Global| Aug 17 2006Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Reverse Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for jobless insurance last week reversed all of the upwardly revised increase the prior period and fell 10,000 to 312,000. Consensus expectations had been for 317,000 claims. During July, claims averaged 314,000.A [...]
Initial claims for jobless insurance last week reversed all of the upwardly revised increase the prior period and fell 10,000 to 312,000. Consensus expectations had been for 317,000 claims.
During July, claims averaged 314,000.A portion of the decline from that level reflects a fall from levels that spiked higher during the automobile industry's annual summer shutdown.
The latest figure covers the survey period for August nonfarm payrolls and initial claims rose 7,000 (2.3%) from the July period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The less volatile four-week moving average of initial claims increased to 311,250 (-1.5% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 34,000 following a slightly revised 41,000 increase during the previous week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 1.9% where it has been since February.
An Update on the Status of the Economy and Its Implications for Monetary Policy is yesterday's speech by Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Fisher and it is available here.
Labor Markets and the Macroeconomy: Conference Summary from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 8/12/06 | 8/05/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 312 | 322 | -2.5% | 332 | 343 | 403 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,507 | -3.5% | 2,662 | 2,924 | 3,532 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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