Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Aug 25 2006

  Monetary Policy's Posture: Many "Buts"

  The dissenting opinion at the last FOMC meeting from Richmond Fed Bank President Lacker no doubt reflected more than a concern that economic growth was still too robust to be consistent with moderate inflation, but that various [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 24 2006

  Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Dip

  Initial claims for jobless insurance last week dipped 1,000 to 313,000 after a revised 8,000 decline the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 24 2006

  U.S. Durable Goods Firm Despite Volatile Aircraft

  New orders for durable goods backpedaled 2.4% last month after an upwardly revised 3.5% surge during June. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.5% dip. Again, volatile orders for nondefense aircraft & parts provided much of the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 24 2006

  New Home Sales Down, Inventory Ballooned

  Sales of new single family home sales dropped 4.3% last month to 1.072M though a 0.9% June decline was revised shallower. Consensus expectations had been for July sales of 1.10M. New home sales during the first seven months of this [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 24 2006

  New Home Sales Down, Inventory Ballooned

  Sales of new single family home sales dropped 4.3% last month to 1.072M though a 0.9% June decline was revised shallower. Consensus expectations had been for July sales of 1.10M. New home sales during the first seven months of this [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 23 2006

  Mass Layoffs Up Again

  The number of mass layoff events in July increased 2.6% after a 2.1% gain during June. Despite the increases, layoff events during the first seven months of 2006 remained down 11.4% from the year earlier period. During the last ten [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 23 2006

  Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity & Richmond Fed Mfg. Indexes Down

  At -0.12 for July, the National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago was negative for the second month in the last three. Moreover, the three-month moving average of the CFNAI fell to 0.07, its lowest level [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 23 2006

  Mortgage Applications Lackluster, Rates Down

  The total number of mortgage applications ticked up 0.1% last week after firms gains during the prior two weeks. As a result of the earlier increases, the average level of applications in August is up 3.0% from July. Again, recent [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 23 2006

  U.S. Existing Home Sales Down

  The National Association of Realtors reported that total existing home sales fell 4.1% during July to 6.330M, the fourth consecutive m/m decline. The decline compared to Consensus expectations for a lesser decline to 6.55M. Sales of [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 23 2006

  U.S. Existing Home Sales Down

  The National Association of Realtors reported that total existing home sales fell 4.1% during July to 6.330M, the fourth consecutive m/m decline. The decline compared to Consensus expectations for a lesser decline to 6.55M. Sales of [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 22 2006

  "For the CPI excluding everything, inflation is zero."

  The above quote from a wise bond trader has been voiced for years by skeptics who wonder why anything as important as the price for energy, food, etc. should be taken out of an inflation measure. The short answer is that some supply [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 22 2006

  Weekly Chain Store Sales Slip With Gasoline Prices

  Last week, chain store sales slipped 0.2% again. The decline was the third consecutive week of lackluster sales, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey, and lowered the latest week's total 0.4% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief