The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators, reported by the Conference Board, fell as expected last month. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the fifth decline in the last six. August figures were revised to [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Oct 21 2002Leading Indicators Down For Fourth Month
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 18 2002
CPI Rose Moderately
Consumer prices (CPI-U) rose 0.2% last month, equaling Consensus expectations. Excluding food and energy, prices rose a less than expected 0.1%. Tobacco prices again were strong, rising 1.6% following a 2.4% jump in August. The core [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 17 2002
Housing Starts Much Stronger Than Expected
Housing starts were stronger than expected last month rising 13.3% m/m to the highest level since 1986. Starts in August were revised slightly higher due to raised multi-family starts. Single family starts rose 18.2% from the previous [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 16 2002
Crude Oil Prices Hold the High Level
Since mid-August, oil prices have held near the $30.00 per barrel level for West Texas Intermediate crude. Wholesale gasoline prices have shown more strength of late rising $0.10 per gallon, or 12%, during just the last month. Fuel [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 15 2002
Business Inventory Decumulation Resumed
Total business inventories fell in August for the first monthly decline since April. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% gain. July figures were little revised. Retail inventories (3.9% YTD) fell led by a 0.5% decline in motor [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 14 2002
ECRI Future Inflation Gauge Rose Further
The Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose for the sixth consecutive month in September. Gains in the last four of those months have been notable. The indicator's six-month growth [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 11 2002
Retail Sales Decline
Retail sales fell about as expected last month following firm August gains that were revised slightly down. Year to date retail sales were up at a 3.3% annual rate through September. Sales of motor vehicle and parts fell a sharp 4.8%. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 10 2002
Import Prices Rose Twice Expectations
Prices for imported commodities surged last month by the most for any month since April. Consensus expectations were for a moderate 0.3% gain. August figures were little revised. Petroleum import prices posted the largest monthly gain [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 09 2002
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Down Again in August
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was again negative in August, the fifth negative reading this year. The reading pulled the three-month moving average to -0.13. The index level measures deviations from zero. A zero [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 08 2002
Chain Store Sales Recover
Chain store sales recovered all of the prior week's loss according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Sales rose 0.8% last week, reversing the 0.8% drop the prior week. Sales began the month of October 0.6% below the average for September which [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 07 2002
ECRI Leading Indicators Fell Further
The Weekly Leading Index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has fallen 4.0% from the weekly peak reached late this past May. The indicator's six-month growth rate, perhaps the more important [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 04 2002
Nonfarm Payrolls Fell in September
Nonfarm payrolls fell unexpectedly last month, down 43,000. It was the first decline in payrolls since April. August's moderate payroll gain was revised up sharply to 107,000 from 39,000 reported last month. Payrolls are about [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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