Louise Curley

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In Europe and the Pacific Rim, increases in consumer spending have lagged behind increases in investment spending and net exports. The news, today, from Hong Kong in the Far East and Denmark in Europe is encouraging. In volume terms retail sales in November in Hong Kong were slightly, 0.19%, below October but were 7.72% above November, 2005. In Denmark retail sales rose 0.72% in October and were 4.03% above November, 2005. For the eleven months of this year retail sales in Hong Kong are up 6.8% in value terms and 5.2% in volume. Comparable figures for Denmark are 3.9% and 3.4%. The first chart compares the trend in the volume of retail sales in Hong Kong and Denmark, while the second chart compares the trends in the value of retail sales.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070102b.jpg" width="353">
The greater difference between the value indexes and the volume indexes is the largely the result of the different price trends in Hong Kong and Denmark. From late 1998 until mid 2004, Hong Kong experienced deflation, while Denmark experienced annual prices increases of about 2.5%. (See the third chart.)<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070102c.jpg" width="353">
The city state of Hong Kong and the country of Denmark are too small to be used as projectors of trends in broader areas--the Pacific Rim and European Union, but the news today is at least affirmative. Hong Kong has a population of 7.0 million and Denmark one of 5.4 million. In Euro terms Gross Domestic Product in Denmark is currently 56 billion euros while that of Hong Kong is 37 billion Euros.

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<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">RETAIL SALES&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Nov&nbsp; 06</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 06</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 05</th>
<th scope="col">M/M&nbsp;&nbsp; %</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y&nbsp;&nbsp; %</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">Jan-Nov06/ Jan-Nov05</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Hong Kong Value (2000=100)</td>
<td>110.2</td>
<td>109.3</td>
<td>102.3</td>
<td>0.82</td>
<td>7.72</td>
<td>101.3</td>
<td>94.9</td>
<td>85.6</td>
<td>6.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Denmark Value&nbsp; (2000=100)</td>
<td>129.2</td>
<td>128.0</td>
<td>124.2</td>
<td>0.94</td>
<td>4.03</td>
<td>122.9</td>
<td>116.4</td>
<td>112.3</td>
<td>3.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Hong Kong Volume (2000=100)</td>
<td>107.2</td>
<td>107.4</td>
<td>102.2</td>
<td>-0.19</td>
<td>4.89</td>
<td>101.5</td>
<td>95.4</td>
<td>87.5</td>
<td>5.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Denmark Volume (2000=100)</td>
<td>125.5</td>
<td>124.6</td>
<td>122.2</td>
<td>0.72</td>
<td>2.70</td>
<td>120.5</td>
<td>113.6</td>
<td>107.9</td>
<td>3.4</td>
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In Europe and the Pacific Rim, increases in consumer spending have lagged behind increases in investment spending and net exports. The news, today, from Hong Kong in the Far East and Denmark in Europe is encouraging. In volume terms [...]

Encouraging Trends in Retail Sales in Hong Kong and Denmark

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

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Michael J. Moran

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The Employment Cost Index rose at an annual rate of 3.0% in the final three months of 2025 (0.7% not annualized). The latest observation reinforced the deceleration that began in the latter part of 2022 and returned the change to the range in place before the pandemic - albeit the upper portion of that range.

Most of the deceleration occurred in the goods-producing sector, where the latest increase of 2.5% (annual rate) trailed the average of 3.9% in the prior three quarters. The service sector saw compensation growth of 3.1%, down from an average of 3.5% in the prior three quarters. The difference between the performances of goods and service is not surprising, as compensation growth in the goods-producing sector tends to be more volatile, and it has typically been softer in the past few years.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has argued recently that labor costs are not a driving force behind above-target inflation, and recent results on the employment cost index support this view. While the increase in compensation of 3.0% in Q4 is a percentage point above the Fed’s target, businesses can maintain profits without passing along the full extent of the increase. Productivity growth, which has been strong recently (average growth of 2.3% in the past eight quarters), can effectively offset compensation growth and dampen the inflation impulse.

The chart on the upper right shows quarterly growth in total compensation less the 8-quarter increase in productivity (the 8-quarter average smooths the high degree of volatility in productivity growth). This metric, which gives insight into the likely path of inflation, has been below 2.0% for the past 6 quarters, with the latest increase totaling less than 1.0%. (the chart ends in 2025-Q3 because productivity statistics for Q4 are not available).

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Total compensation in the ECI includes both wages and benefits. In the third quarter, both components rose by the same amount (0.7% quarter-to-quarter, or 3.0% at an annual rate). This balance is a shift from the pattern of recent years, when wages typically posted firmer growth. The advantage to wages in the past few years, in turn, represents a break from the more common tendency for benefits to grow at a faster pace.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

- Vigorous growth during the pandemic-related recovery gives way to moderate advances recently.
- Labor costs seem in line with the Fed’s inflation target.

Employment Cost Index: Continued Deceleration

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total retail sales were essentially flat m/m in December, falling short of expectations, following a 0.6% increase in November (unrevised) and a 0.2% decline in October (-0.1% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A 0.5% m/m December increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year growth rate decelerated to 2.4% in December, the lowest since September 2024, from 3.3% in November; this compared with 4.6% in December 2024 and remained far below a high of 17.1% in February 2022 and a record-high 51.8% in April 2021. For all of 2025, retail sales increased 4.0% after gains of 2.6% in 2024 and 3.5% in 2023.

Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales were virtually unchanged (3.3% y/y) in December after a 0.4% rise in November (+0.5% initially), which marked the sixth consecutive m/m gain. A 0.4% m/m December increase had been expected. Sales of motor vehicles & parts fell 0.2% (-1.1% y/y) following a 1.2% November rebound; this compared to a 2.8% rise (-4.2% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales after a 2.7% November increase.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, eased 0.1% (+3.4% y/y) in December, the first m/m decline since September, after a 0.2% increase in November. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts. Nonauto sales excluding gasoline & building materials dipped 0.1% (+3.6% y/y), also down for the first time since September, following a 0.3% November rise.

Sales by category showed mixed performance in December. To the downside, furniture & home furnishing store sales slid 0.9% (-5.6% y/y) in December, the fourth m/m slide in five months, after a 0.1% easing in November. Miscellaneous store sales fell 0.9% (+9.4% y/y), the first m/m fall since August, after a 1.3% November rise. Clothing & accessory store sales declined 0.7% (+5.1% y/y), the first m/m decrease in three months, reversing a 0.5% November increase. Electronics & appliance store sales fell 0.4% (+2.1% y/y) after rising 0.2% in November and October. General merchandise store sales slipped 0.1% (+1.2% y/y) for the second consecutive month in December; within this grouping, department store sales fell 0.7% (-0.3% y/y), the third m/m fall in four months, following a 3.1% November drop.

To the upside, building materials & garden equipment store sales climbed 1.2% (0.5% y/y) for the second successive month in December, the first m/m gain since August. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales rose 0.4% (6.0% y/y), the fifth m/m rise in six months, after a 0.9% November increase. Gasoline station sales grew 0.3% (1.6% y/y), the sixth m/m gain in seven months, on top of a 1.7% November rebound. Nonstore retail sales were up 0.1% (5.3% y/y) in December after virtually unchanged in November.

In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales fell 0.2% (+6.4% y/y) in December, down for the second time in three months, following a 0.3% increase in November. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y) after a 0.1% November dip.

Consumers appeared to dine out less frequently in December amid still-high inflation (December CPI +0.3% m/m, +2.7% y/y; core CPI +0.2% m/m, +2.6% y/y). Restaurant & drinking place sales eased 0.1% (+4.7% y/y) in December, the second m/m decline in three months, following an upwardly revised 0.7% rise in November (+0.6% initially).

Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- December total retail sales -0.02%, below expectations; +2.4% y/y, lowest since Sept. ’24.
- Ex-auto sales +0.02% (+3.3% y/y) after six straight m/m rises; auto sales -0.2% (-1.1% y/y).
- Declines m/m: furniture stores (-0.9%), misc. stores (-0.9%), clothing stores (-0.7%).
- Gains m/m: bldg. materials (+1.2%), sporting goods (+0.4%), gasoline stations (+0.3%).

