Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129f.jpg" width="353">
The National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising published by the Conference Board rose slightly to 37 in October but has been moving sideways since 2Q 2003.
The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume, however, more than recovered the prior month&#39;s plunge and jumped to 71%, the highest level since May.
During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the year-to-year change in non-farm payrolls.
The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/CBDB/@C3/@C3.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Oct &#39;03</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">National Help Wanted Index</td>
<td>37</td>
<td>36</td>
<td>36</td>
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</tbody>
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The National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising published by the Conference Board rose slightly to 37 in October but has been moving sideways since 2Q 2003. The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume, however, more than [...]

Help-Wanted Advertising Up Slightly

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129e.jpg" width="353">
Mortgage applications plunged 5.7% last week for the second sharp w/w decline this month, but the average level of activity so far in November still was up 3.1% from October according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Purchase applications again fell sharply by 3.5%. Though the November average was up versus October, the latest weekly level was the lowest in the last four. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Applications to refinance skid 8.3% w/w leaving the November average up 2.4% versus October.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell to 5.92%. It averaged 5.92% in October. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also fell to 5.39%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/19/04</th>
<th scope="col">11/12/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>715.0</td>
<td>758.3</td>
<td>-7.8%</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
<td>625.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>463.3</td>
<td>480.3</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
<td>304.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>2,179.3</td>
<td>2,375.4</td>
<td>-16.6%</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
<td>2,491.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Mortgage applications plunged 5.7% last week for the second sharp w/w decline this month, but the average level of activity so far in November still was up 3.1% from October according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). [...]

Mortgage Applications Plunged

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129d.jpg" width="353">
Last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 12,000 to 323,000 from a little revised 335,000 the prior week. The Consensus expectation had been for 335,000 claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 332,000 (-9.7% y/y), the lowest level since November 2000.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 29,000 following a downwardly revised 24,000 drop the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.2% for the seventh week.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/20/04</th>
<th scope="col">11/13/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>323</td>
<td>335</td>
<td>-10.8%</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
<td>406</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,755</td>
<td>-18.1%</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
<td>3,018</td>
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</tbody>
</table>
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Last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 12,000 to 323,000 from a little revised 335,000 the prior week. The Consensus expectation had been for 335,000 claims. The four week moving average of initial claims fell to [...]

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fell Unexpectedly

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129c.jpg" width="353">
Durable goods orders fell 0.4% in October led lower by declines in orders for motor vehicles and capital goods. A 0.5% gain in orders had been the Consensus expectation.
Nondefense capital goods orders dropped 3.3% as orders for computers &amp; electronic products were dragged 5.7% (+3.7% y/y) lower by a 10.3% (+7.0% y/y) decline in orders for computers. Electrical equipment &amp; appliance orders also were down by 3.5% (+2.2% y/y), the second consecutive monthly decline.
Transportation equipment orders rose 0.3% but the gain was wholly due to a 35.2% (-17.2% y/y) spurt in defense aircraft. Motor vehicle &amp; parts orders fell 2.8% (-3.2% y/y) and nondefense aircraft orders fell 0.4% (-1.6% y/y) following huge declines during the prior two months. Durable goods orders less transportation fell 0.7% (+9.6% y/y).
Orders for machinery were again quite strong logging a 3.7% m/m gain (+24.7% y/y). fabricated metals orders also rose by 3.1% (+13.1% Y/Y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129b.jpg" width="353">
Unfilled orders rose 0.6% (8.6% y/y) but the ratio of backlogs to shipments fell.
Inventories of durable goods 0.5% (6.5% y/y). The inventory to shipment ratio was about stable at 1.39, up from the low of 1.35 in March but well down from the highs near 1.7 in 2001.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM">NAICS Classification</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>-10.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
<td>-15.5%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>-3.6%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>-7.1%</td>
<td>-12.9%</td>
</tr>
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Durable goods orders fell 0.4% in October led lower by declines in orders for motor vehicles and capital goods. A 0.5% gain in orders had been the Consensus expectation. Nondefense capital goods orders dropped 3.3% as orders for [...]

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fell

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129a.jpg" width="353">
Sales of new single-family homes edged 0.2% higher in October to 1.226M following a 7.0% September gain that was double the initial indication. Consensus estimates had been for a decline in sales to 1.200M. 
Sales were mixed m/m around the country. In the Northeast sales rose sharply for the third straight month but were down 3.4% y/y. In the West sales also rose sharply for the third consecutive month and were nearly a third higher than last October. To the downside were sales in the South by 9.1% (-4.9% Y/Y) and sales in the Midwest were off 3.6% (+8.4% y/y).
The median price of a new single family home jumped 9.1% m/m to $221,800 (14.3% y/y), near the record high.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E904/@E90401/@E90401.HTM">Homes Sales (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Single-Family</td>
<td>1,226</td>
<td>1,224</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>1,089</td>
<td>976</td>
<td>907</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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</html>

Sales of new single-family homes edged 0.2% higher in October to 1.226M following a 7.0% September gain that was double the initial indication. Consensus estimates had been for a decline in sales to 1.200M. Sales were mixed m/m around [...]

New Home Sales Higher Still

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129a.jpg" width="353">
Sales of new single-family homes edged 0.2% higher in October to 1.226M following a 7.0% September gain that was double the initial indication. Consensus estimates had been for a decline in sales to 1.200M. 
Sales were mixed m/m around the country. In the Northeast sales rose sharply for the third straight month but were down 3.4% y/y. In the West sales also rose sharply for the third consecutive month and were nearly a third higher than last October. To the downside were sales in the South by 9.1% (-4.9% Y/Y) and sales in the Midwest were off 3.6% (+8.4% y/y).
The median price of a new single family home jumped 9.1% m/m to $221,800 (14.3% y/y), near the record high.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E904/@E90401/@E90401.HTM">Homes Sales (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Single-Family</td>
<td>1,226</td>
<td>1,224</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>1,089</td>
<td>976</td>
<td>907</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fell 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 24, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129c.jpg" width="353">
Durable goods orders fell 0.4% in October led lower by declines in orders for motor vehicles and capital goods. A 0.5% gain in orders had been the Consensus expectation.
Nondefense capital goods orders dropped 3.3% as orders for computers &amp; electronic products were dragged 5.7% (+3.7% y/y) lower by a 10.3% (+7.0% y/y) decline in orders for computers. Electrical equipment &amp; appliance orders also were down by 3.5% (+2.2% y/y), the second consecutive monthly decline.
Transportation equipment orders rose 0.3% but the gain was wholly due to a 35.2% (-17.2% y/y) spurt in defense aircraft. Motor vehicle &amp; parts orders fell 2.8% (-3.2% y/y) and nondefense aircraft orders fell 0.4% (-1.6% y/y) following huge declines during the prior two months. Durable goods orders less transportation fell 0.7% (+9.6% y/y).
Orders for machinery were again quite strong logging a 3.7% m/m gain (+24.7% y/y). fabricated metals orders also rose by 3.1% (+13.1% Y/Y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129b.jpg" width="353">
Unfilled orders rose 0.6% (8.6% y/y) but the ratio of backlogs to shipments fell.
Inventories of durable goods 0.5% (6.5% y/y). The inventory to shipment ratio was about stable at 1.39, up from the low of 1.35 in March but well down from the highs near 1.7 in 2001.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM">NAICS Classification</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>-10.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
<td>-15.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>-3.6%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>-7.1%</td>
<td>-12.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fell Unexpectedly 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 24, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129d.jpg" width="353">
Last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 12,000 to 323,000 from a little revised 335,000 the prior week. The Consensus expectation had been for 335,000 claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 332,000 (-9.7% y/y), the lowest level since November 2000.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 29,000 following a downwardly revised 24,000 drop the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.2% for the seventh week.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/20/04</th>
<th scope="col">11/13/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>323</td>
<td>335</td>
<td>-10.8%</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
<td>406</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,755</td>
<td>-18.1%</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
<td>3,018</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Mortgage Applications Plunged 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 24, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129e.jpg" width="353">
Mortgage applications plunged 5.7% last week for the second sharp w/w decline this month, but the average level of activity so far in November still was up 3.1% from October according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Purchase applications again fell sharply by 3.5%. Though the November average was up versus October, the latest weekly level was the lowest in the last four. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Applications to refinance skid 8.3% w/w leaving the November average up 2.4% versus October.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell to 5.92%. It averaged 5.92% in October. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also fell to 5.39%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/19/04</th>
<th scope="col">11/12/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>715.0</td>
<td>758.3</td>
<td>-7.8%</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
<td>625.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>463.3</td>
<td>480.3</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
<td>304.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>2,179.3</td>
<td>2,375.4</td>
<td>-16.6%</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
<td>2,491.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Help-Wanted Advertising Up Slightly 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 24, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129f.jpg" width="353">
The National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising published by the Conference Board rose slightly to 37 in October but has been moving sideways since 2Q 2003.
The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume, however, more than recovered the prior month&#39;s plunge and jumped to 71%, the highest level since May.
During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the year-to-year change in non-farm payrolls.
The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/CBDB/@C3/@C3.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Oct &#39;03</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">National Help Wanted Index</td>
<td>37</td>
<td>36</td>
<td>36</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Faded Late Month 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 24, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129j.jpg" width="353">
Though the November reading of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan rose to 92.8, that was lower than the mid-month reading of 95.5 and indicated that Sentiment faded as the month progressed. Consensus expectations for a reading of 96.0 were disappointed.
During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.
The consumer expectations index rose 1.7% m/m (-3.3% y/y) and the current economic conditions index rose 0.7% (2.1% y/y), both off from the mid-month pace
Consumer sentiment amongst families earning more than $50,000 per year rose m/m but was down 2.0% y/y. Sentiment amongst families earning less than $50,000 per year fell m/m and fell 1.3% y/y.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
&quot;Consumer Sentiment and the Media&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2004/el2004-29.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM">University of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>92.8</td>
<td>91.7</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>87.6</td>
<td>89.6</td>
<td>89.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Current Conditions</td>
<td>104.7</td>
<td>104.0</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>97.2</td>
<td>97.5</td>
<td>100.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Consumer Expectations</td>
<td>85.2</td>
<td>83.8</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>81.4</td>
<td>84.6</td>
<td>82.3</td>
</tr>
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Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041124a.jpg" width="353">
In the five weeks since we have written about the US energy market, prices have eased somewhat. Gasoline, at $2.03/gallon retail in mid-October, has fallen back below $2.00 the past two weeks. Crude oil peaked at $55.23/barrel on October 25, measured by West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, and dipped &quot;as low as&quot; $46.12 on November 16. Yesterday, November 23, it had retraced part of the drop, trading at $48.75.
Back in the spring, we wrote about some energy market fundamentals that have contributed to these extraordinary price levels. Over the past 30 years, most energy price spikes have been supply-driven. Oil-producing countries have controlled production in order to push prices higher in the contemporary demand environment. This episode seems different, we noted back in May, in that it looks to be more demand-oriented.
We illustrate this in the current situation with two graphs. In the first, the trend in demand for energy products over the last 15 years is seen to be positively correlated with the trend in crude oil prices. At 59%, the correlation is not numerically exacting, but it shows that demand and prices are moving fairly well in parallel, not in opposite directions that classical supply/demand economics would suggest.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041124b.jpg" width="353">
The second graph gives a strong reason for the push in demand and in prices. It highlights the link between light truck sales and gasoline prices. Since the mid-1990s, sales of light trucks, mostly SUVs, have grown both absolutely and in relation to conventional car sales. The resulting ratio of truck to auto sales is seen to have a 75% correlation with retail gasoline prices. This truck/car ratio actually has a 99% correlation with gasoline demand. Thus, the American &quot;love affair&quot; with the large vehicle, which was constrained by the initial energy crisis in the mid-1970s, has returned with the next generation of drivers. Energy prices, moving in more open markets in recent years, have responded to the consequent sharp rise in gasoline consumption. We see in the graph that very recently, the share of truck sales has decreased. If this move becomes a trend, some pressure on the general energy market could be relieved.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D306.HTM">Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/22/04</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/03</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline, Regular ($/Gal.)</td>
<td>$1.948</td>
<td>$1.48</td>
<td>28.8%</td>
<td>$1.56</td>
<td>$1.35</td>
<td>$1.42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate ($/Barrel)</td>
<td>$48.75</td>
<td>$32.55</td>
<td>64.3%</td>
<td>$32.78</td>
<td>$31.23</td>
<td>$19.38</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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In the five weeks since we have written about the US energy market, prices have eased somewhat. Gasoline, at $2.03/gallon retail in mid-October, has fallen back below $2.00 the past two weeks. Crude oil peaked at $55.23/barrel on [...]

SUV Demand Drives Up Energy Prices?

Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041123f.jpg" width="353">
Chile reported today that real GDP was up 6.84% over a year ago, compared with a 5.26% rise in the second quarter and a 4.65% rise in the first quarter. Earlier this month, Mexico and Peru reported third quarter growth near 5%. Brazil and Argentina both of which showed good second quarter growth, have yet to report third quarter figures. Brazil is recovering from last year&#39;s slump while Argentina has been coming out of the steep recession that occurred in 2001-2 . The contrast between steady growth path of Chile&#39;s economy and the erratic path of Argentina is shown in the attached chart.
Chile&#39;s growth in the third quarter was broad based, with all sectors showing good growth. Fixed capital spending was up 14% while other domestic spending was up almost 7%. Although exports of good and services were 15% above those of he third quarter of 2003, imports increased even more to 20%. Nevertheless, Chile maintained a positive balance of trade in goods and services of 203.1 billion Chilean Pesos.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Year-to-Year % Change in Real GDP (Not seasonally adjusted)</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 O4</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 04&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;Q1 04&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp; Q4 03&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 O3</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 03&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;Q1 03&nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Chile</td>
<td>6.84</td>
<td>5.26</td>
<td>4.65</td>
<td>3.27</td>
<td>3.12</td>
<td>3.02</td>
<td>3.65</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Argentina</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>7.0</td>
<td>11.3</td>
<td>11.7</td>
<td>10.2</td>
<td>7.7</td>
<td>5.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Brazil</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>5.71</td>
<td>2.67</td>
<td>-0.06</td>
<td>-1.48</td>
<td>-1.07</td>
<td>1.86</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Mexico</td>
<td>4.42</td>
<td>3.94</td>
<td>3.73</td>
<td>1.99</td>
<td>0.61</td>
<td>0.11</td>
<td>2.53</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Peru</td>
<td>4.78</td>
<td>3.59</td>
<td>4.944</td>
<td>2.94</td>
<td>3.04</td>
<td>3.56</td>
<td>5.67</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Chile reported today that real GDP was up 6.84% over a year ago, compared with a 5.26% rise in the second quarter and a 4.65% rise in the first quarter. Earlier this month, Mexico and Peru reported third quarter growth near 5%. Brazil [...]

Chile Reports Third Quarter Growth of Almost 7%

Sticky services prices behind sticky overall PCE inflation

Flash April PMIs point to slower growth in the US but a pickup in Europe and Japan

Outlook strengthens for US while it weakens for other major economies

Crude petroleum prices are having a big impact on inflation expectations

Inflation surprising to upside in the US; by contrast to the downside in the euro area

 Gross Domestic Income is catching up with GDP

FOMC expects GDP growth above trend over the next three years

US core CPI inflation has begun to reaccelerate

Fiscal-policy aided factory building in the U.S. provided an unusually large boost to growth last year

US consumers much more optimistic than those in the Euro area and the UK

  Job openings take a step down in 2024

Fed's super core services inflation measure pushing up core rate

Blue Chip forecasters expect significant monetary easing this year except in Japan

Euro area economy stagnating while US grows above trend

Chinese and Japanese equity markets are diverging markedly

Chinese population declines in 2023 for second consecutive year

Outlook for US GDP growth on the rise; declining in euro area, Japan and China

There are still 1.4 job openings for every unemployed person in the US

US PCE inflation over the past six months has slowed to the Fed's 2% target

FOMC think rate hikes are done and looks for 75bps of decline in 2024

Weaker economic data surprises pushing down US interest rates

Recent disinflation has been widespread across Europe and North America

Recent decline in US inflation expectations helping to lower interest rates

China is losing its luster as foreign direct investment heads out

Blue Chip forecasters think Fed will be tighter for longer

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The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) eased 0.1% (+2.7% y/y) during the four weeks ended May 3, 2024, after exhibiting strength since December. The index remained 20.1 % below the cycle peak in the second week of March 2022. During most of that period of time, U.S. factory output has been little changed.

Prices in the miscellaneous group fell 4.9% during the last four weeks and weakened 0.7% y/y. Plywood prices fell 14.4% and by 4.8% y/y. The cost of natural rubber fell 11.2% in four weeks but rose by nearly one-third y/y.

