Economy in Brief: May 2018

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending sales of existing homes fell 1.3% (-2.1% y/y) in April to an index level of 106.4 (2001=100). It was the third month of decline and left the index at the lowest level [...]

The most noticeable thing about this month’s jump in the HICP is that it is abrupt everywhere. Inflation this month owes a good deal of its jump to hopping-hot oil prices. While the ECB headline rate at 1.9% must be construed as at [...]

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer rebounded sharply in May, with the index reaching 62.7 following readings near 57.5 in March and April. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had anticipated only a modest rise to [...]

Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.6% during April (4.7% y/y) following a 0.5% March rise, revised from 0.4%. It was the strongest monthly increase since November. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics [...]

Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 221,000 (-12.6% y/y) during the week ended May 26 following an increase to 234,000 during the prior week, which was not revised. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey were [...]

Retail gasoline prices rose to $2.96 per gallon last week (23.1% y/y) from $2.92 per gallon during the prior week. It was the highest price level since November 2014. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal [...]

U.S. economic growth slowed a bit more than initially estimated in Q1'18. Real gross domestic product grew at a 2.2% annual rate, revised from 2.3% estimated initially. The rise followed 2.9% growth during Q4'17. A 2.3% increase had [...]

Suddenly, the euro area is in turmoil. At the turn of the year, just about every investment manager was touting Europe as the place to be: give your portfolio a European vacation! There would be recovery. It already was looking [...]