Tom Moeller

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100126a.jpg" style="width: 353px; height: 265px;" align="right">The
housing
market has improved enough to improve pricing power but outright
strength is not at hand. The November S&amp;P/Case Shiller Home
Price Index edged up another 0.2%, about as it did during the prior two
months. The increases in this 20 City Composite index were below those
during the prior three months. However, they were enough to improve the
y/y comparison to -5.3% from its worst of -19.0% last January.
The
narrower 10 City Composite Index also gained 0.2% and the y/y change
improved to -4.5% from -19.4% at its worst. These negative comparisons
by far outpace those during the 1990-91 recession which reached minus
6.3%.· Notable monthly gains in home prices during November were logged
by Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco. Positive changes also were
logged in Dallas.
 The Case Shiller home price series are
value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is&nbsp; assigned to
more expensive homes. The S&amp;P/Case-Shiller home price series
can be found in Haver's USECON database and the
city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL
database.
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100126b.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100126c.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">S&amp;P/Case-Shiller
Home Price Index (SA, Jan 00 = 100)</th>
<th scope="col">November m/m</th>
<th scope="col">October&nbsp;&nbsp;
m/m</th>
<th scope="col">September m/m</th>
<th scope="col">Nov. y/y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">20 City Composite Index</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-5.3%</td>
<td>-15.7%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8">&nbsp; Regional
Indicators</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Atlanta</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>-6.2</td>
<td>-8.5</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>4.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Boston</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>-0.7</td>
<td>-5.7</td>
<td>-4.0</td>
<td>-1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Chicago</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>-8.5</td>
<td>-10.0</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>6.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Dallas</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>-3.2</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>3.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Denver</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>-4.9</td>
<td>-1.7</td>
<td>2.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Los Angeles</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>-3.5</td>
<td>-24.2</td>
<td>-5.2</td>
<td>11.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
New York</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>-7.1</td>
<td>-7.4</td>
<td>-2.8</td>
<td>7.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
San Francisco</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>-24.3</td>
<td>-4.5</td>
<td>4.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

</body></html>

The housing market has improved enough to improve pricing power but outright strength is not at hand. The November S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index edged up another 0.2%, about as it did during the prior two months. The increases in [...]

Case-Shiller Home Price Gains Are Modest

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100126a.jpg" style="width: 353px; height: 265px;" align="right">The
housing
market has improved enough to improve pricing power but outright
strength is not at hand. The November S&amp;P/Case Shiller Home
Price Index edged up another 0.2%, about as it did during the prior two
months. The increases in this 20 City Composite index were below those
during the prior three months. However, they were enough to improve the
y/y comparison to -5.3% from its worst of -19.0% last January.
The
narrower 10 City Composite Index also gained 0.2% and the y/y change
improved to -4.5% from -19.4% at its worst. These negative comparisons
by far outpace those during the 1990-91 recession which reached minus
6.3%.· Notable monthly gains in home prices during November were logged
by Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco. Positive changes also were
logged in Dallas.
 The Case Shiller home price series are
value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is&nbsp; assigned to
more expensive homes. The S&amp;P/Case-Shiller home price series
can be found in Haver's USECON database and the
city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL
database.
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100126b.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100126c.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">S&amp;P/Case-Shiller
Home Price Index (SA, Jan 00 = 100)</th>
<th scope="col">November m/m</th>
<th scope="col">October&nbsp;&nbsp;
m/m</th>
<th scope="col">September m/m</th>
<th scope="col">Nov. y/y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">20 City Composite Index</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-5.3%</td>
<td>-15.7%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8">&nbsp; Regional
Indicators</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Atlanta</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>-6.2</td>
<td>-8.5</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>4.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Boston</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>-0.7</td>
<td>-5.7</td>
<td>-4.0</td>
<td>-1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Chicago</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>-8.5</td>
<td>-10.0</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>6.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Dallas</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>-3.2</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>3.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Denver</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>-4.9</td>
<td>-1.7</td>
<td>2.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Los Angeles</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>-3.5</td>
<td>-24.2</td>
<td>-5.2</td>
<td>11.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
New York</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>-7.1</td>
<td>-7.4</td>
<td>-2.8</td>
<td>7.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
San Francisco</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>-24.3</td>
<td>-4.5</td>
<td>4.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves
Modestly 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller&nbsp;</a> December 26, 2009



<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100126d.jpg" style="width: 353px; height: 265px;" align="right">The
consumer's mood regarding the economy has improved, but after the jump
last spring little headway developed. The Conference Board indicated
that consumer confidence during January rose 4.3% from December after
similar gains during the prior two months. Due to earlier declines,
however, these increases left confidence roughly equal to last May. The
Conference Board data can be found in Haver's CBDB
database.
 Despite the loss of forward momentum confidence remained up
roughly one-half from last January. During the last ten years there has
been an 87% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and
the y/y change in real consumer spending.
 Consumers' assessment of the
current economic conditions jumped by one-quarter this month but only
back to last summer's high. It remained near the historic low. Jobs
were seen as hard to get by 47.4% of respondents and jobs were seen as
plentiful by only 4.3%. That was up just slightly from the series'
historic low. Business conditions were seen as good by only 9.0% and
that also was near the series' low. Consumers who thought business
conditions were bad rose slightly to 46.1%. While off somewhat from its
high the reading was still nearly the highest since 1983.&nbsp;·
The expectations component of confidence improved slightly m/m and the
index remained near the highest level since late-2007. Most expected
business conditions &amp; employment to remain the same and that's
a vast improvement from the deterioration seen last winter.
Expectations for the inflation rate in twelve months held stable at
5.3%, the lowest level since 2007 and down from last year's high of
7.7%. Interest rates in twelve months were expected to be higher by an
increased 52.3% of respondents, while a reduced 12.5% expected rates to
fall. A greatly increased 36.3% of respondents expected stock prices to
rise. 
 Consumers continued to manage their spending plans
cautiously. A reduced 1.8% plan to buy a home during the next six
months while just 24.7% plan to buy a major appliance. That's versus
30.9% back in 2007. Only 5.1% plan to buy an automobile versus 6.0% in
2007. Just 2.0% plan to buy a new one.
 Real Time
Underlying Inflation Gauges for Monetary Policymakers from
the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available&nbsp; <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr420.pdf">here</a>.&nbsp;
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100126e.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100126f.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Conference
Board&nbsp;(SA, 1985=100)</th>
<th scope="col">January</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y %</th>
<th scope="col">2009</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer
Confidence Index</td>
<td>55.9</td>
<td>53.6</td>
<td>50.6</td>
<td>49.5</td>
<td>45.2</td>
<td>57.9</td>
<td>103.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;
Present Situation</td>
<td>25.0</td>
<td>20.2</td>
<td>21.2</td>
<td>-15.8</td>
<td>24.0</td>
<td>69.9</td>
<td>128.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;
Expectations</td>
<td>76.5</td>
<td>75.9</td>
<td>70.3</td>
<td>80.0</td>
<td>59.3</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>86.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Less Pessimism Among German
Business Executives 
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise
Curley</a> December 26, 2009



