Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020131a.jpg" width="353">
The employment cost index rose as expected last quarter. The quarterly report was virtually identical in substance to the 3Q report: higher unemployment rates have constrained growth in wages and benefits although increases in benefit costs remain elevated.
Compensation gains in service sector occupations have steadily accelerated since 1999 while gains in blue collar compensation have slowed over the last year. 
Growth in ECI compensation and average hourly earnings have converged.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">ECI- Private Industry Workers</th>
<th scope="col">4Q`01</th>
<th scope="col">3Q `01</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Compensation</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wages &amp; Salaries</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Benefit Costs</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Personal Income Rose, Spending Down Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 31, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020131b.jpg" width="353">
Personal income rose for the first time since August and by slightly more than expected. 
A 0.6% gain in wage &amp; salary disbursements led the rise in income, though it too was the first material gain since the summer.
Personal spending fell for the third month in four again reflecting lower sales of light vehicles. Nondurable PCE also fell for the third month in four and services spending rose moderately 
Disposable income rose a modest 0.3%. The annual gain of 3.1% has more than halved since last year. Gains in real DPI also have halved to 2.0% 
The PCE price deflator fell for the third month in four. The price deflator less food and energy was unchanged (1.6% y/y).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Disposition of Personal Income</th>
<th scope="col">Dec &#39;01</th>
<th scope="col">Nov &#39;01</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Personal Income</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Personal Consumption</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Savings Rate</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">PCE Price Deflator</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Rose 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 31, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020131c.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose a bit more than expected in the latest week. The prior week&#39;s level was revised down.
Despite the rise in weekly claims, the four-week moving average fell to 386,000, its lowest level since mid-August.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose slightly in the latest week, but the prior week&#39;s level was revised to show a 4.7% drop versus the 1.5% decline reported initially.
The insured rate of unemployment was unchanged at 2.6%. The prior week&#39;s level was revised down.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</th>
<th scope="col">01/26/02</th>
<th scope="col">01/19/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>390.0</td>
<td>360.0</td>
<td>11.4%</td>
<td>408.0</td>
<td>302.8</td>
<td>297.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,382</td>
<td>44.1%</td>
<td>3,031</td>
<td>2,127</td>
<td>2,187</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Chicago PM Index Rose Sharply 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 31, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020131d.jpg" width="353">
The Chicago Purchasing Manager&#146;s Index of Business activity jumped as expected. The historical seasonally adjusted data was recently revised. 
Indexes of new orders and production rose sharply, but employment fell to a record low. 
The prices paid index fell and the index of vendor delivery speed rose only slightly, both indicating little inflationary pressure. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA</th>
<th scope="col">Jan &#39;02</th>
<th scope="col">Dec &#39;01</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Business Barometer</td>
<td>45.1</td>
<td>41.5</td>
<td>41.7</td>
<td>41.4</td>
<td>51.8</td>
<td>56.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid</td>
<td>40.7</td>
<td>47.0</td>
<td>62.6</td>
<td>50.6</td>
<td>65.6</td>
<td>57.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The employment cost index rose as expected last quarter. The quarterly report was virtually identical in substance to the 3Q report: higher unemployment rates have constrained growth in wages and benefits although increases in benefit [...]

Employment Cost Index Gains Capped by Higher Unemployment

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<img align="left" border="0" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020130.jpg">
GDP unexpectedly rose last quarter due to a decline in the price deflator, the first decrease in nearly 50 years. 
Price decline and/or weakness was widespread. Only prices in the residential investment (3.0%) and personal consumption (0.8%) categories rose. Elsewhere prices fell. Nonresidential fixed investment: -1.8%. Exports: -3.2%. Government: -0.7%.
Strength in inflation-adjusted PCE (5.3%) led the surge in real final domestic demand. Real government spending also surged led by higher defense spending. Elsewhere, demand fell with both residential and business fixed investment down sharply. 
The rate of inventory decumulation by far set a record, nearly doubling versus 3Q. As a percentage of GDP the rate of decumulation was a third higher than the prior peak set in 4Q82. 
The net export deficit unexpectedly deteriorated due to a sharp drop in exports.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Chained &#39;96 $, % AR</th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;01 (Advance)</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;01</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Final Sales</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Trade Effect</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Final Demand</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chained GDP Price Deflator</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 30, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020130b.jpg" width="353">
The Federal Reserve left the Federal Funds Target Rate unchanged at 1.75%, as expected. 
The press release, which accompanied the Fed&#146;s action, contained the following statement. &quot;Signs that weakness in demand is abating and economic activity is beginning to firm have become more prevalent.&quot;
The complete text of the Fed&#39;s latest press release can be viewed <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/general/2002/20020130/default.htm">here</a>.

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GDP unexpectedly rose last quarter due to a decline in the price deflator, the first decrease in nearly 50 years. Price decline and/or weakness was widespread. Only prices in the residential investment (3.0%) and personal consumption [...]

Unexpected Rise in Real GDP

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020129a.jpg" width="353">
Durable goods orders rose a bit more than expected last month, but it was off a November level that was revised sharply lower due to lowered figures in the transportation sector. 
Excluding transportation, durable orders rose 1.4% after rising 0.7% (revised slightly lower) in November. 
The sharp improvement in the ISM orders component bodes well for further improvement in durable goods orders. The five-year correlation between this index and the month-to-month change in durable orders ex. transportation is a significant 19%, but it rises to 28% when orders are lagged one month. 
Orders for nondefense capital goods rose for the third consecutive month led by the third monthly gain in the computers and electronics category (mostly semiconductors). 
Shipments rose slightly, but excluding transportation have yet to show meaningful improvement, down in all but two months of 2001.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">NAICS Classification</th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
<td>-14.0%</td>
<td>-12.8%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>-26.7%</td>
<td>-17.0%</td>
<td>14.4%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Weekly Chain Store Sales Up Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 29, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020129b.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales rose 0.2% in the last full week of January. Sales have risen in five of the last six weeks. 
For the first four weeks of January sales were up 2.2% versus December. 
During the last five years there has been a 26% correlation between the month-to-month percent change in chain store sales and the change in retail sales at general merchandise stores.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</th>
<th scope="col">1/26/02</th>
<th scope="col">1/19/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>401.0</td>
<td>400.0</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Consumer Confidence Surged 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 29, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020129c.jpg" width="353">
The Conference Board&#146;s Index of Consumer Confidence rose slightly more than expected in January. December&#39;s level was revised up. 
The rise in the Conference Board measure was in-line with the mid-month University of Michigan reading that consumer sentiment had improved. 
The rise in confidence reflected a sharply higher reading for consumer expectations. Confidence regarding the present situation was unchanged. A rise in expectations also powered the Michigan index. 
The Conference Board&#39;s survey is conducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Conference Board</th>
<th scope="col">Jan &#39;02</th>
<th scope="col">Dec &#39;01</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>97.3</td>
<td>94.6</td>
<td>-15.9%</td>
<td>106.6</td>
<td>139.0</td>
<td>135.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Durable goods orders rose a bit more than expected last month, but it was off a November level that was revised sharply lower due to lowered figures in the transportation sector. Excluding transportation, durable orders rose 1.4% [...]

Durable Goods Orders Firm

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020128.jpg" width="353">
Sales of new single family homes were slightly stronger than expected last month. Consensus estimates were for sales at a 920,000 annual rate.
November&#39;s sales were revised down from 934,000 reported last month. For the year, new home sales set a record, far surpassing the previous record set in 1977.
Sales fell in each of country&#39;s regions except the West. 
The median price of a new home rose sharply to $170,200, 5.1% y/y. November&#39;s figures were revised up 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Homes Sales (000s, AR)</th>
<th scope="col">Dec &#39;01</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;Nov &#39;01</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Single-Family</td>
<td>946</td>
<td>895</td>
<td>-5.5%</td>
<td>901</td>
<td>881</td>
<td>879</td>
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Sales of new single family homes were slightly stronger than expected last month. Consensus estimates were for sales at a 920,000 annual rate. November's sales were revised down from 934,000 reported last month. For the year, new home [...]

New Home Sales Set a Record in 2001

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020125.jpg" width="353">
Sales of existing single family homes edged lower last month from a November level that was revised slightly higher. The slight December decline had been expected
Home sales, which reflect closings on past sales, were mixed across the country&#146;s four regions. 
The average rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage was 7.07% last month, its highest level since July.
The median price of an existing single-family home jumped to $151,400 (8.4% y/y). 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Existing Home Sales (000, AR)</th>
<th scope="col">Dec &#39;01</th>
<th scope="col">Nov &#39;01</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Existing Single-Family</td>
<td>&nbsp;5,190</td>
<td>&nbsp;5,230</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>5,248</td>
<td>5,123</td>
<td>5,194</td>
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Sales of existing single family homes edged lower last month from a November level that was revised slightly higher. The slight December decline had been expected Home sales, which reflect closings on past sales, were mixed across the [...]