U.S. Retail Sales Hold Steady in December Following November’s Rebound

Sandy Batten

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish a report on export and import prices for October because of the government shutdown, and BLS was unable to construct statistics for October. Therefore, the charts here have a gap for October between the September and the November and December values.

Import prices rose 0.1% m/m (unchanged y/y) in December from November, in line with the expectations of the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Since there was no value for October value, a monthly change for November could not be calculated. Import prices fell 0.1% y/y in November. Export prices rose 0.3% m/m in December. Again, a monthly change for November could not be calculated. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% monthly increase in December. The y/y reading fell to 3.1% in December from 3.2% in November.

Note that these indexes are not directly affected by tariffs because they measure the price of goods before taxes. Tariffs are considered taxes and thus are excluded from these calculations.

For imports, a 3.3% monthly decline in prices of imported petroleum and petroleum products restrained the rise in overall prices. Prices of nonpetroleum imports rose 0.4% m/m (1.0% y/y). Prices of imported food increased 0.5% m/m while prices of imported industrial supplies rose 0.4% m/m even with a 0.8% monthly decline in prices of fuels and lubricants. Prices of the remaining end-use categories were little changed in December. Given the recent weakness of the foreign exchange value of the dollar, there could be further upward pressure on nonpetroleum import prices in coming months.

For exports, prices of agricultural products 0.2% m/m (2.1% y/y) in December following a 0.9% m/m jump in November. Prices of nonagricultural exports increased 0.3% m/m in December. A monthly change could not be calculated for November. The y/y rate slowed to 3.1% in December from 3.3%. Exported food prices rose 0.4% m/m, down from a 1.1% monthly jump in November. Prices of exported industrial supplies also increased 0.4% m/m in December. Prices of exported consumer goods excluding autos jumped 0.8% m/m in December, their largest monthly increase since January 2023.

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Import prices rose 0.1% m/m in December, in line with expectations.
- The December increase reflected a 0.2% monthly gain in non-fuel import prices and a 0.8% m/m decline in fuel prices.
- Export prices rose 0.3% m/m against expectations of a 0.1% m/m increase. Both agricultural and nonagricultural prices rose in December.


U.S. Import and Export Prices Rise in December

Tian Yong Woon

In our Letter this week, we explore Asia in two parts. The first reviews key developments from the past week, focusing on snap election outcomes in Japan (chart 1) and Thailand (chart 2), both of which delivered victories for incumbent parties and helped reduce near-term political uncertainty.

The second, and larger, section builds on last week’s discussion of Asia and AI, shifting the focus to AI’s potential impact on the region from an end-user perspective. On the upside, Asia stands to benefit meaningfully from the eventual large-scale adoption of AI-powered robotics, reflecting the region’s relatively high share of manufacturing value added (chart 3). That said, important considerations remain, including the cost viability of transitioning towards humanoid robotics given the sizeable upfront capital expenditure involved. Beyond manufacturing, AI adoption could also deliver gains in healthcare, particularly as many Asian economies grapple with ageing populations—implying a growing care burden alongside a shrinking domestic caregiver base (chart 4). However, regulatory, ethical, and implementation challenges persist. 

At the same time, the AI transition will likely displace certain jobs, making this a race not only of adoption but of adaptability, where education—while an imperfect proxy—offers some insight into which economies may be better positioned to adjust (chart 5). Finally, bureaucratic frictions also matter (chart 6), although even traditionally more bureaucratic economies have begun introducing fast-track frameworks to avoid falling behind in what could prove to be a pivotal transition reshaping the regional, and potentially global, economic landscape.

**Japan’s snap election**
Following a snap election held on Sunday, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a historic landslide victory, winning a more than two-thirds majority in Japan’s 456-seat Lower House. The LDP’s coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, also expanded its presence to 36 seats. The outcome suggests that Takaichi’s political gamble to capitalise on strong opinion polling has paid off. While the election result has removed a key source of near-term political uncertainty for Japan, attention now turns to the policy agenda enabled by the government’s newly strengthened mandate. Among the first expected moves, Takaichi appears set to proceed with a temporary food tax pause, reducing the 8% consumption tax on food to 0% for two years. This proposal reinforces the perception that her policy stance is fiscally accommodative, even as critics raise concerns around fiscal discipline and long-term sustainability. As for the market reaction, Japanese equities rallied on stimulus expectations, bond yields rose on prospects of increased issuance to fund higher spending, while the yen recorded only muted net moves (chart 1)—prompting some speculation that some intervention may have taken place.

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**Thailand’s snap election**
Thailand also held snap elections last Sunday, which saw the incumbent deliver a strong showing at the polls. Unlike Japan’s election outcome, however, the scale of the increase in the incumbent Bhumjaithai (BJT) Party’s parliamentary footprint came as a surprise to many observers. That said, despite these sizable gains, the BJT Party fell short of an outright majority, securing 193 of the 500 seats in parliament, implying that a coalition government will likely still be required to pass legislation smoothly. Thai equities and the baht nevertheless rallied on the election results (chart 2). Attention now turns to whether—and how—Prime Minister Anutin will follow through on key campaign promises, including the revival of a popular shopping subsidy programme. While such measures would provide a near-term boost to consumption, they would also raise concerns around fiscal sustainability. Beyond the parliamentary vote, Thai voters also approved a proposal to replace the constitution. If pursued, this could pave the way for deeper structural reforms to Thailand’s economy.

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**AI’s (potential) impact on Asia**
We now turn to the longer, second part of this week’s letter, where we examine AI’s potential impact on Asia. In contrast to last week’s discussion, the focus here is on Asia’s role as an end-user of AI, rather than its position within the global AI supply chain. While AI broadly promises substantial productivity gains if deeply embedded across economies, one sector where Asia may benefit disproportionately is manufacturing. This reflects the relatively high share of manufacturing value added in GDP across many Asian economies compared with the global average (chart 3). In particular, Asia stands to reap significant productivity gains through the widespread adoption of AI-powered robotics. Cost, however, remains a key consideration: relative to the overall cost of human labour, AI-enabled robots have yet to become unequivocally competitive once high upfront capital outlays are taken into account. That said, recent advances in humanoid, AI-enabled robots have demonstrated increasingly broad and sophisticated capabilities in replicating human tasks, including delicate and precision operations. Over time, this could meaningfully alleviate a persistent structural challenge facing many advanced Asian economies—ageing populations and the associated labour constraints.

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Digging deeper into the ageing population challenge faced by many Asian economies, another area where AI and robotics could play a meaningful role is healthcare. Ageing societies face a twin burden: a rising number of elderly individuals requiring care alongside a shrinking pool of working-age caregivers, absent offsetting labour inflows. One proxy for this imbalance is the old-age dependency, which, as shown in chart 4, is already relatively high in several Asian economies, including China, Japan, and South Korea. That said, adoption remains at a very early stage. Significant barriers to widespread deployment persist, including regulatory and ethical considerations, high implementation costs, and questions around the consistency, reliability, and safety of AI-enabled systems in delivering healthcare-related tasks.

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**Asia’s challenges in AI adoption**
That said, the outlook is not entirely positive for Asia in the context of widespread AI adoption. As with previous waves of transformative technology, AI will inevitably render some jobs—at least in their current form—obsolete, even as it creates new roles and reshapes others. This implies that many Asian economies will need to navigate a significant structural adjustment in their labour markets, as certain types of work are displaced while demand for new skill sets emerges. How effectively Asia manages this transition will be critical in determining whether its economies move ahead of—or fall behind—the global shift towards AI. At present, and using education quality as a rough proxy, some Asian economies appear better positioned to manage this adjustment than others. As illustrated in chart 5, economies such as China, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea seem relatively well placed to absorb and adapt to the coming changes. That said, education quality is only an imperfect indicator. Other factors will also matter, including the capacity to rapidly retool and reskill the workforce, as well as the inclusiveness of the transition. Ensuring that lower-skilled and more vulnerable segments of society are not left behind will be an important determinant of the long-term economic and social outcomes of AI adoption across the region.

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Another potential hurdle relates to bureaucratic costs, which—when elevated—can act as a meaningful source of friction in the adoption of new AI-driven technologies. On this front, some Asian economies stand out for having comparatively low bureaucratic burdens, notably Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea, while others, such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and China, tend to lag (chart 6). That said, as with many broad-based indicators, this picture masks important nuances. Several of these economies have introduced industry-specific—particularly AI-focused—fast-tracking initiatives aimed at accelerating development within targeted domestic sectors. Even so, in an increasingly competitive and intensifying global race to adopt AI and capture its economic upside, we may see a growing tendency toward an “adopt first, regulate later” approach in the years ahead. This is likely to persist unless and until major incidents or heightened concerns emerge that materially slow the pace of AI adoption.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Of Ballots and Bots

Robert Brusca

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Japan's economy watchers index has flattened out and backed off slightly for the current and future outlooks depending on the time horizon that you seek. However, what's clear is that the index reached the low point around the middle of last year, has been rebounding and now the rebound has either run out of gas or slowed after the index has rebuilt itself considerably.  

It is certainly too early to get pessimistic on Japan's economy, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi having just won a significant - essentially a landslide - snap election that she called after recently having been elected. The LDP would appear to be back in the driver's seat, and she has her sights set on more fiscal stimulus and expanded military spending. She is apparently much more on the same wavelength as Donald Trump in the United States. Mr. Trump was an Abe supporter, and Ms. Takaichi is a disciple of Mr. Abe.

At the moment, Japan would seem to have a groundswell of support behind the government and that government is set to try to rekindle some growth which could potentially put the Bank of Japan in a more decisively defensive track as far as setting rates and potentially raising rates.

**Economy watchers index is trending**
In January, the economy watchers index backed off for the second month in a row. However, it still has a percentile standing in its 51-percentile, slightly above its median standing since early-2005. The headline and all the components have standings above their respective 50th percentiles on this timeline, with the exception of housing, services, and employment; three readings that are extremely important to consumers. Housing has a 26.1 percentile standing, services (the employment sector) have a 45.8 percentile standing, while employment has a 22.9 percentile standing. Despite the otherwise solid and strong set of readings, there are these three significant flies in the ointment. Corporate Japan is doing extremely well with corporations having a 66.8 percentile standing; manufacturers and nonmanufacturers, separately, each come in with readings in their mid-to-upper 60th percentiles.

**The future index**
The future readings from the economy watchers index show continued but slight increases over the last few months. Only two future readings weaken month-to-month: housing and employment—once again two key readings as far as consumers are concerned. However, in terms of current monthly diffusion readings, the assessment of households, retailing, housing, and employment all have current diffusion values below 50, indicating net declines rather than increases. The percentile standing is for the future index are, like those for the current index, generally upbeat - and generally stronger than for the current indexes - with the future headline posting a 66.4 percentile standing in January. However, like the current index, the standing for housing is at its 21.3 percentile and the standing for employment is at its 30th percentile, both well below the neutral level that would place the ranking at the 50th percentile. Corporations show high readings, higher for the future indexes than for the current index standings. There also are high readings and standings for eating and drinking places as well as services. It's good to see services come up with a strong rating since it creates hope for the future for employment because services are the core employment sector. It will be interesting to see how this value changes in the coming months as Takaichi’s new policies are implemented and take hold.

**Summing up**
On balance, the economy watchers index has been firm to strong. There is some slight give-back in the current index in terms of trend. But beyond the index, there's more immediate reason to be more positive because Japan has just executed a very decisive and pro-growth snap election that is going to put the new Prime Minister Takaichi and strong control of the economy at a time where she seeks to cement economic strength. These elections were just completed over the weekend, and we will see the results reflected in data in the weeks and months to come.

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Japan

Economy Watchers Indexes Show Firmness; Impact of Takaichi Election to Come in Months Ahead

Economy in Brief: 2007

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Encouraging Trends in Retail Sales in Hong Kong and Denmark