<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100126g.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;"><img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100126h.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">German
business confidence improved in January in contrast to that of
investors and consumers, but it is still relatively subdued.&nbsp;
The IFO institute, which surveys some 7000 executives in manufacturing,
construction, wholesale and retail trade, reports its results in two
ways: in index form with (2000=100) and as a percent balance between
those who see improvement and those who see deterioration.&nbsp;
The index is useful in tracking the ups and downs in confidence, but
the percent balances give some insight into the degree of confidence of
the&nbsp; participants.&nbsp; For example, in January, the
index of current conditions increased to 91.2 from 90.4 in December and
the percent balance increased to -21.0% from -22.6%.&nbsp; Thus
both measures showed an improvement in the appraisal of current
conditions, but the percent balance also showed that there were still
21% more respondents who appraised current conditions negatively than
those who appraised them positively.
 The IFO's
headline measure of confidence, the Business Climate for all industry,
is a combination of the replies of the participants regarding current
conditions and expectations for the future.&nbsp; The percent
balances for the Business Climate, Current Conditions and Expectations
for the future are shown in the first chart.
 The
Business Climate for all industry has improved steadily since March of
this year when it was -42.8% to -9.0% in January.&nbsp; There has
been little change in construction climate.&nbsp; The pessimists
still exceed the optimists by 21.5%.&nbsp; The climate in retail
trade has fared better than that of construction, but the pessimists
still exceed the optimists by 12.8%.&nbsp; The strongest
improvements in confidence have taken place in manufacturing and
wholesale trade climates, where the pessimists now exceed the optimists
by only 4.7% in wholesale trade and 6.6% in manufacturing. These trends
are shown in the second chart.
 Most of the percent balance data in the
latest survey are still negative indicating that the predominant mood
of most German business executives is still pessimistic, or at best,
skeptical. There is, however, one notable change.&nbsp; The latest
survey shows that, for the first time since August 2007, there is a
small, but significant, excess, 3.7%, of optimists over pessimists
regarding business expectations.&nbsp;&nbsp; In November there
was a balance between optimists and pessimists and in December an
excess of optimists of 0.2%.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col">IFO
Business Survey (% balance)</th>
<th scope="col">Jan 10&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 09</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 08</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 09</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 09</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 09</th>
<th scope="col">Jul 09</th>
<th scope="col">Jun 09</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Business Climate</td>
<td>-9.0</td>
<td>-11.5</td>
<td>-12.9</td>
<td>-16.5</td>
<td>-17.8</td>
<td>-19.2</td>
<td>-25.4</td>
<td>-28.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Current Conditions</td>
<td>-21.0</td>
<td>-22.6</td>
<td>-24.9</td>
<td>-28.4</td>
<td>-29.0</td>
<td>-30.6</td>
<td>-34.1</td>
<td>-38.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Expectations</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>-3.9</td>
<td>-5.9</td>
<td>-7.0</td>
<td>-16.1</td>
<td>-18.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="9" class="firstcol">Business
Climate</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing</td>
<td>-6.6</td>
<td>-9.3</td>
<td>-11.4</td>
<td>-16.5</td>
<td>-19.4</td>
<td>-21.2</td>
<td>-29.0</td>
<td>-33.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Construction</td>
<td>-21.5</td>
<td>-26.8</td>
<td>-27.3</td>
<td>-25.2</td>
<td>-25.6</td>
<td>-23.8</td>
<td>-25.2</td>
<td>-23.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Wholesale Trade</td>
<td>-4.7</td>
<td>-6.9</td>
<td>-8.1</td>
<td>-10.6</td>
<td>-12.0</td>
<td>-14.0</td>
<td>-21.8</td>
<td>-24.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Retail Trade</td>
<td>-12.8</td>
<td>-12.3</td>
<td>-12.9</td>
<td>-17.0</td>
<td>-12.6</td>
<td>-14.9</td>
<td>-17.6</td>
<td>-17.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

FHFA Home Price Index Ticks Up
Both M/M And Y/Y 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller&nbsp;</a> December 26, 2009



<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100126i.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;"><img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100126j.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">

The U.S. House Price Index from the Federal Housing and
Finance Agency (FHFA) continued to show improvement last fall. The
Purchase Only Index for November rose 0.7% after its 0.4% October
increase. Moreover, the year-to-year change turned positive for the
first time since late-2007. Since their peak in early-2007 home prices
nationwide have fallen 10.3%. The FHFA uses data provided by Fannie Mae
and Freddie Mac and is not value-weighted.

The HPI is calculated using a repeat sales index. That means
that the HPI measures changes in the price of the same property over
time but does not measure changes in property types over time. So if,
for example, the price of a larger, new home was not growing very
rapidly, but the number of people transitioning from smaller homes to
larger homes greatly increased, median house prices would go up (people
buying more expensive houses) much more than the HPI. In this way, the
HPI is a better measure of how any particular home is appreciating
while the median house price is a better measure of what the typical
home buyer is paying.
Notable monthly gains in home prices during November were
logged in the Pacific, South Atlantic and Mountain regions of the
country and the y/y declines moderated significantly.

<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100126k.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;"><img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100126l.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">FHFA
U.S. House Price Index Purchase Only (%)</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>-5.8</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>6.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; New England</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>-4.7</td>
<td>-1.7</td>
<td>1.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Middle
Atlantic</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>-1.3</td>
<td>-1.6</td>
<td>-2.3</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>6.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; East North
Central</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>-4.4</td>
<td>-1.3</td>
<td>1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West North
Central</td>
<td>-0.0</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>-0.0</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>-2.8</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>3.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South
Atlantic</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>-1.5</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>-7.3</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>7.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; East South
Central</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>-1.6</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>-1.5</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West South
Central</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>4.7</td>
<td>7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Mountain</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>-1.3</td>
<td>-4.9</td>
<td>-6.2</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>10.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Pacific</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>-17.3</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>9.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Case-Shiller Home Price Gains AreModest

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100125a.jpg" style="width: 353px; height: 265px;" align="right">
The National
Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes
fell 16.7% from November as a since-extended tax credit for first home
buyers was due to expire. The decline to 5.450M units (SAAR) followed a
little-revised 7.4% rise and similarly strong gains back through July.
The fall in December home sales greatly exceeded Consensus expectations
for decline to 5.90M. For all of last year, the tax credit, along with
improved affordability, raised home sales by 5.5% from 2008. However,
that recovery made up only a piece of larger declines during the prior
three years. As a result, total sales last year remained 27.0% below
the 2005 peak. Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops. Sales
of existing single-family homes alone fell 16.8% from November to
4.790M but remained up 18.3% from the January low. For all of 2009,
sales rose 5.4% after sharp declines during the prior three years.
(These data have a longer history than the total sales series). Sales
of condos and co-ops fell 15.4% m/m but were up by one-third from the
November '08 low. Sales have been helped by a recently
extended tax credit for first-time home buyers. The credit of up to
$8,000 now runs though April 30. Additionally, a new credit of up to
$6,500 is available to some existing home owners who move. The full
details of the home-buyer tax credit can be found <a href="http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/faq.php">here</a>.&nbsp; The median price of all existing homes jumped 4.9% last month to the
highest level since July. The median price for a single-family home
alone was strong, rising 4.8% to $177,500 (1.4% y/y). For the year as a
whole, however, weakness in home sales pulled prices lower. The 11.6%
decline from 2007 was the third consecutive year of decline. Prices
remained down 22% from the 2007 monthly peak. Price weakness sharply
raised home affordability; by 7.8% since July and by two-thirds from
the 2006 low. The median family income for existing home buyers was
$60,034 and mortgage payments amounted to 14.9% of that total.&nbsp; The
number of unsold homes (single-family &amp; co-ops) for sale fell a
sharp 6.6% (-11.1% y/y) during December to the lowest level since
March&nbsp; 2006. At the current sales rate there was a 7.2 months'
supply of homes on the market, near the lowest since late 2006. The
latest figure was down from a high of 11.3 months during April of 2008.
For single-family homes, the inventory fell to a 6.9 months' supply,
the lowest since March 2007.&nbsp;The data on existing home
sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON
database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data is
available in the REALTOR database.Alt-A:
The Forgotten Segment of the Mortgage Market from the
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/10/01/Sengupta.pdf">here</a>.
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100125b.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100125c.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Existing
Home Sales (Thous, SAAR)</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">Dec. Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2009</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>5,450</td>
<td>6,540</td>
<td>6,090</td>
<td>15.0%</td>
<td>5,164</td>
<td>4,893</td>
<td>5,674</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>910</td>
<td>1,130</td>
<td>1,060</td>
<td>21.3</td>
<td>863</td>
<td>845</td>
<td>1,010</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>1,150</td>
<td>1,550</td>
<td>1,430</td>
<td>8.5</td>
<td>1,168</td>
<td>1,130</td>
<td>1,331</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>2,010</td>
<td>2,400</td>
<td>2,280</td>
<td>15.5</td>
<td>1,913</td>
<td>1,860</td>
<td>2,243</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>1,380</td>
<td>1,450</td>
<td>1,320</td>
<td>15.0</td>
<td>1,216</td>
<td>1,064</td>
<td>1,095</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Single-Family</td>
<td>4,790</td>
<td>5,760</td>
<td>5,320</td>
<td>12.7</td>
<td>4,573</td>
<td>4,341</td>
<td>4,960</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Median Price, Total, $
(NSA)</td>
<td>178,300</td>
<td>170,000</td>
<td>172,200</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>173,458</td>
<td>197,233</td>
<td>216,633</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</body></html>

The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell 16.7% from November as a since-extended tax credit for first home buyers was due to expire. The decline to 5.450M units (SAAR) followed a little-revised [...]

U.S. Existing Home Sales Sink But Prices Firm

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100125a.jpg" style="width: 353px; height: 265px;" align="right">The
National
Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes
fell 16.7% from November as a since-extended tax credit for first home
buyers was due to expire. The decline to 5.450M units (SAAR) followed a
little-revised 7.4% rise and similarly strong gains back through July.
The fall in December home sales greatly exceeded Consensus expectations
for decline to 5.90M.
 For all of last year, the tax credit, along with
improved affordability, raised home sales by 5.5% from 2008. However,
that recovery made up only a piece of larger declines during the prior
three years. As a result, total sales last year remained 27.0% below
the 2005 peak. 
Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops. Sales
of existing single-family homes alone fell 16.8% from November to
4.790M but remained up 18.3% from the January low. For all of 2009,
sales rose 5.4% after sharp declines during the prior three years.
(These data have a longer history than the total sales series). Sales
of condos and co-ops fell 15.4% m/m but were up by one-third from the
November '08 low.
 Sales have been helped by a recently
extended tax credit for first-time home buyers. The credit of up to
$8,000 now runs though April 30. Additionally, a new credit of up to
$6,500 is available to some existing home owners who move. The full
details of the home-buyer tax credit can be found <a href="http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/faq.php">here</a>.&nbsp;
 The median price of all existing homes jumped 4.9% last month
to the
highest level since July. The median price for a single-family home
alone was strong, rising 4.8% to $177,500 (1.4% y/y). For the year as a
whole, however, weakness in home sales pulled prices lower. The 11.6%
decline from 2007 was the third consecutive year of decline. Prices
remained down 22% from the 2007 monthly peak. Price weakness sharply
raised home affordability; by 7.8% since July and by two-thirds from
the 2006 low. The median family income for existing home buyers was
$60,034 and mortgage payments amounted to 14.9% of that total.&nbsp;
 The
number of unsold homes (single-family &amp; co-ops) for sale fell a
sharp 6.6% (-11.1% y/y) during December to the lowest level since
March&nbsp; 2006. At the current sales rate there was a 7.2 months'
supply of homes on the market, near the lowest since late 2006. The
latest figure was down from a high of 11.3 months during April of 2008.
For single-family homes, the inventory fell to a 6.9 months' supply,
the lowest since March 2007.&nbsp;
The data on existing home
sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON
database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data is
available in the REALTOR database.
Alt-A:
The Forgotten Segment of the Mortgage Market from the
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/10/01/Sengupta.pdf">here</a>.
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100125b.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100125c.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Existing
Home Sales (Thous, SAAR)</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">Dec. Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2009</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>5,450</td>
<td>6,540</td>
<td>6,090</td>
<td>15.0%</td>
<td>5,164</td>
<td>4,893</td>
<td>5,674</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>910</td>
<td>1,130</td>
<td>1,060</td>
<td>21.3</td>
<td>863</td>
<td>845</td>
<td>1,010</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>1,150</td>
<td>1,550</td>
<td>1,430</td>
<td>8.5</td>
<td>1,168</td>
<td>1,130</td>
<td>1,331</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>2,010</td>
<td>2,400</td>
<td>2,280</td>
<td>15.5</td>
<td>1,913</td>
<td>1,860</td>
<td>2,243</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>1,380</td>
<td>1,450</td>
<td>1,320</td>
<td>15.0</td>
<td>1,216</td>
<td>1,064</td>
<td>1,095</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Single-Family</td>
<td>4,790</td>
<td>5,760</td>
<td>5,320</td>
<td>12.7</td>
<td>4,573</td>
<td>4,341</td>
<td>4,960</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Median Price, Total, $
(NSA)</td>
<td>178,300</td>
<td>170,000</td>
<td>172,200</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>173,458</td>
<td>197,233</td>
<td>216,633</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Belgium Leads The Way, Pauses Then
Resumes Its Climb 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> January 25, 2010


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100125d.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Belgium is a small open EMU economy that tends to lead the way
in the Euro-business cycle. It is headed higher once again in January.
The chart above shows that the Belgium MFG index usually surges early
and peaks ahead of the indices for Germany and EMU. At this point in
the cycle Belgium is doing that again. After leading the parade higher,
the Belgian National Bank index of MFG paused, but has resumed its move
higher. That&#8217;s good news for Europe.
Belgium is a small open economy that sits at the cross roads
of Euro-activity. Its index is usually the first released among the
Zone members so it is a natural as a bellwether from a timing
standpoint. To underscore that point the index reliably tends to lead
the Europe&#8217;s cycle hence paying attention to this small country&#8217;s
economic data makes considerable sense.
Just today Germany sharply revised up its orders in November
that it had released on Friday, leading to upward revisions to November
EMU orders as well. Now in fresh data from January, the Belgian bank
index is continuing to gain momentum. The overall Belgian index has
improved its reading for the 10th month in a row. Manufacturing is back
to improving after a one-month misstep; MFG has improved in eight of
the last ten months.
The Belgian index places MFG in the top two thirds of its
range. Business services stand in the top 40% of its range. Wholesaling
and retailing are near mid-range in the 47th percentile. Construction
is lagging badly in Belgium standing in the eighth percentile of its
range.
For MFG the orders assessment is very up beat with both
domestic and foreign orders in the 60th and 70th percentiles of their
respective ranges. Like Germany and EMU, Belgium shows that foreign
orders are the greater source for growth. Production stands even higher
in the 75th percentile of its range.
On balance the Belgian Bank index is a bit reassuring ahead of
the release of the monthly German reports form Zew and the IFO as well
as the EMU-wide releases from the European Commission. There has been
some sputtering in European and in US data recently. Does the Belgian
index point to a re-emergence of up beat reports for the month ahead?
We shall soon see, but based on historic relationships, the best bet is
that it does point to better euro-reports for the month ahead.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" colspan="9"> Belgium National
Bank Indices</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Jan-10</td>
<td>Dec-09</td>
<td>Nov-09</td>
<td>3Mo Change</td>
<td>6MO Change</td>
<td>12Mo Change</td>
<td>Percentile</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Ind</td>
<td>-7.0</td>
<td>-7.9</td>
<td>-8.8</td>
<td>7.2</td>
<td>15.8</td>
<td>20.6</td>
<td>60.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;MFG</td>
<td>-7.2</td>
<td>-9.3</td>
<td>-8.6</td>
<td>8.6</td>
<td>14.7</td>
<td>21.8</td>
<td>67.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Prod</td>
<td>7.0</td>
<td>4.0</td>
<td>6.0</td>
<td>-2.0</td>
<td>13.0</td>
<td>28.0</td>
<td>75.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Dom Ord</td>
<td>-4.0</td>
<td>-9.0</td>
<td>-9.0</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>6.0</td>
<td>13.0</td>
<td>60.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; FGN Ord</td>
<td>8.0</td>
<td>-3.0</td>
<td>-3.0</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>15.0</td>
<td>43.0</td>
<td>70.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Prices</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>-9.0</td>
<td>-8.0</td>
<td>11.0</td>
<td>20.0</td>
<td>12.0</td>
<td>66.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Current
assess</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Tot Ord</td>
<td>-34.0</td>
<td>-38.0</td>
<td>-36.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>15.0</td>
<td>15.0</td>
<td>33.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Fgn Ord</td>
<td>-34.0</td>
<td>-38.0</td>
<td>-34.0</td>
<td>4.0</td>
<td>15.0</td>
<td>19.0</td>
<td>38.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;
Inventories</td>
<td>-13.0</td>
<td>-12.0</td>
<td>-10.0</td>
<td>-8.0</td>
<td>-9.0</td>
<td>-11.0</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Wholesale&amp;
Retail</td>
<td>-9.0</td>
<td>-6.3</td>
<td>-10.0</td>
<td>8.1</td>
<td>8.6</td>
<td>18.3</td>
<td>47.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Construction</td>
<td>-15.7</td>
<td>-9.1</td>
<td>-10.0</td>
<td>-5.0</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Business Services</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>-1.4</td>
<td>-7.8</td>
<td>13.0</td>
<td>38.6</td>
<td>37.1</td>
<td>59.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Comparisons:</td>
<td colspan="3"></td>
<td colspan="3">Changes lag one month</td>
<td>1-Mo Lag</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">EU Index: Industry</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>-16.0</td>
<td>-19.0</td>
<td>8.0</td>
<td>9.0</td>
<td>17.0</td>
<td>48.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Gy Index:Industry</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>-19.0</td>
<td>-21.0</td>
<td>10.0</td>
<td>10.0</td>
<td>15.0</td>
<td>42.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Compare: BNB Index</td>
<td>--&nbsp;</td>
<td>--&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;--</td>
<td>9.9</td>
<td>10.3</td>
<td>20.9</td>
<td>Since&nbsp;Jan-96</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Lackluster German Consumer Climate 
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise
Curley</a> December 25, 2009


<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100125e.jpg" style="width: 353px; height: 265px;" align="right">On
the basis of its January survey,
GfK* is forecasting that its economic climate measure will decline for
the fourth month in February to 3.2% from 3.4%, as shown in the first
chart.&nbsp; This marks the fourth month of decline.
 The January
survey has shown that German consumers continue to be less enthusiastic
about the general economy and their own prospects than they were in
September/October of last year.&nbsp; Even though the survey shows
an increase of 4.2 percentage points from December to January in the
percent balance of those who intend to increase their spending, it is,
at 25.4%, still below the recent peak of 36.5% reached in September of
last year.&nbsp; GfK suggested that the proliferation of special
sales and discounted merchandise may have had a positive effect on the
propensity to consume that has over come the negative effect of poor
income prospects.&nbsp;<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100125f.jpg" style="width: 353px; height: 265px;" align="right">
The components of the survey are shown in
the second chart.
 Although there has been a substantial improvement in
the components of the survey since the low points reached at the end of
2008 and early 2009, only income expectations are at all close to the
all time peaks reached in late 2006 and mid 2007.&nbsp; The percent
balance on income expectations was 12.5% in January, 21.1 percentage
points below the all time peak of 33.6%. The comparable
figures&nbsp; for economic expectations were 1.5%, 67.5 percentage
points below the all time peak of 69.0% and for the propensity to
consume 25.4%, 39.0 percentage points below the all time peak of
64.4%&nbsp; These data are shown in the second chart and in the
table below.&nbsp;&nbsp; *Geschellschaft fur
Konsumforshung.&nbsp; (Company for Consumer Research)
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;</th>
<th style="font-weight: normal;" scope="col">Feb
10</th>
<th style="font-weight: normal;" scope="col">Jan
10</th>
<th style="font-weight: normal;" scope="col">Dec
09</th>
<th style="font-weight: normal;" scope="col">Recent&nbsp;
Peak</th>
<th style="font-weight: normal;" scope="col">Date</th>
<th style="font-weight: normal;" scope="col">Recent
Trough</th>
<th style="font-weight: normal;" scope="col">Date</th>
<th style="font-weight: normal;" scope="col">Chg
from Trough</th>
<th style="font-weight: normal;" scope="col">All
Time Peak</th>
<th style="font-weight: normal;" scope="col">Date</th>
<th style="font-weight: normal;" scope="col">Chg
Present from Peak</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Propensity to
Consume</td>
<td>--&nbsp;</td>
<td>25.4</td>
<td>21.2</td>
<td>36.5</td>
<td>Sep 
09</td>
<td>-27.9</td>
<td>Aug 
08</td>
<td>53.3</td>
<td>64.4</td>
<td>Oct 
06</td>
<td>-39.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Income Expectations</td>
<td>--&nbsp;</td>
<td>12.5</td>
<td>15.0</td>
<td>16.0</td>
<td>Sep 
09</td>
<td>-20.5</td>
<td>Jan 
09</td>
<td>33.0</td>
<td>33.6</td>
<td>May 
07</td>
<td>-21.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Economic
Expectations</td>
<td>--&nbsp;</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>1.7</td>
<td>8.7</td>
<td>Oct 
09</td>
<td>-32.9</td>
<td>Jan 
09</td>
<td>34.4</td>
<td>69.0</td>
<td>Jun 
07</td>
<td>-67.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Climate</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>3.6</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>Oct 
09</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>Sep/ 
Oct08</td>
<td>4.7</td>
<td>9.1</td>
<td>Dec 
06</td>
<td>-5.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

U.S. Existing Home Sales Sink ButPrices Firm

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style></head>
<body>
 


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091224a.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Despite
only
a modest rise in November durable goods orders, the trend has improved
sharply. Durable goods orders rose 0.2% last month after an unrevised
0.6% October decline. The latest increase lifted orders 5.4% above the
March low and the y/y decline of 7.8% compares with a peak 26.6%
decline last winter. A 0.5% November gain had been the Consensus
expectation.
A 5.5% (-10.9% y/y) decline in transportation equipment
orders in fact masked the degree of improvement in overall orders.
Transportation orders were pulled down by a 32.6% (-3.7% y/y) decline
in civilian aircraft. Excluding transportation altogether, orders rose
2.0% during November and have risen 7.3% from their April low.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091224b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Primary
metals orders also continued their recovery with a 1.4% November
increase (-7.3% y/y) and they have risen one-quarter from the March
low. Electrical equipment orders rose about as they did during October.
The 3.2% gain lifted orders 10.0% from the spring low. Orders for
computers &amp; related equipment also improved for the second
month by 1.6% during November. The increase lifted them 14.9% above
April's low. Finally, machinery orders increased 3.5% (-14.0% y/y),
made up half of the October decline and raised them 9.8% from the low.

The decline in aircraft bookings also masked improvement in other
capital goods orders. Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft
more than recovered the October slump with a 2.9% increase and they now
are 9.8% above the April low.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091224c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Shipments of durable goods ticked up
0.3% (-8.8% y/y) during November following increases in two of the
prior three months. Shipments now have risen 4.4% from the April low.
The improvement has been paced by strong monthly gains in shipments of
metals (-16.6% y/y), up 24.2% from the low. Machinery orders rose 2.0%
(-20.3% y/y) after touching the cycle low in October. Electrical
equipment orders rose 2.2% (-9.1% y/y), about as they did in October.
As was
suggested by the October data, the shedding of inventories of
durable manufactured goods seems to be ending after nearly a year of
correction. Durable goods inventories slipped 0.2% (-11.3% y/y) after
no change during October. Declines in inventories lowered the ratio to
shipments to its lowest since October of last year.. Unfilled orders
fell another 0.7% (-10.9% y/y) led by declines in the transportation
sector. Less transportation backlogs rose 0.1% (-11.4% y/y) for the
second gain in three months.
The durable goods figures are available
in Haver's USECON database.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">NAICS Classification
</a>(%)</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>-7.8</td>
<td>-5.8</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>6.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Excluding Transportation</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>-0.7</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>-6.9</td>
<td>-1.2</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>9.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>-1.9</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>-11.1</td>
<td>-6.8</td>
<td>3.5</td>
<td>9.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>-2.0</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>-10.2</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>-2.7</td>
<td>10.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

</body></html>

Despite only a modest rise in November durable goods orders, the trend has improved sharply. Durable goods orders rose 0.2% last month after an unrevised 0.6% October decline. The latest increase lifted orders 5.4% above the March low [...]

Rate of U.S. GDP Decline Slows in Q2 2009

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091224d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The jobs
market resumed its recent trend toward improvement. The Labor
Department reported that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell
to 452,000 from an unrevised 480,000 during the prior week. Claims now
stand at the lowest level since the first week of September 2008 and
were down from the recession peak of 674,000 hit in March. The
four-week moving average of claims also fell to a new low of 465,250.
The latest weekly figure was lower than Consensus expectations for
470,000 claims.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during
the latest week fell 127,000 after an upwardly revised 40,000 gain
during the prior week. Continuing claims were at the lowest level since
February. The overall decline is a function of the improved job market
but also reflects the exhaustion of 26 weeks of unemployment benefits.
Continuing claims provide an indication of workers' ability to find
employment. The four-week average of continuing claims fell to
5,233,000. This series dates back to 1966.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091224e.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Extended
benefits for unemployment insurance dropped sharply to 393,956 during
the first week of December. The latest was down from the peak during
last month of 597,688.
The insured rate of unemployment remained
stable at 3.9%, the lowest level since February. The rate reached a
high of 5.2% during late-June. During the last ten years, there has
been a 93% correlation between the level of the insured unemployment
rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics.&nbsp;
p&gt;<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091224f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The highest insured unemployment rates in
the week ending December 5 were in&nbsp; Puerto Rico (6.4%), Oregon
(5.9), Pennsylvania (5.6), Wisconsin (5.6), Alaska (5.5), Nevada (5.2),
Michigan (4.9), California (4.9) and South Carolina (4.7). The lowest
insured unemployment rates were in North Dakota (1.7%), Virginia (2.0),
Texas (2.5), Wyoming (3.0), Maine (3.3), Maryland (3.4), Mississippi
(3.4), Florida (3.5), New York (3.7) and Ohio (3.7). The data are not
seasonally adjusted but the overall insured unemployment rate is.
The
unemployment insurance claims data is available in Haver's WEEKLY
database and the state data is in the REGIONW
database.&nbsp;
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment
Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/19/09</th>
<th scope="col">12/12/09</th>
<th scope="col">12/05/09</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006&nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>452</td>
<td>480</td>
<td>475</td>
<td>-19.9%</td>
<td>420</td>
<td>321</td>
<td>313</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>5,076</td>
<td>5,203</td>
<td>17.2%</td>
<td>3,342</td>
<td>2,552</td>
<td>2,459</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Insured Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>3.3 (12/2008)</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>1.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</body></html>

The jobs market resumed its recent trend toward improvement. The Labor Department reported that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 452,000 from an unrevised 480,000 during the prior week. Claims now stand at the lowest [...]

