Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Dec 16 2002

  Empire State Factory Survey Improved Further in December

  The Empire State Manufacturing Survey reported that the index of general business conditions improved in December and was positive for a second month. Modest deterioration had been expected by some forecasts. Diffusion indexes for new [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 13 2002

  Producer Prices Fall

  Finished producer prices were weaker than expected last month and fell 0.4%. Consensus expectations were for no change. It was the first decline in prices since July. Excluding food and energy prices also were weaker than expectations [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 12 2002

  Retail Sales Rose Moderately

  Retail sales rose last month in line with Consensus expectations for a 0.4% gain. October sales were revised up due to slightly stronger gains in auto and nonauto sales. Total retail sales were up at a 2.7% annual rate YTD through [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 11 2002

  ECRI Leading Indicators Recover

  The Leading Index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose 1.5% last month, more than recovering the prior two month's declines. At the end of last month, the level of the weekly leading index [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 10 2002

  FOMC Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged

  The Federal Reserve left the Federal Funds Target Rate unchanged at 1.25%. The action was as expected by most economists at the 22 primary dealers, bond firms that trade directly with the central bank. The brief press release which [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 09 2002

  Credit Spreads Tighten

  Corporate bond yields have remained near their cycle lows as yields on US Treasuries have moved higher. The spread between corporates and Treasuries returned to the range of the last three years. The Merrill Lynch Corporate Master [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 06 2002

  Nonfarm Payrolls Fell Unexpectedly

  Nonfarm payrolls were weaker than expected last month, falling 40,000 instead of rising 30,000 as expected by Consensus estimates. Figures for October and September were revised up slightly due to slightly higher estimates of service [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 05 2002

  Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fell Unexpectedly

  Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell unexpectedly last week and remained at the lowest level since early last year. Claims in the prior week were revised up slightly. The latest decline in initial claims may reflect the late [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 04 2002

  Revised Productivity Growth Stronger in 3Q

  Nonfarm labor productivity last quarter was revised up more than expected. Consensus estimates were for a revision to 4.3%. A large upward revision to output, following the upward revision to GDP growth, was the source of the upward [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 03 2002

  Home Price Data Diverge

  Prices for existing homes rose last quarter by the smallest degree in nearly five years. With the exception of a 0.8% gain in 4Q 01, prices have risen between one and three percent each quarter since 1998 according to the government's [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 02 2002

  ISM Index Up Slightly

  The ISM Composite Index of manufacturing sector activity rose less than expected last month and remained below 50 for the third month. The rise to 49.2 was less than suggested by the Chicago purchasing managers report and other [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Nov 27 2002

  Personal Income Modest

  Personal income (4.2% AR, YTD) rose as expected last month. It was the weakest gain in income since a slight decline in July. September's figure was unrevised Wage and salary disbursements were unchanged (3.0% AR, YTD) following 0.6% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief