Nonfarm labor productivity grew as expected last quarter. Consensus estimates were for growth at a 4.1% rate. While growth was more than double the 2Q rate, it was roughly half the heated growth of 4Q01 and 1Q02. Output in the nonfarm [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Nov 07 2002Nonfarm Productivity Growth Strong in 3Q
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Nov 06 2002
Fed Cuts Funds Rate 50 Basis Points
The Federal Reserve lowered the Federal Funds Target Rate more than expected to 1.25%, the lowest it's been since July 1961. The Board also lowered the discount rate 50 basis points to 0.75% The press release, which accompanied the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Nov 05 2002
Weekly Chain Store Sales Recover, Again Just Some
Chain store sales rose sharply last week, according to the BTM-UBSW survey, but the rise did not recover all the prior week's sharp decline. Sales rose 1.1% after falling 1.9% the week prior. For all of October, sales were 1.5% below [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Nov 04 2002
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Plummet
Unit sales of light vehicles fell in October to the lowest pace since December 2000. Consensus expectations had been for a 16.4 M sales rate. Year to date sales have averaged 16.7 M units, about equal to the first ten months of 2001. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Nov 01 2002
Nonfarm Payrolls Fell Again
Nonfarm payrolls fell about as expected last month, down 5,000. Figures for September and August were revised up slightly as a result of raised private service sector & construction figures. Amongst industries, factory sector jobs [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 31 2002
3Q GDP Growth Firm
Real GDP last quarter grew slightly less than Consensus expectations for a 3.5% (AR) rise. Nevertheless it was the second strongest quarterly rate of growth since 2Q 2000. Domestic final demand growth of 3.2% was paced by 4.2% growth [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 30 2002
OECD Leaders Down
The OECD Index of Leading Indicators fell during this past Summer following steady improvement to a June peak. Real economic growth in the Major Seven OECD countries remained positive through 2Q02. In the US real GDP grew 1.3% (AR). [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 29 2002
Consumer Confidence Plunged
The Conference Boards Index of Consumer Confidence fell quite a bit more than expected in October, to 79.4. Consensus expectations were for a reading of 90.0. September's level was revised up slightly. The 15.3% m/m decline in [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 28 2002
Setting Monetary Policy
Setting the course for US monetary policy is the job of the Federal Reserve System. The arduous task is complicated by the myriad relationships, most of them lagged, amongst financial and real economic variables. The Fed starts by [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 25 2002
Durable Goods Orders Down Sharply
Durable goods orders were quite a bit weaker than expected last month, falling more than in any month since September of last year. The slight August decline was unrevised. Much of the September decline was due to a sharp 46.3% drop [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 24 2002
Claims for Jobless Insurance Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell more than expected in the latest week. Claims in the prior week were revised up slightly. The latest decline may have been influenced by the Columbus Day holiday, according to the Labor [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 22 2002
Chain Store Sales Recover, Some
Chain store sales recouped some of the prior week's sharp decline according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Sales rose 0.6% last week following a 0.9% decline the prior week. Sales thus far in October sales were 1.0% below the average for [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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