U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fall Back To New Low

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091224d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">The jobs
market resumed its recent trend toward improvement. The Labor
Department reported that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell
to 452,000 from an unrevised 480,000 during the prior week. Claims now
stand at the lowest level since the first week of September 2008 and
were down from the recession peak of 674,000 hit in March. The
four-week moving average of claims also fell to a new low of 465,250.
The latest weekly figure was lower than Consensus expectations for
470,000 claims.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during
the latest week fell 127,000 after an upwardly revised 40,000 gain
during the prior week. Continuing claims were at the lowest level since
February. The overall decline is a function of the improved job market
but also reflects the exhaustion of 26 weeks of unemployment benefits.
Continuing claims provide an indication of workers' ability to find
employment. The four-week average of continuing claims fell to
5,233,000. This series dates back to 1966.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091224e.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Extended
benefits for unemployment insurance dropped sharply to 393,956 during
the first week of December. The latest was down from the peak during
last month of 597,688.
The insured rate of unemployment remained
stable at 3.9%, the lowest level since February. The rate reached a
high of 5.2% during late-June. During the last ten years, there has
been a 93% correlation between the level of the insured unemployment
rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics.&nbsp;
p&gt;<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091224f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The highest insured unemployment rates in
the week ending December 5 were in&nbsp; Puerto Rico (6.4%), Oregon
(5.9), Pennsylvania (5.6), Wisconsin (5.6), Alaska (5.5), Nevada (5.2),
Michigan (4.9), California (4.9) and South Carolina (4.7). The lowest
insured unemployment rates were in North Dakota (1.7%), Virginia (2.0),
Texas (2.5), Wyoming (3.0), Maine (3.3), Maryland (3.4), Mississippi
(3.4), Florida (3.5), New York (3.7) and Ohio (3.7). The data are not
seasonally adjusted but the overall insured unemployment rate is.
The
unemployment insurance claims data is available in Haver's WEEKLY
database and the state data is in the REGIONW
database.&nbsp;
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment
Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/19/09</th>
<th scope="col">12/12/09</th>
<th scope="col">12/05/09</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006&nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>452</td>
<td>480</td>
<td>475</td>
<td>-19.9%</td>
<td>420</td>
<td>321</td>
<td>313</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>5,076</td>
<td>5,203</td>
<td>17.2%</td>
<td>3,342</td>
<td>2,552</td>
<td>2,459</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Insured Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>3.3 (12/2008)</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>1.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Rate of U.S. GDP Decline Slows in
Q2 2009 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> December 24, 2009

<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091224a.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Despite
only
a modest rise in November durable goods orders, the trend has improved
sharply. Durable goods orders rose 0.2% last month after an unrevised
0.6% October decline. The latest increase lifted orders 5.4% above the
March low and the y/y decline of 7.8% compares with a peak 26.6%
decline last winter. A 0.5% November gain had been the Consensus
expectation.
A 5.5% (-10.9% y/y) decline in transportation equipment
orders in fact masked the degree of improvement in overall orders.
Transportation orders were pulled down by a 32.6% (-3.7% y/y) decline
in civilian aircraft. Excluding transportation altogether, orders rose
2.0% during November and have risen 7.3% from their April low.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091224b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Primary
metals orders also continued their recovery with a 1.4% November
increase (-7.3% y/y) and they have risen one-quarter from the March
low. Electrical equipment orders rose about as they did during October.
The 3.2% gain lifted orders 10.0% from the spring low. Orders for
computers &amp; related equipment also improved for the second
month by 1.6% during November. The increase lifted them 14.9% above
April's low. Finally, machinery orders increased 3.5% (-14.0% y/y),
made up half of the October decline and raised them 9.8% from the low.

The decline in aircraft bookings also masked improvement in other
capital goods orders. Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft
more than recovered the October slump with a 2.9% increase and they now
are 9.8% above the April low.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091224c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Shipments of durable goods ticked up
0.3% (-8.8% y/y) during November following increases in two of the
prior three months. Shipments now have risen 4.4% from the April low.
The improvement has been paced by strong monthly gains in shipments of
metals (-16.6% y/y), up 24.2% from the low. Machinery orders rose 2.0%
(-20.3% y/y) after touching the cycle low in October. Electrical
equipment orders rose 2.2% (-9.1% y/y), about as they did in October.
As was
suggested by the October data, the shedding of inventories of
durable manufactured goods seems to be ending after nearly a year of
correction. Durable goods inventories slipped 0.2% (-11.3% y/y) after
no change during October. Declines in inventories lowered the ratio to
shipments to its lowest since October of last year.. Unfilled orders
fell another 0.7% (-10.9% y/y) led by declines in the transportation
sector. Less transportation backlogs rose 0.1% (-11.4% y/y) for the
second gain in three months.
The durable goods figures are available
in Haver's USECON database.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">NAICS Classification
</a>(%)</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>-7.8</td>
<td>-5.8</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>6.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Excluding Transportation</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>-0.7</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>-6.9</td>
<td>-1.2</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>9.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>-1.9</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>-11.1</td>
<td>-6.8</td>
<td>3.5</td>
<td>9.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>-2.0</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>-10.2</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>-2.7</td>
<td>10.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

</body></html>

U.S. Initial Jobless InsuranceClaims Fall Back To New Low

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091223e.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Confidence rose again in December for Italian consumers making
the string of rises two months long. Still, the overall situation
deteriorated by one point to a -57 reading in December leaving the
current situation in the 68th percentile of its range. 

The outlook for the overall situation also backtracked
dropping by 5 points month to month. Unemployment expectations rose and
now reside on the top 5% of their range. 

The outlook for current savings backtracked but the outlook
for future savings rose sharply in the month. 

The current environment for major purchase was sharply better
with its index rising to -38 from -43 and moving up to the 59th
percentile of its range. 

Clearly the Italian consumer still feels pressured. The rise
in confidence is a good development despite backtracking in some key
components. 
 

Italy still has a long way to go to cement any notion of
stability. 


Italy ISAE Consumer Confidence
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Since Jan 1992&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Rank</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Dec-09</td>
<td>Nov-09</td>
<td>Oct-09</td>
<td>Sep-09</td>
<td>Percentile</td>
<td>Rank</td>
<td>percentile</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>113.7</td>
<td>112.8</td>
<td>111.7</td>
<td>113.6</td>
<td>60.1</td>
<td>76</td>
<td>64.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Last 12 months</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; OVERALL SITUATION</td>
<td>-57</td>
<td>-56</td>
<td>-58</td>
<td>-58</td>
<td>72.0</td>
<td>68</td>
<td>68.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; PRICE TRENDS</td>
<td>-41</td>
<td>-39</td>
<td>-40.5</td>
<td>-42</td>
<td>13.6</td>
<td>207</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Next 12months</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; OVERALL SITUATION</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>60.3</td>
<td>109</td>
<td>48.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; PRICE TRENDS</td>
<td>8.5</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>9.5</td>
<td>17.3</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>54.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; UNEMPLOYMENT</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>67.6</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>95.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; HOUSEHOLD BUDGET</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>17.8</td>
<td>199</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td colspan="4">HOUSEHOLD FIN SITUATION</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Last 12 months</td>
<td>-37</td>
<td>-36</td>
<td>-35</td>
<td>-33</td>
<td>38.8</td>
<td>129</td>
<td>39.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Next12 months</td>
<td>-3</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>65.3</td>
<td>102</td>
<td>52.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Current</td>
<td>73</td>
<td>77</td>
<td>79</td>
<td>80</td>
<td>88.3</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>97.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Future</td>
<td>-20</td>
<td>-29</td>
<td>-30</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>62.2</td>
<td>124</td>
<td>41.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">MAJOR Purchases</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Current</td>
<td>-38</td>
<td>-43</td>
<td>-38</td>
<td>-40</td>
<td>47.3</td>
<td>87</td>
<td>59.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td colspan="8">Total number of
months:&nbsp;&nbsp; 213</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Confidence rose again in December for Italian consumers making the string of rises two months long. Still, the overall situation deteriorated by one point to a -57 reading in December leaving the current situation in the 68th [...]