Textile group prices declined 2.5% (-0.7% y/y) in the latest four weeks but had been rising since their low in the second week of November. Cotton prices decreased 15.7% (-9.3% y/y) in the last four weeks but the cost of burlap rose 1.8% (8.0% y/y) in four weeks.

Prices in the crude oil & benzene group weakened 2.1% (+6.8% y/y) in the last four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 4.2% in four weeks to $81.28 per barrel, up 11.5% y/y. Prices hit a low of $70.42 in the third week of December. The cost of the petro-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, declined 2.7% (+13.4% y/y) in four weeks. Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index rose 0.2% (2.1% y/y) in the latest four-week period.

Offsetting these declines, metals group prices increased 9.8% (7.9% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Zinc prices rose 17.6% (8.7% y/y) while tin prices improved 15.1% in four weeks, up 20.4% y/y. Copper scrap prices increased 10.4% (15.2% y/y) in the last four weeks and aluminum prices improved 9.6%, rising9.0% y/y. Lead prices improved 8.2% (0.9% y/y) in four weeks while the cost of steel scrap rose 0.3% (-4.2% y/y).

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

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- Lumber & rubber costs have fallen sharply. 
- Cotton prices show protracted decline. 
- Crude oil prices weaken for three weeks.
- Metals price increase, paced by zinc and tin.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Slip in Latest Four Weeks

Robert Brusca

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April readings for the S&P total or composite PMI survey show mixed performance in April with more countries showing deterioration month-to-month than showing improvement, but with the average reading in April higher than the average reading in March. That makes it a bit of a standoff in terms of trying to assess the performance of the survey. More countries are doing worse but on average countries are doing better.

These tendencies are provided without any weighting for the country’s GDP size; that's another caveat. Looking at the United States, the European Monetary Union, and the EMU’s four largest members as though they are all separate and independent observations (which they are not) shows two worsening was in April with the same relative results in March; February shows only one worsening and five improving.  Those are certainly good statistics and good news since these are large economies carrying a large weight in terms of their contribution to world output.

In Asia, Japan, and China show different performance with China improving month-to-month in February, March, and April but with Japan worsening month-to-month in April and February but improving in March.

Turning to sequential data that look at averages and changes over three months, six months and 12 months, we find the highly developed European and the U.S. readings all improving over three months; however, four of six of those readings deteriorate over six months compared to 12 months. Three deteriorate and three improve on balance over 12 months compared to the average ending 12 months ago.

We also assess the performance of these countries by looking at their PMIs in a queue of ranked data since January 2020. In that queue, Italy and Spain have 70th percentile standings, above their historic medians (medians occur at a ranking of 50%) along with the European Monetary Union with a 53.1 percentile ranking. However, the United States has a 36.7 percentile ranking, Germany, a 40.8 percentile ranking, and France, a 46.9 percentile ranking; that leaves us with three readings above their median and three below for the full period assessment.

Over the entire sample, the averages from February to March to April cluster in a very tight range from 52.0 to 52.5; the median lies in a range of 51.3 to 52.7. Over those three months, there are 4 of the countries in the survey below a reading of 50 which means they're contracting in April. Six are contracting, in March and six are contracting in February. The averaged data show improvements from three-, six-, and 12-months. On those metrics, nine countries contract over three months, 11 contract over six months, and 11 contract over 12 months.

Turning to statistics on acceleration, we find that 52% of countries are slowing in April but only 44% in March and only 32% in February. The averages are fairly stable; there are deteriorating circumstances in terms of the proportion of countries showing readings below the month before and on a month-to-month basis. Looking at the sequential data for three months compared to six-months, six months compared to 12 months, and 12 months compared to 12-months ago, the percentage of countries slowing steadily diminishes from nearly 70% over 12 months to 56.5% over six months to 30.4% over three months. The broad picture shows less slowing while the monthly picture shows that there may be more slowing creeping into the process.

The average queue standing, which positions these countries in their queue of data since January 2020, is at 51.6%. Across our sample of 25 countries, 12 of them show readings below their respective 50th percentile rankings. This gives us a sense that across the sample based on the ranking data and the average of the PMI data statistics are hovering close to the median for the period. However, this is comparison over a four-year period that has seen a good deal of contraction in play.

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On balance, the sense of improvement in this sample is not very strong. There is some progress evident; however, there's still obviously widespread weakness that permeates this system so it's hard to look at the month's data as anything special based upon the composite PMIs. Services sectors show a moderate trend for improvement monthly although stability across the averages from three-, to six-, to 12-months is most evident for services. The services queue percentiles are still relatively robust with an average standing in their 65th percentile. Manufacturing sectors are generally doing worse with an average percentile standing at their 47th percentile, below their medians and with a median diffusion reading slightly below fifty at 49.8 in April.

Goods and services sectors continue to perform in different fashion; the goods sector, the internationally traded sector, continues to be under more pressure. Of course, inflation statistics have improved but if the U.S. is setting the lead for inflation performance, that performance has stalled and there's evidence of inflation progress slowing in other places. This will be something that we will want to watch because it will bear importantly on how central banks perform and what they do in the future.

PMI Composite Readings Improve Slightly Amid Cross-currents

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Nonfarm payrolls increased 175,000 (1.8% y/y) in April after rising 315,000 in March, revised from 303,000, and 236,000 in February, revised from 270,000. Expectations had been for a 250,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month average change of 242,000 is the slowest since December of	 last year.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% in April after an unrevised 0.3% March gain and a 0.1% uptick in February, revised from 0.2%. The 3.9% y/y earnings increase remains below the 5.9% high in March 2022. It is the weakest rise since June 2021.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, rose to 3.9% and reversed its decline to 3.8% in March. An unchanged 3.8% had been expected. Household employment rose 25,000 after increasing 498,000 in March. The labor force rose 87,000 after a 469,000 March gain. The overall unemployment rate, including workers who were marginally attached & working part-time for economic reasons edged up to 7.4%. It was the highest rate since November 2021.

In the **payroll survey**, private-sector employment increased 167,000 (1.7% y/y) in April after rising 243,000 in March. Construction sector employment increased 9,000 (3.3% y/y) last month following a 40,000 March gain. Factory sector jobs rose 8,000 (0.1% y/y) after falling 4,000. Mining & logging sector jobs fell 3,000 (+0.3% y/y) during April after rising 3,000 in March.

Private service-producing sector employment improved 153,000 in April (1.7% y/y) after a 204,000 March rise. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Education & health service jobs rose 95,000 (4.3% y/y) after rising 88,000 in March while leisure & hospitality employment rose 5,000 (2.3% y/y) after a 53,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities employment gained 52,000 (0.7% y/y) after rising 31,000 while financial activities jobs rose 6,000 (0.5% y/y) after rising 5,000 in March. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-1.4% y/y) following a 4,000 gain and professional & business service jobs decreased 4,000 (0.5% y/y) after a 10,000 March rise. Within that category, the number of temporary jobs fell 16,400 (-6.0% y/y) and have fallen consistently since a March 2022 high.

Government sector payrolls improved a negligible 8,000 last month (2.8% y/y) after increasing 72,000 in March. Local government jobs held steady (2.4% y/y) after rising 51,000 in March and state government employment rose 6,000 (3.7% y/y) after an 11,000 gain. The number of federal government jobs increased 2,000 (2.9% y/y) following a 10,000 rise.

The 0.2% rise in private-sector average hourly earnings reflected a 0.2% gain (5.1% y/y) in the goods-producing sector which followed a 0.6% improvement in March. Earnings in construction strengthened 0.6% (5.2% y/y) while factory sector earnings eased 0.1% (+4.8% y/y). In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.2% last month (3.7% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Information sector earnings edged 0.1% higher (3.4% y/y) following a 0.4% improvement. Financial sector earnings increased 0.4% (6.0% y/y) for the third straight month. Private education & health services earnings rose slightly (2.8% y/y) after holding steady in March. Trade, transportation and utilities pay rose 0.1% (3.4% y/y) in April after a 0.2% rise.

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The length of the average workweek in the private sector eased to 34.3 hours in April after rising to 34.4 hours in March. The workweek in the goods-producing sector fell to 39.7 hours, down from a five-month high of 39.9 hours in March. The construction sector average workweek fell to 38.7 hours from 39.3. The factory sector workweek held steady at 40.0 hours for the third straight month while the average workweek in the private service sector was 33.3 hours, also for the third consecutive month. The aggregate weekly hours index in the private sector, a key indicator of production and income, eased 0.1% in April (1.7% y/y) after rising 0.4% in both of the prior two months.

In the **household survey**, the jobless rate climbed to 3.9% as the size of the labor force rose more quickly than employment. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.7%. The rate for teenagers declined to 37.6%, while for individuals aged 20-24 it rose to 72.4%. For rate for workers aged 25-54, it edged higher to 83.5% but for workers 55 and over, it fell slightly to 38.4 hours.

The employment/population ratio for all workers slipped to 60.2% in April, standing slightly below where it was twelve months earlier. It remained below its high of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Job increase slows to weakest in just over one year.
- Earnings increase moderates.
- Jobless rate moves up as employment increase is negligible.

U.S. Payroll Employment & Wage Growth Moderate in April; Jobless Rate Edges Up

Andrew Cates

**Consensus interest rate forecasts**
Despite heightened concerns about the potential for lower US interest rates in the coming months, recent forecasts still show a broad consensus that an easing cycle will unfold in the period ahead across most major economies. The latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey, for instance, indicates that policy rate reductions of approximately 100 basis points are anticipated from the Fed over the next 12 months. Additionally, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to implement cumulative cuts of 166 and 111 basis points, respectively, during the same timeframe. In contrast, Japan is expected to see further rate hikes, specifically an increase of 17 basis points over the year ahead.

240502Z1.jpg

**US data surprises and 2 year bond yields**
The anxiety in financial markets about the Fed’s scope to lower interest rates can be largely traced to the US economy’s resilience – and its tight labour market in particular – together with sticky inflation. The former, however, namely economic resilience, has arguably being challenged in recent days by some, though by no means all, US data releases. These include, for example, a weaker-than expected consumer confidence report and ISM survey of manufacturing. Citigroup’s US growth surprise index has, against that backdrop, turned sharply lower.

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**US and euro area data surprises versus the euro**
A corresponding trend has also unfolded in the FX market. While US data have been a little more disappointing this contrasts with euro area data, which have been more resilient. Yet, thanks to still-firm US/Europe yield differentials, the US dollar has remained fairly resilient versus the euro (see chart 3).

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**Japan’s economy**
This week’s disappointing retail sales data from Japan could call into question the scope for further policy rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the coming months. Retail sales specifically slowed to 1.2% y/y in March from 4.7% in February. That slowdown, moreover, was broadly-based, with reduced sales activity seen across various product categories.

240502Z4.jpg

**Airport traffic in China**
The latest monthly dataflow from China have been a little more upbeat but that was not the message from this week’s official PMI surveys for April. Other less widely monitored data are also yielding sobering messages about the current economic environment. For instance, while aircraft movements at Beijing Airport have risen from their low points, they still remain well below pre-COVID pandemic levels (see chart 5). Similarly, specific data on cargo volumes and passenger traffic lead to the same conclusion.

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**Global warming and water levels**
Finally, on more structural matters, climate change continues to generate profound shifts in the economic landscape, influencing everything from agricultural productivity to energy markets and global supply chains. One manifestation of these shifts is low water levels in many areas and for example, in the Panama Canal. More specifically Gatun Lake has seen prolonged drought conditions, exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon and broader climate change anomalies. The drought has resulted in lower-than-average rainfall and delayed rainy seasons, leading to reduced water availability not only for canal operations but also for over half of Panama's population relying on this water source. To that supply chain point above, the canal has also had to reduce the number of ships it can accommodate per day.

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Lingering concerns about the US Fed's inclination to lower interest rates in coming months have continued to unsettle financial markets over the past few days. That said, comments from Fed Chair Powell after this week’s FOMC meeting have calmed some of those nerves. In our charts this week we delve into the latest Blue Chip consensus on policy rates across the world’s major economies (chart 1). We also compare market expectations for US policy rates, inferred from 2-year Treasury yields, with a trend toward more negative US data surprises in recent days (chart 2). In addition we contrast that more negative US growth trend with the relative resilience of the euro area dataflow and some recent downward pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate (chart 3). Turning to Asia, we assess Japan's economy with a focus on some recent disappointing retail sales data (chart 4), and provide insights into China's economic activity through aircraft movements at Beijing Airport (chart 5). Finally, and with a nod to climate change and its impact, we look at reduced water levels on the Panama Canal and how these contrast with above-average land and sea temperatures over the past few years (chart 6).

