Economy in Brief: March 2021

• Total income falls but wage income holds steady. • Spending weakens across categories. • Pricing power moderates. Personal income weakened 7.1% (+4.3% y/y) during February following a little-revised 10.1% January jump. A 7.0% [...]

The GfK German confidence gauge is still quite weak as it posts a headline reading of -6.2 (projected for April). This compares to an historic average reading of 5.2. Place the April reading in its range of values and the current [...]

• Growth continues at a record level. • Component movement is mixed. • Expectations for six months ahead improve. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to a record [...]

• PUA initial claims decline in March 20 week. • Continuing claims in regular state programs reach lowest since mid-March 2020. • Insured jobless rate declines to lowest since pandemic set in. Initial claims for unemployment insurance [...]

• Activity remains 2.4% below Q4'19 peak. • Corporate earnings drop follows Q3 surge. • Business fixed investment led growth at yearend. Real GDP rose 4.3% (SAAR) during Q4'20 (-2.4% y/y), revised from 4.1%, following a record 33.4% [...]

The future course of consumer price inflation has been a hot topic of discussion in the financial media of late. On the one hand, there some analysts, myself included, who believe that higher inflation is on the way, and not just a [...]

The Markit PMI 'flash' readings for March show improvement and for the most part - strong improvement - all up and down the line. Japan is the sole exception with a small improvement month-to-month based on small improvements in both [...]

• Refinancing applications decline as mortgage interestrates rise. • Purchase applications rise further. The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Loan Applications Index declined 2.5% (-0.8% y/y) in the week ended March 19, the sixth [...]