The US economy grew at a 7.2% annual rate last quarter, the fastest since early 1984. Consensus expectations had been for 6.0% growth. Domestic final demand jumped at a 6.6% rate, the fastest since 3Q97, led by a 15.4% (6.0% y/y) [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Oct 30 20033Q U.S. GDP Growth Surged To 7.2%
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 29 2003
Mortgage Applications Down
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association fell 0.5% (-28.7% y/y) last week following the slight 0.5% uptick the week prior. Purchase applications fell a sharp 5.7% following the 7.5% rise the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 28 2003
Consumer Confidence Up
The Conference Boards Index of Consumer Confidence in October rose and recovered most of the prior month's moderate decline. The index rose 5.3% from September to 81.1. That was versus Consensus estimates for a reading of 79.0. The [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 27 2003
New Home Sales Dip
Sales of new single family homes fell just 0.2% in September to 1.145M (AR) and beat Consensus estimates for a decline to 1.125M. Sales in August were revised down slightly but July and June sales were revised up. Sales of new homes [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 23 2003
Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Down
Initial claims for jobless insurance fell 4,000 to 386,000 last week. The modest decline reported initially for last week was revised to a slight increase. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 385,000. The latest figure [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 22 2003
Mortgage Applications Remained Down
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association ticked up 0.5% (-42.1% y/y) last week following the 20.5% plunge the week prior. Purchase applications gained back 7.5% of the prior week's 18.6% decline. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 21 2003
U.S. Budget Deficit a Record in FY 2003
The U.S. Government budget deficit deepened to a record $374.2 billion in the fiscal year completed last month. That brought the deficit to 3.5% of GDP versus a peak deficit of 6.0% in FY '83 and surpluses from FY '98 through FY '01. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 20 2003
Leading Indicators Fell
The Conference Board reported that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.2% in September following four months of increase. The decline was slightly weaker than Consensus expectations for no change. The 0.4% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 16 2003
CPI Up Moderately
The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) rose 0.3% (2.3% y/y) in September. Consensus expectations were for a 0.2% gain. Less food & energy prices were tame, up 0.1% for the second month versus Consensus expectations for a 0.1% rise. The [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 15 2003
Retail Sales Fell Slightly, Excl. Autos Firm
Retail sales fell a sight 0.2% last month. That was near Consensus expectations for no change. The surge in August sales was revised down slightly to 1.2% but July's gain was revised up to 1.4%. Motor vehicle dealers' sales fell 1.6% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 14 2003
Weekly Chain Store Sales Dipped
Chain store sales dipped 0.5% last week following the 1.3% surge during the week prior, according to the BTM-UBSW survey. So far in October the level of sales is down 0.3% from the September average which fell 0.8% versus August. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 13 2003
OECD Leaders Up Again
The OECD Index of Leading Indicators (Big 7) rose in August for the fifth consecutive month. The 0.9% increase was the fourth of that strong magnitude and the fifth in a row. Despite these gains the leading index remained 1.6% below [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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