-China trade tensions is becoming increasingly visible in the data. A clear example is the chart below, which highlights a sharp drop in vessel arrivals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, along with a notable decline in ships waiting offshore. These trends point to a tangible weakening in bilateral trade flows, as the effects of tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by both countries begin to bite. Given the outsized role the US and China play in global commerce, this slowdown is likely to reverberate through global supply chains, weighing on trade volumes, dampening demand, and curbing economic growth worldwide.

250501Z1.jpg

**GDP growth in Q1**
Data this week showed that the US economy contracted, albeit modestly, in Q1 even as the euro area recorded a modest expansion—an unusual divergence. The contraction in US GDP can be largely attributed to a sharp increase in imports, as firms rushed to front-load purchases ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. In addition, domestic demand was subdued, with weaker contributions from both consumer spending and government consumption. This decoupling between the US and euro area economies is particularly striking given the current global focus on the US dollar. While the euro area has shown unexpected signs of resilience, the US downturn raises important questions about its underlying momentum, especially as trade dynamics and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.

250501Z2.jpg

**The US dollar versus yield differentials**
Chart 3 below illustrates a sharp breakdown in the correlation between the US-Germany 10-year yield differential and the EUR/USD exchange rate. Historically, the dollar has moved closely with interest rate spreads, as yield-seeking capital flowed into US assets. But since early 2025—and more acutely following the April tariff actions—the dollar has weakened markedly even as the yield spread has narrowed only modestly. This decoupling underscores a critical shift: capital markets are reacting not just to monetary policy, but to rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. In other words, the exchange rate is now being driven as much by risk sentiment as by interest rate arbitrage.

250501Z3.jpg

**The US economy’s structural outperformance and the dollar**
A second dynamic, captured in the next chart, reveals a tight correlation between the US real effective exchange rate and the potential GDP growth differential between the US and euro area over the past 50-60 years. This raises the question: has dollar strength (until recently) merely been a reflection of US growth leadership—or are capital inflows themselves helping to sustain this growth outperformance? In effect, the tail may be wagging the dog. Global investors have long allocated capital to the US, attracted by its macroeconomic resilience, technological leadership, and deep, liquid financial markets. The danger now is that the US trade war may disrupt this equilibrium. A sharp or sustained reduction in capital inflows could undermine growth, weaken the dollar, and trigger broader financial instability. Moreover, reversing this dynamic is not straightforward—barring a credible structural resurgence in European (or Asian) growth, the global investment landscape remains tilted toward the US.

250501Z4.jpg

**US competitiveness versus Europe, China and Japan** 
The next chart below examines relative unit labour costs across major economies since 2011. The US and China have seen a broadly similar trajectory, with steady increases in relative cost structures, while the euro area has remained flat and Japan has seen dramatic improvement. This suggests that, from a cost competitiveness standpoint, the US is not uniquely disadvantaged vis-à-vis China. However, as we discuss further below, this parallel erosion of cost competitiveness is occurring at much higher nominal wage levels in the US, which blunts its ability to regain export share through tariff-related shifts alone. The trade war strategy—absent a corresponding improvement in productivity or structural reforms—risks imposing costs without delivering material competitiveness gains.

250501Z5.jpg

**Average wages in selected developed and developing economies**
This point is reinforced by the final chart, which shows estimates for average monthly wages across countries in 2024. US labour remains much more expensive than in peer or emerging economies. So even if China’s costs rise in tandem with the US, the global supply chain has ample alternatives. 'China plus one' strategies are accelerating, and the US remains structurally misaligned with low-cost production hubs. Tariffs aimed at reshoring supply chains are unlikely to deliver sustained gains unless accompanied by deep supply-side reforms, and risk further disincentivizing foreign direct investment if global firms perceive US trade policy as erratic or punitive.

250501Z6.jpg

Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. A softening in the administration’s rhetoric around trade tariffs coupled with a less confrontational stance toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, helped ease tensions that had roiled markets earlier in the month. Equities rebounded modestly, and volatility indicators edged lower, reflecting cautious optimism that the worst of the policy shocks may be behind us. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. New shipping data point to a pronounced slowdown in US-China trade flows (chart 1), suggesting the damage from recent tariff escalations is already rippling through global supply chains. Meanwhile, incoming data for the US revealed an unexpected contraction in the economy in Q1 and further signs of weakness in the labour market (chart 2). The US dollar, in the meantime, while long supported by superior growth and yield differentials, has begun to decouple from traditional drivers (charts 3 and 4) suggesting growing pressure on capital flows. At the same time, structural imbalances are drawing renewed scrutiny: unit labour cost comparisons show the US steadily losing competitiveness (chart 5), while nominal wage disparities remain stark versus China and other Asian economies, further complicating any effort to restore trade balance without broader reforms (chart 6). In short, while markets may be drawing temporary comfort from a pause in tariff brinkmanship, the deeper economic and financial vulnerabilities exposed this month remain unresolved—and increasingly central to the global macro narrative.

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/3PzXXKrkHcwtOLipohEdnB?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Tariff Truce, Tenuous Trust

250501F20.jpg

250501G20.jpg

U.S. light vehicle sales dropped 2.9% (+6.5% y/y) to 17.31 million units (SAAR) in April after surging 10.8% to 17.82 million units in March. The retreat in April vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through March, which compared to 2.0% growth last year.

Sales declines were broad-based last month. Light truck sales fell 1.3% (+9.9% y/y) during April to 14.34 million units (SAAR), after rising 12.4% in March. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.2% (+11.9% y/y) to 11.02 million units, after jumping 12.5% in March. Sales of imported light trucks fell 1.8% (+4.4% y/y) to 3.32 million units, following an 11.6% March surge.

Trucks’ record 82.8% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 81.5% in March and 80.3% in April of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales also declined last month, down 9.5% (-7.5%) to 2.97 million units (SAAR) following a 3.5% March rise. The decline reversed all of the increase over the prior two months. Purchases of domestically-produced cars fell 9.8% (-4.3% y/y) last month to 2.22 million units, after rising 3.8% in March. Sales of imported autos declined 9.6% (-15.7% y/y) to 0.75 million units, following a 2.5% March increase.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was little changed from 23.6% in March and compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market held steady at 25.3% last month and compared to 27.7% in April of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.2% last month after falling to 23.3% in March.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the I**NDUSTRY** database.

250501H20.jpg

250501I20.jpg

- Light truck sales pull back, while auto sales tumble.
- Both domestic and imported sales decline.
- Imports' market share slips further.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Fall in April

250501J5.jpg

250501K5.jpg

The ISM Purchasing Managers Index of activity in the manufacturing sector slipped to 48.7 in April from 49.0 during March and 50.3 in February. It remained up from a low of 46.9 in October of last year. A level of 50 is the break-even point between a rising and falling level of activity. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 47.8 for April. The series reached a monthly high of 63.8 in March 2021.

Two of the five component indexes weakened last month. The April production index fell to 44.0 after declining to 48.3 in March. It was the lowest level since May 2020. A lessened 19.8% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while an increased 24.2% reported lower output. The inventories index declined to 50.8 last month from 53.4 in March. The index remained up from a low of 43.2 in October of last year.

Moving higher, the new orders index rose to 47.2 last month from 45.2 in March. The index remained below a January high of 55.1. Twenty-eight percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while 26.7% reported a decline. The employment index rose to 46.5 from 44.7 in March. It was below a high of 50.3 in January. A greater 13.1% (NSA) of respondents reported more hiring while a fewer 16.2% indicated less. The supplier delivery index rose to 55.2 from 53.5 in March. A higher 16.6% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while a fairly steady 6.2% reported a quickening.

The prices index, which is not part of the composite series, edged up to 69.8 (NSA) in April after increasing to 69.4 in March. It was the highest level since June 2022, up from a December 2022 low of 39.4. An increased 49.2% of respondents reported higher prices last month, up from 12.2% in November, while a higher 9.7% reported lower prices.

In other series, the export orders index plummeted to 43.1 in April from 49.6 during March. It was down from the high of 52.4 in January. The imports index fell sharply to 47.1 from 50.1 in March. It was the lowest reading since December 2023. The order backlog index dropped to 43.7 (NSA) last month from 44.5 in March. It was the lowest level in five months.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These indexes are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion and a reading below 50 points to contraction. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

250501L5.jpg

250501M5.jpg

- Declines in last three months follow earlier improvement.
- Production & inventories account for m/m shortfall.
- Prices index edges up to another three-year high.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Indicates Contraction in April

Winnie Tapasanun

250501N.jpg

250501O.jpg

The value of construction put in place unexpectedly fell 0.5% m/m in March after rises of 0.6% in February (+0.7% initially) and 0.1% in January (-0.5% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The March reading was the first m/m fall following five straight m/m gains. A 0.3% m/m March rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate of increase decelerated to 2.8% in March, the lowest since May 2019, after registering at 3.4% in February and January. The latest y/y figure was lower than 8.7% in March 2024; thus, having remained below its recent high of 9.8% in January 2024 and a peak of 18.6% in April 2022.

Private construction slid 0.6% (+2.3% y/y) in March, down for the first time since September, following increases of 0.7% in February (+0.9% initially) and 0.1% in January (-0.7% previously). Residential private construction fell 0.4% (+2.8% y/y) in March, the first m/m fall in six months, after an unrevised 1.3% gain in February. Home improvement building dropped 1.2% (+13.4% y/y), the first m/m decline since December, following a 2.3% February gain; it was 41.1% of the residential private construction. Single-family building edged up 0.1% (-0.8% y/y), the smallest of seven consecutive m/m increases, after a 0.8% February rise; it was 46.6% of the residential private construction. Meanwhile, multi-family building was essentially unchanged m/m (-12.1% y/y) in March following 15 straight m/m decreases; it was 12.3% of the residential private construction.

Nonresidential private construction fell 0.8% (+1.6% y/y) in March after a 0.1% increase in February (+0.4% initially) and a 0.1% easing in January (-0.2% previously). The March fall reflected m/m drops in the following nonresidential private constructions. These included religious (-2.9%; +16.4% y/y), health care (-2.2%; -5.2% y/y), office (-1.8%; +2.7% y/y), educational (-1.7%; -4.2% y/y), lodging (-1.6%; -1.0% y/y), commercial (-1.0%; -5.8% y/y), manufacturing (-0.4%; +3.6% y/y), communication (-0.3%; +2.2% y/y), and utilities (-0.1%; +7.0% y/y). In contrast, private constructions for amusement & recreation (1.5%; 7.0% y/y) and transportation (0.7%; 10.2% y/y) rose m/m in March.

The value of public construction declined 0.2% (+4.7% y/y) in March after holding steady in February (+0.2% initially), reflecting a 0.2% increase (-1.9% y/y) in residential public construction and a 0.2% easing (+4.8% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. The March decline reflected m/m drops in the following nonresidential public constructions. These included utilities (-4.8%; -12.8% y/y), commercial (-1.6%; +40.3% y/y), amusement & recreation (-1.0%; +19.1% y/y), educational (-0.6%; +7.6% y/y), sewage & waste disposal (-0.6%; +10.6% y/y), and health care (-0.4%; +13.0% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which made up 28.7% of public construction spending, fell 0.5% (-2.4% y/y) in March, the first m/m fall since October, following a 0.9% increase in February. To the upside, the following public constructions rose m/m in March: office (1.6%; 6.0% y/y), transportation (1.4%; 7.3% y/y), public safety (0.7%; 4.1% y/y), conservation & development (0.6%; 4.7% y/y), and water supply (0.6%; 12.2% y/y).

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

250501P.jpg

250501Q.jpg

- March construction spending -0.5% m/m; +2.8% y/y, the lowest y/y rate since May ’19.
- Residential private construction -0.4% m/m, led by a 1.2% drop in home improvement building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.8% m/m, down for the second month in three.
- Public sector construction -0.2% m/m, reflecting a 0.2% decline in nonresidential public building.

U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Drops in March, the First M/M Fall Since September

250501A8.jpg

250501B8.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 18,000 in the week ended April 26 to 241,000, seasonally adjusted.  This is higher by 16,000 than the Action Economics Forecast Survey amount of 225,000 and is the largest amount since the week of February 22. The previous week’s actual count was revised up by 1,000 to 223,000, from 222,000 reported initially.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – in the week ended April 19 was 1.916 million, up 83,000 from the prior week’s 1.833 million; that earlier amount was revised down by 8,000.

The insured unemployment rate, that is, the number of beneficiaries as a percentage of covered employment, was 1.3% in the April 19 week, following 1.2% continuously since the week of January 6, 2024.

Economic conditions vary widely across states and territories.  In the week ended April 12, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.39%), California (2.24%), Washington (2.19%), Rhode Island (2.17%) and Massachusetts (1.93%).  The lowest rates were in Florida (0.35%), South Dakota (0.40%), Alabama (0.41%), Virginia (0.45%) and Tennessee (0.48%).  Rates in other notable states include the Illinois (1.85%), New York (1.71%), Pennsylvania (1.54%) and Texas (1.09%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in U**SECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250501C8.jpg

250501D8.jpg

- Actual initial claims amount is 16,000 more than forecast.
- Total beneficiaries rose by 83,000.
- Insured unemployment rate ticked up to 1.3% after 15 months at 1.2%.

Economy in Brief: November 2004

Jump to:

U.S. Retail Sales Gain

German Growth Slows in Q3; Netherlands and Spain See Improvement

Home Price Appreciation Varies

Home Price Appreciation Varies

Slovakia Employment Firms in September; Former Soviet-Bloc Nations Show Irregular Progress 15 Years Later

Federal Funds Rate Raised to 2.0%

Mortgage Applications Falter

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ticked Up