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Charts of the Week: Policy Surprises Versus Data Surprises

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) of $69.4 billion in March compared to a $69.5 billion in February, revised from $68.9 billion, and an unrevised $67.6 billion in January, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit remained nearly the largest since April 2023 which was $72.2 billion. A $69.1 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports fell 2.0% and were roughly unchanged y/y, reversing a 2.2% February rise. Imports declined 1.6% (+3.1% y/y) in March, following three straight months of moderate gain.

The deficit in goods trade (BOP basis) increased to $92.5 billion in March from $91.7 billion in February. Goods exports fell 2.9% (-2.8% y/y) after rising 2.8% in February. Imports of goods declined 1.6% (+2.5% y/y) following three straight monthly increases. The services trade surplus increased to $23.1 billion in March from $22.2 billion in February but remained down from a peak surplus of $25.2 billion last August. Services exports eased 0.2% (+6.0% y/y) following four consecutive monthly increases. Services imports declined 1.7% (+5.4% y/y) after rising 4.7% in February.

The real (inflation-adjusted) goods trade deficit (customs value; chained 2017 dollars), widened to $88.6 billion in March, the largest deficit since April of last year, from $87.4 billion in February. Real exports of goods declined 3.2% (-0.7% y/y) after rising 2.0% in February. Real imports of goods fell 1.5% (+2.5% y/y) after three straight monthly increases. In the first quarter of this year, a widening of the trade deficit (net exports) subtracted 0.86 percentage points from GDP growth after adding 0.25 percentage points to growth in Q4 2023.

The customs value goods trade deficit widened to $91.5 billion in March from $90.5 billion in February. The latest figure compared to a $91.8 billion deficit in the advance report released on April 25. Customs value exports fell 3.0% (-1.7% y/y) in March after a 2.8% February increase. Automotive vehicles, parts & engines rose 0.6% (-1.7% y/y) while nonfood consumer goods excluding autos declined 1.8% (-5.1% y/y). Capital goods exports excluding autos weakened 3.7% (+3.1% y/y) while exports of industrial supplies & materials fell 3.0% (-4.1% y/y). Foods, feeds & beverages exports were off 8.2% (-1.5% y/y).

Customs value imports of goods declined 1.6% (+2.6% y/y) in March after increasing for three straight months. Automotive vehicles, parts & engines imports fell 11.1% (+6.1% y/y) while capital goods imports excluding autos rose 0.1% (7.4% y/y). Foods, feeds & beverage imports declined 3.5% (+5.2% y/y). Imports of industrial supplies & materials fell 2.9% (-7.0% y/y) but nonfood consumer goods excluding autos rose 4.8% (4.1% y/y). Meanwhile, petroleum imports declined 2.5% and were unchanged y/y in March, following a 1.6% February rise. Nonpetroleum imports weakened 1.5% (+2.8% y/y) following three straight monthly increases.

The rise in services exports reflected a 0.7% increase (12.4% y/y) in personal, cultural & recreational services and a 1.3% decline (+24.9% y/y) in travel services exports. Exports of construction services declined 1.3% (+2.6% y/y) while government goods & services exports declined 0.9% (-23.0% y/y). The increase in services imports was due to construction services imports which rose 1.0% (35.1% y/y) but travel services imports fell 2.6% (+21.7% y/y). Imports of transport services declined 5.8% (-0.1% y/y) while charges for the use of intellectual property eased 0.1% (+3.2 y/y) in March.

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China widened to a seasonally adjusted $24.1 billion in March from $21.9 billion in February. Exports fell 3.6% (-10.3% y/y) while imports rose 4.8% (unchanged y/y). The goods trade deficit with the European Union deepened to $19.5 billion from $17.6 billion in February as exports fell 3.4% (-6.4% y/y), off for the third straight month, and imports rose 1.8% (4.2% y/y). The trade deficit with Japan narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $5.3 billion in March after narrowing to $6.2 billion in the previous month. Exports declined 1.9% (+3.0% y/y) while imports fell 8.7% (-2.2% y/y).

The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Exports and imports both fall.
- Adjusted for inflation, goods trade deficit increases to eleven-month high.
- Goods trade deficits with China & Europe deepen.

Economy in Brief: November 2004

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