Italy's Consumer Confidence Lifts Spirits For Christmas Oh Come Ye Faithful...

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

Resilient US economy is pushing up longer-term inflation expectations and interest rates

Positive US economic data surprises leading to upward adjustment of interest rate expectations

Recent aggressive policy easing in China has given a massive boost to equity prices

FOMC expects much more easing now than in June

US is clear world leader in business capital spending on artificial intelligence

Blue Chip forecasters expect US to lead aggressive policy rate cuts over coming year—apart from Japan

Ratio of job openings to the number unemployed in the US now below pre-pandemic level

U.S. layoffs not showing as much cooling in labor markets as unemployment rate

While goods prices have moderated, service price inflation remains elevated and sticky

Since Jan 2023, BCEI US outlook has improved, worsened for Japan and the euro area

Persistent negative US economic surprises leading to big rate-cut expectations

Germany is Euro area weakling

Flash PMIs show good start to Q3 in US; loss of momentum in the euro area

Chinese economy on downtrend could threaten global economy

Working age population labor force participation near all-time high as retirements increase

Blue Chip forecasters look for widespread policy rate cuts just ahead

Flash June PMIs point to a widespread slowdown apart from the US

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

241211L4.jpg

241211M4.jpg

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% during November, up from four consecutive months of 0.2% gain. Expectations had been for a 0.2% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y increase picked up to 2.7% from 2.6% in October and was the quickest rise in four months. The three-month increase rose to 3.0% (AR) from 2.5% but remained below the 4.6% high in April of this year. Prices excluding food & energy rose an expected 0.3% for the fourth consecutive month. Core consumer prices increased 3.7% (AR) during the last three months, up from 1.6% in July, and 3.3% y/y. Food prices rose 0.4% last month (2.4% y/y) after a 0.2% gain while energy prices rose 0.2% (-3.2% y/y) after holding steady in October.

The CPI less food, energy and shelter, another measure of core pricing power, rose 0.3% after a 0.2% gain. The 2.2% y/y rise was increased from a July low of 1.7% but remained below the 7.6% y/y peak in February 2022. It compared to a low of 0.3% y/y in May 2020.

Services costs less energy rose a steady 0.3% in November (4.6% y/y). Shelter costs rose 0.3% following a 0.4% rise in October. Its 4.7% y/y rise compares to an 8.2% peak in March 2023. Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.2% (4.9% y/y), following a 0.4% rise and was the weakest increase since April 2021. Rents of primary residences rose a similarly depressed 0.2% (4.4% y/y) after two consecutive months of 0.3% rise, but the cost of lodging away from home surged 3.2% (3.7% y/y) following a 0.4% October gain. Transportation service prices held steady last month (+7.1% y/y) after rising 0.4% in October, as public transportation prices also were unchanged (2.9% y/y) after a 2.4% October surge. Medical care service costs rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) the same as in October. Education & communication prices eased 0.2% (+1.8% y/y) for the second straight month. Recreation services prices rose 0.7% (3.5% y/y), the same as in October.

During November, the CPI for goods less food & energy increased 0.3% (-0.6% y/y) after holding steady in October. Home furnishings prices rose 0.7% (-1.0% y/y), as appliance costs also rose 0.7% (-1.0% y/y).  Apparel costs rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y) after a 1.5% decline. Education & communication product costs fell 1.1% (-5.4% y/y) the same as in October while medical care product prices declined 0.1% (NSA, +0.4% y/y) in November. Prices for recreation products weakened 0.5% (-1.5% y/y), the fourth decline in five months. Transportation product prices rose 0.9% (-1.4% y/y) after improving 0.8%. New vehicle prices rose 0.6% (-0.7% y/y) after holding steady while used car & truck prices strengthened 2.0% (-3.4% y/y) after a 2.7% rise.

Food prices rose 0.4% (2.4% y/y) in November following a 0.2% October increase. Egg prices rebounded 8.2% (37.5% y/y) after a 6.4% decline. Meat, poultry & fish prices rebounded 1.1% (1.5% y/y) after falling 0.8% while cereal & bakery product prices weakened 1.1% (-0.5% y/y) after a 1.0% rise. Fruit & vegetable prices rose 0.2% (1.1	% y/y) after increasing 0.4%, while dairy prices eased 0.1% (+1.2% y/y) after rising 1.0% in October. Nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 1.5% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.4% October rise.

Energy prices rose 0.2% (-3.2% y/y) in November after holding steady in October. Gasoline prices rose 0.6	% (-8.1% y/y) after three straight monthly declines. Amongst other energy products, fuel oil & propane prices rose 0.4% (-10.7% y/y) after declining 2.2%. Electricity prices eased 0.4% (3.1% y/y) after a 1.2% gain, while natural gas prices jumped 1.0% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.3% October gain.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

241211N4.jpg

241211O4.jpg

- Food prices pick up.
- Services price gains remain steady.
- Core goods prices pick up.

U.S. CPI Picks Up Modestly in November; Core Prices Rise Steadily

241211F12.jpg

241211G12.jpg

The U.S. Treasury Department reported a U.S. government budget deficit of $624.2 billion budget deficit for the first two months of FY 2025 after a $380.6 billion deficit for the first two months of FY’24. For November alone, the government ran a budget deficit of $366.8 billion, which compared to a deficit of $314.0 billion twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $356.5 billion deficit in November.

Overall revenues this fiscal year so far declined 7.3% y/y as individual income tax receipts fell 11.6% y/y. The level of corporate tax receipts nearly halved y/y. Social insurance revenues increased 7.4% y/y and excise taxes increased 34.0% y/y in FY’25. Customs duties rose 6.1% y/y in the first two months of FY’15.

Federal government outlays increased 18.3% y/y in early FY’25 after a 16.7% rise early in FY’24. Defense spending rose 13.7% y/y, as it did early in FY’24. Social Security outlays rose 6.9% y/y after rising 12.0% y/y in FY’24. Interest payments rose 8.0% y/y in FY’25 after a 63.7% rise a year earlier. Health program spending rose 12.0% y/y after holding steady early in FY’24 while Medicare payments doubled y/y. Income security outlays rose 31.8% y/y compared to a 15.1% y/y decline in the first two months of FY’24.

Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.


241211H12.jpg

241211I12.jpg

- Personal income tax receipts weaken.
- Corporate tax payments roughly halve y/y.
- Social Security spending fuels outlay growth.

