Global| Nov 11 2004Home Price Appreciation Varies
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New home price appreciation across the US varies widely; by what is measured and by region. The average price of a new home rose 8.4% through 3Q, a slowdown from the peak rate of appreciation of 13.7%. Median prices through 3Q rose [...]
New home price appreciation across the US varies widely; by what is measured and by region.
The average price of a new home rose 8.4% through 3Q, a slowdown from the peak rate of appreciation of 13.7%. Median prices through 3Q rose 9.7%, down from a 15.4% peak in 1Q04.
Adjusted for quality improvements, the Census Bureau estimates that new home prices rose a lesser 6.4% through 3Q.
Older existing single family home prices rose a median 7.7% y/y through 3Q. That, however, reflects a 10.6% rise through 1Q04 in improvements (+14.2%) and repairs (2.3%).
Location, Location, Location: Home price appreciation in the Western region of the US during 2003 was roughly triple that in the Midwest, a comparison driven at least in part by 0.8% growth in employment in the West (2.5% in '04) versus 0.1% growth in the Midwest (0.9% in '04).
Are Home Prices the Next "Bubble"? from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
| New Single Family Home Prices | 1 Year Chg. | 2 Year Chg. (AR) | 5 Year Chg. (AR) |
|---|---|---|---|
| US (Average) | 8.4% | 11.0% | 6.9% |
| Quality Adjusted | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% |
| By Region Thru 2003: | |||
| West | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% |
| Northeast | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% |
| South | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Midwest | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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