Global| Oct 14 2003Weekly Chain Store Sales Dipped
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales dipped 0.5% last week following the 1.3% surge during the week prior, according to the BTM-UBSW survey. So far in October the level of sales is down 0.3% from the September average which fell 0.8% versus August. [...]
Chain store sales dipped 0.5% last week following the 1.3% surge during the week prior, according to the BTM-UBSW survey.
So far in October the level of sales is down 0.3% from the September average which fell 0.8% versus August.
During the last five years there has been a 61% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in the BTM-UBSW measure of chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The BTM-UBSW retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 10/11/03 | 10/04/03 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 421.9 | 424.0 | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% |
by Tom Moeller October 14, 2003
Prices for industrial commodities recently have surged, suggesting a firming in industrial sector activity. The JoC-ECRI Industrial Price Index rose to a level yesterday that was 4.2% above the September average (25.2% y/y).
The metals sub-index was up 4.7% versus September (17.7% y/y) on the strength of surging prices for steel scrap (24.1% y/y). Prices for aluminum also were up 5.5% versus September (14.7% y/y).
Prices for lumber & plywood retreated somewhat from earlier heights, but they still were up 22.2% y/y.
Textile prices also showed some lift, up 2.3% yesterday versus September (9.7% y/y). Cotton prices have been quite strong (74.6% y/y).
Energy prices continued strong, up 4.5% versus September (7.8% y/y) on the strength of higher prices for crude oil and natural gas. Separately, gasoline prices fell to an average $1.57 per gallon in the opening week of October versus a weekly high of $1.75 one month earlier.
For the October Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click here.
| US Retail Gasoline Prices | 10/06/03 | 12/30/02 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Formulations ($/Gal.) | $1.57 | $1.44 | 9.3% | $1.34 | $1.42 | $1.48 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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