U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens So Far in FY 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

241211A5.jpg

241211B5.jpg

Mortgage applications in the week ended December 6 increased 5.4% (15.9% y/y) after rising 2.8% (18.1% y/y) in the week ended November 29. Applications for loans to purchase a house dropped 4.1% (+3.5% y/y) in the December 6 week, after a rise of 5.6% (11.8% y/y) in the November 29 week, while applications to refinance a loan surged 27.2% (42.2% y/y) in the latest week after declining 0.6% (+33.5% y/y) the week before. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey and the amounts quoted here are seasonally adjusted.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan was 6.86% in the week ended December 6, down slightly from 6.89% in the November 29 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped 50bps to 5.96% in the latest week from 6.46% in the November 29 week, still higher than 5.84% in mid-September. The rate on a 30-year jumbo loan was 6.94% in the week ended December 6, down slightly from 6.96% in the November 29 week, but slightly higher than 6.90% in mid-October.

The share of applications to refinance an existing mortgage was 46.8% in the December 6 week, sharply higher than the 38.7% share in the November 29 week. The largest share in recent months was 55.7% the week of September 20. The share of applications for ARMs was 5.3% in the latest week, down from 6.0% in the November 29 week. The last time the share was 5.3% was in the week ended February 25, 2022.

The average loan size in the December 6 week was $368,200, down 2.5% from $377,600 in the November 29 week, and up 3.6% from a year ago. The average size of an application for a loan to purchase a house was $416,200 in December 6 week, down from $431,900 in the week before, while the average size of an application to refinance an existing loan increased to $313,600 in the latest week from $291,500 in the November 29 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications to purchase a house drop, while applications to refinance surge.
- Slight decrease in rates on 30-year fixed-rate loans.
- Average loan size decreases modestly.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rise in the December 6 Week

241210N1.jpg

241210O1.jpg

U.S. nonfarm business productivity (output per hour) increased an unrevised 2.2% (SAAR) during Q3’24 after a 2.1% rise in Q2 and a 0.7% Q1 gain. The figure matched expectations in the Action Economics Survey. The 2.0% y/y increase remained below its 2.7% gain in 2023 (Q4/Q4) but was improved from a 1.4% decline in 2022. It also was greatly improved versus the 1.2% average between 2009 and 2019. Nonfarm business output increased 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after a 3.0% gain, revised from 3.5%, while hours-worked rose 1.2% (0.7% y/y) after increasing 0.9%.

Compensation growth slowed to 3.1% (4.3% y/y), revised from 4.2%, after a slightly revised 4.8% gain. As a result, unit labor costs grew 0.8% (2.2% y/y) last quarter, revised from 1.9% after a 1.1% decline, revised from a 2.4% increase. The Action Economics survey expected unit labor costs to rise 1.6% last quarter.

In the manufacturing sector, productivity in Q3 improved 0.9% (0.6% (y/y), revised from 1.0%, after rising a minimally changed 0.2% in Q2 and falling 0.7% in Q1. Compensation grew 2.6% (2.4% y/y), revised from 6.4%, following a 5.6% decline in Q2, revised from a 6.2% rise. Unit labor costs rose 1.7% (1.8% y/y), revised from 5.3%, after a 5.8% fall, revised from a 5.8% increase.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

241210P1.jpg

241210Q1.jpg

- Annual increase remains below last year’s gain.
- Compensation growth dips.
- Increase in unit labor costs slows.

U.S. Productivity Growth Is Steady & Unrevised in Q3’24

Winnie Tapasanun

241210T.jpg

241210U.jpg

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 101.7 in November, the seventh m/m rise in eight months and the highest level since June 2021, following a 2.2-point increase to 93.7 in October, according to the November 2024 Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. This was the first time in 35 months that the index was above the 50-year average of 98. The index was also up from its recent low of 88.5 in March 2024, 90.6 in November 2023, and a low of 89.0 in April 2023; nevertheless, having remained below a high of 102.5 in June 2021. Nine of the 10 index components rose, none fell, and one was unchanged. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index fell to 98 in November, the lowest level since August, from a record-high 110 in October; however, it was well above its recent low of 65 in November 2023 and a low of 55 in June 2022.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months turned positive in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve jumped to 36% in November, the sixth m/m rise in seven months and the highest level since June 2020, after a seven-point increase to -5% in October; it was significantly above a record low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales gained to a net 14% in November following a five-point rise to -4% in October, posting the highest level since February 2020. The latest reading was up from a low of -21% in May 2023 and a low of -29% in July 2022. A net -13% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up from -20% reported in October and registering the highest reading since June. The latest reading, however, was down from the most recent positive reading of 1% in May 2022 and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to make capital outlays rose to 28% in November from 22% in October, up from a low of 19% in September and a low of 19% in April 2023. The November number posted the highest reading since January 2022; nevertheless, having remained below a high of 31% in October 2021. Plans to expand the business advanced to 14% in November following a two-point increase to 6% in October; the latest figure, up from a low of 2% in March 2023, registered the best reading since a high of 15% in June 2021. Meanwhile, expected credit conditions edged up to -5% in November after a two-point increase to -6% in October; the latest number was slightly above its recent high of -6% in February 2024 but below a high of -4% in May 2022 and a high of -3% in November 2021.

On the labor front, labor markets remained relatively tight. Forty-eight percent of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in November, up from 46% in October. These numbers were below a high of 57% in September 2023, a high of 61% in May 2022, and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 18% planned to increase employment in November, up from 15% in October and 15% in September, but it was down from a high of 26% in May 2022 and a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 36% reported positions not able to be filled in November, up from 35% in October and registering the highest since August. These figures remained below a high of 51% in May 2022.

Overall earnings trends continued to improve in November while having remained in negative territory since December 2019. The figure increased to -26% in November, still a poor reading, following a one-point uptick to -33% in October; these numbers were below a high of -18% in March 2023.

On the pricing front, inflation pressures, while trending down, remained at an inflationary level. The net percent raising their average selling prices rose to 24% in November after a one-point decline to 21% in October; these numbers, however, were slightly down from 25% in November 2023 and well below a high of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices rose to 28% in November following a one-point increase to 26% in October; these figures were below 34% in November 2023 and a high of 52% in March 2022.

Wage inflation was still relatively high in the November survey. A net 32% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, slightly up from 31% reported in the October survey. However, it was down from a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 28% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, up from 23% reported in October and registering the highest reading since December 2023; nevertheless, having remained below a high of 30% in November 2023 and a high of 32% in October 2022.

Inflation continued to be an issue facing small businesses, as reported by 20% of NFIB members in November as the single most important problem. Registering the lowest reading since January 2024, the November figure was down from 23% in October and a peak of 37% in July 2022. The quality of labor was the second important concern with 19% in November, slightly down from 20% in October. Other concerns (in November vs. October) included taxes (14% vs. 16%), the cost of labor (11% vs 8%), and government requirements (8% vs. 8%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

241210V.jpg

241210W.jpg

- November NFIB Small Business Optimism Index up 8.0 pts. to 101.7.
- Uncertainty Index down 12 pts. to a three-month-low 98.
- Expectations for economy up 41 pts. to 36%, the highest since June ’20.
- Expected real sales up 18 pts. to 14%, the highest since February ’20.
- Inflation (20%) remains top business problem, followed by Quality of Labor (19%); both slightly down from October.

Economy in Brief: 2009

Jump to: