Economy in Brief: September 2022

Consumer climate on the GfK measure for Germany, a forward-looking estimate for confidence in October, shows a drop to -42.5, a new low in the series that dates to early-2002. GfK confidence has been dropping sharply and consistently from -27.7 in July to -30.9 in August to -36.8 in September and finally to -42.5 in October. This deterioration is coming in the face of ECB rate hikes, stubborn high inflation, threatened energy supplies, and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. The recent drop reflects a more complete reaction to the shutting of the energy flow through the Russian Nord Stream pipeline. However, there may be even worse pipeline news ahead. A day ago, an undersea rupture in the pipeline that is being called an act of sabotage or terrorism, has created an undersea leak that may more thoroughly cripple the pipeline and nullify its capabilities for some time to come.

The components of the GfK index are released with a lag of one month. GfK reports values for September as the most up-to-date readings for components. Economic confidence fell in September to -21.9 from -17.6 in August. It was a strong as -11.7 in June.

Income expectations weakened even more sharply, falling to -67.7 in September from -45.3 in August. This reading had been as strong as -33.5 in June.

The consumer's propensity to buy reading also fell in September to -19.5 from -15.7 in August. Its June value was -13.7. The slippage on the buying gauge has been much more measured than for other GfK components.

Standings among components The economic gauge stands in its 6.4 percentile. Income expectations are at their all-time low on data back to January 2002. The propensity to buy reading is down to its 17.7 percentile standing, the highest standing of the lot, but still an exceptionally low reading that has been lower historically less than one-fifth of the time.

Successive new lows for GfK The last six monthly headline GfK values have set successive new lows in for that index. Clearly, this is a period of severe confidence weakness on data back to 2002 – a period that contains the Great Recession as well as the brief but sharp negative impact from Covid.

Elsewhere in Europe Germany is not alone in this weakness. Confidence gauges for Italy, France and the U.K. also weaken in the most recent month- that reflects data up to date though September. In Italy, the confidence index fell to 94.8 from 98.3 in August. In France, confidence fell in September to 79.1 from 81.9 in August. The U.K. index fell to -49 in September from -44.0 in August. Evaluated on the same timeline as the German GfK headline back to 2002, the Italian reading stands at its 18.1-percentile, the French reading is at its 0.4-percentile, while the U.K. measure is at a new low on this timeline.