Existing Homes Sales Down Slightly

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020124.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance again fell unexpectedly in the latest week. The prior week&#39;s level was revised up slightly.
The decline in weekly claims pulled the four-week moving average to 404,250, its lowest level since late-August.
Despite the distortions common to the claims figures this time of year, the downtrend confirms genuine labor market improvement.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance dropped another 1.5%, though the prior week&#39;s level was revised higher. Continuing claims have fallen 13.3% since the mid-November peak.
The insured rate of unemployment was unchanged at 2.7%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</th>
<th scope="col">01/19/02</th>
<th scope="col">01/12/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>376.0</td>
<td>391.0</td>
<td>20.9%</td>
<td>408.0</td>
<td>302.8</td>
<td>297.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,458</td>
<td>49.1%</td>
<td>3,031</td>
<td>2,127</td>
<td>2,187</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Initial claims for unemployment insurance again fell unexpectedly in the latest week. The prior week's level was revised up slightly. The decline in weekly claims pulled the four-week moving average to 404,250, its lowest level since [...]

Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Continue Downtrend

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020123b.jpg" width="353">
The US budget balance improved to surplus in December due to a seasonal surge in revenues. The fiscal year-to-date budget deficit nevertheless remained at it&#39;s deepest since 1998. 
Receipts rose sharply in most major categories with individual income tax receipts actually up versus last year. Corporate income tax receipts were down 28.1% versus last year. 
Expenditures were down versus November due to across-the-board declines amongst categories. 
The Congressional Budget Office today announced that it expects a $21B budget deficit for FY 2002 and a $14B deficit in 2003.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">US Government Finance</th>
<th scope="col">Dec &#39;01</th>
<th scope="col">Nov &#39;01</th>
<th scope="col">Fiscal YTD</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Budget Balance</td>
<td>$26.6B</td>
<td>$-54.3B</td>
<td>$-37.1B</td>
<td>$127.2B</td>
<td>$236.9B</td>
<td>$124.4B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Revenues</td>
<td>55.0%</td>
<td>-22.9%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Outlays</td>
<td>-8.1%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Weekly Chain Store Sales Up Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 23, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020123a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales rose 0.7% in the latest week, building on a 0.6% gain during the prior week. For the first three weeks of January sales were up 2.0% versus December. 
The results were encouraging and an improved tone to sales is confirmed by the Redbook Store sales figures. 
During the last five years there has been a 56% correlation between the annual percent change in chain store sales and retail sales at general merchandise stores.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</th>
<th scope="col">01/19/02</th>
<th scope="col">01/12/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>400.0</td>
<td>397.4</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The US budget balance improved to surplus in December due to a seasonal surge in revenues. The fiscal year-to-date budget deficit nevertheless remained at it's deepest since 1998. Receipts rose sharply in most major categories with [...]

U.S. Budget Deficit Growing

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The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose quite a bit more than the expected 0.7% last month. November&#39;s rise was revised up. 
Eight of the ten component series contributed to the increase with large contributions coming from lower claims for jobless insurance, a longer workweek, the money supply and a steeper yield curve. 
Over a six-month span, the percentage of the leading index component series that are up rose to 40%. 
The Leading Index is based on eight previously reported economic data series and two that are estimated.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Business Cycle Indicators</th>
<th scope="col">Dec &#39;01</th>
<th scope="col">Nov &#39;01</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Leading</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Coincident</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Lagging</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-4.4%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose quite a bit more than the expected 0.7% last month. November's rise was revised up. Eight of the ten component series contributed to the increase with large contributions coming [...]

Leading Indicators Rise, One of the Strongest in 20 Years

Sticky services prices behind sticky overall PCE inflation

Flash April PMIs point to slower growth in the US but a pickup in Europe and Japan

Outlook strengthens for US while it weakens for other major economies

Crude petroleum prices are having a big impact on inflation expectations

Inflation surprising to upside in the US; by contrast to the downside in the euro area

 Gross Domestic Income is catching up with GDP

FOMC expects GDP growth above trend over the next three years

US core CPI inflation has begun to reaccelerate

Fiscal-policy aided factory building in the U.S. provided an unusually large boost to growth last year

US consumers much more optimistic than those in the Euro area and the UK

  Job openings take a step down in 2024

Fed's super core services inflation measure pushing up core rate

Blue Chip forecasters expect significant monetary easing this year except in Japan

Euro area economy stagnating while US grows above trend

Chinese and Japanese equity markets are diverging markedly

Chinese population declines in 2023 for second consecutive year

Outlook for US GDP growth on the rise; declining in euro area, Japan and China

There are still 1.4 job openings for every unemployed person in the US

US PCE inflation over the past six months has slowed to the Fed's 2% target

FOMC think rate hikes are done and looks for 75bps of decline in 2024

Weaker economic data surprises pushing down US interest rates

Recent disinflation has been widespread across Europe and North America

Recent decline in US inflation expectations helping to lower interest rates

China is losing its luster as foreign direct investment heads out

Blue Chip forecasters think Fed will be tighter for longer

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Nonfarm payrolls increased 175,000 (1.8% y/y) in April after rising 315,000 in March, revised from 303,000, and 236,000 in February, revised from 270,000. Expectations had been for a 250,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month average change of 242,000 is the slowest since December of	 last year.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% in April after an unrevised 0.3% March gain and a 0.1% uptick in February, revised from 0.2%. The 3.9% y/y earnings increase remains below the 5.9% high in March 2022. It is the weakest rise since June 2021.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, rose to 3.9% and reversed its decline to 3.8% in March. An unchanged 3.8% had been expected. Household employment rose 25,000 after increasing 498,000 in March. The labor force rose 87,000 after a 469,000 March gain. The overall unemployment rate, including workers who were marginally attached & working part-time for economic reasons edged up to 7.4%. It was the highest rate since November 2021.

In the **payroll survey**, private-sector employment increased 167,000 (1.7% y/y) in April after rising 243,000 in March. Construction sector employment increased 9,000 (3.3% y/y) last month following a 40,000 March gain. Factory sector jobs rose 8,000 (0.1% y/y) after falling 4,000. Mining & logging sector jobs fell 3,000 (+0.3% y/y) during April after rising 3,000 in March.

Private service-producing sector employment improved 153,000 in April (1.7% y/y) after a 204,000 March rise. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Education & health service jobs rose 95,000 (4.3% y/y) after rising 88,000 in March while leisure & hospitality employment rose 5,000 (2.3% y/y) after a 53,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities employment gained 52,000 (0.7% y/y) after rising 31,000 while financial activities jobs rose 6,000 (0.5% y/y) after rising 5,000 in March. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-1.4% y/y) following a 4,000 gain and professional & business service jobs decreased 4,000 (0.5% y/y) after a 10,000 March rise. Within that category, the number of temporary jobs fell 16,400 (-6.0% y/y) and have fallen consistently since a March 2022 high.

Government sector payrolls improved a negligible 8,000 last month (2.8% y/y) after increasing 72,000 in March. Local government jobs held steady (2.4% y/y) after rising 51,000 in March and state government employment rose 6,000 (3.7% y/y) after an 11,000 gain. The number of federal government jobs increased 2,000 (2.9% y/y) following a 10,000 rise.

The 0.2% rise in private-sector average hourly earnings reflected a 0.2% gain (5.1% y/y) in the goods-producing sector which followed a 0.6% improvement in March. Earnings in construction strengthened 0.6% (5.2% y/y) while factory sector earnings eased 0.1% (+4.8% y/y). In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.2% last month (3.7% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Information sector earnings edged 0.1% higher (3.4% y/y) following a 0.4% improvement. Financial sector earnings increased 0.4% (6.0% y/y) for the third straight month. Private education & health services earnings rose slightly (2.8% y/y) after holding steady in March. Trade, transportation and utilities pay rose 0.1% (3.4% y/y) in April after a 0.2% rise.

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The length of the average workweek in the private sector eased to 34.3 hours in April after rising to 34.4 hours in March. The workweek in the goods-producing sector fell to 39.7 hours, down from a five-month high of 39.9 hours in March. The construction sector average workweek fell to 38.7 hours from 39.3. The factory sector workweek held steady at 40.0 hours for the third straight month while the average workweek in the private service sector was 33.3 hours, also for the third consecutive month. The aggregate weekly hours index in the private sector, a key indicator of production and income, eased 0.1% in April (1.7% y/y) after rising 0.4% in both of the prior two months.

In the **household survey**, the jobless rate climbed to 3.9% as the size of the labor force rose more quickly than employment. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.7%. The rate for teenagers declined to 37.6%, while for individuals aged 20-24 it rose to 72.4%. For rate for workers aged 25-54, it edged higher to 83.5% but for workers 55 and over, it fell slightly to 38.4 hours.

The employment/population ratio for all workers slipped to 60.2% in April, standing slightly below where it was twelve months earlier. It remained below its high of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Job increase slows to weakest in just over one year.
- Earnings increase moderates.
- Jobless rate moves up as employment increase is negligible.

U.S. Payroll Employment & Wage Growth Moderate in April; Jobless Rate Edges Up

Andrew Cates

**Consensus interest rate forecasts**
Despite heightened concerns about the potential for lower US interest rates in the coming months, recent forecasts still show a broad consensus that an easing cycle will unfold in the period ahead across most major economies. The latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey, for instance, indicates that policy rate reductions of approximately 100 basis points are anticipated from the Fed over the next 12 months. Additionally, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to implement cumulative cuts of 166 and 111 basis points, respectively, during the same timeframe. In contrast, Japan is expected to see further rate hikes, specifically an increase of 17 basis points over the year ahead.

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**US data surprises and 2 year bond yields**
The anxiety in financial markets about the Fed’s scope to lower interest rates can be largely traced to the US economy’s resilience – and its tight labour market in particular – together with sticky inflation. The former, however, namely economic resilience, has arguably being challenged in recent days by some, though by no means all, US data releases. These include, for example, a weaker-than expected consumer confidence report and ISM survey of manufacturing. Citigroup’s US growth surprise index has, against that backdrop, turned sharply lower.

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**US and euro area data surprises versus the euro**
A corresponding trend has also unfolded in the FX market. While US data have been a little more disappointing this contrasts with euro area data, which have been more resilient. Yet, thanks to still-firm US/Europe yield differentials, the US dollar has remained fairly resilient versus the euro (see chart 3).

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**Japan’s economy**
This week’s disappointing retail sales data from Japan could call into question the scope for further policy rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the coming months. Retail sales specifically slowed to 1.2% y/y in March from 4.7% in February. That slowdown, moreover, was broadly-based, with reduced sales activity seen across various product categories.

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**Airport traffic in China**
The latest monthly dataflow from China have been a little more upbeat but that was not the message from this week’s official PMI surveys for April. Other less widely monitored data are also yielding sobering messages about the current economic environment. For instance, while aircraft movements at Beijing Airport have risen from their low points, they still remain well below pre-COVID pandemic levels (see chart 5). Similarly, specific data on cargo volumes and passenger traffic lead to the same conclusion.

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**Global warming and water levels**
Finally, on more structural matters, climate change continues to generate profound shifts in the economic landscape, influencing everything from agricultural productivity to energy markets and global supply chains. One manifestation of these shifts is low water levels in many areas and for example, in the Panama Canal. More specifically Gatun Lake has seen prolonged drought conditions, exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon and broader climate change anomalies. The drought has resulted in lower-than-average rainfall and delayed rainy seasons, leading to reduced water availability not only for canal operations but also for over half of Panama's population relying on this water source. To that supply chain point above, the canal has also had to reduce the number of ships it can accommodate per day.

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Lingering concerns about the US Fed's inclination to lower interest rates in coming months have continued to unsettle financial markets over the past few days. That said, comments from Fed Chair Powell after this week’s FOMC meeting have calmed some of those nerves. In our charts this week we delve into the latest Blue Chip consensus on policy rates across the world’s major economies (chart 1). We also compare market expectations for US policy rates, inferred from 2-year Treasury yields, with a trend toward more negative US data surprises in recent days (chart 2). In addition we contrast that more negative US growth trend with the relative resilience of the euro area dataflow and some recent downward pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate (chart 3). Turning to Asia, we assess Japan's economy with a focus on some recent disappointing retail sales data (chart 4), and provide insights into China's economic activity through aircraft movements at Beijing Airport (chart 5). Finally, and with a nod to climate change and its impact, we look at reduced water levels on the Panama Canal and how these contrast with above-average land and sea temperatures over the past few years (chart 6).

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Charts of the Week: Policy Surprises Versus Data Surprises

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) of $69.4 billion in March compared to a $69.5 billion in February, revised from $68.9 billion, and an unrevised $67.6 billion in January, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit remained nearly the largest since April 2023 which was $72.2 billion. A $69.1 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports fell 2.0% and were roughly unchanged y/y, reversing a 2.2% February rise. Imports declined 1.6% (+3.1% y/y) in March, following three straight months of moderate gain.

The deficit in goods trade (BOP basis) increased to $92.5 billion in March from $91.7 billion in February. Goods exports fell 2.9% (-2.8% y/y) after rising 2.8% in February. Imports of goods declined 1.6% (+2.5% y/y) following three straight monthly increases. The services trade surplus increased to $23.1 billion in March from $22.2 billion in February but remained down from a peak surplus of $25.2 billion last August. Services exports eased 0.2% (+6.0% y/y) following four consecutive monthly increases. Services imports declined 1.7% (+5.4% y/y) after rising 4.7% in February.

The real (inflation-adjusted) goods trade deficit (customs value; chained 2017 dollars), widened to $88.6 billion in March, the largest deficit since April of last year, from $87.4 billion in February. Real exports of goods declined 3.2% (-0.7% y/y) after rising 2.0% in February. Real imports of goods fell 1.5% (+2.5% y/y) after three straight monthly increases. In the first quarter of this year, a widening of the trade deficit (net exports) subtracted 0.86 percentage points from GDP growth after adding 0.25 percentage points to growth in Q4 2023.

The customs value goods trade deficit widened to $91.5 billion in March from $90.5 billion in February. The latest figure compared to a $91.8 billion deficit in the advance report released on April 25. Customs value exports fell 3.0% (-1.7% y/y) in March after a 2.8% February increase. Automotive vehicles, parts & engines rose 0.6% (-1.7% y/y) while nonfood consumer goods excluding autos declined 1.8% (-5.1% y/y). Capital goods exports excluding autos weakened 3.7% (+3.1% y/y) while exports of industrial supplies & materials fell 3.0% (-4.1% y/y). Foods, feeds & beverages exports were off 8.2% (-1.5% y/y).

Customs value imports of goods declined 1.6% (+2.6% y/y) in March after increasing for three straight months. Automotive vehicles, parts & engines imports fell 11.1% (+6.1% y/y) while capital goods imports excluding autos rose 0.1% (7.4% y/y). Foods, feeds & beverage imports declined 3.5% (+5.2% y/y). Imports of industrial supplies & materials fell 2.9% (-7.0% y/y) but nonfood consumer goods excluding autos rose 4.8% (4.1% y/y). Meanwhile, petroleum imports declined 2.5% and were unchanged y/y in March, following a 1.6% February rise. Nonpetroleum imports weakened 1.5% (+2.8% y/y) following three straight monthly increases.

The rise in services exports reflected a 0.7% increase (12.4% y/y) in personal, cultural & recreational services and a 1.3% decline (+24.9% y/y) in travel services exports. Exports of construction services declined 1.3% (+2.6% y/y) while government goods & services exports declined 0.9% (-23.0% y/y). The increase in services imports was due to construction services imports which rose 1.0% (35.1% y/y) but travel services imports fell 2.6% (+21.7% y/y). Imports of transport services declined 5.8% (-0.1% y/y) while charges for the use of intellectual property eased 0.1% (+3.2 y/y) in March.

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China widened to a seasonally adjusted $24.1 billion in March from $21.9 billion in February. Exports fell 3.6% (-10.3% y/y) while imports rose 4.8% (unchanged y/y). The goods trade deficit with the European Union deepened to $19.5 billion from $17.6 billion in February as exports fell 3.4% (-6.4% y/y), off for the third straight month, and imports rose 1.8% (4.2% y/y). The trade deficit with Japan narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $5.3 billion in March after narrowing to $6.2 billion in the previous month. Exports declined 1.9% (+3.0% y/y) while imports fell 8.7% (-2.2% y/y).

The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Exports and imports both fall.
- Adjusted for inflation, goods trade deficit increases to eleven-month high.
- Goods trade deficits with China & Europe deepen.

U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens in March

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The Commerce Department reported that inventories in the factory sector remained unchanged (0.6% y/y) during March after a 0.2% February rise. Transportation equipment inventories held steady (6.9% y/y). Furniture inventories increased 0.3% (-4.4% y/y) while electrical equipment inventories dropped 0.4% (-0.5% y/y). Amongst nondurable goods industries, petroleum inventories were 0.5% higher (2.6% y/y) and plastics & rubber inventories rose 0.2% (-4.8% y/y). These changes were accompanied by a 0.5% rise (-1.7% y/y) in apparel. Basic chemical inventories were unchanged (-0.6% y/y) for a second consecutive month while paper product inventories gained 0.2% (-2.6% y/y).

Orders to all manufacturers improved 1.6% (1.7% y/y) in March following a 1.2% February rise. The gain was led by a 2.6% rise (1.2% y/y) in durable goods orders, as commercial aircraft surged 30.6% (-50.9% y/y) in. New orders excluding transportation gained 0.5% (1.6% y/y). Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) rose 0.6% (2.1% y/y). The rise reflected a 1.5% increase (4.9% y/y) in shipments from oil refineries and a 0.7% gain (2.1% y/y) in basic chemicals. Orders for textile products declined 1.4% (-1.7% y/y) and apparel orders fell 0.2% (-1.9% y/y). Orders for food products rose 0.2% (-0.3% y/y). Paper product shipments held steady (-2.0% y/y).

Unfilled orders improved 0.4% in March (9.1% y/y) and, excluding the transportation sector, they eased 0.1% (-0.9% y/y). Backlogs of electrical equipment slipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y). Unfilled orders in the machinery sector eased 0.3% (-3.9% y/y) and unfilled orders for transportation equipment rose 0.7% (15.5% y/y). Unfilled orders of furniture rose 0.6% (-5.6% y/) and fabricated metals backlogs were off 0.1%, unchanged y/y.

The factory sector figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database.

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- Inventories levels are flat.
- Order improvement led by aircraft.
- Unfilled orders rise.

U.S. Factory Inventories Hold Steady While Orders Rise in March

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Nonfarm business sector productivity increased 0.3% (SAAR) during Q1’24, following upwardly revised gains of 3.5% in Q4’23 and 4.6% in Q3’23. The rises in productivity were originally reported as being 3.4% in Q4 and 4.4% in Q3. Expectations had been for a 0.8% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. On a year-on-year comparison, Q1 productivity rose 2.9%, up from 2.7% in Q4 and 2.4% in Q3. The y/y gain was the quickest since 2020. Real value-added output rose 1.3% (SAAR) (3.2% y/y) in Q1 from a 3.8% (3.3% y/y) gain in Q4.

Hours-worked in the nonfarm business sector rose 1.0% (0.3% y/y) in Q1 from a 0.2% (0.6% y/y) rise in Q4. Nonfarm hourly compensation increased 5.0% (4.7% y/y) in Q1 from a 3.5% gain (5.2% y/y) in Q4. Adjusted for price inflation, real compensation per hour rose 1.1% (1.5% y/y) in Q1, following a 0.8% (1.9% y/y) rise in Q4.

Weaker productivity brought an acceleration in unit labor costs to 4.7% (1.8% y/y) in Q1 after a 0.0% (2.4%) rise in Q4. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for a 2.3% quarterly rise in unit labor costs.

In the manufacturing sector, real output per hour slowed to a rise of 0.2% (1.2% y/y) last quarter after a gain of 2.4% (0.9% y/y) in Q4. Manufacturing output was unchanged over the quarter (-0.1% y/y) after declining 1.0% (-0.2% y/y) in Q4. Hours-worked declined 0.2% (-1.3% y/y) in Q1 after a drop of 3.3% (-1.1% y/y) in Q4.

Compensation per hour in manufacturing slowed to a gain of 3.4% (6.3% y/y) last quarter following a rise of 6.8% (6.7% y/y) in Q4. Real compensation declined 0.4% (3.0% y/y) in Q1, after a rise of 4.0% (3.4% y/y) in Q4. Unit labor costs in manufacturing slowed to a rise of 3.2% (5.0% y/y) in Q1 following a gain of 4.2% (5.8% y/y) the prior quarter.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Productivity slows in Q1.
- Unit labor costs rise sharply.
- Slowdown in factory productivity and unit labor cost growth.

Economy in Brief: January 2002

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