Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Aug 22 2006

  "For the CPI excluding everything, inflation is zero."ĀĀ

  The above quote from a wise bond trader has been voiced for years by skeptics who wonder why anything as important as the price for energy, food, etc. should be taken out of an inflation measure. The short answer is that some supply [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 21 2006

  Oil & Gold Prices Down. A Trend Reversal?

  Inflationary concerns were piqued by the up-trend in prices for gold & oil. That trend reversed a bit last week as the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil settled on Friday at $71.15 per barrel, down 7.6% from the near-high of [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 21 2006

  Oil & Gold Prices Down. A Trend Reversal?

  Inflationary concerns were piqued by the up-trend in prices for gold & oil. That trend reversed a bit last week as the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil settled on Friday at $71.15 per barrel, down 7.6% from the near-high of [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 18 2006

  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Sagged

  Consumer sentiment in early August dropped sharply to the lowest level since last October, according to the University of Michigan. The 7.1% m/m decline in the sentiment index to 78.7 compared to consensus expectations for stability [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 18 2006

  Philadelphia Fed Index Highest Since 2005

  For August, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's Index of General Business Conditions in the manufacturing sector improved to 18.5 from an unrevised 6.0 during July. The rebound by far outpaced Consensus expectations for an uptick [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 18 2006

  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Sagged

  Consumer sentiment in early August dropped sharply to the lowest level since last October, according to the University of Michigan. The 7.1% m/m decline in the sentiment index to 78.7 compared to consensus expectations for stability [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 17 2006

  Leading Economic Indicators Dipped, Again

  The composite index of leading economic indicators dipped 0.1% during July and reversed the June uptick. The figure reported by the Conference Board was the fourth m/m decline this year and compared to Consensus expectations for a [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 17 2006

  Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Reverse Increase

  Initial claims for jobless insurance last week reversed all of the upwardly revised increase the prior period and fell 10,000 to 312,000. Consensus expectations had been for 317,000 claims. During July, claims averaged 314,000.A [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 17 2006

  Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Reverse Increase

  Initial claims for jobless insurance last week reversed all of the upwardly revised increase the prior period and fell 10,000 to 312,000. Consensus expectations had been for 317,000 claims. During July, claims averaged 314,000.A [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 16 2006

  Mortgage Applications Up With More Refinancings

  The total number of mortgage applications rose 1.4% last week following a 4.9% rise the week prior. The gains were led by rebounding applications to refinance which rose 4.6% on top of a 7.1% increase during the first week of August. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 16 2006

  July Housing Starts Down Further

  Housing starts fell for the fourth straight month in July, by 2.5% to 1.795M units. The decline slightly outpaced Consensus expectations for drop to 1.81M starts. Total housing starts in July were 20.8% below the peak this past [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 16 2006

  Industrial Production Up With Temperatures

  Total U.S. industrial output increased 0.4% last month. The gain was a bit light versus Consensus expectations for a 0.5% rise though it followed an unrevised 0.8% jump during June. Hot temperatures throughout the country fueled a [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief