Tom Moeller

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<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100201d.jpg" style="width: 353px; height: 265px;" align="right">The
pace of
improvement in the U.S. factory sector picked up steam in the new year.
The National Association of Purchasing Management reported that its
January composite index showed unexpected strength, for the second
consecutive month, rising to 58.4 from 54.9 during December. The latest
figure was the highest since August 2004 and was up from the low of
32.9 reached in December '08. The latest jump exceeded Consensus
expectations for a reading of 55.2. (Any figure above the break-even
point of 50 suggests rising activity.) Last year's figures were revised
due to updated seasonal factors and the ISM data is available in
Haver's USECON database.
The latest ISM level is
consistent with roughly 4.0% growth in factory sector output. This
positive growth rate resembles recoveries from past severe recessions
but to fully mirror the strength of those recoveries the index needs to
rise to a level near or above 60.&nbsp;
The production component posted the
strongest m/m gain last month but remained lower than its 2004 high.
During the last ten years there has been an 84% correlation between the
level of the production component of the composite index and the
three-month growth in factory sector industrial production. It
is appropriate to correlate the ISM index level
with factory sector output growth because the ISM
index is a diffusion index. It measures growth by using all of the
positive changes in activity added to one half of the zero change in
activity measures.
The employment index also posted a strong
increase to 53.3 which indicated positive growth in factory sector
payrolls for three out of the last four months. It's up from a low
reading of 25.9 last February. Fifteen percent of respondents indicated
higher payrolls versus only five percent last January. Twelve percent
indicated a lower level of hiring versus 49% last January. During the
last ten years there has been a 90% correlation between the index level
and the three-month change in manufacturing payrolls.
The rise in the
inventory component to 46.5 brought it back near the October high.
Sixteen percent (NSA) of respondents indicated that they were raising
inventory levels versus 18% last January. During the strong 2005
inventory accumulation 26% of firms indicated that they were raising
inventories. Twenty-four percent of respondents indicated lower
inventories last month. The vendor performance indicator which measures
the speed of deliveries rose to 60.1. This indication of slower speeds
was its highest since 2005.
The new orders index showed a lesser m/m
increase, but it reached a new high of 65.9. The export order index
also rose to a new high and was up from its low of 35.5 in December
'08. During the last ten years there has been a 53% correlation between
the index and the q/q change in real exports of goods in the GDP
accounts.
The separate index of prices paid also rose to a new
cycle-high of 70.0. That was up from the December '08 low of 18.0.
During the last twenty years there has been a 79% correlation between
the price index and the three-month change in the PPI for intermediate
goods. Forty-four percent of respondents reported higher prices while
only 4 percent indicated lower prices.The ISM data are available in
Haver's USECON database.
Focusing
on
Bank Interest Rate Risk Exposure is Friday's speech by Fed
Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn and it is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kohn20100129a.htm">here</a>.
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100201e.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100201f.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S2/@S201/@S201.HTM">ISM
Mfg</a></th>
<th scope="col">January</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">Jan. '09</th>
<th scope="col">2009</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Composite Index</td>
<td>58.4</td>
<td>54.9</td>
<td>53.7</td>
<td>35.5</td>
<td>46.2</td>
<td>45.5</td>
<td>51.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; New Orders</td>
<td>65.9</td>
<td>64.8</td>
<td>61.5</td>
<td>33.2</td>
<td>51.6</td>
<td>42.1</td>
<td>54.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Employment</td>
<td>53.3</td>
<td>50.2</td>
<td>49.6</td>
<td>29.0</td>
<td>40.5</td>
<td>43.3</td>
<td>50.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Production</td>
<td>66.2</td>
<td>59.7</td>
<td>60.2</td>
<td>30.8</td>
<td>50.4</td>
<td>45.2</td>
<td>54.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Supplier Deliveries</td>
<td>60.1</td>
<td>56.8</td>
<td>55.7</td>
<td>45.9</td>
<td>51.4</td>
<td>51.6</td>
<td>51.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventories</td>
<td>46.5</td>
<td>43.0</td>
<td>41.4</td>
<td>38.4</td>
<td>37.1</td>
<td>45.5</td>
<td>45.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index (NSA)</td>
<td>70.0</td>
<td>61.5</td>
<td>55.0</td>
<td>29.0</td>
<td>48.3</td>
<td>66.5</td>
<td>64.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

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The pace of improvement in the U.S. factory sector picked up steam in the new year. The National Association of Purchasing Management reported that its January composite index showed unexpected strength, for the second consecutive [...]

ISM Manufacturing Index Reaches Highest Since 2004

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<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100201a.jpg" style="width: 353px; height: 265px;" align="right">The
Commerce
Department's latest report on consumer income &amp; spending
indicated that times were never worse than in 2009. Cutbacks in
employment prompted a record 1.4% annual decline (it's never before
fallen y/y), though modest positive growth returned in the second half.
Indeed, income rose during December about as it did beginning in the
spring due to easing declines in employment, faster growth in dividend
income and rising transfer payments.&nbsp;&nbsp; Overall personal
income gained 0.4% during December after an upwardly revised
0.5% November increase. The latest figure outpaced Consensus
expectations for a 0.3% rise. Wages &amp; salaries ticked up 0.1%
after an upwardly revised 0.4% November increase but for the year wage
income fell by 3.3% due to fewer jobs and pay cuts. Wages in the
factory sector fell 0.3% and were down a hard 10.3% for the year. That
decline followed a 1.5% drop during 2008. In the service sector wages
rose a firmer 0.3% but were down an unprecedented 2.9% for the year. A
0.3% December rise in wages in the government sector and a 3.6% gain
for the full year offset a negligible portion of these private sector
declines.&nbsp; Disposable income rose a steady 0.4% during
December and for the year rose 1.5% due to tax cuts early in the year.
These cuts enabled the savings rate to rise to 4.8% which was near
where it began the year but up sharply from the 1.0% low at the
beginning of 2008.&nbsp; Due to the pickup in corporate profitability in
the second half of last year monthly dividend income began to grow.
However, earlier declines which extended back to 2007 pulled the
full-year figure down 19.2%. Offsetting some of the annual decline were
unemployment insurance payments which more than doubled for the year as
a whole. However, that growth turned negative by yearend as long-term
unemployment exhausted benefit claims.Personal spending ticked
up just 0.2% in December after an upwardly revised 0.7% November
increase. For the year spending fell an unprecedented 0.4%. Adjusted
for inflation the yearly decline mounted to 0.6% which was the second
year of negative growth. Pulling down the yearly figures were 8.8% and
13.6% declines in real spending on motor vehicles. Adding to that were
6.0% and 2.9% drops in furniture &amp; household durables as well
as less spending on clothing. Spending on services was roughly
unchanged as spending on recreation fell 1.3% while&nbsp; fewer
meals out &amp; fewer vacations lowered spending here by 2.9%.
These declines were unprecedented.The PCE chain price index
ticked up just 0.1% during December and 0.2% for the year pulled down
by the fourth year of decline in prices for furnishings &amp;
household durables. Higher gasoline prices through much of the year
failed to offset declines late in 2008 so for 2009 prices fell roughly
one-quarter from 2008. The core PCE price deflator ticked up just 0.1%
during December and the 0.2% gain for the year was a record low.&nbsp;The
personal income &amp; consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON
and USNA databases.
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100201b.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;"><img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100201c.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E711/@E71102/@E71102.HTM" style="color: black;">Disposition of Personal Income</a>
(%)&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2009</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Personal Income</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>-1.4</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>5.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;
&nbsp;Disposable Personal Income</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>4.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Personal Consumption
Expenditures</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>4.0</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>5.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Saving Rate</td>
<td>4.8</td>
<td>4.5</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>4.7 (Dec.'08)</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>1.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">PCE Chain Price Index</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>3.3</td>
<td>2.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;
Less food &amp; energy</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>2.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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The Commerce Department's latest report on consumer income & spending indicated that times were never worse than in 2009. Cutbacks in employment prompted a record 1.4% annual decline (it's never before fallen y/y), though modest [...]

U.S. Personal Income & Spending In Record Decline Last Year

U.S. Personal Income &Spending In Record Decline Last Year

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

US tariff revenues nearly doubled in April

Even with expected tariff-induced increases in inflation, BCFF forecasters look for a more aggressive round of monetary easing

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

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Total housing starts increased 4.6% (-0.5% y/y) in June to 1.321 million units (SAAR) after falling a little-revised 9.7% in May to 1.263 million, revised from 1.256 million, and rising 3.2% in April to 1.398 million, revised from 1.392, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Total starts in June were 27.4% below their peak of 1.820 million units reached in April 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.30 million starts in June.

Single-family starts in June fell 4.6% (-10.0% y/y) to 883,000 after declining 2.3% in May to 926,000, revised from 924,000, and holding steady at 948,000 in April, revised from 920,000. Multi-family starts rebounded 30.0% in June (26.6% y/y) to 438,000 after declining 25.1% in May to 337,000, revised from 332,000, and increasing 10.6% to 450,000 in April, revised from 472,000.

All of the increase in starts last month was due to a 73.3% surge (52.9% y/y) in the Northeast to 182,000 units, following a decline of 42.6% in May. Offsetting this increase, starts in the South weakened 0.7% (-9.0% y/y) to 674,000 after falling 9.0% in May. Starts in the West declined 1.4% (-1.7% y/y) to 286,000 after rising 22.4% in May. Housing starts in the Midwest declined 5.3% (+1.7% y/y) to 179,000 after falling 18.5% in May.

Building permits improved 0.2% (-4.4% y/y) last month to 1.397 million after falling 2.0% in May and declining 4.0% in April. Single-family permits fell 3.7% (-8.4% y/y) in June to 866,000 after weakening 2.6% in May. Multi-family permits rose 7.3% (+2.9% y/y) after easing 0.8% in May. Building permits fell 11.4% (-7.6% y/y) in the Northeast and in the West, permits fell 5.1% (-9.2% y/y). In the South, building permits rose 4.4% (-4.2% y/y), while in the Midwest, building permits held steady (+4.1% y/y).

The housing starts and building permits figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Increase recovers half of prior month’s drop.
- Multi-family starts surge but single-family starts fall.
- Building permits rise negligibly after two months of decline.

U.S. Housing Starts Rebound in June

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Total retail sales increased 0.6% (3.9% y/y) during June following an unrevised 0.9% May decline and an unrevised 0.1% April easing. A 0.1% uptick had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding autos rose 0.5% (3.3% y/y) following a 0.2% May decline, revised from -0.3%, and an unrevised no change in April. A 0.3% rise had been expected.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline and food services, rose 0.5% (4.0% y/y) in June after gaining 0.2% in May, revised from 0.4%, and minimally revised 0.2% April decline. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in the NIPA accounts. These sales rose 3.2% (AR) last quarter following a 3.7% Q1 rise.

Light vehicle sales increased 1.2% (6.5% y/y) in June after declines of 3.8% and 0.7% in the prior two months. This compares to a 0.3% June decline (2.6% y/y) in unit sales of motor vehicles last month which followed an 8.8% May slump. Gasoline station sales eased lightly (-4.4% y/y) during June after a 1.3% drop during May. Gasoline prices held steady (-7.6% y/y) last month. Sales of building materials & garden equipment rose 0.9% (-1.1% y/y) after a 2.7% decline during May.

Apparel store sales increased 0.9% (3.9% y/y) during June following a 0.3% gain. General merchandise store sales rose 0.5% (3.2% y/y) after they edged 0.1% higher in May, but department store sales declined 0.8% (-3.6% y/y) following a 0.3% dip. Nonstore retail sales increased 0.4% (4.5% y/y) following a 0.6% gain. Sporting goods & hobby shop sales improved 0.2% (1.6% y/y) after strengthening 1.0% in May. To the downside, furniture & home furnishings store sales slipped 0.1% (+4.5% y/y) after declining 0.6% in May. Electronics & appliance store sales also eased 0.1% (-0.2% y/y) following a 0.3% May decline.

In the nondiscretionary sales sector, food & beverage store sales rose 0.5% (2.5% y/y) last month following a 0.5% decline in May. Health & personal care store sales also rose 0.5% (8.3% y/y) after easing 0.1% in May.

Restaurant & drinking establishment sales increased 0.6% (6.6% y/y) in June following a 0.1% slip during May.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economic Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Increase led by surge in sales excluding autos.
- Nonauto sales also improve.
- Sales in the control group (used to estimate PCE) strengthen.

U.S. Retail Sales Rebound in June

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The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo rose 3.1% to 33 (-19.5% y/y) during July after falling 5.9% to 32 in June. The reading matched expectations in the Informa Global Markets Survey. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the y/y change in the home builders index and the y/y change in housing starts.

The index of present sales conditions in the housing market rose 2.9% (-21.7% y/y) to 36 following two straight months of decline. The index for conditions in the next six months increased 7.5% (-10.4% y/y) to 43 following three consecutive monthly declines.

Home builders reported that the traffic of prospective buyers reading fell 4.8% to 20 (-25.9% y/y), the lowest level since December 2024.

Amongst the regional indexes, the index for the Midwest gained 12.8% both m/m and y/y while the index for the West rose 13.6% (-32.4% y/y). The index for the Northeast improved 9.1% (2.1% y/y) but the index for the South fell 3.3% (-32.6% y/y).

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results six over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, .1358 for single-family detached sales, next months and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's **MMSAMER** database.

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- Increase follows two months of decline.
- Two of three components rise.
- Regional indexes are mixed.

U.S. Home Builder Index Improves in July

Sandy Batten

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The Current Activity Diffusion Index from the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, jumped nearly 20 points to 15.9 in July from -4.0 in June. This was the first positive reading since March and the highest reading since February. A positive reading points to expansion in activity in the Third Federal Reserve District. A reading of -0.3 for July had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Nearly 32% of respondents reported an increase in activity in July versus 24.5% in June while 16% reported a decline, down markedly from 28% in June. Responses to this month's survey were collected from July 7 to July 14.

The headline index reflects the answer to a single question on activity. Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-adjusted current activity diffusion index from five key components using the methodology employed in constructing the national ISM index. That index slipped to 51.2 in July from 51.4 in June, indicating that the outsize jump in the headline index was not widely supported by the components. Still, readings above 50 for the ISM-adjusted index point to continued expansion.

Looking at the component indexes, orders and shipments posted significant gains with new orders jumping to 18.4 in July, the highest reading since February, from 2.3 in June and shipments surging to 23.7 from 8.3 in June. Thirty-five percent of respondents reported an increase in new orders while 17% reported a decline; 32% reported an increase in shipments versus only 9% reporting a decline. Employment returned to positive territory in July, rising to 10.3 from -9.8 in June. In contrast, unfilled orders slipped to 5.7 from 9.3 and delivery times shortened with the index falling to -4.7 from 13.6. Inventories also slid, to -1.3 in July from 3.6 in June.

Inflation indicators picked up in July with the prices paid index jumping to 58.8 from 41.4 in June. Nearly 61% of respondents reported paying higher prices for inputs, up from 41% in June. The prices received index rose to 34.8 from 29.5 in June with nearly 35% reporting that they received higher prices this month, up slightly from 32% reporting increases in June.

The outlook continues to be clouded. The Future Activity Index rebounded slightly to 21.5 in July after having plunged to 18.3 in June from 47.2 in May. Forty-one percent of respondents expect an increase in activity over the next six months, down from 45% in the June survey and 67% in May. Expectations for new orders and inventories improved while expectations for shipments, delivery times and employment fell. Expectations for capital spending rose slightly to 17.1 from 14.5 but are still down meaningfully from a recent high of 39.0 reached in January, likely a response to the marked increase in policy uncertainty generated by the Trump administration.

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The diffusion indexes in the MBOS represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The series from the survey dating back to May 1968 can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The headline index jumped nearly 20 points, led by strong performances by both orders and shipments.
- However, ISM-adjusted composite slipped a bit, indicating that the jump in the headline index was not widely supported by the components.
- Delivery times shortened markedly while both prices paid and prices received indexes posted significant gains.

U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in July

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Import prices edged up 0.1% m/m (-0.2% y/y) in June after falling a revised 0.4% m/m (previously unchanged) in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 0.2% m/m increase had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Export prices rebounded, rising 0.5% m/m (2.8% y/y) in June, nearly reversing an upwardly revised 0.6% m/m decline in May (previously -0.9% m/m). The Action Economic Forecast Survey had looked for a 0.1% monthly gain.

For imports, prices for nonfuel imports ticked up 0.1% m/m in June, after being unchanged in May. Higher prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials (0.7% m/m) and consumer goods excluding autos (0.4% m/m) more than offset lower prices for foods, feeds and beverages (-0.8% m/m) and automotive vehicles (-0.1% m/m). Nonfuel import prices increased 1.2% for the year ended June 2025 and have not declined on an over-the-year basis since a 0.6% decrease in February 2024. Higher prices from a year ago for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials (4.3% y/y); foods, feeds, and beverages (4.5% y/y); capital goods (1.0% y/y); and automotive vehicles (0.9% y/y) more than offset lower prices for consumer goods ex autos (-0.6% y/y).

For exports, higher prices for both nonagricultural (0.5% m/m) and agricultural exports (0.8% m/m) drove the June rebound. The 0.8% monthly gain in agricultural export prices was the largest monthly gain since October 2024. Higher prices for meat and soybeans more than offset lower prices for fruit. The rebound in nonagricultural export prices in June after a 0.7% monthly decline in May reflected higher prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials (0.9% m/m), consumer goods ex autos (0.8% m/m), and automotive vehicles (0.1% m/m). In contrast, prices of exported capital goods edged down 0.1% m/m, the first monthly decline since August 2024. Export prices increased 2.8% from June 2024 to June 2025, the largest y/y rise since the index advanced 2.8% for the year ended January 2025.

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Import prices edged up in June from May but fell from a year ago.
- Higher prices for nonfuel imports more than offset lower prices for fuel imports in June. 
- Export prices jumped more than expected, nearly reversing May’s decline.
- Prices rose for both agricultural and nonagricultural exports.

U.S. Import Prices Edged Up and Export Prices Rebounded in June

Economy in Brief: February 2010

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