Economy in Brief: March 2022

In February, manufacturing PMI results are mixed with 7 out of 17 reporters showing results that are worse than they were one month ago. Over three months nine countries or regions show worse PMI values than they had six months ago; there is net deterioration over six months. However, over 12 months all reporting areas except one show results superior to what it was 12-months ago with the exception being China.

The table shows mixed momentum over three months and six months. But the queue or rank standings show that by and large conditions are still relatively firm across most of the regions for manufacturing. Only three countries have percentile standings of their PMI gauges below 50%; those are Mexico, China, and Russia. Turkey sits on the fence at its 50% mark. Queue and rank standings at 50% reflect the midpoint for each series. For the most part, countries have firm-to-strong readings for manufacturing well above their midpoints. These results are quite solid when compared to their recent history over the last four-plus years.

The table also shows changes in manufacturing PMIs since January 2020 before the virus struck. What we see is only the euro area and Germany have double-digit improvements over this period. After that, the biggest improvement that we see comes from the U.K. at eight points and then a number of countries in the five-to-six-point gain region such as France, the U.S. and Canada. Showing weakness over this period; i.e., a decline -a weaker PMI gauge in February 2022 than in January 2020- are Mexico, China, Russia, India, and Turkey. That weakness indicates that there is still a significant risk in countries that have had no improvement in manufacturing PMIs in over two years and in countries where PMI stands are still low.