Global| Oct 29 2003Mortgage Applications Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association fell 0.5% (-28.7% y/y) last week following the slight 0.5% uptick the week prior. Purchase applications fell a sharp 5.7% following the 7.5% rise the [...]
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association fell 0.5% (-28.7% y/y) last week following the slight 0.5% uptick the week prior.
Purchase applications fell a sharp 5.7% following the 7.5% rise the prior week. Purchase applications last week were up 7.5% y/y but the level so far in October is down 5.6% versus September.
During the last ten years there has been a 53% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Applications to refinance rose 4.9% and gained back most of the prior week's decline. Applications to refinance are down 45.5% y/y and the level so far in October is down 3.9% versus September.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-Year mortgage fell sharply w/w to 6.11%. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also fell w/w to 5.50%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's Economic Letter titled "Mortgage Refinancing" is available here.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 10/24/03 | 10/17/03 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 649.6 | 652.8 | 799.7 | 625.6 | 322.7 |
| Purchase | 363.9 | 386.1 | 354.7 | 304.9 | 302.7 |
| Refinancing | 2,311.8 | 2,204.1 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 | 438.8 |
by Tom Moeller October 29, 2003
Chain store sales fell a sharp 0.9% last week following little change during the week prior, according to the BTM-UBSW survey.
So far in October sales are down 0.6% from the September average which fell 0.8% versus August.
During the last five years there has been a 61% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in the BTM-UBSW measure of chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The BTM-UBSW retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 10/25/03 | 10/18/03 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 418.4 | 422.0 | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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